The Miami tournament is one of the biggest of the year outside of the Grand Slams, so I'm here with a preview and predictions for how the Women's bracket will turn out. After the jump, I present a table for percentages for all 96 players competing and how they will do.
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But before the full table, some highlights I want to pick out.
- Serena Williams is the favourite to win the title, as she has a 12.46% chance of winning the tournament, Simona Halep is 2nd favourite with 9.87%, Karolina Pliskova 3rd with 8.83% and Elina Svitolina 4th with 8.22%
- Anna Karolina Schmiedlova has a really easy draw compared to other players with a similar ELO rating. I have her as the 75th most likely winner, while she is only the 85th highest ranked player here.
- On the other hand, Jessica Pegula has a tough draw. She is the 78th most likely winner, but is the 61st highest ranked player competing.
- The toughest 1st round draw went to Dominika Cibulkova, as she's the 74th most likely player to progress to round 2, but she's ranked 30th of the competitors.
- Wang Xinyu and Johanna Larsson have the easiest 1st round draws, they are 30 places more likely to make it to round 2 than their ranking would suggest.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow
@tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # |
Name |
ELO |
R1 % |
R2 % |
R3 % |
R4 % |
R5 % |
R6 % |
R7 % |
| 1 |
Naomi Osaka |
1761 |
100.00% |
82.52% |
56.36% |
32.39% |
18.29% |
9.88% |
4.81% |
| 2 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 3 |
Sachia Vickery |
1476 |
46.10% |
7.50% |
2.26% |
0.49% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 4 |
Yanina Wickmayer |
1503 |
53.90% |
9.98% |
3.34% |
0.81% |
0.19% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 5 |
Kaia Kanepi |
1546 |
45.09% |
15.42% |
4.42% |
1.28% |
0.36% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| 6 |
Alison Riske |
1580 |
54.91% |
21.28% |
6.91% |
2.28% |
0.74% |
0.22% |
0.06% |
| 7 |
Hsieh Su-Wei |
1659 |
100.00% |
63.30% |
26.72% |
11.60% |
4.93% |
1.98% |
0.70% |
| 8 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 9 |
Garbine Muguruza |
1723 |
100.00% |
77.39% |
41.00% |
21.91% |
11.25% |
5.50% |
2.39% |
| 10 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 11 |
Monica Niculescu |
1495 |
46.22% |
9.80% |
2.37% |
0.59% |
0.14% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 12 |
Tamara Zidansek |
1522 |
53.78% |
12.81% |
3.46% |
0.96% |
0.24% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 13 |
Viktorija Golubic |
1457 |
27.43% |
4.47% |
1.04% |
0.22% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 14 |
Aliaksandra Sasnovich |
1626 |
72.57% |
24.66% |
10.62% |
4.28% |
1.63% |
0.58% |
0.18% |
| 15 |
Caroline Wozniacki |
1741 |
100.00% |
70.87% |
41.51% |
23.20% |
12.48% |
6.41% |
2.95% |
| 16 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 17 |
Aryna Sabalenka |
1748 |
100.00% |
76.44% |
50.67% |
27.98% |
15.20% |
7.94% |
3.72% |
| 18 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 19 |
Anna-Lena Friedsam |
1508 |
41.71% |
8.39% |
2.83% |
0.71% |
0.17% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 20 |
Ajla Tomljanovic |
1566 |
58.29% |
15.17% |
6.27% |
1.97% |
0.59% |
0.17% |
