We're still schedule, now that round 2 of Wimbledon is completed, let's take a look at how those results impacted my ratings of the players still in, and also how well I expect them to do for the rest of the tournament. For now, I'm ignoring completed round 3 matches.
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View my pre-tournament predictions for the
Men and the
Women here. Who's doing better so far, the top players, or the lower ranked players? Some stats I calculated for the top 150 players (completed R2 matches only):
| Rank |
± Men |
± Wmn |
| 1-10 |
46 |
6 |
| 11-20 |
-37 |
3 |
| 21-50 |
48 |
88 |
| 51-100 |
-65 |
-19 |
| 101-150 |
32 |
-78 |
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Now, my latest Men's ratings and predictions:
| # |
Name |
ELO |
R3 % |
R4 % |
R5 % |
R6 % |
R7 % |
| 1 |
Carlos Alcaraz |
1970 |
85.44% |
62.12% |
46.86% |
31.60% |
17.04% |
| 2 |
Nicolas Jarry |
1663 |
14.56% |
4.61% |
1.63% |
0.47% |
0.10% |
| 3 |
Alexander Zverev |
1830 |
61.59% |
22.68% |
13.20% |
6.53% |
2.43% |
| 4 |
Matteo Berrettini |
1748 |
38.41% |
10.59% |
4.95% |
1.93% |
0.55% |
| 5 |
Frances Tiafoe |
1745 |
52.62% |
23.63% |
7.10% |
2.74% |
0.78% |
| 6 |
Grigor Dimitrov |
1727 |
47.38% |
20.12% |
5.64% |
2.05% |
0.55% |
| 7 |
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina |
1648 |
26.22% |
9.86% |
2.00% |
0.55% |
0.11% |
| 8 |
Holger Rune |
1828 |
73.78% |
46.39% |
18.61% |
9.17% |
3.40% |
| 9 |
Daniil Medvedev |
1920 |
83.72% |
68.04% |
49.89% |
27.98% |
13.38% |
| 10 |
Marton Fucsovics |
1635 |
16.28% |
7.54% |
2.90% |
0.63% |
0.12% |
| 11 |
Jiri Lehecka |
1600 |
36.47% |
6.84% |
2.34% |
0.44% |
0.07% |
| 12 |
Tommy Paul |
1696 |
63.53% |
17.58% |
8.09% |
2.26% |
0.54% |
| 13 |
Christopher Eubanks |
1550 |
50.06% |
11.78% |
2.16% |
0.32% |
0.04% |
| 14 |
Christopher O'Connell |
1550 |
49.94% |
11.73% |
2.15% |
0.32% |
0.04% |
| 15 |
Laslo Djere |
1601 |
22.68% |
13.01% |
2.95% |
0.55% |
0.09% |
| 16 |
Stefanos Tsitsipas |
1814 |
77.32% |
63.47% |
29.53% |
12.44% |
4.42% |
| 17 |
Jannik Sinner |
1810 |
85.73% |
70.72% |
54.91% |
17.57% |
7.07% |
| 18 |
Quentin Halys |
1499 |
14.27% |
6.36% |
2.41% |
0.22% |
0.02% |
| 19 |
Daniel Elahi Galan |
1480 |
37.27% |
6.69% |
2.38% |
0.20% |
0.02% |
| 20 |
Mikael Ymer |
1571 |
62.73% |
16.23% |
7.75% |
0.98% |
0.15% |
| 21 |
Guido Pella |
1518 |
46.28% |
17.11% |
4.29% |
0.42% |
0.05% |
| 22 |
Roman Safiullin |
1544 |
53.72% |
21.69% |
5.98% |
0.67% |
0.09% |
| 23 |
Denis Shapovalov |
1656 |
68.46% |
45.93% |
18.42% |
3.34% |
0.76% |
| 24 |
Liam Broady |
1521 |
31.54% |
15.28% |
3.87% |
0.39% |
0.05% |
| 25 |
Andrey Rublev |
1817 |
81.77% |
61.88% |
18.34% |
11.63% |
4.78% |
| 26 |
David Goffin |
1556 |
18.23% |
7.78% |
0.82% |
0.25% |
0.04% |
| 27 |
Alexander Bublik |
1657 |
76.47% |
26.73% |
4.35% |
1.88% |
0.43% |
| 28 |
Maximilian Marterer |
