The 2nd round of the US Open is now complete, so let's take a look at how that affected my rankings of the players still in and also how well I expect them to do for the rest of the tournament.
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View my pre-tournament predictions for the Men and the Women here, but before the latest rankings, some stats I calculated for the top 150 players:
| Rank | ± Men | ± Wmn |
|---|---|---|
| 1-10 | 3 | 49 |
| 11-20 | 1 | 7 |
| 21-50 | -6 | -43 |
| 51-100 | -33 | 17 |
| 101-150 | -13 | -18 |
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Now, my latest Men's ratings and predictions:
| # | Name | ELO | R3 % | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Alcaraz | 1996 | 90.52% | 79.16% | 58.13% | 41.90% | 21.57% |
| 2 | Daniel Evans | 1604 | 9.48% | 4.11% | 0.96% | 0.23% | 0.03% |
| 3 | Matteo Arnaldi | 1563 | 32.12% | 3.56% | 0.69% | 0.14% | 0.02% |
| 4 | Cameron Norrie | 1693 | 67.88% | 13.16% | 4.40% | 1.47% | 0.31% |
| 5 | Alexander Zverev | 1851 | 65.41% | 37.67% | 14.93% | 8.06% | 2.83% |
| 6 | Grigor Dimitrov | 1741 | 34.59% | 14.67% | 4.06% | 1.60% | 0.39% |
| 7 | Stan Wawrinka | 1681 | 28.59% | 9.22% | 2.06% | 0.66% | 0.13% |
| 8 | Jannik Sinner | 1840 | 71.41% | 38.44% | 14.75% | 7.75% | 2.63% |
| 9 | Daniil Medvedev | 1908 | 81.86% | 60.71% | 43.26% | 21.06% | 8.67% |
| 10 | Sebastian Baez | 1646 | 18.14% | 7.16% | 2.71% | 0.52% | 0.09% |
| 11 | Nicolas Jarry | 1660 | 36.49% | 9.24% | 3.67% | 0.75% | 0.14% |
| 12 | Alex De Minaur | 1757 | 63.51% | 22.88% | 11.97% | 3.59% | 0.93% |
| 13 | Michael Mmoh | 1540 | 32.79% | 7.51% | 1.29% | 0.15% | 0.02% |
| 14 | Jack Draper | 1664 | 67.21% | 24.46% | 7.07% | 1.47% | 0.28% |
| 15 | Arthur Rinderknech | 1545 | 17.70% | 6.93% | 1.22% | 0.15% | 0.02% |
| 16 | Andrey Rublev | 1812 | 82.30% | 61.10% | 28.81% | 10.50% | 3.27% |
| 17 | Zhang Zhizhen | 1559 | 52.46% | 16.40% | 5.95% | 0.62% | 0.08% |
| 18 | Rinky Hijikata | 1542 | 47.54% | 13.89% | 4.74% | 0.46% | 0.06% |
| 19 | Adrian Mannarino | 1658 | 40.54% | 26.29% | 13.00% | 2.04% | 0.43% |
| 20 | Frances Tiafoe | 1724 | 59.46% | 43.42% | 25.41% | 5.15% | 1.42% |
| 21 | Tommy Paul | 1725 | 56.68% | 41.60% | 24.79% | 5.04% | 1.39% |
| 22 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 1679 | 43.32% | 29.39% | 15.66% | 2.67% | 0.61% |
| 23 | Ben Shelton | 1524 | 43.65% | 11.39% | 3.72% | 0.33% | 0.04% |
| 24 | Aslan Karatsev | 1568 | 56.35% | 17.63% | 6.74% | 0.73% | 0.10% |
| 25 | Dominic Stricker | 1565 | 50.16% | 14.83% | 1.47% | 0.52% | 0.07% |
| 26 | Benjamin Bonzi | 1564 | 49.84% | 14.68% | 1.44% | 0.51% | 0.07% |
| 27 | Jakub Mensik | 1521 | 19.04% | 8.33% | 0.69% | 0.21% | 0.02% |
| 28 | Taylor Fritz | 1773 | 80.96% | 62.16% | 13.38% | 8.50% | 2.80% |