0.04% |
| 21 |
Andrea Petkovic |
1530 |
42.28% |
13.44% |
3.80% |
1.04% |
0.27% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 22 |
Amanda Anisimova |
1585 |
57.72% |
22.44% |
7.76% |
2.60% |
0.84% |
0.26% |
0.07% |
| 23 |
Anett Kontaveit |
1663 |
100.00% |
64.11% |
28.66% |
12.52% |
5.33% |
2.16% |
0.77% |
| 24 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 25 |
Sofia Kenin |
1654 |
100.00% |
56.47% |
22.59% |
10.31% |
4.25% |
1.67% |
0.58% |
| 26 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 27 |
Bianca Andreescu |
1650 |
69.87% |
34.57% |
13.67% |
6.17% |
2.52% |
0.98% |
0.33% |
| 28 |
Irina-Camelia Begu |
1504 |
30.13% |
8.95% |
2.08% |
0.56% |
0.13% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 29 |
Karolina Muchova |
1527 |
60.46% |
11.90% |
4.11% |
1.21% |
0.31% |
0.08% |
0.02% |
| 30 |
Nao Hibino |
1453 |
39.54% |
5.46% |
1.41% |
0.31% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 31 |
Angelique Kerber |
1771 |
100.00% |
82.65% |
56.14% |
34.62% |
19.93% |
11.07% |
5.54% |
| 32 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 33 |
Petra Kvitova |
1784 |
100.00% |
81.46% |
60.14% |
39.57% |
22.87% |
13.26% |
6.87% |
| 34 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 35 |
Olga Danilovic |
1531 |
51.15% |
9.66% |
3.92% |
1.23% |
0.31% |
0.08% |
0.02% |
| 36 |
Maria Sakkari |
1523 |
48.85% |
8.89% |
3.51% |
1.07% |
0.26% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 37 |
Sara Sorribes Tormo |
1461 |
38.66% |
10.24% |
1.90% |
0.45% |
0.08% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 38 |
Aleksandra Krunic |
1541 |
61.34% |
22.32% |
5.76% |
1.88% |
0.50% |
0.13% |
0.03% |
| 39 |
Donna Vekic |
1638 |
100.00% |
67.44% |
24.78% |
11.33% |
4.30% |
1.63% |
0.53% |
| 40 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 41 |
Caroline Garcia |
1672 |
100.00% |
50.46% |
27.06% |
12.15% |
5.16% |
2.19% |
0.81% |
| 42 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 43 |
Victoria Azarenka |
1683 |
54.29% |
27.96% |
15.39% |
7.12% |
3.12% |
1.37% |
0.52% |
| 44 |
Dominika Cibulkova |
1653 |
45.71% |
21.58% |
11.00% |
4.66% |
1.86% |
0.74% |
0.25% |
| 45 |
Natalia Vikhlyantseva |
1457 |
41.17% |
8.49% |
1.92% |
0.39% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 46 |
Magdalena Rybarikova |
1518 |
58.83% |
15.92% |
4.68% |
1.24% |
0.30% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 47 |
Julia Gorges |
1691 |
100.00% |
75.59% |
39.95% |
18.91% |
8.51% |
3.83% |
1.50% |
| 48 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 49 |
Ashleigh Barty |
1795 |
100.00% |
78.12% |
52.08% |
34.18% |
21.15% |
12.58% |
6.70% |
| 50 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 51 |
Ekaterina Alexandrova |
1543 |
42.68% |
8.13% |
2.76% |
0.89% |
0.26% |
0.07% |
0.02% |
| 52 |
Dayana Yastremska |
1594 |
57.32% |
13.76% |
5.55% |
2.15% |
0.75% |
0.24% |
0.07% |
| 53 |
Evgeniya Rodina |
1453 |
43.27% |
7.96% |
1.34% |
0.30% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 54 |
Samantha Stosur |
1500 |
56.73% |
12.95% |
2.69% |
0.73% |
0.18% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 55 |
Madison Keys |
1712 |
100.00% |
79.09% |
35.59% |
19.49% |
9.88% |
4.75% |
2.00% |
| 56 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 57 |
