The third round of Wimbledon is nearly completed, so let's take a look at how those results impacted my ratings of the players still in, and also how well I expect them to do for the rest of the tournament. For the remaining round 3 matches, I will assume the higher ranked player will win for my predictions.
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View my pre-tournament predictions for the
Men and the
Women here. Who's doing better so far, the top players, or the lower ranked players? Some stats I calculated for the top 150 players (completed R3 matches only):
| Rank | ± Men | ± Wmn |
|---|
| 1-10 | 57 | 34 |
| 11-20 | -25 | 12 |
| 21-50 | 13 | 75 |
| 51-100 | -45 | -36 |
| 101-150 | 28 | -81 |
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Now, my latest Men's ratings and predictions:
| # |
Name |
ELO |
R4 % |
R5 % |
R6 % |
R7 % |
| 1 |
Carlos Alcaraz |
1973 |
77.35% |
56.11% |
36.09% |
18.95% |
| 2 |
Matteo Berrettini |
1760 |
22.65% |
9.95% |
3.59% |
0.99% |
| 3 |
Frances Tiafoe |
1755 |
38.86% |
10.98% |
3.88% |
1.06% |
| 4 |
Holger Rune |
1833 |
61.14% |
22.96% |
10.46% |
3.72% |
| 5 |
Daniil Medvedev |
1923 |
84.23% |
58.17% |
31.15% |
14.42% |
| 6 |
Jiri Lehecka |
1632 |
15.77% |
5.02% |
0.97% |
0.16% |
| 7 |
Christopher Eubanks |
1560 |
18.39% |
2.86% |
0.39% |
0.05% |
| 8 |
Stefanos Tsitsipas |
1819 |
81.61% |
33.95% |
13.47% |
4.58% |
| 9 |
Jannik Sinner |
1813 |
86.31% |
64.18% |
18.97% |
7.20% |
| 10 |
Daniel Elahi Galan |
1493 |
13.69% |
4.42% |
0.33% |
0.03% |
| 11 |
Roman Safiullin |
1553 |
34.82% |
8.30% |
0.82% |
0.10% |
| 12 |
Denis Shapovalov |
1662 |
65.18% |
23.11% |
3.77% |
0.79% |
| 13 |
Andrey Rublev |
1820 |
71.42% |
18.62% |
11.16% |
4.34% |
| 14 |
Alexander Bublik |
1661 |
28.58% |
3.85% |
1.50% |
0.32% |
| 15 |
Hubert Hurkacz |
1724 |
12.90% |
5.53% |
2.61% |
0.71% |
| 16 |
Novak Djokovic |
2056 |
87.10% |
72.00% |
60.84% |
42.58% |
And my latest Women's ratings and predictions:
| # |
Name |
ELO |
R4 % |
R5 % |
R6 % |
R7 % |
| 1 |
Iga Swiatek |
1981 |
74.10% |
61.82% |
47.88% |
34.29% |
| 2 |
Belinda Bencic |
1798 |
25.90% |
16.51% |
9.11% |
4.33% |
| 3 |
Victoria Azarenka |
1702 |
50.51% |
11.03% |
4.62% |
1.60% |
| 4 |
Elina Svitolina |
1698 |
49.49% |
10.64% |
4.41% |
1.50% |
| 5 |
Jessica Pegula |
1816 |
69.85% |
44.20% |
17.80% |
8.90% |
| 6 |
Lesia Tsurenko |
1670 |
30.15% |
13.03% |
3.14% |
0.96% |
| 7 |
Marketa Vondrousova |
1760 |
67.69% |
32.64% |
10.96% |
4.63% |
| 8 |
Marie Bouzkova |
1631 |
32.31% |
10.13% |
2.09% |
0.55% |
| 9 |
Ons Jabeur |
1793 |
47.82% |
23.55% |
11.27% |
4.54% |
| 10 |
Petra Kvitova |
1808 |
52.18% |
26.81% |
13.39% |
5.65% |
| 11 |
Beatriz Haddad Maia |
1722 |
33.98% |
13.20% |
5.05% |
1.60% |
| 12 |
Elena Rybakina |
1837 |
66.02% |
36.45% |
19.66% |
9.02% |
| 13 |
Madison Keys |
1748 |
55.40% |
20.57% |
8.66% |
3.01% |
| 14 |
Anastasia Potapova |
1710 |
44.60% |
14.43% |
5.34% |
1.62% |
| 15 |
Ekaterina Alexandrova |
1754 |
32.08% |
17.06% |
7.31% |
2.59% |
| 16 |
Aryna Sabalenka |
1884 |
67.92% |
47.94% |
29.32% |
15.22% |
