We now come to the final Grand Slam of the year, the French Open. Let's take a look at the draw for this tournament, and my predictions for the tournament, including who's most likely to win, and full probabilities for how likely each player is to make it to each round.
- Simona Halep is the most likely to win the tournament, with an 18.4% chance of winning the whole thing, with Serena Williams next at 12.82%. The 3rd most likely is Karolina Pliskova with 8.47% and Petra Kvitova 4th with 6.24%
- Kvitova also has the easiest overall draw, as she is 0.7 percentage points more likely to win the tournament than expected. On the other hand, Victoria Azarenka has a tough draw. She is 0.8 percentage points less likely to win the tournament than expected.
- The toughest 1st round draw went to Jessica Pegula, as she's 32.38 percentage points less likely to win than a player of her rank is expected to win. Ana Bogdan got the easiest 1st round draw, as she's 31.32 percentage points more likely to make it to round 2 than her ranking would expect.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # | Name | ELO | R1 % | R2 % | R3 % | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Simona Halep | 1870 | 91.39% | 80.59% | 67.30% | 54.23% | 41.16% | 26.55% | 18.40% |
| 2 | Sara Sorribes Tormo | 1459 | 8.61% | 3.57% | 1.18% | 0.35% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 3 | Irina-Camelia Begu | 1494 | 43.44% | 6.14% | 2.31% | 0.78% | 0.22% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 4 | Jil Teichmann | 1539 | 56.56% | 9.70% | 4.25% | 1.68% | 0.56% | 0.13% | 0.03% |
| 5 | Catherine Bellis | 1597 | 59.62% | 30.96% | 8.03% | 3.81% | 1.56% | 0.46% | 0.15% |
| 6 | Bernada Pera | 1529 | 40.38% | 17.18% | 3.47% | 1.33% | 0.43% | 0.10% | 0.02% |
| 7 | Tamara Korpatsch | 1490 | 31.51% | 12.24% | 2.12% | 0.70% | 0.19% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 8 | Amanda Anisimova | 1625 | 68.49% | 39.62% | 11.34% | 5.82% | 2.60% | 0.85% | 0.31% |
| 9 | Dayana Yastremska | 1680 | 70.29% | 51.31% | 31.21% | 11.85% | 6.18% | 2.43% | 1.07% |
| 10 | Daria Gavrilova | 1530 | 29.71% | 15.96% | 6.41% | 1.45% | 0.47% | 0.11% | 0.03% |
| 11 | Anna Kalinskaya | 1435 | 35.31% | 8.73% | 2.47% | 0.38% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 12 | Eugenie Bouchard | 1541 | 64.69% | 23.99% | 9.98% | 2.36% | 0.79% | 0.19% | 0.05% |
| 13 | Barbara Haas | 1420 | 27.51% | 6.60% | 1.79% | 0.26% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 14 | Hsieh Su-Wei | 1589 | 72.49% | 32.71% | 15.77% | 4.45% | 1.77% | 0.50% | 0.16% |
| 15 | Iga Swiatek | 1573 | 38.54% | 20.84% | 9.62% | 2.57% | 0.97% | 0.26% | 0.08% |
| 16 | Marketa Vondrousova | 1654 | 61.46% | 39.85% | 22.76% | 7.99% | 3.89% | 1.40% | 0.57% |
| 17 | Johanna Konta | 1681 | 59.90% | 37.65% | 22.51% | 11.90% | 4.86% | 1.92% | 0.85% |
| 18 | Coco Gauff | 1611 | 40.10% | 21.48% | 10.83% | 4.71% | 1.54% | 0.48% | 0.17% |
| 19 | Camila Giorgi | 1631 | 74.63% | 34.97% | 18.56% | 8.56% | 2.99% | 0.99% | 0.37% |
| 20 | Martina Trevisan | 1444 | 25.37% | 5.89% | 1.70% | 0.40% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 21 | Kamilla Rakhimova | 1490 | 41.68% | 12.60% | 3.86% | 1.10% | 0.23% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 22 | Shelby Rogers | 1548 | 58.32% | 21.83% | 8.28% | 2.93% | 0.76% | 0.18% | 0.05% |
| 23 | Ajla Tomljanovic | 1525 | 28.32% | 14.20% | 4.96% | 1.61% | 0.38% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 24 | Maria Sakkari | 1686 | 71.68% | 51.37% | 29.31% | 15.70% | 6.50% | 2.61% | 1.17% |
