Tomorrow, the 3rd Grand Slam tournament of the year, Wimbledon, begins. Let's take a look at the draw for this tournament, and my predictions for the tournament, including who's most likely to win, and full probabilities for how likely each player is to make it to each round.
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- Iga Swiatek is the most likely to win the tournament, with a 30.76% chance of winning the whole thing, with Aryna Sabalenka next at 12.09%. The 3rd most likely is Jessica Pegula with 6.64% and Elena Rybakina is the 4th favourite with 6.49%
- On Jabeur has the easiest overall draw, as she is 0.32 percentage points more likely to win the tournament than expected. On the other hand, Maria Sakkari has a tough draw. She is 0.53 percentage points less likely to win the tournament than expected.
- The toughest 1st round draw went to Zhu Lin, as she's 44.56 percentage points less likely to win than a player of his rank is expected to win. Tamara Korpatsch got the easiest 1st round draw, as she's 40.46 percentage points more likely to make it to round 2 than his ranking would expect.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # | Name | ELO | R1 % | R2 % | R3 % | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iga Swiatek | 1974 | 91.94% | 82.91% | 74.79% | 61.56% | 50.97% | 41.28% | 30.76% |
| 2 | Zhu Lin | 1551 | 8.06% | 3.65% | 1.68% | 0.55% | 0.17% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 3 | Martina Trevisan | 1520 | 36.09% | 3.60% | 1.50% | 0.44% | 0.12% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 4 | Sara Sorribes Tormo | 1620 | 63.91% | 9.84% | 5.46% | 2.24% | 0.91% | 0.34% | 0.10% |
| 5 | Diane Parry | 1520 | 49.73% | 18.64% | 2.36% | 0.69% | 0.20% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 6 | Harriet Dart | 1522 | 50.27% | 18.97% | 2.43% | 0.71% | 0.20% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 7 | Linda Fruhvirtova | 1545 | 35.81% | 19.16% | 2.70% | 0.87% | 0.27% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 8 | Petra Martic | 1647 | 64.19% | 43.23% | 9.08% | 4.05% | 1.78% | 0.74% | 0.24% |
| 9 | Magda Linette | 1597 | 59.32% | 37.46% | 12.45% | 2.54% | 0.95% | 0.33% | 0.09% |
| 10 | Jil Teichmann | 1531 | 40.68% | 21.99% | 5.70% | 0.90% | 0.27% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 11 | Barbora Strycova | 1523 | 56.75% | 24.60% | 6.17% | 0.95% | 0.27% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 12 | Maryna Zanevska | 1476 | 43.25% | 15.95% | 3.29% | 0.42% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 13 | Danielle Collins | 1675 | 71.93% | 29.08% | 19.66% | 5.27% | 2.52% | 1.13% | 0.41% |
| 14 | Julia Grabher | 1511 | 28.07% | 6.34% | 2.87% | 0.42% | 0.11% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 15 | Katie Swan | 1447 | 12.61% | 3.37% | 1.23% | 0.14% | 0.03% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 16 | Belinda Bencic | 1783 | 87.39% | 61.21% | 48.64% | 18.24% | 11.39% | 6.80% | 3.42% |
| 17 | Daria Kasatkina | 1717 | 81.08% | 60.59% | 39.46% | 21.26% | 6.78% | 3.44% | 1.42% |
| 18 | Caroline Dolehide | 1464 | 18.92% | 7.73% | 2.51% | 0.58% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 19 | Jodie Burrage | 1518 | 47.26% | 14.43% | 5.65% | 1.62% | 0.24% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 20 | Caty McNally | 1537 | 52.74% | 17.25% | 7.18% | 2.21% | 0.36% | 0.10% | 0.02% |
| 21 | Nadia Podoroska | 1505 | 52.62% | 17.47% | 5.75% | 1.56% | 0.22% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 22 | Tereza Martincova | 1487 | 47.38% | 14.72% | 4.54% | 1.15% | 0.15% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 23 | Yuan Yue | 1464 | 22.31% | 10.12% | 2.86% | 0.66% | 0.08% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 24 | Victoria Azarenka | 1681 | 77.69% | 57.69% | 32.04% | 15.71% | 4.44% | 2.03% | 0.74% |
