The 2nd week of the US Open is has started, so apologies for the late posts, but now it's time for me to update the predictions I made last week, with some new predictions for the rest of the tournament.
- Of the 4 favourites for the title before the tournament, 3 of them are still in. Karolina Pliskova was knocked out of the tournament by Caroline Garcia in the 2nd round.
- Garbine Muguruza had the easiest overall draw, but she unexpectedly lost her 2nd round match to Tsvetana Pironkova. Angelique Kerber now has the easiest overall draw relative to her ranking. Aryna Sabalenka has the toughest overall draw and lost in round 2 to Victoria Azarenka. Maria Sakkari now has the toughest draw of the players remaining.
But what about the future? Let's take a look at what the rest of the tournament looks like
- Serena Williams is the favourite for the title, with a 23.51% chance of winning the whole thing, with Naomi Osaka 2nd at 17.7%. The 3rd most likely winner is Petra Kvitova with 12.93%, and 4th is Sofia Kenin with 9.3%.
- As for the next match, it's Alize Cornet who has the easiest next match, as she's 22.81 percentage points more likely to make it to the quarter finals than a player of her ranking would expect. Anett Kontaveit has the toughest next match, as she's 24.63 percentage points less likely to win than her ranking would expect to do.
| # | Name | ELO | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jennifer Brady | 1649 | 43.99% | 20.68% | 6.35% | 2.15% |
| 2 | Angelique Kerber | 1691 | 56.01% | 29.66% | 10.65% | 4.18% |
| 3 | Yulia Putintseva | 1625 | 39.48% | 17.07% | 4.77% | 1.48% |
| 4 | Petra Martic | 1700 | 60.52% | 32.58% | 12.06% | 4.86% |
| 5 | Naomi Osaka | 1844 | 64.11% | 40.70% | 29.53% | 17.70% |
| 6 | Anett Kontaveit | 1743 | 35.89% | 18.01% | 10.76% | 4.98% |
| 7 | Shelby Rogers | 1535 | 19.09% | 3.36% | 1.04% | 0.22% |
| 8 | Petra Kvitova | 1786 | 80.91% | 37.93% | 24.83% | 12.93% |
| 9 | Alize Cornet | 1626 | 61.40% | 16.61% | 5.69% | 1.85% |
| 10 | Tsvetana Pironkova | 1546 | 38.60% | 7.39% | 1.83% | 0.43% |
| 11 | Maria Sakkari | 1692 | 28.61% | 18.13% | 7.81% | 3.18% |
| 12 | Serena Williams | 1851 | 71.39% | 57.87% | 37.71% | 23.51% |
| 13 | Victoria Azarenka | 1745 | 61.25% | 29.65% | 14.07% | 6.75% |
| 14 | Karolina Muchova | 1665 | 38.75% | 14.45% | 5.40% | 2.01% |
| 15 | Elise Mertens | 1725 | 42.38% | 21.86% | 9.82% | 4.45% |
| 16 | Sofia Kenin | 1779 | 57.62% | 34.04% | 17.67% | 9.30% |
