We now come to the final Grand Slam of the year, the French Open. Let's take a look at the draw for this tournament, and my predictions for the tournament, including who's most likely to win, and full probabilities for how likely each player is to make it to each round.
- Novak Djokovic is the most likely to win the tournament, with a 38.55% chance of winning the whole thing, with Rafael Nadal next at 29.15%. The 3rd most likely is Dominic Thiem with 8.13% and Stefanos Tsitsipas 4th with 4.44%
- Gael Monfils has the easiest overall draw, as he is 0.34 percentage points more likely to win the tournament than expected. On the other hand, Stan Wawrinka has a tough draw. He is 0.46 percentage points less likely to win the tournament than expected.
- The toughest 1st round draw went to Egor Gerasimov, as he's 51.28 percentage points less likely to win than a player of his rank is expected to win. Quentin Halys got the easiest 1st round draw, as he's 28.62 percentage points more likely to make it to round 2 than his ranking would expect.
| # | Name | ELO | R1 % | R2 % | R3 % | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novak Djokovic | 2022 | 95.77% | 91.78% | 86.33% | 79.07% | 70.00% | 57.81% | 38.55% |
| 2 | Mikael Ymer | 1480 | 4.23% | 2.13% | 0.89% | 0.30% | 0.08% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 3 | Hugo Dellien | 1452 | 43.87% | 2.38% | 0.90% | 0.28% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 4 | Ricardas Berankis | 1495 | 56.13% | 3.71% | 1.63% | 0.58% | 0.17% | 0.04% | 0.00% |
| 5 | Daniel Elahi Galan | 1480 | 44.35% | 16.97% | 1.36% | 0.46% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 6 | Cameron Norrie | 1519 | 55.65% | 24.34% | 2.29% | 0.89% | 0.28% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 7 | Tennys Sandgren | 1541 | 44.28% | 24.62% | 2.52% | 1.06% | 0.36% | 0.09% | 0.01% |
| 8 | Hubert Hurkacz | 1581 | 55.72% | 34.07% | 4.08% | 1.94% | 0.77% | 0.23% | 0.04% |
| 9 | Christian Garin | 1640 | 64.48% | 38.95% | 22.69% | 3.98% | 1.89% | 0.70% | 0.16% |
| 10 | Philipp Kohlschreiber | 1536 | 35.52% | 16.39% | 7.23% | 0.87% | 0.29% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 11 | Ugo Humbert | 1606 | 68.96% | 34.80% | 18.70% | 2.91% | 1.25% | 0.41% | 0.08% |
| 12 | Marc Polmans | 1468 | 31.04% | 9.86% | 3.47% | 0.32% | 0.08% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 13 | Jiri Vesely | 1530 | 56.03% | 22.31% | 9.16% | 1.07% | 0.36% | 0.09% | 0.01% |
| 14 | Liam Broady | 1488 | 43.97% | 15.15% | 5.37% | 0.53% | 0.15% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 15 | Kamil Majchrzak | 1473 | 26.39% | 11.74% | 3.94% | 0.37% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 16 | Karen Khachanov | 1651 | 73.61% | 50.80% | 29.42% | 5.38% | 2.65% | 1.01% | 0.24% |
| 17 | Roberto Bautista Agut | 1715 | 63.25% | 47.77% | 29.70% | 18.20% | 4.64% | 2.16% | 0.65% |
| 18 | Richard Gasquet | 1620 | 36.75% | 23.62% | 11.70% | 5.68% | 1.05% | 0.36% | 0.08% |
| 19 | Yasutaka Uchiyama | 1476 | 40.12% | 9.58% | 2.95% | 0.88% | 0.09% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 20 | Attila Balazs | 1545 | 59.88% | 19.03% | 7.50% | 2.88% | 0.40% | 0.10% | 0.02% |
| 21 | Guido Pella | 1561 | 58.88% | 21.68% | 8.61% | 3.49% | 0.52% | 0.14% | 0.02% |
| 22 | Salvatore Caruso | 1499 | 41.12% | 12.00% | 3.83% | 1.25% | 0.14% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 23 | John Millman | 1559 | 30.59% | 16.32% | 6.43% | 2.59% | 0.38% | 0.10% | 0.02% |
| 24 | Pablo Carreno Busta | 1702 | 69.41% | 50.01% | 29.28% | 17.43% | 4.25% | 1.91% | 0.55% |
| 25 | Jan-Lennard Struff | 1647 | 61.70% | 39.37% | 20.33% | 10.09% | 2.05% | 0.77% | 0.18% |