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova |
1642 |
100.00% |
59.20% |
24.95% |
9.31% |
3.83% |
1.47% |
0.49% |
| 58 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 59 |
Viktoria Kuzmova |
1547 |
42.44% |
15.53% |
4.69% |
1.23% |
0.36% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
| 60 |
Daria Gavrilova |
1600 |
57.56% |
25.27% |
9.26% |
2.97% |
1.06% |
0.35% |
0.10% |
| 61 |
Wang Xiyu |
1488 |
35.67% |
6.64% |
2.15% |
0.44% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 62 |
Monica Puig |
1590 |
64.33% |
18.78% |
8.68% |
2.69% |
0.92% |
0.29% |
0.08% |
| 63 |
Kiki Bertens |
1744 |
100.00% |
74.58% |
50.27% |
25.62% |
14.11% |
7.40% |
3.43% |
| 64 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 65 |
Karolina Pliskova |
1800 |
100.00% |
78.79% |
62.02% |
42.42% |
29.26% |
15.08% |
8.83% |
| 66 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 67 |
Zhang Shuai |
1571 |
49.82% |
10.54% |
5.27% |
1.98% |
0.76% |
0.18% |
0.05% |
| 68 |
Petra Martic |
1572 |
50.18% |
10.67% |
5.35% |
2.02% |
0.77% |
0.18% |
0.05% |
| 69 |
Vera Lapko |
1518 |
44.10% |
17.39% |
3.82% |
1.19% |
0.37% |
0.07% |
0.02% |
| 70 |
Alize Cornet |
1559 |
55.90% |
25.28% |
6.58% |
2.38% |
0.87% |
0.19% |
0.05% |
| 71 |
Mihaela Buzarnescu |
1593 |
100.00% |
57.32% |
16.96% |
6.87% |
2.81% |
0.72% |
0.22% |
| 72 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 73 |
Belinda Bencic |
1692 |
100.00% |
71.78% |
40.31% |
18.89% |
10.35% |
3.83% |
1.67% |
| 74 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 75 |
Yulia Putintseva |
1529 |
49.94% |
14.08% |
4.85% |
1.33% |
0.43% |
0.08% |
0.02% |
| 76 |
Kirsten Flipkens |
1530 |
50.06% |
14.14% |
4.87% |
1.34% |
0.44% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| 77 |
Zheng Saisai |
1495 |
43.58% |
10.62% |
3.20% |
0.77% |
0.22% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 78 |
Katerina Siniakova |
1540 |
56.42% |
16.60% |
5.91% |
1.69% |
0.57% |
0.12% |
0.03% |
| 79 |
Anastasija Sevastova |
1692 |
100.00% |
72.78% |
40.85% |
19.14% |
10.48% |
3.88% |
1.68% |
| 80 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 81 |
Elise Mertens |
1708 |
100.00% |
71.43% |
46.56% |
27.03% |
13.30% |
5.20% |
2.37% |
| 82 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 83 |
Pauline Parmentier |
1512 |
41.34% |
10.11% |
3.82% |
1.21% |
0.30% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 84 |
Margarita Gasparyan |
1573 |
58.66% |
18.46% |
8.54% |
3.37% |
1.07% |
0.25% |
0.07% |
| 85 |
Marketa Vondrousova |
1608 |
50.37% |
26.43% |
11.17% |
4.93% |
1.78% |
0.48% |
0.16% |
| 86 |
Barbora Strycova |
1605 |
49.63% |
25.85% |
10.84% |
4.75% |
1.70% |
0.45% |
0.15% |
| 87 |
Jelena Ostapenko |
1590 |
100.00% |
47.72% |
19.08% |
7.98% |
2.71% |
0.68% |
0.21% |
| 88 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 89 |
Camila Giorgi |
1667 |
100.00% |
75.56% |
40.02% |
21.30% |
9.32% |
3.16% |
1.27% |
| 90 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 91 |
Anna Karolina Schmiedlova |
1481 |
53.01% |
13.51% |
3.87% |
1.11% |
0.24% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 92 |
Tatjana Maria |
1460 |
46.99% |
10.93% |
2.88% |
0.76% |
0.15% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 93 |
Ons Jabeur |
1495 |
39.69% |
9.84% |
3.30% |
1.00% |
