The 2nd week of the US Open is has started, so apologies for the late posts, but now it's time for me to update the predictions I made last week, with some new predictions for the rest of the tournament.
- Of the 4 favourites for the title before the tournament, 3 of them are still in. Stefanos Tsitsipas was knocked out of the tournament by Borna Coric in the 3rd round.
- Matteo Berrettini had the easiest overall draw, and is still in the tournament, but his draw for the rest of the tournament is fairer now, with Borna Coric now having the easiest overall draw relative to his ranking. Andrey Rublev has survived his tough draw so far, but it's now Pablo Carreno Busta now who has the toughest draw relative to his ranking.
- Marco Cecchinato had the easiest 1st round draw, but ended up losing his match to Lloyd Harris. The player who had the toughest 1st round draw, Albert Ramos-Vinolas lost his first round match to Tsitsipas as expected.
But what about the future? Let's take a look at what the rest of the tournament looks like
- Novak Djokovic is the favourite for the title, with a 51.55% chance of winning the whole thing, with Dominic Thiem 2nd at 15.5%. The 3rd most likely winner is Alexander Zverev with 8.83%, and 4th is Daniil Medvedev with 8.65%.
- As for the next match, it's Borna Coric who has the easiest next match, as he's 25.24 percentage points more likely to make it to the quarter finals than a player of his ranking would expect. Pablo Carreno Busta has the toughest next match, as he's 35.76 percentage points less likely to win than his ranking would expect to do.
| # | Name | ELO | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novak Djokovic | 2030 | 87.92% | 76.62% | 65.18% | 51.55% |
| 2 | Pablo Carreno Busta | 1685 | 12.08% | 5.84% | 2.71% | 0.98% |
| 3 | Denis Shapovalov | 1675 | 44.52% | 7.11% | 3.21% | 1.12% |
| 4 | David Goffin | 1713 | 55.48% | 10.42% | 5.24% | 2.07% |
| 5 | Borna Coric | 1638 | 62.39% | 22.82% | 3.89% | 1.17% |
| 6 | Jordan Thompson | 1550 | 37.61% | 10.03% | 1.17% | 0.24% |
| 7 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 1509 | 17.05% | 6.26% | 0.60% | 0.10% |
| 8 | Alexander Zverev | 1783 | 82.95% | 60.90% | 17.99% | 8.83% |
| 9 | Matteo Berrettini | 1734 | 47.84% | 22.31% | 9.72% | 2.70% |
| 10 | Andrey Rublev | 1749 | 52.16% | 25.38% | 11.56% | 3.38% |
| 11 | Frances Tiafoe | 1568 | 20.50% | 5.52% | 1.34% | 0.19% |
| 12 | Daniil Medvedev | 1804 | 79.50% | 46.79% | 24.72% | 8.65% |
| 13 | Vasek Pospisil | 1595 | 37.15% | 8.38% | 2.36% | 0.38% |
| 14 | Alex De Minaur | 1686 | 62.85% | 20.40% | 8.06% | 1.88% |
| 15 | Felix Auger-Aliassime | 1682 | 25.74% | 13.95% | 5.44% | 1.25% |
| 16 | Dominic Thiem | 1866 | 74.26% | 57.27% | 36.81% | 15.50% |
