The 1st round of Wimbledon has almost finished, so let's take a look at how that affected my rankings of the players still in (The numbers assume that the higher ranked player will win for the remaining matches) and also how well I expect them to do for the rest of the tournament.
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View my pre-tournament predictions for the Men and the Women here, but before the latest rankings, some stats I calculated for the top 150 players (completed matches only):
| Rank | ± Men | ± Wmn |
|---|---|---|
| 1-10 | 10 | -14 |
| 11-20 | -5 | 2 |
| 21-50 | 56 | -35 |
| 51-100 | 35 | 22 |
| 101-150 | -58 | 68 |
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Now, my latest Men's ratings and predictions:
| # | Name | ELO | R2 % | R3 % | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novak Djokovic | 2006 | 91.84% | 83.31% | 75.71% | 56.88% | 46.91% | 27.52% |
| 2 | Thanasi Kokkinakis | 1585 | 8.16% | 3.86% | 1.85% | 0.44% | 0.14% | 0.02% |
| 3 | Alejandro Tabilo | 1537 | 35.40% | 3.29% | 1.35% | 0.26% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 4 | Miomir Kecmanovic | 1641 | 64.60% | 9.53% | 5.31% | 1.57% | 0.62% | 0.12% |
| 5 | Nikoloz Basilashvili | 1594 | 74.49% | 34.54% | 5.21% | 1.28% | 0.43% | 0.07% |
| 6 | Quentin Halys | 1407 | 25.51% | 5.88% | 0.39% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 7 | Tim van Rijthoven | 1570 | 38.65% | 20.50% | 2.81% | 0.62% | 0.19% | 0.03% |
| 8 | Reilly Opelka | 1650 | 61.35% | 39.08% | 7.36% | 2.25% | 0.92% | 0.19% |
| 9 | Jannik Sinner | 1784 | 77.94% | 46.99% | 22.09% | 7.53% | 4.41% | 1.44% |
| 10 | Mikael Ymer | 1564 | 22.06% | 6.64% | 1.53% | 0.25% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| 11 | Andy Murray | 1725 | 54.49% | 26.30% | 10.48% | 2.98% | 1.52% | 0.41% |
| 12 | John Isner | 1694 | 45.51% | 20.06% | 7.26% | 1.87% | 0.87% | 0.21% |
| 13 | Oscar Otte | 1603 | 64.73% | 14.42% | 4.62% | 0.86% | 0.30% | 0.05% |
| 14 | Christian Harrison | 1497 | 35.27% | 5.05% | 1.05% | 0.13% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 15 | Tallon Griekspoor | 1529 | 11.89% | 5.33% | 1.27% | 0.18% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 16 | Carlos Alcaraz | 1877 | 88.11% | 75.21% | 51.70% | 22.88% | 15.99% | 6.87% |
| 17 | Casper Ruud | 1823 | 82.81% | 64.81% | 51.72% | 36.40% | 13.76% | 5.07% |
| 18 | Ugo Humbert | 1550 | 17.19% | 7.36% | 3.38% | 1.18% | 0.15% | 0.02% |
| 19 | David Goffin | 1615 | 54.75% | 16.10% | 8.85% | 3.84% | 0.67% | 0.12% |
| 20 | Sebastian Baez | 1582 | 45.25% | 11.73% | 5.91% | 2.31% | 0.35% | 0.05% |
| 21 | Frances Tiafoe | 1618 | 75.07% | 43.35% | 14.82% | 6.49% | 1.14% | 0.20% |
| 22 | Maximilian Marterer | 1426 | 24.93% | 7.88% | 1.25% | 0.27% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 23 | Alexander Bublik | 1598 | 63.57% | 34.02% | 10.84% | 4.46% | 0.72% | 0.12% |
| 24 | Dusan Lajovic | 1501 | 36.43% | 14.75% | 3.24% | 0.95% | 0.10% | 0.01% |
| 25 | Cameron Norrie | 1754 | 81.02% | 61.91% | 43.09% | 23.89% | 7.17% | 2.12% |
| 26 | Jaume Munar | 1502 | 18.98% | 8.19% | 2.91% | 0.73% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| 27 | Ryan Peniston | 1543 | 47.98% | 13.95% | 5.70% | 1.68% | 0.21% | 0.03% |
| 28 | Steve Johnson | 1557 | 52.02% | 15.94% | 6.82% | 2.11% | 0.28% | 0.04% |
| 29 | Tommy Paul | 1648 | 61.35% | 36.24% | 16.85% | 7.05% | 1.41% | 0.28% |
| 30 | Adrian Mannarino | 1568 | 38.65% | 18.51% | 6.72% | 2.16% | 0.31% | 0.04% |
| 31 | Jiri Vesely | 1501 | 33.12% | 11.27% | 3.22% | 0.81% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| 32 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 1623 | 66.88% | 33.98% | 14.68% | 5.68% | 1.02% | 0.19% |
| 33 | Christian Garin | 1611 | 66.12% | 34.80% | 14.98% | 4.50% | 0.80% | 0.15% |
