The Miami tournament is one of the biggest of the year outside of the Grand Slams, so I'm here with a preview and predictions for how the Men's bracket will turn out. After the jump, I present a table for percentages for all 96 players competing and how they will do.
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But before the full table, some highlights I want to pick out.
- Novak Djokovic is the favourite to win the title, as he has a 34.85% chance of winning the tournament, Roger Federer is 2nd favourite with 24.28%, Alexander Zverev 3rd with 7.27% and Kei Nishikori 4th with 4.31%
- Marco Cecchinato has a really easy draw compared to other players with a similar ELO rating. I have him as the 36th most likely winner, while he is only the 57th highest ranked player here.
- On the other hand, Filip Krajinovic and Radu Albot have a tough draw. They are the 51st and 62nd most likely winners, but are the 33rd and 44th highest ranked players competing.
- Krajnovic also has the toughest 1st round draw, as he's the 69th most likely player to progress to round 2.
- Ilya Ivashka has the easiest 1st round draw, he is the 52nd most likely player to make it to the 2nd round, but is the 79th best player at the tournament.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow
@tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # |
Name |
ELO |
R1 % |
R2 % |
R3 % |
R4 % |
R5 % |
R6 % |
R7 % |
| 1 |
Novak Djokovic |
1981 |
100.00% |
93.85% |
86.93% |
73.72% |
63.27% |
50.88% |
34.85% |
| 2 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 3 |
Bernard Tomic |
1532 |
59.11% |
4.13% |
2.02% |
0.64% |
0.21% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 4 |
Thiago Monteiro |
1468 |
40.89% |
2.02% |
0.80% |
0.20% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 5 |
Peter Gojowczyk |
1540 |
59.43% |
28.17% |
2.87% |
0.94% |
0.32% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
| 6 |
Federico Delbonis |
1473 |
40.57% |
15.46% |
1.17% |
0.30% |
0.08% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 7 |
John Millman |
1558 |
100.00% |
56.37% |
6.22% |
2.18% |
0.78% |
0.22% |
0.04% |
| 8 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 9 |
Roberto Bautista Agut |
1732 |
100.00% |
83.54% |
57.07% |
15.16% |
9.06% |
4.57% |
1.70% |
| 10 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 11 |
Janko Tipsarevic |
1446 |
49.01% |
7.93% |
2.40% |
0.21% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 12 |
Bradley Klahn |
1453 |
50.99% |
8.53% |
2.65% |
0.24% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 13 |
Mikhail Kukushkin |
1551 |
64.95% |
25.10% |
8.12% |
1.10% |
0.39% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
| 14 |
Guido Andreozzi |
1444 |
35.05% |
8.89% |
1.91% |
0.16% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 15 |
Fabio Fognini |
1631 |
100.00% |
66.01% |
27.84% |
5.15% |
2.36% |
0.87% |
0.22% |
| 16 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 17 |
Milos Raonic |
1726 |
100.00% |
76.07% |
48.30% |
31.59% |
9.17% |
4.55% |
1.66% |
| 18 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 19 |
Maximilian Marterer |
1427 |
31.44% |
4.75% |
1.21% |
0.31% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 20 |
Taylor Fritz |
1562 |
68.56% |
19.18% |
7.97% |
3.42% |
0.53% |
0.15% |
0.03% |
| 21 |
Thomas Fabbiano |
1446 |
44.49% |
9.59% |
2.08% |
0.59% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 22 |
Ilya Ivashka |
1485 |
55.51% |
14.17% |
3.60% |
1.18% |
0.13% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 23 |
Kyle Edmund |
1671 |
100.00% |
76.24% |
36.84% |
21.37% |
5.09% |
2.14% |
0.64% |
| 24 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 25 |
Lucas Pouille |
1600 |
100.00% |
64.08% |
28.89% |
11.44% |
2.07% |
0.68% |
0.16% |
| 26 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 27 |
Marius Copil |
1489 |
47.29% |
16.37% |
5.01% |
1.32% |
0.15% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 28 |
Albert Ramos Vinolas |
1508 |
52.71% |
19.56% |
6.43% |
1.82% |
0.22% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 29 |
Martin Klizan |
1608 |
65.98% |
27.52% |
15.45% |
6.28% |
1.18% |
0.40% |
0.09% |
| 30 |
Lorenzo Sonego |
1493 |
34.02% |
9.17% |
3.67% |
0.98% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 31 |
John Isner |
1666 |
100.00% |
63.32% |
40.54% |
19.70% |
4.61% |
1.91% |
0.56% |
| 32 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 33 |
Dominic Thiem |
1764 |
100.00% |
79.17% |
57.85% |
36.26% |
20.23% |
7.43% |
3.05% |