| 29 | Borna Gojo | 1474 | 42.36% | 2.08% | 0.50% | 0.12% | 0.01% |
| 30 | Jiri Vesely | 1528 | 57.64% | 3.68% | 1.09% | 0.34% | 0.04% |
| 31 | Laslo Djere | 1645 | 7.71% | 5.32% | 2.33% | 1.07% | 0.21% |
| 32 | Novak Djokovic | 2076 | 92.29% | 88.93% | 79.10% | 71.68% | 51.30% |
And my latest Women's ratings and predictions:
| # | Name | ELO | R3 % | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iga Swiatek | 1974 | 91.99% | 75.78% | 57.40% | 42.84% | 30.50% |
| 2 | Kaja Juvan | 1550 | 8.01% | 2.47% | 0.58% | 0.13% | 0.02% |
| 3 | Jelena Ostapenko | 1742 | 73.05% | 18.41% | 8.60% | 3.85% | 1.56% |
| 4 | Bernada Pera | 1569 | 26.95% | 3.34% | 0.84% | 0.20% | 0.04% |
| 5 | Caroline Wozniacki | 1702 | 53.74% | 20.18% | 5.10% | 2.02% | 0.71% |
| 6 | Jennifer Brady | 1676 | 46.26% | 15.86% | 3.63% | 1.31% | 0.42% |
| 7 | Elise Mertens | 1649 | 24.82% | 10.95% | 2.25% | 0.74% | 0.21% |
| 8 | Coco Gauff | 1841 | 75.18% | 53.00% | 21.60% | 12.62% | 6.84% |
| 9 | Elena Rybakina | 1838 | 73.78% | 46.57% | 31.01% | 13.39% | 7.19% |
| 10 | Sorana Cirstea | 1658 | 26.22% | 10.28% | 4.53% | 1.04% | 0.31% |
| 11 | Zhu Lin | 1574 | 22.84% | 5.31% | 1.80% | 0.29% | 0.06% |
| 12 | Belinda Bencic | 1786 | 77.16% | 37.85% | 22.78% | 8.34% | 3.87% |
| 13 | Karolina Muchova | 1788 | 81.43% | 67.32% | 33.74% | 12.46% | 5.83% |
| 14 | Taylor Townsend | 1531 | 18.57% | 9.69% | 1.90% | 0.25% | 0.04% |
| 15 | Wang Xinyu | 1534 | 55.68% | 13.71% | 2.71% | 0.36% | 0.06% |
| 16 | Anna Karolina Schmiedlova | 1494 | 44.32% | 9.28% | 1.53% | 0.17% | 0.02% |
| 17 | Katie Boulter | 1586 | 52.70% | 12.53% | 3.15% | 0.72% | 0.13% |
| 18 | Peyton Stearns | 1568 | 47.30% | 10.35% | 2.40% | 0.50% | 0.08% |
| 19 | Ekaterina Alexandrova | 1755 | 41.56% | 30.57% | 14.22% | 6.03% | 2.11% |
| 20 | Marketa Vondrousova | 1815 | 58.44% | 46.54% | 25.50% | 12.86% | 5.47% |
| 21 | Liudmila Samsonova | 1728 | 48.71% | 19.17% | 9.17% | 3.57% | 1.14% |
| 22 | Madison Keys | 1737 | 51.29% | 20.80% | 10.20% | 4.09% | 1.34% |
| 23 | Elina Svitolina | 1728 | 33.89% | 16.72% | 7.99% | 3.11% | 0.99% |
| 24 | Jessica Pegula | 1844 | 66.11% | 43.31% | 27.38% | 14.92% | 6.93% |
| 25 | Ons Jabeur | 1827 | 71.54% | 52.68% | 26.97% | 15.26% | 6.74% |
| 26 | Marie Bouzkova | 1667 | 28.46% | 15.19% | 4.68% | 1.63% | 0.41% |
| 27 | Zheng Qinwen | 1687 | 70.70% | 26.23% | 8.69% | 3.25% | 0.88% |
| 28 | Lucia Bronzetti | 1534 | 29.30% | 5.91% | 1.06% | 0.22% | 0.03% |
| 29 | Daria Kasatkina | 1739 | 83.05% | 30.39% | 14.76% | 6.56% | 2.17% |
| 30 | Greet Minnen | 1463 | 16.95% | 2.05% | 0.36% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 31 | Clara Burel | 1570 | 14.29% | 4.83% | 1.33% | 0.32% | 0.05% |
| 32 | Aryna Sabalenka | 1881 | 85.71% | 62.73% | 42.14% | 26.91% | 13.82% |
