The Indian Wells tournament is one of the biggest of the year outside of the Grand Slams, so I'm here with a preview and predictions for how the Men's bracket will turn out. After the jump, I present a table for percentages for all 96 players competing and how they will do.
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| Indian Wells logo, © BNP Paribas Open |
But before the full table, some highlights I want to pick out.
- Novak Djokovic is the favourite to win the title, as he has a 30.26% chance of winning the tournament, Rafael Nadal is 2nd favourite with 25.16%, Roger Federer 3rd with 18.47% and Alexander Zverev 4th with 4.73%
- Marco Cecchinato has a really easy draw compared to other players with a similar ELO rating. I have him as the 37th most likely winner, while he is only the 53rd highest ranked player here.
- On the other hand, Daniel Evans has a tough draw. He is the 54th most likely winner, but is the 42nd highest ranked player competing. Evans also has the toughest 1st round draw, as he's the 96th most likely player to progress to round 2.
- Bjorn Fratangelo has the easiest 1st round draw. He's the 92nd best player at the tournament, but is the 44th most likely player to make it to round 2.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow
@tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # |
Name |
ELO |
R1 % |
R2 % |
R3 % |
R4 % |
R5 % |
R6 % |
R7 % |
| 1 |
Novak Djokovic |
1998 |
100.00% |
96.56% |
81.55% |
71.03% |
61.41% |
48.61% |
30.26% |
| 2 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 3 |
Bjorn Fratangelo |
1442 |
58.82% |
2.30% |
0.45% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 4 |
Elias Ymer |
1380 |
41.18% |
1.14% |
0.17% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 5 |
Pierre-Hugues Herbert |
1603 |
50.55% |
15.85% |
1.83% |
0.81% |
0.33% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
| 6 |
Philipp Kohlschreiber |
1599 |
49.45% |
15.27% |
1.73% |
0.76% |
0.31% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| 7 |
Nick Kyrgios |
1739 |
100.00% |
68.88% |
14.27% |
8.85% |
5.29% |
2.50% |
0.75% |
| 8 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 9 |
Gael Monfils |
1731 |
100.00% |
76.43% |
58.00% |
14.08% |
8.25% |
3.80% |
1.10% |
| 10 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 11 |
Reilly Opelka |
1535 |
52.58% |
12.86% |
6.50% |
0.68% |
0.22% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 12 |
Leonardo Mayer |
1517 |
47.42% |
10.71% |
5.14% |
0.50% |
0.15% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 13 |
Damir Dzumhur |
1539 |
57.01% |
28.42% |
8.89% |
0.95% |
0.31% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 14 |
Albert Ramos Vinolas |
1490 |
42.99% |
18.42% |
4.77% |
0.40% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 15 |
Marco Cecchinato |
1540 |
100.00% |
53.17% |
16.70% |
1.80% |
0.59% |
0.14% |
0.02% |
| 16 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 17 |
Borna Coric |
1716 |
100.00% |
77.09% |
51.31% |
30.44% |
8.21% |
3.62% |
0.99% |
| 18 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 19 |
Ivo Karlovic |
1493 |
46.58% |
10.07% |
3.65% |
1.10% |
0.12% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 20 |
Matthew Ebden |
1516 |
53.42% |
12.84% |
5.05% |
1.67% |
0.20% |
0.04% |
0.00% |
| 21 |
Prajnesh Gunneswaran |
1458 |
37.45% |
10.11% |
2.43% |
0.64% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 22 |
Benoit Paire |
1547 |
62.55% |
23.87% |
8.09% |
2.97% |
0.41% |
0.10% |
0.01% |
| 23 |
Nikoloz Basilashvili |
1631 |
100.00% |
66.03% |
29.47% |
14.07% |
2.75% |
0.91% |
0.18% |
| 24 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 25 |
Gilles Simon |
1610 |
100.00% |
69.67% |
29.49% |
12.97% |
2.33% |
0.71% |
0.13% |
| 26 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 27 |
Bradley Klahn |
1463 |
49.27% |
14.79% |
3.72% |
0.96% |
0.09% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 28 |
Malek Jaziri |
1468 |
50.73% |
15.54% |
3.99% |
1.06% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 29 |
Federico Delbonis |
1485 |
56.08% |
11.93% |
4.63% |
1.31% |
0.14% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 30 |
Jordan Thompson |
1442 |
43.92% |
7.67% |
2.56% |
0.61% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 31 |
Dominic Thiem |
1712 |
100.00% |
80.39% |
55.61% |
32.20% |
8.54% |
3.71% |
1.00% |
| 32 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 33 |
Alexander Zverev |
1833 |
100.00% |
81.83% |
59.00% |
42.84% |
26.68% |
11.60% |
4.73% |
