We're down to the last 16, so I'm going to update my Indian Wells predictions, but firstly, after the jump, a look at how the early rounds went.
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Indian Wells logo, © BNP Paribas Open
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- Of the 4 favourites for the title before the tournament, 3 of them are still in. Serena Williams lost to Garbine Muguruza in round 3.
- Whilst Danielle Collins had the easiest overall draw, this didn't help her to victory, as she lost to Naomi Osaka in the 3rd round. Andrea Petkovic and Vera Lapko had the toughest overall draws and lost to Venus Williams and Victoria Azarenka, both in round 1.
- All 3 of the players who had the easiest 1st round draw unexpectedly lost their round 1 matches. Wang Yafan had the toughest 1st round draw, and lost as expected to Sofia Kenin.
But what about the future? Let's take a look at what the rest of the tournament looks like.
- Simona Halep is now the favourite to win the title with a 16.94% chance, Karolina Pliskova is the 2nd favourite at 13.03%, Elina Svitolina is 3rd at 9.86%, and Ashleigh Barty 4th most likely with 8.89%.
- The easiest draw relative to her ranking has gone to Venus Williams. She is the 6th most likely winner, but she is the 9th highest ranked player in the tournament.
- On the other hand, Aryna Sabalenka and Angelique Kerber have the toughest draws relative to their ranking, as they're the 9th and 8th most likely to win while having the 7th and 6th highest ranking of the remaining players.
- Ashleigh Barty has the toughest 4th round match, as she's the 10th most likely player to win her next match, while she is the 4th highest ranked player still competing.
- The players with the easiest next match compared to their ranking are Venus Williams and Wang Qiang. They're the 2nd and 4th most likely to make it to the quarter finals, while they're the 9th and 11th highest ranked players remaining.
Now, the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow
@tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # |
Name |
ELO |
R4 % |
R5 % |
R6 % |
R7 % |
| 1 |
Naomi Osaka |
1773 |
64.02% |
32.79% |
17.88% |
8.74% |
| 2 |
Belinda Bencic |
1673 |
35.98% |
13.51% |
5.47% |
1.93% |
| 3 |
Anett Kontaveit |
1669 |
31.15% |
12.61% |
5.04% |
1.75% |
| 4 |
Karolina Pliskova |
1807 |
68.85% |
41.09% |
24.33% |
13.03% |
| 5 |
Venus Williams |
1740 |
77.52% |
36.72% |
17.26% |
7.62% |
| 6 |
Mona Barthel |
1525 |
22.48% |
4.65% |
0.97% |
0.19% |
| 7 |
Aryna Sabalenka |
1758 |
49.90% |
29.24% |
14.48% |
6.75% |
| 8 |
Angelique Kerber |
1758 |
50.10% |
29.40% |
14.59% |
6.82% |
| 9 |
Kiki Bertens |
1755 |
54.10% |
33.06% |
13.95% |
6.90% |
| 10 |
Garbine Muguruza |
1726 |
45.90% |
26.27% |
10.07% |
4.57% |
| 11 |
Wang Qiang |
1714 |
66.65% |
30.68% |
11.26% |
4.92% |
| 12 |
Bianca Andreescu |
1594 |
33.35% |
9.98% |
2.27% |
0.64% |
| 13 |
Elina Svitolina |
1812 |
51.15% |
27.22% |
17.12% |
9.86% |
| 14 |
Ashleigh Barty |
1804 |
48.85% |
25.47% |
15.75% |
8.89% |
| 15 |
Marketa Vondrousova |
1596 |
20.34% |
4.63% |
1.54% |
0.44% |
| 16 |
Simona Halep |
1833 |
79.66% |
42.68% |
28.03% |
16.94% |