| 34 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 35 |
Matteo Berrettini |
1532 |
50.08% |
10.45% |
4.40% |
1.43% |
0.37% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 36 |
Hubert Hurkacz |
1532 |
49.92% |
10.38% |
4.37% |
1.42% |
0.37% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 37 |
Felix Auger-Aliassime |
1549 |
55.80% |
22.18% |
6.36% |
2.19% |
0.61% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
| 38 |
Casper Ruud |
1508 |
44.20% |
15.17% |
3.71% |
1.10% |
0.26% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 39 |
Marton Fucsovics |
1621 |
100.00% |
62.65% |
23.30% |
10.17% |
3.72% |
0.84% |
0.21% |
| 40 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 41 |
Nikoloz Basilashvili |
1616 |
100.00% |
67.82% |
27.05% |
10.95% |
3.94% |
0.87% |
0.21% |
| 42 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 43 |
Nicola Kuhn |
1497 |
53.13% |
17.77% |
4.64% |
1.22% |
0.28% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 44 |
Mischa Zverev |
1475 |
46.87% |
14.40% |
3.45% |
0.83% |
0.17% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 45 |
Robin Haase |
1502 |
58.97% |
12.18% |
4.87% |
1.31% |
0.30% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 46 |
Lukas Lacko |
1439 |
41.03% |
6.29% |
2.01% |
0.42% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 47 |
Gael Monfils |
1736 |
100.00% |
81.53% |
58.00% |
32.70% |
17.01% |
5.73% |
2.16% |
| 48 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 49 |
Borna Coric |
1701 |
100.00% |
78.97% |
52.26% |
22.96% |
11.47% |
3.44% |
1.15% |
| 50 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 51 |
Roberto Carballes Baena |
1486 |
55.07% |
12.41% |
4.54% |
0.89% |
0.21% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 52 |
Denis Kudla |
1451 |
44.93% |
8.62% |
2.76% |
0.46% |
0.09% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 53 |
Jeremy Chardy |
1566 |
58.65% |
25.73% |
9.83% |
2.69% |
0.87% |
0.16% |
0.03% |
| 54 |
Nicolas Jarry |
1506 |
41.35% |
14.69% |
4.54% |
0.96% |
0.25% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 55 |
Gilles Simon |
1609 |
100.00% |
59.59% |
26.07% |
8.40% |
3.16% |
0.68% |
0.16% |
| 56 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 57 |
Nick Kyrgios |
1726 |
100.00% |
79.40% |
36.74% |
22.69% |
12.11% |
3.95% |
1.44% |
| 58 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 59 |
Tennys Sandgren |
1496 |
51.24% |
10.76% |
2.17% |
0.68% |
0.17% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 60 |
Alexander Bublik |
1487 |
48.76% |
9.84% |
1.91% |
0.58% |
0.14% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 61 |
Dusan Lajovic |
1532 |
44.64% |
7.93% |
2.46% |
0.88% |
0.25% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 62 |
Pablo Cuevas |
1569 |
55.36% |
11.70% |
4.15% |
1.68% |
0.55% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
| 63 |
Kei Nishikori |
1798 |
100.00% |
80.37% |
52.56% |
37.14% |
23.38% |
9.49% |
4.31% |
| 64 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 65 |
Kevin Anderson |
1792 |
100.00% |
83.47% |
66.82% |
43.08% |
17.39% |
10.06% |
4.21% |
| 66 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 67 |
Jaume Munar |
1533 |
58.12% |
10.68% |
5.10% |
1.53% |
0.24% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 68 |
Prajnesh Gunneswaran |
1476 |
41.88% |
5.85% |
2.33% |
0.55% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 69 |
Joao Sousa |
1524 |
54.71% |
23.45% |
5.47% |
1.59% |
0.24% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 70 |
Tseng Chun-hsin |
1492 |
45.29% |
17.35% |
3.53% |
0.90% |
0.12% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 71 |
Steve Johnson |
1574 |
100.00% |
59.21% |
16.76% |
5.87% |
1.09% |
0.32% |
0.06% |
| 72 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 73 |
Grigor Dimitrov |
1704 |
100.00% |
69.94% |
37.34% |
18.24% |
5.55% |
2.56% |
0.81% |
| 74 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 75 |
Feliciano Lopez |
1575 |
55.77% |
17.96% |
6.48% |
2.14% |
0.39% |
0.12% |
0.02% |
| 76 |
Benoit Paire |
1534 |
44.23% |
12.10% |
3.78% |
1.08% |
0.17% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 77 |
Cameron Norrie |
1572 |
66.97% |
19.87% |
7.54% |
2.47% |
0.45% |
0.13% |
0.03% |
| 78 |
Jordan Thompson |
1450 |
33.03% |
5.69% |
1.34% |
0.27% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 79 |
Karen Khachanov |
1722 |
100.00% |
74.45% |
43.51% |
22.29% |
7.22% |
3.51% |
1.18% |
| 80 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 81 |
Daniil Medvedev |