| 26 | Frances Tiafoe | 1564 | 38.30% | 20.09% | 8.17% | 3.14% | 0.47% | 0.13% | 0.02% |
| 27 | Daniel Altmaier | 1484 | 36.24% | 11.66% | 3.59% | 1.03% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 28 | Feliciano Lopez | 1582 | 63.76% | 28.88% | 12.42% | 5.07% | 0.81% | 0.24% | 0.04% |
| 29 | Lloyd Harris | 1515 | 52.68% | 15.15% | 5.94% | 1.92% | 0.24% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 30 | Alexei Popyrin | 1496 | 47.32% | 12.61% | 4.63% | 1.39% | 0.16% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 31 | Vasek Pospisil | 1587 | 31.95% | 19.65% | 9.68% | 4.02% | 0.66% | 0.20% | 0.04% |
| 32 | Matteo Berrettini | 1719 | 68.05% | 52.58% | 35.25% | 20.93% | 5.40% | 2.55% | 0.77% |
| 33 | Daniil Medvedev | 1793 | 76.89% | 61.50% | 51.39% | 33.48% | 19.99% | 7.06% | 2.73% |
| 34 | Marton Fucsovics | 1584 | 23.11% | 12.61% | 7.67% | 2.90% | 0.95% | 0.17% | 0.03% |
| 35 | Adrian Mannarino | 1549 | 49.14% | 12.57% | 7.04% | 2.36% | 0.68% | 0.10% | 0.02% |
| 36 | Albert Ramos Vinolas | 1555 | 50.86% | 13.32% | 7.57% | 2.59% | 0.77% | 0.12% | 0.02% |
| 37 | Quentin Halys | 1432 | 39.66% | 14.99% | 2.88% | 0.61% | 0.11% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 38 | Marcos Giron | 1505 | 60.34% | 28.86% | 7.49% | 2.13% | 0.52% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 39 | Thiago Monteiro | 1453 | 35.59% | 16.66% | 3.51% | 0.81% | 0.16% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 40 | Nikoloz Basilashvili | 1557 | 64.41% | 39.48% | 12.44% | 4.28% | 1.28% | 0.20% | 0.03% |
| 41 | Dusan Lajovic | 1550 | 53.60% | 18.73% | 6.54% | 2.32% | 0.67% | 0.10% | 0.02% |
| 42 | Gianluca Mager | 1525 | 46.40% | 14.80% | 4.74% | 1.54% | 0.41% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 43 | Laslo Djere | 1533 | 26.63% | 13.10% | 4.32% | 1.44% | 0.39% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 44 | Kevin Anderson | 1709 | 73.37% | 53.36% | 29.45% | 16.18% | 7.89% | 2.15% | 0.63% |
| 45 | Harold Mayot | 1491 | 49.46% | 11.23% | 3.61% | 1.04% | 0.24% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 46 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 1495 | 50.54% | 11.66% | 3.80% | 1.11% | 0.26% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 47 | Sam Querrey | 1605 | 29.45% | 19.28% | 9.00% | 3.77% | 1.34% | 0.25% | 0.05% |
| 48 | Andrey Rublev | 1756 | 70.55% | 57.83% | 38.54% | 23.43% | 12.89% | 4.08% | 1.41% |
| 49 | Denis Shapovalov | 1696 | 68.20% | 49.44% | 31.61% | 14.22% | 6.90% | 1.80% | 0.50% |
| 50 | Gilles Simon | 1563 | 31.80% | 17.56% | 8.15% | 2.38% | 0.76% | 0.12% | 0.02% |
| 51 | Steve Johnson | 1548 | 56.94% | 20.25% | 8.98% | 2.48% | 0.74% | 0.11% | 0.02% |
| 52 | Roberto Carballes Baena | 1499 | 43.06% | 12.75% | 4.85% | 1.11% | 0.28% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 53 | Andrej Martin | 1509 | 55.43% | 19.36% | 6.89% | 1.64% | 0.42% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 54 | Joao Sousa | 1471 | 44.57% | 13.55% | 4.20% | 0.85% | 0.19% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 55 | Gregoire Barrere | 1474 | 24.48% | 11.60% | 3.63% | 0.75% | 0.17% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 56 | Grigor Dimitrov | 1670 | 75.52% | 55.49% | 31.68% | 13.21% | 5.95% | 1.42% | 0.36% |
| 57 | Filip Krajinovic | 1691 | 74.29% | 51.25% | 21.78% | 12.84% | 6.15% | 1.58% | 0.43% |
| 58 | Nikola Milojevic | 1507 | 25.71% | 11.26% | 2.59% | 0.89% | 0.23% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 59 | Aljaz Bedene | 1582 | 61.55% | 25.50% | 7.69% | 3.40% | 1.15% | 0.20% | 0.04% |
