The Indian Wells tournament is one of the biggest of the year outside of the Grand Slams, so I'm here with a preview and predictions for how the Women's bracket will turn out. After the jump, I present a table for percentages for all 96 players competing and how they will do.
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| Indian Wells logo, © BNP Paribas Open |
But before the full table, some highlights I want to pick out.
- Serena Williams is the favourite to win the title, as she has a 13.18% chance of winning the tournament, Simona Halep is 2nd favourite with 11.01%, Karolina Pliskova 3rd with 9.12% and Ashleigh Barty 4th with 7.15%
- Danielle Collins has a really easy draw compared to other players with a similar ELO rating. I have her as the 36th most likely winner, while she is only the 44th highest ranked player here.
- On the other hand, Andrea Petkovic and Vera Lapko have tough draws. They are the 68th and 76th most likely winners, but are the 56th and 64th highest ranked players competing.
- The toughest 1st round draw went to Wang Yafan, as she's the 85th most likely player to progress to round 2, but she's ranked 40th of the competitors.
- 3 players are tied for the easiest 1st round draw. Taylor Townsend, Priscilla Hon and Sachia Vickery are 32 places more likely to make it to round 2 than their ranking would suggest.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow
@tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # |
Name |
ELO |
R1 % |
R2 % |
R3 % |
R4 % |
R5 % |
R6 % |
R7 % |
| 1 |
Naomi Osaka |
1764 |
100.00% |
80.95% |
62.27% |
37.11% |
20.72% |
11.47% |
5.59% |
| 2 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 3 |
Kristina Mladenovic |
1520 |
52.30% |
10.32% |
4.66% |
1.30% |
0.33% |
0.08% |
0.02% |
| 4 |
Zheng Saisai |
1504 |
47.70% |
8.73% |
3.74% |
0.98% |
0.23% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 5 |
Kirsten Flipkens |
1529 |
49.32% |
21.55% |
5.72% |
1.65% |
0.43% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
| 6 |
Eugenie Bouchard |
1534 |
50.68% |
22.49% |
6.08% |
1.79% |
0.47% |
0.12% |
0.03% |
| 7 |
Danielle Collins |
1573 |
100.00% |
55.95% |
17.53% |
5.97% |
1.84% |
0.55% |
0.14% |
| 8 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 9 |
Belinda Bencic |
1659 |
100.00% |
61.34% |
26.29% |
12.28% |
5.11% |
2.08% |
0.72% |
| 10 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 11 |
Alison Riske |
1591 |
53.73% |
21.65% |
7.42% |
2.82% |
0.93% |
0.30% |
0.08% |
| 12 |
Alison Van Uytvanck |
1565 |
46.27% |
17.00% |
5.31% |
1.85% |
0.55% |
0.16% |
0.04% |
| 13 |
Rebecca Peterson |
1498 |
46.07% |
8.45% |
2.73% |
0.74% |
0.17% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 14 |
Ekaterina Alexandrova |
1525 |
53.93% |
11.23% |
4.01% |
1.21% |
0.31% |
0.08% |
0.02% |
| 15 |
Caroline Wozniacki |
1757 |
100.00% |
80.32% |
54.24% |
32.29% |
17.72% |
9.63% |
4.59% |
| 16 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 17 |
Anastasija Sevastova |
1699 |
100.00% |
77.48% |
47.39% |
21.30% |
10.27% |
4.75% |
1.90% |
| 18 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 19 |
Madison Brengle |
1434 |
38.93% |
6.96% |
1.82% |
0.30% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 20 |
Samantha Stosur |
1513 |
61.07% |
15.55% |
5.52% |
1.29% |
0.33% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
| 21 |
Monica Puig |
1592 |
68.18% |
28.52% |
11.88% |
3.76% |
1.29% |
0.41% |
0.11% |
| 22 |
Evgeniya Rodina |
1460 |
31.82% |
7.99% |
2.07% |
0.39% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 23 |
Anett Kontaveit |
1649 |
100.00% |
63.49% |
31.31% |
12.07% |
5.01% |
1.98% |
0.66% |
| 24 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 25 |
Donna Vekic |
1653 |
100.00% |
75.90% |
27.02% |
13.57% |
5.70% |
2.28% |
0.78% |
| 26 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 27 |
Ysaline Bonaventure |
1442 |
46.68% |
10.65% |
1.66% |
0.39% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 28 |
Taylor Townsend |
1465 |
53.32% |
13.46% |
2.32% |
0.61% |
0.12% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 29 |
Misaki Doi |
1438 |
40.14% |
4.39% |
1.25% |
0.29% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 30 |
Ons Jabeur |
1507 |
59.86% |
9.25% |
3.40% |
1.05% |
0.26% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 31 |
Karolina Pliskova |
1802 |
100.00% |
86.36% |
64.35% |
44.97% |
27.93% |
16.91% |
9.12% |
