Tomorrow, the 3rd Grand Slam tournament of the year, Wimbledon, begins. Let's take a look at the draw for this tournament, and my predictions for the tournament, including who's most likely to win, and full probabilities for how likely each player is to make it to each round.
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- Rafael Nadal is the most likely to win the tournament, with a 38.14% chance of winning the whole thing, with Novak Djokovic next at 27.99%. The 3rd most likely is Carlos Alcaraz with 6.59% and Stefanos Tsitsipas is the 4th favourite with 5.91%
- Felix Auger-Aliassime has the easiest overall draw, as he is 0.28 percentage points more likely to win the tournament than expected. On the other hand, Jannik Sinner has a tough draw. He is 0.56 percentage points less likely to win the tournament than expected.
- The toughest 1st round draw went to Francisco Cerundolo, as he's 43.27 percentage points less likely to win than a player of his rank is expected to win. Quentin Halys got the easiest 1st round draw, as he's 41.47 percentage points more likely to make it to round 2 than his ranking would expect.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # | Name | ELO | R1 % | R2 % | R3 % | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novak Djokovic | 2005 | 93.69% | 87.35% | 80.14% | 73.84% | 56.77% | 46.66% | 27.99% |
| 2 | Kwon Soon-Woo | 1536 | 6.31% | 3.07% | 1.34% | 0.62% | 0.13% | 0.04% | 0.00% |
| 3 | Thanasi Kokkinakis | 1578 | 62.48% | 6.83% | 3.38% | 1.75% | 0.45% | 0.14% | 0.02% |
| 4 | Kamil Majchrzak | 1489 | 37.52% | 2.75% | 1.02% | 0.41% | 0.07% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 5 | Alejandro Tabilo | 1526 | 43.83% | 17.43% | 1.94% | 0.86% | 0.18% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 6 | Laslo Djere | 1569 | 56.17% | 25.68% | 3.40% | 1.72% | 0.43% | 0.13% | 0.02% |
| 7 | John Millman | 1538 | 36.47% | 17.59% | 2.06% | 0.95% | 0.21% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 8 | Miomir Kecmanovic | 1634 | 63.53% | 39.29% | 6.71% | 3.98% | 1.26% | 0.48% | 0.09% |
| 9 | Nikoloz Basilashvili | 1587 | 68.15% | 50.17% | 25.55% | 4.29% | 1.14% | 0.37% | 0.06% |
| 10 | Lukas Rosol | 1455 | 31.85% | 18.03% | 5.98% | 0.59% | 0.09% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 11 | Benoit Paire | 1419 | 53.22% | 17.60% | 5.09% | 0.43% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 12 | Quentin Halys | 1397 | 46.78% | 14.20% | 3.75% | 0.28% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 13 | Tim van Rijthoven | 1562 | 61.12% | 27.24% | 15.65% | 2.39% | 0.58% | 0.17% | 0.02% |
| 14 | Federico Delbonis | 1483 | 38.88% | 13.29% | 6.22% | 0.69% | 0.12% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 15 | Carlos Taberner | 1504 | 30.85% | 14.21% | 7.04% | 0.85% | 0.16% | 0.04% | 0.00% |
| 16 | Reilly Opelka | 1644 | 69.15% | 45.26% | 30.72% | 6.35% | 2.08% | 0.82% | 0.17% |
| 17 | Jannik Sinner | 1776 | 63.55% | 51.44% | 32.44% | 16.33% | 5.74% | 3.26% | 1.07% |
| 18 | Stan Wawrinka | 1680 | 36.45% | 25.89% | 12.93% | 5.04% | 1.33% | 0.58% | 0.14% |
| 19 | Daniel Altmaier | 1457 | 35.90% | 5.96% | 1.35% | 0.24% | 0.03% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 20 | Mikael Ymer | 1557 | 64.10% | 16.71% | 5.63% | 1.48% | 0.26% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 21 | Andy Murray | 1721 | 78.22% | 47.31% | 25.09% | 10.97% | 3.28% | 1.62% | 0.44% |
| 22 | James Duckworth | 1499 | 21.78% | 6.83% | 1.76% | 0.37% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 23 | Enzo Couacuad | 1491 | 24.26% | 6.58% | 1.64% | 0.34% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 24 | John Isner | 1689 | 75.74% | 39.28% | 19.16% | 7.67% | 2.08% | 0.94% | 0.23% |