| 60 | Arthur Rinderknech | 1500 | 38.45% | 11.99% | 2.69% | 0.90% | 0.23% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 61 | Henri Laaksonen | 1491 | 45.15% | 7.99% | 2.64% | 0.86% | 0.21% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 62 | Pablo Cuevas | 1525 | 54.85% | 11.16% | 4.16% | 1.53% | 0.42% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 63 | Jaume Munar | 1471 | 11.78% | 5.25% | 1.61% | 0.49% | 0.11% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 64 | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 1821 | 88.22% | 75.60% | 56.85% | 42.47% | 27.54% | 10.55% | 4.44% |
| 65 | Gael Monfils | 1727 | 73.85% | 59.68% | 43.15% | 27.24% | 11.87% | 3.76% | 1.11% |
| 66 | Alexander Bublik | 1547 | 26.15% | 15.65% | 7.58% | 2.94% | 0.68% | 0.11% | 0.02% |
| 67 | Emilio Gomez | 1474 | 49.19% | 11.99% | 4.61% | 1.37% | 0.24% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 68 | Lorenzo Sonego | 1480 | 50.81% | 12.67% | 4.97% | 1.51% | 0.27% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 69 | Jordan Thompson | 1544 | 54.94% | 25.26% | 9.57% | 3.68% | 0.85% | 0.14% | 0.02% |
| 70 | Radu Albot | 1510 | 45.06% | 18.57% | 6.27% | 2.14% | 0.43% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 71 | Tomas Machac | 1500 | 34.53% | 15.84% | 5.17% | 1.70% | 0.32% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 72 | Taylor Fritz | 1611 | 65.47% | 40.33% | 18.69% | 8.86% | 2.64% | 0.56% | 0.11% |
| 73 | Borna Coric | 1633 | 74.24% | 44.02% | 22.11% | 11.29% | 3.64% | 0.83% | 0.17% |
| 74 | Norbert Gombos | 1449 | 25.76% | 8.84% | 2.41% | 0.67% | 0.10% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 75 | Jurij Rodionov | 1473 | 31.46% | 10.96% | 3.27% | 1.00% | 0.17% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 76 | Jeremy Chardy | 1608 | 68.54% | 36.19% | 16.95% | 8.08% | 2.38% | 0.49% | 0.09% |
| 77 | Corentin Moutet | 1500 | 55.26% | 14.86% | 5.58% | 1.89% | 0.36% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 78 | Lorenzo Giustino | 1463 | 44.74% | 10.29% | 3.39% | 1.00% | 0.16% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 79 | Miomir Kecmanovic | 1622 | 37.68% | 25.94% | 14.07% | 6.96% | 2.15% | 0.47% | 0.09% |
| 80 | Diego Schwartzman | 1709 | 62.32% | 48.92% | 32.23% | 19.66% | 8.12% | 2.43% | 0.67% |
| 81 | Stan Wawrinka | 1736 | 43.51% | 33.87% | 23.60% | 10.65% | 6.59% | 2.15% | 0.65% |
| 82 | Andy Murray | 1781 | 56.49% | 46.33% | 34.61% | 17.55% | 11.86% | 4.44% | 1.57% |
| 83 | Dominik Koepfer | 1539 | 57.52% | 12.54% | 5.48% | 1.30% | 0.46% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 84 | Antoine Hoang | 1486 | 42.48% | 7.26% | 2.67% | 0.51% | 0.15% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 85 | Hugo Gaston | 1479 | 50.89% | 15.29% | 3.36% | 0.62% | 0.18% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 86 | Maxime Janvier | 1473 | 49.11% | 14.39% | 3.08% | 0.56% | 0.15% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 87 | Yoshihito Nishioka | 1577 | 38.51% | 24.73% | 7.96% | 2.18% | 0.88% | 0.16% | 0.03% |
| 88 | Felix Auger-Aliassime | 1659 | 61.49% | 45.58% | 19.24% | 6.93% | 3.57% | 0.90% | 0.21% |
| 89 | Casper Ruud | 1645 | 73.35% | 50.34% | 15.27% | 6.69% | 3.32% | 0.79% | 0.17% |
| 90 | Yuichi Sugita | 1469 | 26.65% | 11.91% | 1.78% | 0.42% | 0.11% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 91 | Tommy Paul | 1541 | 63.11% | 26.56% | 5.41% | 1.67% | 0.60% | 0.10% | 0.01% |
| 92 | James Duckworth | 1448 | 36.89% | 11.20% | 1.52% | 0.33% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 93 | Reilly Opelka | 1639 | 69.99% | 17.26% | 10.13% | 4.36% | 2.13% | 0.50% | 0.11% |