| 32 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 33 |
Petra Kvitova |
1796 |
100.00% |
66.33% |
48.66% |
31.29% |
19.63% |
11.46% |
6.08% |
| 34 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 35 |
Venus Williams |
1718 |
74.11% |
28.93% |
18.54% |
10.00% |
5.22% |
2.49% |
1.06% |
| 36 |
Andrea Petkovic |
1536 |
25.89% |
4.73% |
1.86% |
0.56% |
0.16% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 37 |
Christina McHale |
1468 |
40.49% |
10.19% |
1.65% |
0.37% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 38 |
Maria Sakkari |
1534 |
59.51% |
19.69% |
4.31% |
1.28% |
0.36% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| 39 |
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova |
1657 |
100.00% |
70.12% |
25.00% |
11.35% |
4.96% |
1.96% |
0.67% |
| 40 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 41 |
Madison Keys |
1728 |
100.00% |
80.76% |
48.41% |
24.29% |
13.02% |
6.39% |
2.80% |
| 42 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 43 |
Zhu Lin |
1474 |
48.53% |
9.11% |
2.46% |
0.49% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 44 |
Mona Barthel |
1484 |
51.47% |
10.13% |
2.85% |
0.60% |
0.14% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 45 |
Johanna Larsson |
1494 |
42.97% |
10.06% |
2.68% |
0.59% |
0.14% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 46 |
Kaia Kanepi |
1543 |
57.03% |
16.46% |
5.28% |
1.42% |
0.42% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
| 47 |
Julia Gorges |
1700 |
100.00% |
73.49% |
38.31% |
17.75% |
8.82% |
3.98% |
1.59% |
| 48 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 49 |
Aryna Sabalenka |
1745 |
100.00% |
73.69% |
49.35% |
28.38% |
14.96% |
7.68% |
3.54% |
| 50 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 51 |
Ajla Tomljanovic |
1561 |
48.79% |
12.60% |
5.33% |
1.78% |
0.51% |
0.14% |
0.03% |
| 52 |
Alize Cornet |
1570 |
51.21% |
13.71% |
5.95% |
2.05% |
0.61% |
0.17% |
0.04% |
| 53 |
Jessica Pegula |
1528 |
56.44% |
17.92% |
5.05% |
1.49% |
0.37% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| 54 |
Zarina Diyas |
1483 |
43.56% |
11.50% |
2.70% |
0.67% |
0.14% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 55 |
Lesia Tsurenko |
1661 |
100.00% |
70.58% |
31.62% |
14.60% |
6.01% |
2.40% |
0.84% |
| 56 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 57 |
Carla Suarez Navarro |
1650 |
100.00% |
77.07% |
32.73% |
15.00% |
5.97% |
2.30% |
0.78% |
| 58 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 59 |
Natalia Vikhlyantseva |
1434 |
48.37% |
10.80% |
2.05% |
0.42% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 60 |
Priscilla Hon |
1445 |
51.63% |
12.12% |
2.41% |
0.52% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 61 |
Yulia Putintseva |
1526 |
58.54% |
12.58% |
4.97% |
1.48% |
0.37% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| 62 |
Timea Babos |
1466 |
41.46% |
6.73% |
2.16% |
0.51% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 63 |
Angelique Kerber |
1751 |
100.00% |
80.69% |
55.68% |
33.13% |
17.75% |
9.27% |
4.34% |
| 64 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 65 |
Kiki Bertens |
1742 |
100.00% |
74.19% |
46.54% |
20.38% |
11.96% |
5.67% |
2.84% |
| 66 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 67 |
Petra Martic |
1584 |
59.37% |
17.04% |
6.93% |
1.74% |
0.64% |
0.18% |
0.05% |
| 68 |
Magda Linette |
1518 |
40.63% |
8.77% |
2.81% |
0.54% |
0.15% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 69 |
Johanna Konta |
1653 |
68.49% |
32.60% |
14.33% |
4.67% |
2.16% |
0.77% |
0.29% |
| 70 |
Pauline Parmentier |
1518 |
31.51% |
9.29% |
2.54% |
0.48% |
0.14% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 71 |
Hsieh Su-Wei |
1670 |
100.00% |
58.11% |
26.85% |
9.28% |
4.51% |
1.70% |
0.68% |
| 72 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 73 |
Garbine Muguruza |
1708 |
100.00% |
78.37% |
27.63% |
14.58% |
7.86% |
3.35% |
1.52% |
| 74 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 75 |
Anna Karolina Schmiedlova |
1491 |
52.21% |
11.67% |
1.69% |
0.42% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 76 |
Lauren Davis |
1476 |
47.79% |
9.97% |
1.34% |
0.31% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 77 |
Vera Lapko |
1524 |
28.68% |
3.57% |
1.15% |
0.33% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 78 |
Victoria Azarenka |
1682 |
71.32% |
18.64% |
9.83% |
4.84% |
2.43% |
0.96% |
0.40% |
| 79 |
Serena Williams |
1863 |
100.00% |