| 25 | Oscar Otte | 1595 | 61.90% | 41.64% | 10.80% | 3.76% | 0.75% | 0.25% | 0.04% |
| 26 | Peter Gojowczyk | 1511 | 38.10% | 21.30% | 3.99% | 1.00% | 0.15% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 27 | Jay Clarke | 1445 | 43.77% | 14.81% | 2.10% | 0.40% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 28 | Christian Harrison | 1488 | 56.23% | 22.25% | 3.80% | 0.87% | 0.12% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 29 | Tallon Griekspoor | 1517 | 39.06% | 6.12% | 2.93% | 0.76% | 0.11% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 30 | Fabio Fognini | 1594 | 60.94% | 13.15% | 7.72% | 2.68% | 0.53% | 0.17% | 0.03% |
| 31 | Jan-Lennard Struff | 1514 | 11.15% | 4.79% | 2.28% | 0.58% | 0.09% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 32 | Carlos Alcaraz | 1874 | 88.85% | 75.94% | 66.37% | 47.50% | 21.65% | 14.98% | 6.59% |
| 33 | Casper Ruud | 1820 | 83.08% | 70.96% | 57.51% | 44.36% | 29.33% | 11.30% | 4.24% |
| 34 | Albert Ramos Vinolas | 1543 | 16.92% | 9.27% | 4.38% | 1.83% | 0.56% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| 35 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry | 1453 | 37.46% | 5.74% | 2.01% | 0.61% | 0.13% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 36 | Ugo Humbert | 1542 | 62.54% | 14.04% | 6.62% | 2.76% | 0.83% | 0.11% | 0.01% |
| 37 | David Goffin | 1609 | 67.56% | 40.40% | 13.79% | 7.01% | 2.68% | 0.48% | 0.08% |
| 38 | Radu Albot | 1481 | 32.44% | 13.64% | 2.94% | 0.99% | 0.23% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 39 | Taro Daniel | 1471 | 35.49% | 13.06% | 2.70% | 0.88% | 0.20% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 40 | Sebastian Baez | 1575 | 64.51% | 32.90% | 10.03% | 4.63% | 1.57% | 0.25% | 0.04% |
| 41 | Frances Tiafoe | 1611 | 64.95% | 42.51% | 20.56% | 7.74% | 2.98% | 0.54% | 0.10% |
| 42 | Andrea Vavassori | 1504 | 35.05% | 17.85% | 6.06% | 1.57% | 0.41% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 43 | Maximilian Marterer | 1413 | 32.80% | 9.44% | 2.22% | 0.40% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 44 | Aljaz Bedene | 1537 | 67.20% | 30.20% | 11.57% | 3.40% | 1.01% | 0.13% | 0.02% |
| 45 | Alexander Bublik | 1587 | 47.49% | 21.13% | 11.62% | 4.05% | 1.44% | 0.24% | 0.04% |
| 46 | Marton Fucsovics | 1605 | 52.51% | 24.60% | 14.12% | 5.21% | 1.97% | 0.35% | 0.06% |
| 47 | Dusan Lajovic | 1486 | 25.35% | 8.78% | 3.60% | 0.87% | 0.21% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 48 | Pablo Carreno Busta | 1674 | 74.65% | 45.49% | 30.25% | 13.68% | 6.40% | 1.49% | 0.34% |
| 49 | Cameron Norrie | 1751 | 82.62% | 66.23% | 43.93% | 27.05% | 15.40% | 4.75% | 1.43% |
| 50 | Pablo Andujar | 1480 | 17.38% | 8.00% | 2.52% | 0.69% | 0.17% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 51 | Thiago Monteiro | 1522 | 54.36% | 14.76% | 5.39% | 1.73% | 0.50% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 52 | Jaume Munar | 1491 | 45.64% | 11.01% | 3.61% | 1.04% | 0.27% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 53 | Ryan Peniston | 1534 | 58.32% | 19.23% | 6.39% | 2.15% | 0.65% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| 54 | Henri Laaksonen | 1476 | 41.68% | 10.95% | 2.95% | 0.80% | 0.19% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 55 | Steve Johnson | 1542 | 27.77% | 15.16% | 5.18% | 1.79% | 0.56% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| 56 | Grigor Dimitrov | 1708 | 72.23% | 54.66% | 30.04% | 16.85% | 8.68% | 2.30% | 0.59% |
| 57 | Tommy Paul | 1642 | 68.81% | 44.50% | 19.99% | 8.99% | 3.86% | 0.79% | 0.16% |
| 58 | Fernando Verdasco | 1504 | 31.19% | 14.18% | 4.03% | 1.14% | 0.31% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 59 | Adrian Mannarino | 1559 | 57.82% | 25.69% | 8.90% | 3.07% | 1.01% | 0.15% | 0.02% |