| 25 | Elise Mertens | 1647 | 70.16% | 36.71% | 16.41% | 8.22% | 2.06% | 0.85% | 0.28% |
| 26 | Viktoria Hruncakova | 1499 | 29.84% | 9.74% | 2.68% | 0.83% | 0.12% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 27 | Venus Williams | 1510 | 27.89% | 10.41% | 2.99% | 0.97% | 0.14% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 28 | Elina Svitolina | 1675 | 72.11% | 43.13% | 20.82% | 11.21% | 3.11% | 1.40% | 0.50% |
| 29 | Storm Hunter | 1412 | 37.58% | 5.58% | 1.27% | 0.28% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 30 | Wang Xinyu | 1500 | 62.42% | 13.83% | 4.49% | 1.40% | 0.19% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 31 | Sofia Kenin | 1598 | 26.60% | 18.04% | 8.18% | 3.56% | 0.74% | 0.26% | 0.07% |
| 32 | Coco Gauff | 1775 | 73.40% | 62.55% | 43.15% | 28.79% | 11.01% | 6.44% | 3.17% |
| 33 | Jessica Pegula | 1806 | 81.93% | 70.82% | 57.24% | 42.08% | 27.75% | 12.41% | 6.64% |
| 34 | Lauren Davis | 1543 | 18.07% | 10.57% | 5.14% | 2.00% | 0.62% | 0.11% | 0.02% |
| 35 | Cristina Bucsa | 1464 | 44.82% | 7.63% | 2.87% | 0.83% | 0.19% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 36 | Kamilla Rakhimova | 1500 | 55.18% | 10.99% | 4.67% | 1.55% | 0.40% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 37 | Camila Osorio | 1605 | 59.80% | 37.54% | 13.34% | 6.31% | 2.44% | 0.56% | 0.15% |
| 38 | Elisabetta Cocciaretto | 1536 | 40.20% | 21.36% | 6.02% | 2.28% | 0.69% | 0.12% | 0.02% |
| 39 | Rebeka Masarova | 1516 | 50.59% | 20.93% | 5.50% | 1.94% | 0.54% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 40 | Mayar Sherif | 1512 | 49.41% | 20.17% | 5.21% | 1.81% | 0.50% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| 41 | Zheng Qinwen | 1649 | 54.53% | 30.57% | 17.52% | 7.72% | 3.45% | 0.93% | 0.31% |
| 42 | Katerina Siniakova | 1618 | 45.47% | 23.50% | 12.47% | 5.02% | 2.03% | 0.49% | 0.14% |
| 43 | Lesia Tsurenko | 1647 | 68.31% | 35.37% | 20.19% | 8.85% | 3.93% | 1.06% | 0.34% |
| 44 | Claire Liu | 1514 | 31.69% | 10.55% | 4.13% | 1.18% | 0.32% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 45 | Alycia Parks | 1504 | 50.21% | 16.54% | 5.49% | 1.51% | 0.40% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 46 | Anna-Lena Friedsam | 1503 | 49.79% | 16.32% | 5.39% | 1.48% | 0.39% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 47 | Ana Bogdan | 1532 | 30.47% | 16.47% | 6.05% | 1.84% | 0.55% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 48 | Liudmila Samsonova | 1675 | 69.53% | 50.67% | 28.75% | 13.60% | 6.56% | 1.95% | 0.70% |
| 49 | Veronika Kudermetova | 1755 | 76.24% | 44.93% | 30.01% | 19.43% | 11.28% | 4.36% | 2.03% |
| 50 | Kaia Kanepi | 1553 | 23.76% | 7.62% | 3.01% | 1.13% | 0.36% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 51 | Marketa Vondrousova | 1735 | 72.97% | 39.04% | 25.09% | 15.58% | 8.64% | 3.14% | 1.37% |
| 52 | Peyton Stearns | 1563 | 27.03% | 8.41% | 3.43% | 1.33% | 0.44% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 53 | Sloane Stephens | 1606 | 58.93% | 26.02% | 9.12% | 4.05% | 1.57% | 0.36% | 0.10% |
| 54 | Rebecca Peterson | 1543 | 41.07% | 14.76% | 4.07% | 1.47% | 0.46% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 55 | Zhang Shuai | 1521 | 27.01% | 11.26% | 2.84% | 0.95% | 0.27% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 56 | Donna Vekic | 1694 | 72.99% | 47.96% | 22.42% | 12.69% | 6.35% | 2.01% | 0.77% |
| 57 | Marie Bouzkova | 1599 | 64.28% | 29.35% | 13.10% | 4.85% | 1.84% | 0.41% | 0.11% |
