We're down to the last 16, so I'm going to update my Miami predictions, but firstly, after the jump, a look at how the early rounds went.
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- Of the 4 favourites for the title before the tournament, 2 of them are still in. Alexander Zverev lost to David Ferrer in round 2, and Kei Nishikori lost to Dusan Lajovic in the same round.
- Whilst Marco Cecchinato had the easiest overall draw, this didn't help him to victory, as he lost to David Goffin in the 3rd round. Filip Krajinovic and Radu Albot had the toughest overall draws and both players ended up losing to Roger Federer, in round 3 and round 2 respectively.
- Ilya Ivashka had the easiest 1st round draws, and won as expected against Thomas Fabbiano before losing to Kyle Edmund in round 2. Filip Krajinovic also had the toughest 1st round draw, and unexpectedly won his match against Pierre-Hugues Herbert.
But what about the future? Let's take a look at what the rest of the tournament looks like.
- Novak Djokovic the favourite to win the title with a 38.23% chance, Roger Federer is the 2nd favourite at 29.58%, Kevin Anderson is 3rd at 7.97%, and Stefanos Tsitsipas 4th most likely with 4.17%.
- The easiest draw relative to his ranking has gone to Stefanos Tsitsipas. He is 3 places more likely to win than his ranking suggests.
- On the other hand, Roberto Bautista Agut and Daniil Medvedev have the toughest draws relative to their ranking, as they're the 9th and 8th most likely to win while having the 5th and 4th highest ranking of the remaining players. They also share in having the toughest round 4 match, as they're the 15th and 14th most likely to win their next matches.
- The player with the easiest next match compared to their ranking is Nikoloz Basilashvili. He's the 6th most likely to make it to the quarter finals, while he's the 12th highest ranked player remaining.
Now, the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow
@tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # |
Name |
ELO |
R4 % |
R5 % |
R6 % |
R7 % |
| 1 |
Novak Djokovic |
1984 |
80.04% |
68.00% |
57.30% |
38.23% |
| 2 |
Roberto Bautista Agut |
1743 |
19.96% |
11.68% |
6.75% |
2.46% |
| 3 |
Kyle Edmund |
1688 |
51.38% |
10.65% |
5.34% |
1.61% |
| 4 |
John Isner |
1678 |
48.62% |
9.67% |
4.72% |
1.37% |
| 5 |
Felix Auger-Aliassime |
1579 |
42.72% |
12.90% |
2.13% |
0.42% |
| 6 |
Nikoloz Basilashvili |
1630 |
57.28% |
21.03% |
4.31% |
1.04% |
| 7 |
Borna Coric |
1712 |
46.65% |
30.08% |
8.46% |
2.79% |
| 8 |
Nick Kyrgios |
1736 |
53.35% |
35.99% |
11.00% |
3.92% |
| 9 |
Kevin Anderson |
1799 |
85.19% |
29.26% |
19.05% |
7.97% |
| 10 |
Jordan Thompson |
1495 |
14.81% |
1.33% |
0.34% |
0.04% |
| 11 |
Daniil Medvedev |
1759 |
23.44% |
11.69% |
6.99% |
2.60% |
| 12 |
Roger Federer |
1965 |
76.56% |
57.71% |
47.71% |
29.58% |
| 13 |
Stefanos Tsitsipas |
1735 |
65.18% |
39.52% |
12.10% |
4.17% |
| 14 |
Denis Shapovalov |
1626 |
34.82% |
15.87% |
3.13% |
0.73% |
| 15 |
David Goffin |
1699 |
67.43% |
33.84% |
9.01% |
2.75% |
| 16 |
Frances Tiafoe |
1572 |
32.57% |
10.77% |
1.67% |
0.31% |