0.23% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 94 |
Alison Van Uytvanck |
1568 |
60.31% |
20.12% |
8.61% |
3.40% |
1.06% |
0.24% |
0.07% |
| 95 |
Sloane Stephens |
1688 |
100.00% |
70.04% |
41.33% |
23.17% |
10.78% |
3.94% |
1.69% |
| 96 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 97 |
Elina Svitolina |
1811 |
100.00% |
81.23% |
66.66% |
35.47% |
21.24% |
13.68% |
8.22% |
| 98 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 99 |
Wang Yafan |
1578 |
57.43% |
11.88% |
6.51% |
1.60% |
0.47% |
0.16% |
0.05% |
| 100 |
Kristina Mladenovic |
1526 |
42.57% |
6.90% |
3.27% |
0.65% |
0.16% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 101 |
Whitney Osuigwe |
1475 |
46.34% |
16.55% |
2.88% |
0.45% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 102 |
Mari Osaka |
1500 |
53.66% |
21.00% |
4.08% |
0.72% |
0.16% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 103 |
Danielle Collins |
1577 |
100.00% |
62.45% |
16.60% |
4.07% |
1.20% |
0.40% |
0.11% |
| 104 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 105 |
Wang Qiang |
1701 |
100.00% |
61.05% |
21.40% |
9.91% |
4.46% |
2.21% |
0.99% |
| 106 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 107 |
Johanna Konta |
1662 |
68.11% |
30.26% |
9.26% |
3.84% |
1.53% |
0.68% |
0.27% |
| 108 |
Jessica Pegula |
1530 |
31.89% |
8.69% |
1.59% |
0.42% |
0.10% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 109 |
Rebecca Peterson |
1488 |
40.82% |
4.44% |
1.15% |
0.26% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 110 |
Laura Siegemund |
1553 |
59.18% |
8.90% |
2.98% |
0.86% |
0.23% |
0.07% |
0.02% |
| 111 |
Serena Williams |
1854 |
100.00% |
86.66% |
63.63% |
41.75% |
27.27% |
18.97% |
12.46% |
| 112 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 113 |
Daria Kasatkina |
1656 |
100.00% |
71.63% |
33.48% |
12.52% |
4.06% |
1.76% |
0.68% |
| 114 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 115 |
Cori Gauff |
1500 |
51.43% |
14.88% |
4.01% |
0.83% |
0.14% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 116 |
Caty McNally |
1490 |
48.57% |
13.49% |
3.49% |
0.70% |
0.11% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 117 |
Dalila Jakupovic |
1478 |
18.56% |
5.34% |
1.73% |
0.33% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 118 |
Venus Williams |
1735 |
81.44% |
52.09% |
34.62% |
16.45% |
6.96% |
3.77% |
1.87% |
| 119 |
Carla Suarez Navarro |
1635 |
100.00% |
42.56% |
22.67% |
7.90% |
2.37% |
0.96% |
0.35% |
| 120 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 121 |
Lesia Tsurenko |
1660 |
100.00% |
74.76% |
25.61% |
12.64% |
4.15% |
1.83% |
0.71% |
| 122 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 123 |
Wang Xinyu |
1489 |
55.94% |
15.22% |
2.71% |
0.74% |
0.12% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 124 |
Misaki Doi |
1447 |
44.06% |
10.02% |
1.50% |
0.34% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 125 |
Taylor Townsend |
1454 |
45.52% |
5.00% |
1.48% |
0.35% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 126 |
Johanna Larsson |
1485 |
54.48% |
7.02% |
2.32% |
0.63% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 127 |
Simona Halep |
1817 |
100.00% |
87.98% |
66.38% |
46.56% |
24.87% |
16.20% |
9.87% |
| 128 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