| 58 | Simona Waltert | 1497 | 35.72% | 11.68% | 3.70% | 0.93% | 0.24% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 59 | Anett Kontaveit | 1677 | 77.95% | 51.13% | 28.21% | 13.38% | 6.40% | 1.92% | 0.69% |
| 60 | Lucrezia Stefanini | 1458 | 22.05% | 7.85% | 2.14% | 0.45% | 0.10% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 61 | Kateryna Baindl | 1478 | 33.61% | 9.27% | 2.94% | 0.68% | 0.17% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 62 | Leylah Fernandez | 1597 | 66.39% | 27.57% | 13.00% | 4.76% | 1.79% | 0.40% | 0.11% |
| 63 | Katie Volynets | 1435 | 17.55% | 5.87% | 1.57% | 0.30% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 64 | Caroline Garcia | 1703 | 82.45% | 57.29% | 35.34% | 18.03% | 9.25% | 3.03% | 1.20% |
| 65 | Ons Jabeur | 1779 | 81.01% | 69.00% | 49.95% | 29.85% | 17.04% | 8.63% | 3.75% |
| 66 | Magdalena Frech | 1527 | 18.99% | 10.92% | 4.28% | 1.21% | 0.31% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 67 | Ysaline Bonaventure | 1453 | 44.47% | 8.12% | 2.43% | 0.51% | 0.10% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 68 | Bai Zhuoxuan | 1492 | 55.53% | 11.96% | 4.14% | 1.02% | 0.23% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 69 | Anna Bondar | 1477 | 25.50% | 9.64% | 2.41% | 0.56% | 0.12% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 70 | Bianca Andreescu | 1663 | 74.50% | 47.33% | 21.68% | 9.65% | 4.03% | 1.42% | 0.42% |
| 71 | Jessican Bouzas Maneiro | 1500 | 35.91% | 12.42% | 3.39% | 0.86% | 0.20% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 72 | Anhelina Kalinina | 1601 | 64.09% | 30.61% | 11.71% | 4.29% | 1.46% | 0.41% | 0.10% |
| 73 | Karolina Pliskova | 1683 | 75.65% | 62.16% | 28.22% | 13.92% | 6.17% | 2.33% | 0.75% |
| 74 | Natalija Stevanovic | 1486 | 24.35% | 14.55% | 3.33% | 0.85% | 0.19% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 75 | Carol Zhao | 1427 | 53.01% | 12.86% | 2.30% | 0.46% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 76 | Tamara Korpatsch | 1406 | 46.99% | 10.44% | 1.70% | 0.31% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 77 | Aliaksandra Sasnovich | 1613 | 69.27% | 22.35% | 11.70% | 4.71% | 1.67% | 0.49% | 0.12% |
| 78 | Nuria Parrizas Diaz | 1472 | 30.73% | 5.65% | 1.96% | 0.48% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 79 | Jasmine Paolini | 1541 | 18.69% | 8.58% | 3.69% | 1.17% | 0.32% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 80 | Petra Kvitova | 1796 | 81.31% | 63.42% | 47.10% | 30.15% | 17.89% | 9.47% | 4.32% |
| 81 | Beatriz Haddad Maia | 1701 | 62.81% | 45.48% | 23.62% | 11.52% | 5.39% | 2.16% | 0.74% |
| 82 | Yulia Putintseva | 1610 | 37.19% | 22.64% | 9.01% | 3.38% | 1.18% | 0.34% | 0.08% |
| 83 | Jaqueline Cristian | 1521 | 46.55% | 14.11% | 4.09% | 1.12% | 0.28% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 84 | Lucia Bronzetti | 1545 | 53.45% | 17.78% | 5.64% | 1.69% | 0.46% | 0.10% | 0.02% |
| 85 | Sorana Cirstea | 1622 | 60.76% | 23.16% | 11.40% | 4.44% | 1.62% | 0.49% | 0.13% |
| 86 | Tatjana Maria | 1546 | 39.24% | 11.51% | 4.48% | 1.35% | 0.37% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 87 | Greet Minnen | 1444 | 14.47% | 4.34% | 1.15% | 0.23% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 88 | Jelena Ostapenko | 1752 | 85.53% | 60.99% | 40.59% | 22.41% | 12.02% | 5.65% | 2.27% |
| 89 | Bernada Pera | 1596 | 74.04% | 39.00% | 12.61% | 4.88% | 1.62% | 0.44% | 0.10% |
| 90 | Viktoriya Tomova | 1413 | 25.96% | 7.30% | 1.16% | 0.22% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 91 | Katie Boulter | 1553 | 43.89% | 22.13% | 6.15% | 2.05% | 0.58% | 0.13% | 0.03% |
| 92 | Daria Saville | 1596 | 56.11% | 31.56% | 10.21% | 3.95% | 1.31% | 0.36% | 0.08% |