| 94 | Jack Sock | 1492 | 30.01% | 3.85% | 1.49% | 0.38% | 0.11% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 95 | Marin Cilic | 1670 | 21.72% | 13.07% | 8.20% | 3.86% | 2.05% | 0.54% | 0.13% |
| 96 | Dominic Thiem | 1893 | 78.28% | 65.81% | 56.19% | 42.01% | 33.39% | 16.83% | 8.13% |
| 97 | Alexander Zverev | 1793 | 88.97% | 72.30% | 53.52% | 40.37% | 14.97% | 8.20% | 3.00% |
| 98 | Dennis Novak | 1430 | 11.03% | 3.95% | 1.12% | 0.34% | 0.03% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 99 | Michael Mmoh | 1466 | 35.40% | 6.32% | 2.05% | 0.70% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 100 | Pierre-Hugues Herbert | 1571 | 64.60% | 17.43% | 8.00% | 3.82% | 0.68% | 0.19% | 0.03% |
| 101 | Federico Delbonis | 1508 | 47.77% | 16.45% | 4.09% | 1.62% | 0.22% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 102 | Juan Ignacio Londero | 1524 | 52.23% | 18.98% | 5.01% | 2.08% | 0.31% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 103 | Marco Cecchinato | 1420 | 18.93% | 6.91% | 1.20% | 0.35% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 104 | Alex De Minaur | 1673 | 81.07% | 57.66% | 25.00% | 15.37% | 3.93% | 1.55% | 0.38% |
| 105 | Benoit Paire | 1561 | 53.22% | 32.40% | 14.19% | 4.48% | 0.77% | 0.20% | 0.03% |
| 106 | Kwon Soon-Woo | 1538 | 46.78% | 27.03% | 11.04% | 3.22% | 0.50% | 0.12% | 0.02% |
| 107 | Federico Coria | 1503 | 56.38% | 24.39% | 8.86% | 2.26% | 0.31% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 108 | Jason Jung | 1458 | 43.62% | 16.18% | 5.01% | 1.06% | 0.12% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 109 | Benjamin Bonzi | 1492 | 50.46% | 14.96% | 6.79% | 1.65% | 0.21% | 0.04% | 0.00% |
| 110 | Emil Ruusuvuori | 1488 | 49.54% | 14.50% | 6.52% | 1.57% | 0.20% | 0.04% | 0.00% |
| 111 | Jannik Sinner | 1540 | 29.52% | 16.89% | 8.84% | 2.59% | 0.41% | 0.10% | 0.01% |
| 112 | David Goffin | 1691 | 70.48% | 53.65% | 38.74% | 18.53% | 5.04% | 2.10% | 0.55% |
| 113 | Fabio Fognini | 1621 | 64.11% | 43.19% | 23.08% | 4.27% | 1.76% | 0.58% | 0.12% |
| 114 | Mikhail Kukushkin | 1520 | 35.89% | 19.24% | 7.65% | 0.95% | 0.28% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 115 | Pedro Martinez | 1498 | 50.66% | 19.18% | 7.06% | 0.79% | 0.21% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 116 | Aleksandar Vukic | 1493 | 49.34% | 18.39% | 6.66% | 0.73% | 0.19% | 0.04% | 0.00% |
| 117 | Sebastian Korda | 1473 | 37.70% | 11.66% | 4.52% | 0.46% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 118 | Andreas Seppi | 1560 | 62.30% | 26.06% | 13.23% | 1.93% | 0.65% | 0.17% | 0.03% |
| 119 | Elliot Benchetrit | 1477 | 25.17% | 10.81% | 4.25% | 0.44% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 120 | John Isner | 1666 | 74.83% | 51.47% | 33.54% | 7.33% | 3.44% | 1.33% | 0.32% |
| 121 | Daniel Evans | 1605 | 34.99% | 24.07% | 3.76% | 1.95% | 0.76% | 0.24% | 0.04% |
| 122 | Kei Nishikori | 1712 | 65.01% | 52.25% | 12.03% | 7.96% | 4.22% | 1.87% | 0.53% |
| 123 | Pablo Andujar | 1472 | 51.38% | 12.41% | 1.15% | 0.39% | 0.09% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 124 | Stefano Travaglia | 1462 | 48.62% | 11.26% | 1.00% | 0.33% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 125 | Steven Diez | 1479 | 50.11% | 3.57% | 1.10% | 0.39% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 126 | Mackenzie McDonald | 1478 | 49.89% | 3.54% | 1.09% | 0.38% | 0.09% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 127 | Egor Gerasimov | 1595 | 8.60% | 5.69% | 2.58% | 1.30% | 0.49% | 0.15% | 0.03% |
| 128 | Rafael Nadal | 2005 | 91.40% | 87.20% | 77.30% | 70.40% | 59.60% | 47.01% | 29.15% |