77.78% |
58.35% |
42.43% |
31.29% |
19.87% |
13.18% |
| 80 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 81 |
Elise Mertens |
1711 |
100.00% |
69.56% |
40.34% |
23.00% |
9.78% |
4.23% |
1.93% |
| 82 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 83 |
Aleksandra Krunic |
1550 |
45.41% |
12.86% |
4.69% |
1.65% |
0.39% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| 84 |
Amanda Anisimova |
1582 |
54.59% |
17.58% |
7.13% |
2.80% |
0.75% |
0.21% |
0.06% |
| 85 |
Bernada Pera |
1501 |
50.21% |
12.22% |
3.46% |
1.01% |
0.19% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 86 |
Caty McNally |
1500 |
49.79% |
12.04% |
3.39% |
0.99% |
0.19% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 87 |
Wang Qiang |
1698 |
100.00% |
75.73% |
40.99% |
22.64% |
9.24% |
3.83% |
1.68% |
| 88 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 89 |
Dominika Cibulkova |
1665 |
100.00% |
66.74% |
33.80% |
16.38% |
5.99% |
2.23% |
0.88% |
| 90 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 91 |
Bianca Andreescu |
1566 |
57.72% |
20.87% |
7.86% |
2.77% |
0.70% |
0.18% |
0.05% |
| 92 |
Irina-Camelia Begu |
1512 |
42.28% |
12.39% |
3.87% |
1.11% |
0.22% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 93 |
Stefanie Vogele |
1423 |
40.69% |
6.71% |
1.62% |
0.32% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 94 |
Sachia Vickery |
1488 |
59.31% |
13.25% |
4.18% |
1.09% |
0.20% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 95 |
Sloane Stephens |
1704 |
100.00% |
80.04% |
48.67% |
26.24% |
10.91% |
4.61% |
2.07% |
| 96 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 97 |
Elina Svitolina |
1801 |
100.00% |
73.27% |
55.84% |
32.64% |
19.72% |
11.31% |
6.59% |
| 98 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 99 |
Wang Yafan |
1586 |
40.69% |
9.13% |
4.39% |
1.34% |
0.44% |
0.13% |
0.04% |
| 100 |
Sofia Kenin |
1651 |
59.31% |
17.60% |
10.11% |
3.89% |
1.59% |
0.59% |
0.22% |
| 101 |
Daria Gavrilova |
1583 |
46.90% |
22.13% |
6.17% |
1.86% |
0.61% |
0.18% |
0.05% |
| 102 |
Dayana Yastremska |
1605 |
53.10% |
26.70% |
8.09% |
2.65% |
0.93% |
0.29% |
0.09% |
| 103 |
Mihaela Buzarnescu |
1603 |
100.00% |
51.17% |
15.39% |
5.00% |
1.75% |
0.55% |
0.17% |
| 104 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 105 |
Caroline Garcia |
1687 |
100.00% |
77.16% |
31.26% |
14.36% |
6.54% |
2.74% |
1.16% |
| 106 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 107 |
Nao Hibino |
1462 |
46.51% |
10.01% |
1.74% |
0.35% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 108 |
Jennifer Brady |
1487 |
53.49% |
12.83% |
2.48% |
0.56% |
0.12% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 109 |
Tatjana Maria |
1450 |
38.60% |
4.58% |
1.20% |
0.23% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 110 |
Magdalena Rybarikova |
1531 |
61.40% |
10.82% |
3.84% |
1.03% |
0.28% |
0.07% |
0.02% |
| 111 |
Ashleigh Barty |
1799 |
100.00% |
84.60% |
59.48% |
36.09% |
21.67% |
12.35% |
7.15% |
| 112 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 113 |
Daria Kasatkina |
1669 |
100.00% |
64.76% |
40.57% |
16.07% |
6.25% |
2.47% |
0.99% |
| 114 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 115 |
Marketa Vondrousova |
1563 |
50.01% |
17.63% |
8.42% |
2.31% |
0.61% |
0.16% |
0.04% |
| 116 |
Laura Siegemund |
1563 |
49.99% |
17.61% |
8.41% |
2.30% |
0.61% |
0.16% |
0.04% |
| 117 |
Zhang Shuai |
1571 |
52.18% |
24.60% |
10.23% |
2.89% |
0.79% |
0.22% |
0.06% |
| 118 |
Viktoria Kuzmova |
1556 |
47.82% |
21.51% |
8.50% |
2.27% |
0.58% |
0.15% |
0.04% |
| 119 |
Jelena Ostapenko |
1591 |
100.00% |
53.89% |
23.88% |
7.26% |
2.14% |
0.64% |
0.19% |
| 120 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 121 |
Aliaksandra Sasnovich |
1640 |
100.00% |
66.28% |
20.95% |
11.28% |
3.98% |
1.43% |
0.52% |
| 122 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| 123 |
Katerina Siniakova |
1552 |
61.16% |
22.98% |
5.16% |
2.14% |
0.54% |
0.14% |
0.04% |
| 124 |
Kateryna Kozlova |
1473 |
38.84% |
10.74% |
1.72% |
0.54% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 125 |
Barbora Strycova |
1603 |
69.14% |
15.00% |
7.51% |
3.65% |
1.13% |
0.35% |
0.11% |
| 126 |
Viktorija Golubic |
1463 |
30.86% |
3.39% |
1.07% |
0.32% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 127 |
Simona Halep |
1826 |
100.00% |
81.61% |
63.59% |
48.96% |
29.45% |
17.85% |
11.01% |
| 128 |
Bye |
0 |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