1750 |
100.00% |
77.05% |
53.45% |
16.90% |
9.07% |
4.75% |
1.75% |
| 82 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 83 |
Adrian Mannarino |
1525 |
46.24% |
9.95% |
3.84% |
0.49% |
0.13% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 84 |
Aljaz Bedene |
1551 |
53.76% |
13.00% |
5.48% |
0.79% |
0.22% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 85 |
Reilly Opelka |
1524 |
37.60% |
13.55% |
3.72% |
0.47% |
0.12% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 86 |
Jan-Lennard Struff |
1612 |
62.40% |
30.15% |
11.40% |
2.13% |
0.75% |
0.26% |
0.06% |
| 87 |
Diego Schwartzman |
1624 |
100.00% |
56.30% |
22.12% |
4.34% |
1.60% |
0.57% |
0.13% |
| 88 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 89 |
Stan Wawrinka |
1721 |
100.00% |
68.54% |
16.68% |
9.28% |
4.61% |
2.23% |
0.75% |
| 90 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 91 |
Pierre-Hugues Herbert |
1593 |
52.36% |
16.98% |
2.46% |
0.95% |
0.31% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
| 92 |
Filip Krajinovic |
1577 |
47.64% |
14.48% |
1.96% |
0.71% |
0.22% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 93 |
Radu Albot |
1551 |
56.52% |
4.89% |
1.61% |
0.54% |
0.15% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 94 |
Matthew Ebden |
1506 |
43.48% |
2.95% |
0.81% |
0.23% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 95 |
Roger Federer |
1961 |
100.00% |
92.16% |
76.48% |
63.17% |
49.81% |
38.71% |
24.28% |
| 96 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 97 |
Stefanos Tsitsipas |
1725 |
100.00% |
76.97% |
55.47% |
30.95% |
15.61% |
5.43% |
1.85% |
| 98 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 99 |
Mackenzie McDonald |
1530 |
54.69% |
13.42% |
6.18% |
1.90% |
0.51% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
| 100 |
Ugo Humbert |
1497 |
45.31% |
9.61% |
3.99% |
1.08% |
0.26% |
0.04% |
0.00% |
| 101 |
Leonardo Mayer |
1522 |
59.52% |
23.96% |
7.19% |
2.14% |
0.56% |
0.09% |
0.01% |
| 102 |
Mikael Ymer |
1455 |
40.48% |
12.72% |
2.92% |
0.67% |
0.13% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 103 |
Guido Pella |
1591 |
100.00% |
63.33% |
24.25% |
9.23% |
3.12% |
0.66% |
0.13% |
| 104 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 105 |
Denis Shapovalov |
1609 |
100.00% |
60.64% |
22.17% |
9.86% |
3.53% |
0.80% |
0.18% |
| 106 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 107 |
Daniel Evans |
1567 |
63.43% |
27.94% |
8.83% |
3.45% |
1.07% |
0.20% |
0.04% |
| 108 |
Malek Jaziri |
1472 |
36.57% |
11.42% |
2.48% |
0.69% |
0.15% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 109 |
Andrey Rublev |
1541 |
62.72% |
14.14% |
6.24% |
2.23% |
0.63% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
| 110 |
Taro Daniel |
1450 |
37.28% |
5.50% |
1.77% |
0.45% |
0.09% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 111 |
Marin Cilic |
1755 |
100.00% |
80.37% |
58.50% |
37.36% |
20.30% |
7.78% |
2.91% |
| 112 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 113 |
Marco Cecchinato |
1529 |
100.00% |
54.31% |
18.93% |
4.90% |
1.44% |
0.23% |
0.04% |
| 114 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 115 |
Christopher Eubanks |
1454 |
39.60% |
15.61% |
4.10% |
0.79% |
0.17% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 116 |
Damir Dzumhur |
1528 |
60.40% |
30.08% |
10.44% |
2.69% |
0.79% |
0.13% |
0.02% |
| 117 |
Pablo Andujar |
1443 |
38.64% |
7.54% |
2.98% |
0.54% |
0.11% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 118 |
Ivo Karlovic |
1523 |
61.36% |
17.05% |
8.67% |
2.19% |
0.63% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
| 119 |
David Goffin |
1689 |
100.00% |
75.41% |
54.88% |
24.08% |
12.03% |
3.69% |
1.11% |
| 120 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 121 |
Frances Tiafoe |
1553 |
100.00% |
55.24% |
12.85% |
5.43% |
1.75% |
0.31% |
0.05% |
| 122 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 123 |
Ernests Gulbis |
1522 |
51.49% |
23.41% |
4.78% |
1.82% |
0.52% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
| 124 |
Miomir Kecmanovic |
1511 |
48.51% |
21.34% |
4.16% |
1.53% |
0.42% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 125 |
Sam Querrey |
1598 |
58.05% |
12.58% |
7.38% |
3.56% |
1.35% |
0.29% |
0.06% |
| 126 |
David Ferrer |
1541 |
41.95% |
6.99% |
3.54% |
1.44% |
0.45% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
| 127 |
Alexander Zverev |
1821 |
100.00% |
80.43% |
67.28% |
51.04% |
34.37% |
16.01% |
7.27% |
| 128 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