| 25 | Svetlana Kuznetsova | 1652 | 50.12% | 35.21% | 17.09% | 8.92% | 3.33% | 1.19% | 0.48% |
| 26 | Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova | 1651 | 49.88% | 34.98% | 16.95% | 8.82% | 3.28% | 1.17% | 0.47% |
| 27 | Katerina Siniakova | 1517 | 54.77% | 17.31% | 5.50% | 1.87% | 0.43% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 28 | Lauren Davis | 1484 | 45.23% | 12.50% | 3.51% | 1.05% | 0.21% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 29 | Monica Puig | 1556 | 56.74% | 18.15% | 7.77% | 3.03% | 0.81% | 0.20% | 0.06% |
| 30 | Sara Errani | 1509 | 43.26% | 11.62% | 4.25% | 1.40% | 0.31% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 31 | Katarina Zavatska | 1474 | 17.68% | 7.29% | 2.35% | 0.67% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 32 | Kiki Bertens | 1741 | 82.32% | 62.93% | 42.59% | 27.34% | 13.17% | 6.24% | 3.27% |
| 33 | Elina Svitolina | 1779 | 82.47% | 69.45% | 53.89% | 34.60% | 18.26% | 9.90% | 5.71% |
| 34 | Varvara Gracheva | 1510 | 17.53% | 9.33% | 4.07% | 1.19% | 0.26% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 35 | Renata Zarazua | 1474 | 46.33% | 9.27% | 3.60% | 0.91% | 0.17% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 36 | Elsa Jacquemot | 1500 | 53.67% | 11.95% | 5.05% | 1.42% | 0.29% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 37 | Anna Blinkova | 1520 | 57.07% | 23.74% | 6.92% | 2.11% | 0.47% | 0.11% | 0.03% |
| 38 | Astra Sharma | 1471 | 42.93% | 15.08% | 3.66% | 0.92% | 0.17% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 39 | Maddison Inglis | 1477 | 29.83% | 13.95% | 3.46% | 0.89% | 0.17% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 40 | Ekaterina Alexandrova | 1625 | 70.17% | 47.23% | 19.36% | 8.45% | 2.82% | 0.98% | 0.36% |
| 41 | Anett Kontaveit | 1729 | 71.40% | 52.67% | 31.62% | 17.94% | 8.29% | 3.95% | 2.01% |
| 42 | Caroline Garcia | 1570 | 28.60% | 15.15% | 5.91% | 2.17% | 0.59% | 0.17% | 0.05% |
| 43 | Aliaksandra Sasnovich | 1546 | 49.09% | 15.61% | 5.62% | 1.91% | 0.48% | 0.12% | 0.03% |
| 44 | Anna-Lena Friedsam | 1553 | 50.91% | 16.58% | 6.10% | 2.11% | 0.54% | 0.14% | 0.04% |
| 45 | Marie Bouzkova | 1552 | 49.47% | 15.95% | 5.95% | 2.06% | 0.52% | 0.14% | 0.04% |
| 46 | Kaia Kanepi | 1555 | 50.53% | 16.51% | 6.24% | 2.18% | 0.56% | 0.15% | 0.04% |
| 47 | Margarita Gasparyan | 1537 | 24.32% | 11.60% | 4.12% | 1.36% | 0.33% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 48 | Elise Mertens | 1735 | 75.68% | 55.94% | 34.46% | 19.79% | 9.28% | 4.49% | 2.31% |
| 49 | Victoria Azarenka | 1777 | 86.70% | 64.93% | 48.87% | 26.50% | 15.87% | 8.56% | 4.91% |
| 50 | Danka Kovinic | 1451 | 13.30% | 4.40% | 1.51% | 0.29% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 51 | Anna Karolina Schmiedlova | 1454 | 27.17% | 4.99% | 1.73% | 0.34% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 52 | Venus Williams | 1625 | 72.83% | 25.68% | 14.67% | 5.31% | 2.11% | 0.73% | 0.27% |
| 53 | Greet Minnen | 1479 | 55.27% | 18.06% | 4.09% | 0.89% | 0.21% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 54 | Nadia Podoroska | 1442 | 44.73% | 12.69% | 2.47% | 0.46% | 0.09% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 55 | Kirsten Flipkens | 1491 | 28.04% | 15.18% | 3.62% | 0.83% | 0.20% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 56 | Yulia Putintseva | 1655 | 71.96% | 54.07% | 23.04% | 9.12% | 3.97% | 1.52% | 0.62% |
| 57 | Barbora Strycova | 1579 | 72.11% | 44.76% | 12.14% | 4.37% | 1.48% | 0.44% | 0.14% |