| 34 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 35 |
Martin Klizan |
1606 |
67.12% |
14.31% |
6.01% |
2.56% |
0.82% |
0.17% |
0.03% |
| 36 |
Mischa Zverev |
1482 |
32.88% |
3.85% |
1.02% |
0.28% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 37 |
John Millman |
1567 |
47.16% |
14.74% |
3.44% |
1.29% |
0.36% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 38 |
Jan-Lennard Struff |
1587 |
52.84% |
17.84% |
4.51% |
1.81% |
0.54% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
| 39 |
Grigor Dimitrov |
1704 |
100.00% |
67.42% |
26.01% |
14.63% |
6.55% |
1.92% |
0.50% |
| 40 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 41 |
Alex De Minaur |
1657 |
100.00% |
65.02% |
31.21% |
11.25% |
4.33% |
1.07% |
0.23% |
| 42 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 43 |
Marcos Giron |
1499 |
38.74% |
11.13% |
3.09% |
0.60% |
0.13% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 44 |
Jeremy Chardy |
1579 |
61.26% |
23.85% |
8.92% |
2.41% |
0.70% |
0.13% |
0.02% |
| 45 |
Matteo Berrettini |
1541 |
42.04% |
11.38% |
4.43% |
1.03% |
0.26% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 46 |
Sam Querrey |
1596 |
57.96% |
19.62% |
9.13% |
2.64% |
0.82% |
0.16% |
0.03% |
| 47 |
Milos Raonic |
1713 |
100.00% |
68.99% |
43.22% |
18.67% |
8.59% |
2.59% |
0.70% |
| 48 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 49 |
Stefanos Tsitsipas |
1740 |
100.00% |
73.54% |
40.50% |
21.48% |
10.73% |
3.55% |
1.06% |
| 50 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 51 |
Felix Auger-Aliassime |
1531 |
42.50% |
9.83% |
2.80% |
0.79% |
0.19% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 52 |
Cameron Norrie |
1584 |
57.50% |
16.63% |
5.74% |
1.94% |
0.58% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
| 53 |
Denis Kudla |
1458 |
36.34% |
5.80% |
1.25% |
0.27% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 54 |
Yoshihito Nishioka |
1556 |
63.66% |
15.90% |
5.06% |
1.55% |
0.42% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 55 |
Roberto Bautista Agut |
1747 |
100.00% |
78.29% |
44.66% |
24.06% |
12.24% |
4.13% |
1.27% |
| 56 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 57 |
Laslo Djere |
1545 |
100.00% |
60.27% |
15.12% |
4.21% |
1.09% |
0.17% |
0.02% |
| 58 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 59 |
Ilya Ivashka |
1496 |
58.09% |
24.97% |
5.15% |
1.17% |
0.25% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 60 |
Guido Andreozzi |
1440 |
41.91% |
14.77% |
2.39% |
0.42% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 61 |
Maximilian Marterer |
1423 |
37.76% |
4.04% |
1.49% |
0.24% |
0.04% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 62 |
Ugo Humbert |
1510 |
62.24% |
10.25% |
5.01% |
1.20% |
0.27% |
0.04% |
0.00% |
| 63 |
Kevin Anderson |
1792 |
100.00% |
85.71% |
70.85% |
42.66% |
24.26% |
9.39% |
3.36% |
| 64 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 65 |
Kei Nishikori |
1812 |
100.00% |
84.85% |
67.33% |
44.27% |
19.65% |
8.49% |
3.59% |
| 66 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 67 |
Tennys Sandgren |
1505 |
48.03% |
7.02% |
2.86% |
0.77% |
0.12% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 68 |
Adrian Mannarino |
1519 |
51.97% |
8.13% |
3.46% |
0.99% |
0.16% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 69 |
Donald Young |
1490 |
51.50% |
16.97% |
3.15% |
0.80% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 70 |
Hubert Hurkacz |
1480 |
48.50% |
15.34% |
2.73% |
0.67% |
0.09% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 71 |
Lucas Pouille |
1613 |
100.00% |
67.69% |
20.47% |
8.15% |
1.91% |
0.43% |
0.09% |
| 72 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 73 |
Denis Shapovalov |
1598 |
100.00% |
53.54% |
18.18% |
5.95% |
1.32% |
0.28% |
0.05% |
| 74 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 75 |
Taylor Fritz |
1572 |
49.70% |
23.01% |
7.13% |
2.13% |
0.43% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
| 76 |
Steve Johnson |
1574 |
50.30% |
23.44% |
7.32% |
2.21% |
0.44% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| 77 |
Taro Daniel |
1458 |
40.11% |
5.85% |
1.90% |
0.36% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 78 |
Dusan Lajovic |
1528 |
59.89% |
12.18% |
5.08% |
1.29% |
0.22% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 79 |
Marin Cilic |
1765 |
100.00% |
81.97% |
60.39% |
32.40% |
12.61% |
4.77% |
1.75% |
| 80 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 81 |
Fabio Fognini |
1644 |
100.00% |
67.14% |
35.63% |
7.97% |
2.93% |
0.74% |
0.18% |