| 60 | Max Purcell | 1504 | 42.18% | 15.64% | 4.45% | 1.26% | 0.34% | 0.04% | 0.00% |
| 61 | Federico Coria | 1530 | 55.89% | 14.33% | 6.18% | 1.93% | 0.57% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 62 | Jiri Vesely | 1489 | 44.11% | 9.50% | 3.57% | 0.95% | 0.24% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 63 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 1608 | 28.51% | 18.09% | 9.77% | 3.97% | 1.54% | 0.28% | 0.05% |
| 64 | Hubert Hurkacz | 1768 | 71.49% | 58.09% | 43.11% | 26.59% | 15.71% | 5.13% | 1.63% |
| 65 | Matteo Berrettini | 1831 | 78.48% | 68.91% | 56.71% | 42.37% | 25.34% | 9.67% | 4.16% |
| 66 | Christian Garin | 1606 | 21.52% | 14.29% | 8.10% | 3.75% | 1.18% | 0.22% | 0.04% |
| 67 | Marc-Andrea Husler | 1490 | 50.77% | 8.63% | 3.51% | 1.11% | 0.22% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 68 | Hugo Grenier | 1485 | 49.23% | 8.17% | 3.26% | 1.01% | 0.20% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 69 | Zdenek Kolar | 1501 | 43.91% | 17.83% | 4.05% | 1.33% | 0.28% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 70 | Benjamin Bonzi | 1543 | 56.09% | 26.00% | 6.93% | 2.64% | 0.66% | 0.09% | 0.01% |
| 71 | Mikhail Kukushkin | 1449 | 27.78% | 10.92% | 2.02% | 0.54% | 0.09% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 72 | Jenson Brooksby | 1615 | 72.22% | 45.24% | 15.42% | 7.32% | 2.38% | 0.45% | 0.09% |
| 73 | Alex De Minaur | 1667 | 79.41% | 54.37% | 30.73% | 13.42% | 5.20% | 1.18% | 0.29% |
| 74 | Hugo Dellien | 1433 | 20.59% | 7.48% | 2.06% | 0.40% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 75 | Zizou Bergs | 1490 | 40.17% | 13.25% | 4.49% | 1.09% | 0.22% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 76 | Jack Draper | 1559 | 59.83% | 24.89% | 10.57% | 3.29% | 0.87% | 0.13% | 0.02% |
| 77 | Liam Broady | 1476 | 48.58% | 13.43% | 4.52% | 1.04% | 0.19% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 78 | Lukas Klein | 1486 | 51.42% | 14.77% | 5.15% | 1.23% | 0.24% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 79 | Stefan Kozlov | 1467 | 20.67% | 9.92% | 3.23% | 0.72% | 0.13% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 80 | Diego Schwartzman | 1701 | 79.33% | 61.88% | 39.25% | 18.75% | 8.05% | 2.06% | 0.58% |
| 81 | Denis Shapovalov | 1630 | 61.05% | 37.22% | 18.88% | 5.81% | 2.26% | 0.45% | 0.10% |
| 82 | Arthur Rinderknech | 1551 | 38.95% | 19.55% | 7.89% | 1.80% | 0.54% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| 83 | Brandon Nakashima | 1589 | 66.20% | 32.18% | 14.59% | 3.87% | 1.32% | 0.23% | 0.04% |
| 84 | Nicola Kuhn | 1473 | 33.80% | 11.06% | 3.39% | 0.56% | 0.12% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 85 | Daniel Elahi Galan | 1492 | 42.02% | 12.09% | 4.50% | 0.80% | 0.19% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 86 | Dominik Koepfer | 1548 | 57.98% | 20.52% | 9.20% | 2.07% | 0.61% | 0.09% | 0.01% |
| 87 | Attila Balazs | 1511 | 24.72% | 11.89% | 4.73% | 0.92% | 0.23% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 88 | Roberto Bautista Agut | 1704 | 75.28% | 55.50% | 36.83% | 14.61% | 7.08% | 1.83% | 0.52% |
| 89 | Filip Krajinovic | 1632 | 68.65% | 27.97% | 8.71% | 4.49% | 1.76% | 0.35% | 0.08% |
| 90 | Jiri Lehecka | 1495 | 31.35% | 7.88% | 1.51% | 0.50% | 0.12% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 91 | Paul Jubb | 1477 | 17.64% | 6.14% | 1.09% | 0.34% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 92 | Nick Kyrgios | 1745 | 82.36% | 58.01% | 25.44% | 16.91% | 9.08% | 2.68% | 0.88% |