| 58 | Varvara Lepchenko | 1414 | 27.89% | 10.85% | 1.50% | 0.29% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 59 | Nina Stojanovic | 1461 | 42.16% | 16.91% | 2.88% | 0.67% | 0.14% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 60 | Barbora Krejcikova | 1516 | 57.84% | 27.49% | 5.87% | 1.69% | 0.45% | 0.10% | 0.03% |
| 61 | Tsvetana Pironkova | 1555 | 48.85% | 10.11% | 5.49% | 1.82% | 0.57% | 0.15% | 0.04% |
| 62 | Andrea Petkovic | 1563 | 51.15% | 10.93% | 6.06% | 2.06% | 0.66% | 0.18% | 0.05% |
| 63 | Kristie Ahn | 1492 | 11.48% | 4.64% | 2.11% | 0.55% | 0.13% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 64 | Serena Williams | 1847 | 88.52% | 74.32% | 63.96% | 44.81% | 30.74% | 19.28% | 12.82% |
| 65 | Aryna Sabalenka | 1755 | 71.71% | 55.09% | 40.64% | 25.11% | 15.11% | 8.47% | 3.94% |
| 66 | Jessica Pegula | 1593 | 28.29% | 16.15% | 8.59% | 3.47% | 1.34% | 0.47% | 0.12% |
| 67 | Daria Kasatkina | 1580 | 65.35% | 21.48% | 11.05% | 4.28% | 1.59% | 0.53% | 0.13% |
| 68 | Harmony Tan | 1470 | 34.65% | 7.28% | 2.65% | 0.69% | 0.17% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 69 | Nao Hibino | 1538 | 55.86% | 23.51% | 7.73% | 2.59% | 0.83% | 0.23% | 0.05% |
| 70 | Marta Kostyuk | 1497 | 44.14% | 16.17% | 4.56% | 1.31% | 0.36% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 71 | Zarina Diyas | 1511 | 32.86% | 16.02% | 4.77% | 1.45% | 0.42% | 0.11% | 0.02% |
| 72 | Ons Jabeur | 1635 | 67.14% | 44.30% | 20.00% | 9.19% | 4.06% | 1.63% | 0.51% |
| 73 | Jennifer Brady | 1665 | 73.41% | 46.76% | 23.05% | 11.97% | 5.76% | 2.53% | 0.88% |
| 74 | Clara Tauson | 1488 | 26.59% | 10.48% | 2.93% | 0.86% | 0.23% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 75 | Monica Niculescu | 1491 | 34.40% | 11.41% | 3.22% | 0.96% | 0.26% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 76 | Danielle Collins | 1603 | 65.60% | 31.36% | 12.98% | 5.68% | 2.27% | 0.82% | 0.23% |
| 77 | Viktoria Kuzmova | 1505 | 44.86% | 11.36% | 4.10% | 1.29% | 0.36% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 78 | Kristyna Pliskova | 1541 | 55.14% | 16.04% | 6.55% | 2.34% | 0.76% | 0.22% | 0.05% |
| 79 | Tamara Zidansek | 1507 | 19.57% | 9.28% | 3.38% | 1.07% | 0.30% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| 80 | Garbine Muguruza | 1753 | 80.43% | 63.32% | 43.78% | 27.75% | 16.63% | 9.28% | 4.28% |
| 81 | Elena Rybakina | 1729 | 75.84% | 55.75% | 38.15% | 22.45% | 12.67% | 6.67% | 2.88% |
| 82 | Sorana Cirstea | 1531 | 24.16% | 11.37% | 4.79% | 1.61% | 0.49% | 0.14% | 0.03% |
| 83 | Fiona Ferro | 1575 | 58.13% | 20.76% | 9.98% | 3.89% | 1.40% | 0.46% | 0.11% |
| 84 | Heather Watson | 1518 | 41.87% | 12.13% | 4.90% | 1.58% | 0.46% | 0.12% | 0.02% |
| 85 | Stefanie Vogele | 1382 | 27.01% | 5.91% | 1.12% | 0.21% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 86 | Patricia Maria Tig | 1555 | 72.99% | 30.72% | 11.51% | 4.20% | 1.40% | 0.42% | 0.10% |
| 87 | Christina McHale | 1492 | 27.87% | 13.29% | 3.98% | 1.17% | 0.31% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 88 | Karolina Muchova | 1658 | 72.13% | 50.08% | 25.56% | 12.66% | 5.92% | 2.54% | 0.86% |
| 89 | Donna Vekic | 1605 | 69.21% | 39.53% | 16.19% | 7.25% | 2.88% | 1.04% | 0.29% |
| 90 | Irina Bara | 1464 | 30.79% | 11.46% | 2.95% | 0.81% | 0.19% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 91 | Alison Van Uytvanck | 1549 | 48.20% | 23.19% | 7.99% | 2.99% | 0.98% | 0.29% | 0.06% |
| 92 | Rebecca Peterson | 1561 | 51.80% | 25.82% | 9.26% | 3.61% | 1.24% | 0.38% | 0.09% |