1452 |
23.53% |
3.62% |
0.23% |
0.05% |
0.00% |
| 29 |
Lorenzo Musetti |
1692 |
46.73% |
7.08% |
3.06% |
1.45% |
0.38% |
| 30 |
Hubert Hurkacz |
1714 |
53.27% |
8.88% |
4.10% |
2.07% |
0.59% |
| 31 |
Stan Wawrinka |
1658 |
9.30% |
4.04% |
1.57% |
0.68% |
0.16% |
| 32 |
Novak Djokovic |
2054 |
90.70% |
80.00% |
67.53% |
58.20% |
41.75% |
And my latest Women's ratings and predictions:
| # |
Name |
ELO |
R3 % |
R4 % |
R5 % |
R6 % |
R7 % |
| 1 |
Iga Swiatek |
1978 |
86.13% |
67.39% |
56.42% |
44.50% |
32.26% |
| 2 |
Petra Martic |
1661 |
13.87% |
5.32% |
2.43% |
0.95% |
0.30% |
| 3 |
Magda Linette |
1613 |
26.20% |
4.03% |
1.57% |
0.52% |
0.13% |
| 4 |
Belinda Bencic |
1793 |
73.80% |
23.26% |
14.91% |
8.50% |
4.12% |
| 5 |
Daria Kasatkina |
1726 |
54.99% |
32.41% |
9.07% |
4.34% |
1.71% |
| 6 |
Victoria Azarenka |
1691 |
45.01% |
24.33% |
5.96% |
2.56% |
0.89% |
| 7 |
Elina Svitolina |
1690 |
59.96% |
28.29% |
6.91% |
2.97% |
1.03% |
| 8 |
Sofia Kenin |
1620 |
40.04% |
14.97% |
2.74% |
0.93% |
0.25% |
| 9 |
Jessica Pegula |
1812 |
81.25% |
60.26% |
38.40% |
16.42% |
8.40% |
| 10 |
Elisabetta Cocciaretto |
1557 |
18.75% |
7.60% |
2.22% |
0.38% |
0.08% |
| 11 |
Lesia Tsurenko |
1663 |
65.09% |
23.64% |
10.15% |
2.64% |
0.83% |
| 12 |
Ana Bogdan |
1555 |
34.91% |
8.50% |
2.46% |
0.41% |
0.08% |
| 13 |
Marketa Vondrousova |
1751 |
56.33% |
33.81% |
17.51% |
6.21% |
2.66% |
| 14 |
Donna Vekic |
1707 |
43.67% |
23.54% |
10.81% |
3.30% |
1.22% |
| 15 |
Marie Bouzkova |
1619 |
36.61% |
12.57% |
4.36% |
0.95% |
0.25% |
| 16 |
Caroline Garcia |
1714 |
63.39% |
30.08% |
14.10% |
4.42% |
1.67% |
| 17 |
Ons Jabeur |
1786 |
65.32% |
34.47% |
18.16% |
8.99% |
3.76% |
| 18 |
Bianca Andreescu |
1676 |
34.68% |
13.32% |
5.06% |
1.78% |
0.51% |
| 19 |
Natalija Stevanovic |
1509 |
15.35% |
3.16% |
0.62% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
| 20 |
Petra Kvitova |
1805 |
84.65% |
49.05% |
27.11% |
14.11% |
6.23% |
| 21 |
Beatriz Haddad Maia |
1714 |
60.03% |
23.97% |
10.00% |
3.99% |
1.32% |
| 22 |
Sorana Cirstea |
1643 |
39.97% |
12.55% |
4.09% |
1.28% |
0.33% |
| 23 |
Katie Boulter |
1570 |
18.00% |
6.14% |
1.50% |
0.35% |
0.07% |
| 24 |
Elena Rybakina |
1834 |
82.00% |
57.34% |
33.45% |
18.69% |
8.93% |
| 25 |
Marta Kostyuk |
1635 |
35.13% |
16.19% |
4.40% |
1.33% |
0.33% |
| 26 |
Madison Keys |
1741 |
64.87% |
39.44% |
15.68% |
6.89% |
2.50% |
| 27 |
Anastasia Potapova |
1704 |
67.96% |
34.00% |
11.93% |
4.65% |
1.49% |
| 28 |
Mirra Andreeva |
1573 |
32.04% |
10.38% |
2.20% |
0.52% |
0.10% |
| 29 |
Dalma Galfi |
1475 |
17.06% |
2.19% |
0.49% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 30 |
Ekaterina Alexandrova |
1750 |
82.94% |
31.66% |
18.29% |
8.26% |
3.09% |
| 31 |
Anna Blinkova |
1582 |
15.16% |
5.13% |
1.78% |
0.43% |
0.09% |
| 32 |
Aryna Sabalenka |
1881 |
84.84% |
61.02% |
45.23% |
28.55% |
15.36% |