| 93 | Roberto Carballes Baena | 1466 | 43.45% | 5.85% | 1.41% | 0.42% | 0.09% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 94 | Jordan Thompson | 1512 | 56.55% | 9.29% | 2.69% | 0.95% | 0.24% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 95 | Alexander Ritschard | 1500 | 11.25% | 5.75% | 1.59% | 0.54% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 96 | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 1859 | 88.75% | 79.10% | 57.56% | 45.41% | 30.83% | 12.70% | 5.91% |
| 97 | Felix Auger-Aliassime | 1748 | 75.47% | 59.81% | 47.72% | 31.52% | 8.65% | 4.07% | 1.35% |
| 98 | Maxime Cressy | 1553 | 24.53% | 13.61% | 7.78% | 3.12% | 0.43% | 0.10% | 0.02% |
| 99 | Bernabe Zapata Miralles | 1488 | 43.28% | 10.29% | 4.96% | 1.59% | 0.17% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 100 | Jack Sock | 1535 | 56.72% | 16.29% | 8.91% | 3.37% | 0.43% | 0.10% | 0.01% |
| 101 | Dennis Novak | 1401 | 47.64% | 14.90% | 3.01% | 0.68% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 102 | Facundo Bagnis | 1417 | 52.36% | 17.44% | 3.78% | 0.91% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 103 | Jason Kubler | 1480 | 36.71% | 22.02% | 6.13% | 1.91% | 0.19% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 104 | Daniel Evans | 1574 | 63.29% | 45.64% | 17.72% | 7.63% | 1.14% | 0.30% | 0.05% |
| 105 | Holger Rune | 1588 | 54.07% | 27.63% | 12.14% | 5.38% | 0.84% | 0.23% | 0.04% |
| 106 | Marcos Giron | 1559 | 45.93% | 21.62% | 8.72% | 3.55% | 0.50% | 0.12% | 0.02% |
| 107 | Pedro Martinez | 1548 | 42.06% | 19.40% | 7.54% | 2.96% | 0.40% | 0.09% | 0.01% |
| 108 | Alex Molcan | 1603 | 57.94% | 31.34% | 14.41% | 6.67% | 1.11% | 0.32% | 0.06% |
| 109 | Alastair Gray | 1481 | 52.48% | 13.21% | 4.80% | 1.51% | 0.15% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 110 | Tseng Chun-hsin | 1463 | 47.52% | 11.12% | 3.79% | 1.12% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 111 | Lorenzo Musetti | 1569 | 29.37% | 18.66% | 9.06% | 3.80% | 0.55% | 0.14% | 0.02% |
| 112 | Taylor Fritz | 1721 | 70.63% | 57.01% | 39.55% | 24.27% | 6.10% | 2.66% | 0.80% |
| 113 | Marin Cilic | 1714 | 68.69% | 49.24% | 33.00% | 7.34% | 4.23% | 1.80% | 0.53% |
| 114 | Mackenzie McDonald | 1577 | 31.31% | 16.94% | 8.25% | 1.14% | 0.45% | 0.12% | 0.02% |
| 115 | Joao Sousa | 1454 | 31.38% | 7.19% | 2.32% | 0.20% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 116 | Richard Gasquet | 1590 | 68.62% | 26.63% | 13.43% | 1.94% | 0.80% | 0.22% | 0.04% |
| 117 | Emil Ruusuvuori | 1584 | 62.18% | 30.46% | 12.94% | 1.83% | 0.74% | 0.20% | 0.04% |
| 118 | Yoshihito Nishioka | 1498 | 37.82% | 14.23% | 4.48% | 0.46% | 0.14% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 119 | Feliciano Lopez | 1419 | 22.16% | 7.10% | 1.63% | 0.12% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 120 | Botic van de Zandschulp | 1638 | 77.84% | 48.21% | 23.95% | 4.11% | 1.95% | 0.65% | 0.14% |
| 121 | Lorenzo Sonego | 1571 | 65.53% | 35.89% | 4.07% | 1.70% | 0.66% | 0.17% | 0.03% |
| 122 | Denis Kudla | 1459 | 34.47% | 13.46% | 0.96% | 0.27% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 123 | Alexei Popyrin | 1495 | 39.96% | 17.87% | 1.49% | 0.48% | 0.14% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 124 | Hugo Gaston | 1565 | 60.04% | 32.79% | 3.64% | 1.49% | 0.57% | 0.14% | 0.02% |
| 125 | Sam Querrey | 1523 | 53.75% | 3.88% | 1.85% | 0.66% | 0.22% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 126 | Ricardas Berankis | 1497 | 46.25% | 2.96% | 1.30% | 0.42% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 127 | Francisco Cerundolo | 1536 | 5.31% | 2.85% | 1.41% | 0.52% | 0.18% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 128 | Rafael Nadal | 2037 | 94.69% | 90.31% | 85.29% | 77.33% | 68.78% | 55.73% | 38.14% |