| 93 | Timea Babos | 1408 | 41.51% | 6.87% | 2.01% | 0.44% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 94 | Ana Bogdan | 1468 | 58.49% | 12.49% | 4.58% | 1.27% | 0.30% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 95 | Liudmila Samsonova | 1478 | 16.72% | 9.19% | 3.49% | 1.01% | 0.25% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 96 | Sofia Kenin | 1757 | 83.28% | 71.45% | 53.54% | 34.85% | 20.96% | 11.82% | 5.54% |
| 97 | Petra Kvitova | 1770 | 83.12% | 68.85% | 53.68% | 35.43% | 21.65% | 12.86% | 6.24% |
| 98 | Oceane Dodin | 1493 | 16.88% | 8.36% | 3.53% | 1.06% | 0.28% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 99 | Aliona Bolsova | 1510 | 54.42% | 13.11% | 5.85% | 1.87% | 0.53% | 0.14% | 0.03% |
| 100 | Jasmine Paolini | 1479 | 45.58% | 9.68% | 3.91% | 1.11% | 0.28% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 101 | Diane Parry | 1494 | 42.38% | 17.12% | 4.65% | 1.40% | 0.37% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 102 | Polona Hercog | 1547 | 57.62% | 27.58% | 9.05% | 3.31% | 1.07% | 0.32% | 0.07% |
| 103 | Leylah Annie Fernandez | 1516 | 39.33% | 19.21% | 5.66% | 1.86% | 0.54% | 0.14% | 0.03% |
| 104 | Magda Linette | 1591 | 60.67% | 36.09% | 13.69% | 5.80% | 2.20% | 0.78% | 0.21% |
| 105 | Angelique Kerber | 1665 | 74.10% | 53.81% | 27.34% | 13.74% | 6.51% | 2.94% | 1.02% |
| 106 | Kaja Juvan | 1482 | 25.90% | 12.46% | 3.44% | 0.97% | 0.25% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 107 | Arantxa Rus | 1505 | 52.96% | 18.49% | 5.58% | 1.72% | 0.48% | 0.12% | 0.02% |
| 108 | Clara Burel | 1485 | 47.04% | 15.24% | 4.25% | 1.21% | 0.31% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 109 | Chloe Paquet | 1469 | 30.14% | 7.00% | 2.43% | 0.65% | 0.16% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 110 | Alize Cornet | 1615 | 69.86% | 28.17% | 15.21% | 6.68% | 2.73% | 1.05% | 0.31% |
| 111 | Zhang Shuai | 1562 | 27.37% | 13.32% | 6.24% | 2.33% | 0.80% | 0.26% | 0.06% |
| 112 | Madison Keys | 1732 | 72.63% | 51.51% | 35.50% | 20.86% | 11.73% | 6.37% | 2.76% |
| 113 | Petra Martic | 1676 | 81.04% | 54.25% | 32.55% | 15.77% | 7.72% | 3.60% | 1.30% |
| 114 | Misaki Doi | 1424 | 18.96% | 6.29% | 1.64% | 0.34% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 115 | Pauline Parmentier | 1453 | 30.94% | 8.61% | 2.54% | 0.59% | 0.13% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 116 | Veronika Kudermetova | 1592 | 69.06% | 30.85% | 14.86% | 5.66% | 2.15% | 0.76% | 0.20% |
| 117 | Laura Siegemund | 1566 | 47.40% | 19.59% | 8.44% | 2.95% | 1.02% | 0.33% | 0.08% |
| 118 | Kristina Mladenovic | 1584 | 52.60% | 23.07% | 10.50% | 3.90% | 1.44% | 0.50% | 0.13% |
| 119 | Julia Gorges | 1639 | 53.88% | 31.84% | 16.89% | 7.40% | 3.26% | 1.36% | 0.43% |
| 120 | Alison Riske | 1612 | 46.12% | 25.50% | 12.58% | 5.10% | 2.06% | 0.79% | 0.23% |
| 121 | Sloane Stephens | 1557 | 71.13% | 42.58% | 12.45% | 5.11% | 1.72% | 0.54% | 0.12% |
| 122 | Vitalia Diatchenko | 1400 | 28.87% | 10.89% | 1.67% | 0.37% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 123 | Kateryna Kozlova | 1479 | 47.67% | 21.63% | 4.66% | 1.44% | 0.36% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| 124 | Paula Badosa | 1495 | 52.33% | 24.91% | 5.74% | 1.89% | 0.50% | 0.12% | 0.02% |
| 125 | Jelena Ostapenko | 1626 | 71.57% | 23.85% | 15.77% | 7.99% | 3.38% | 1.35% | 0.41% |
| 126 | Madison Brengle | 1465 | 28.43% | 5.08% | 2.24% | 0.66% | 0.16% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 127 | Mayar Sherif | 1492 | 14.80% | 5.62% | 2.69% | 0.88% | 0.23% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 128 | Karolina Pliskova | 1796 | 85.20% | 65.45% | 54.79% | 39.94% | 25.85% | 16.26% | 8.47% |