| 82 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 83 |
Marius Copil |
1498 |
44.50% |
13.43% |
4.47% |
0.54% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 84 |
Radu Albot |
1537 |
55.50% |
19.44% |
7.44% |
1.07% |
0.26% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 85 |
Nicolas Jarry |
1500 |
40.71% |
11.53% |
4.13% |
0.50% |
0.11% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 86 |
Frances Tiafoe |
1565 |
59.29% |
21.65% |
9.64% |
1.56% |
0.43% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
| 87 |
Kyle Edmund |
1661 |
100.00% |
66.82% |
38.69% |
9.24% |
3.59% |
0.96% |
0.24% |
| 88 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 89 |
Marton Fucsovics |
1628 |
100.00% |
44.40% |
7.77% |
3.94% |
1.37% |
0.33% |
0.07% |
| 90 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 91 |
Daniel Evans |
1573 |
31.16% |
13.13% |
1.82% |
0.78% |
0.22% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 92 |
Stan Wawrinka |
1711 |
68.84% |
42.47% |
10.35% |
6.43% |
2.92% |
0.93% |
0.29% |
| 93 |
Peter Gojowczyk |
1530 |
43.25% |
3.44% |
1.13% |
0.42% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 94 |
Andreas Seppi |
1577 |
56.75% |
5.78% |
2.25% |
0.98% |
0.28% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 95 |
Roger Federer |
1955 |
100.00% |
90.78% |
76.68% |
66.55% |
50.55% |
30.67% |
18.47% |
| 96 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 97 |
John Isner |
1661 |
100.00% |
69.54% |
44.34% |
22.37% |
5.14% |
1.41% |
0.36% |
| 98 |
bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 99 |
Jaume Munar |
1545 |
59.82% |
20.20% |
9.62% |
3.33% |
0.47% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
| 100 |
Alexei Popyrin |
1475 |
40.18% |
10.25% |
3.90% |
1.03% |
0.11% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 101 |
Ernests Gulbis |
1534 |
63.77% |
26.54% |
10.19% |
3.40% |
0.46% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 102 |
Alex Bolt |
1436 |
36.23% |
10.45% |
2.77% |
0.62% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 103 |
Guido Pella |
1593 |
100.00% |
63.01% |
29.18% |
11.96% |
2.09% |
0.44% |
0.08% |
| 104 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 105 |
Pablo Carreno Busta |
1632 |
100.00% |
69.47% |
29.40% |
15.83% |
3.24% |
0.79% |
0.18% |
| 106 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 107 |
Robin Haase |
1503 |
54.39% |
17.53% |
4.57% |
1.65% |
0.19% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 108 |
Denis Istomin |
1472 |
45.61% |
13.00% |
2.97% |
0.96% |
0.10% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 109 |
Tomas Berdych |
1689 |
66.74% |
31.80% |
20.21% |
12.45% |
3.18% |
0.96% |
0.27% |
| 110 |
Feliciano Lopez |
1568 |
33.26% |
10.38% |
4.88% |
2.19% |
0.34% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 111 |
Karen Khachanov |
1705 |
100.00% |
57.82% |
37.96% |
24.20% |
6.56% |
2.11% |
0.63% |
| 112 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 113 |
Daniil Medvedev |
1761 |
100.00% |
79.13% |
50.46% |
14.99% |
9.85% |
3.81% |
1.38% |
| 114 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 115 |
Mackenzie McDonald |
1524 |
48.42% |
9.84% |
3.16% |
0.38% |
0.13% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 116 |
Joao Sousa |
1535 |
51.58% |
11.02% |
3.68% |
0.46% |
0.16% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 117 |
Mikhail Kukushkin |
1562 |
53.32% |
16.38% |
4.99% |
0.70% |
0.27% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 118 |
Filip Krajinovic |
1539 |
46.68% |
13.05% |
3.64% |
0.46% |
0.16% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 119 |
David Goffin |
1703 |
100.00% |
70.57% |
34.07% |
8.26% |
4.79% |
1.53% |
0.45% |
| 120 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 121 |
Diego Schwartzman |
1620 |
100.00% |
65.70% |
9.44% |
3.58% |
1.66% |
0.39% |
0.08% |
| 122 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 123 |
Roberto Carballes Baena |
1482 |
43.75% |
13.63% |
1.07% |
0.24% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 124 |
Ryan Harrison |
1525 |
56.25% |
20.68% |
1.97% |
0.53% |
0.18% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 125 |
Tatsuma Ito |
1442 |
41.27% |
1.81% |
0.57% |
0.11% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 126 |
Jared Donaldson |
1503 |
58.73% |
3.59% |
1.41% |
0.34% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 127 |
Rafael Nadal |
1978 |
100.00% |
94.60% |
85.54% |
69.95% |
60.67% |
39.97% |
25.16% |
| 128 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