| 93 | Nao Hibino | 1415 | 30.77% | 3.73% | 1.08% | 0.21% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 94 | Alize Cornet | 1556 | 69.23% | 15.90% | 7.55% | 2.54% | 0.73% | 0.17% | 0.03% |
| 95 | Shelby Rogers | 1617 | 23.13% | 14.83% | 8.32% | 3.46% | 1.24% | 0.37% | 0.09% |
| 96 | Elena Rybakina | 1826 | 76.87% | 65.55% | 52.92% | 36.55% | 23.15% | 13.17% | 6.49% |
| 97 | Maria Sakkari | 1744 | 68.68% | 38.92% | 24.01% | 13.94% | 6.26% | 3.09% | 1.21% |
| 98 | Marta Kostyuk | 1607 | 31.32% | 12.02% | 5.30% | 2.12% | 0.60% | 0.19% | 0.05% |
| 99 | Alison Riske-Amritraj | 1544 | 24.36% | 7.14% | 2.58% | 0.83% | 0.18% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 100 | Paula Badosa | 1741 | 75.64% | 41.92% | 25.70% | 14.82% | 6.59% | 3.22% | 1.25% |
| 101 | Viktorija Golubic | 1536 | 60.36% | 18.55% | 5.05% | 1.59% | 0.34% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| 102 | Anna Karolina Schmiedlova | 1463 | 39.64% | 9.20% | 1.83% | 0.43% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 103 | Sonay Kartal | 1468 | 17.87% | 7.93% | 1.61% | 0.39% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 104 | Madison Keys | 1733 | 82.13% | 64.32% | 33.92% | 19.20% | 8.34% | 3.99% | 1.51% |
| 105 | Anastasia Potapova | 1693 | 73.37% | 52.03% | 26.40% | 12.62% | 4.84% | 2.06% | 0.68% |
| 106 | Celine Naef | 1517 | 26.63% | 12.51% | 3.65% | 0.94% | 0.19% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 107 | Kaja Juvan | 1529 | 47.40% | 16.24% | 4.95% | 1.34% | 0.28% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 108 | Margarita Betova | 1547 | 52.60% | 19.22% | 6.24% | 1.81% | 0.41% | 0.10% | 0.02% |
| 109 | Mirra Andreeva | 1548 | 51.61% | 14.52% | 5.93% | 1.73% | 0.39% | 0.10% | 0.02% |
| 110 | Wang Xiyu | 1537 | 48.39% | 13.04% | 5.13% | 1.44% | 0.31% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 111 | Heather Watson | 1508 | 18.22% | 8.19% | 2.91% | 0.72% | 0.14% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 112 | Barbora Krejcikova | 1768 | 81.78% | 64.25% | 44.79% | 26.06% | 12.54% | 6.61% | 2.78% |
| 113 | Karolina Muchova | 1761 | 81.22% | 62.61% | 39.57% | 18.65% | 10.47% | 5.41% | 2.23% |
| 114 | Jule Niemeier | 1506 | 18.78% | 8.40% | 2.68% | 0.53% | 0.13% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 115 | Linda Noskova | 1586 | 68.69% | 22.88% | 9.44% | 2.56% | 0.84% | 0.25% | 0.05% |
| 116 | Dalma Galfi | 1450 | 31.31% | 6.11% | 1.59% | 0.25% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 117 | Madison Brengle | 1470 | 53.06% | 12.12% | 2.99% | 0.51% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 118 | Sara Errani | 1449 | 46.94% | 9.81% | 2.22% | 0.35% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 119 | Emma Navarro | 1520 | 21.72% | 12.70% | 3.78% | 0.79% | 0.20% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 120 | Ekaterina Alexandrova | 1742 | 78.28% | 65.37% | 37.73% | 16.91% | 9.07% | 4.45% | 1.73% |
| 121 | Irina-Camelia Begu | 1650 | 71.03% | 46.53% | 13.72% | 5.86% | 2.40% | 0.88% | 0.25% |
| 122 | Rebecca Marino | 1494 | 28.97% | 12.68% | 2.00% | 0.49% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 123 | Yanina Wickmayer | 1506 | 42.19% | 15.44% | 2.57% | 0.66% | 0.16% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 124 | Anna Blinkova | 1561 | 57.81% | 25.35% | 5.30% | 1.68% | 0.50% | 0.13% | 0.03% |
| 125 | Varvara Gracheva | 1565 | 38.13% | 6.85% | 3.23% | 1.04% | 0.32% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 126 | Camila Giorgi | 1649 | 61.87% | 15.53% | 9.13% | 3.90% | 1.59% | 0.59% | 0.17% |
| 127 | Panna Udvardy | 1414 | 6.52% | 1.56% | 0.43% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 128 | Aryna Sabalenka | 1877 | 93.48% | 76.07% | 63.62% | 45.73% | 32.46% | 21.72% | 12.09% |