| 34 | Hugo Grenier | 1495 | 33.88% | 12.34% | 3.50% | 0.65% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 35 | Benjamin Bonzi | 1552 | 40.30% | 19.01% | 6.70% | 1.59% | 0.22% | 0.03% |
| 36 | Jenson Brooksby | 1620 | 59.70% | 33.86% | 14.99% | 4.66% | 0.85% | 0.17% |
| 37 | Alex De Minaur | 1671 | 64.57% | 33.35% | 20.50% | 7.62% | 1.67% | 0.41% |
| 38 | Jack Draper | 1567 | 35.43% | 13.41% | 6.29% | 1.59% | 0.24% | 0.04% |
| 39 | Liam Broady | 1486 | 22.11% | 6.67% | 2.39% | 0.43% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 40 | Diego Schwartzman | 1705 | 77.89% | 46.56% | 30.66% | 12.70% | 3.12% | 0.87% |
| 41 | Denis Shapovalov | 1637 | 55.90% | 25.98% | 7.55% | 3.74% | 0.73% | 0.16% |
| 42 | Brandon Nakashima | 1596 | 44.10% | 18.08% | 4.46% | 1.96% | 0.33% | 0.06% |
| 43 | Daniel Elahi Galan | 1503 | 23.40% | 7.95% | 1.31% | 0.42% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 44 | Roberto Bautista Agut | 1709 | 76.60% | 48.00% | 18.08% | 10.76% | 2.68% | 0.76% |
| 45 | Filip Krajinovic | 1638 | 34.64% | 9.42% | 4.49% | 2.23% | 0.43% | 0.09% |
| 46 | Nick Kyrgios | 1748 | 65.36% | 26.01% | 16.34% | 10.56% | 2.99% | 0.97% |
| 47 | Jordan Thompson | 1521 | 12.36% | 3.16% | 1.02% | 0.35% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 48 | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 1861 | 87.64% | 61.41% | 46.75% | 36.25% | 14.31% | 6.59% |
| 49 | Maxime Cressy | 1568 | 53.52% | 34.62% | 13.03% | 1.72% | 0.49% | 0.08% |
| 50 | Jack Sock | 1543 | 46.48% | 28.55% | 9.87% | 1.18% | 0.30% | 0.04% |
| 51 | Dennis Novak | 1411 | 38.51% | 11.66% | 2.37% | 0.16% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 52 | Jason Kubler | 1492 | 61.49% | 25.17% | 7.19% | 0.70% | 0.14% | 0.02% |
| 53 | Marcos Giron | 1570 | 44.05% | 15.62% | 8.82% | 1.18% | 0.34% | 0.05% |
| 54 | Alex Molcan | 1612 | 55.95% | 22.75% | 14.14% | 2.22% | 0.74% | 0.14% |
| 55 | Alastair Gray | 1490 | 20.35% | 7.25% | 3.28% | 0.31% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 56 | Taylor Fritz | 1727 | 79.65% | 54.39% | 41.31% | 9.81% | 4.71% | 1.42% |
| 57 | Mackenzie McDonald | 1585 | 48.42% | 21.77% | 2.58% | 1.15% | 0.35% | 0.06% |
| 58 | Richard Gasquet | 1596 | 51.58% | 24.00% | 2.97% | 1.36% | 0.43% | 0.08% |
| 59 | Emil Ruusuvuori | 1592 | 42.84% | 21.48% | 2.61% | 1.19% | 0.37% | 0.07% |
| 60 | Botic van de Zandschulp | 1642 | 57.16% | 32.75% | 4.86% | 2.53% | 0.94% | 0.21% |
| 61 | Lorenzo Sonego | 1578 | 50.61% | 4.56% | 2.08% | 0.91% | 0.27% | 0.04% |
| 62 | Hugo Gaston | 1573 | 49.39% | 4.37% | 1.97% | 0.85% | 0.24% | 0.04% |
| 63 | Ricardas Berankis | 1508 | 4.51% | 1.82% | 0.66% | 0.23% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 64 | Rafael Nadal | 2038 | 95.49% | 89.26% | 82.28% | 74.51% | 61.95% | 42.13% |
And my latest Women's ratings and predictions:
| # | Name | ELO | R2 % | R3 % | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iga Swiatek | 1960 | 94.99% | 85.86% | 72.09% | 57.15% | 43.72% | 32.16% |
| 2 | Lesley Pattinama Kerkhove | 1449 | 5.01% | 1.70% | 0.42% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 3 | Claire Liu | 1510 | 37.20% | 3.54% | 1.10% | 0.26% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 4 | Alize Cornet | 1601 | 62.80% | 8.89% | 3.76% | 1.29% | 0.39% | 0.11% |
| 5 | Ajla Tomljanovic | 1596 | 64.72% | 24.22% | 4.16% | 1.40% | 0.42% | 0.12% |
| 6 | Catherine Harrison | 1491 | 35.28% | 8.87% | 0.99% | 0.22% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 7 | Viktorija Golubic | 1552 | 25.69% | 12.58% | 1.81% | 0.52% | 0.13% | 0.03% |
| 8 | Barbora Krejcikova | 1736 | 74.31% | 54.33% | 15.68% | 8.21% | 3.94% | 1.79% |
| 9 | Garbine Muguruza | 1707 | 72.66% | 36.69% | 18.54% | 5.40% | 2.37% | 0.98% |
| 10 | Zheng Qinwen | 1537 | 27.34% | 7.63% | 2.28% | 0.34% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 11 | Bianca Andreescu | 1731 | 59.99% | 35.71% | 19.19% | 6.08% | 2.88% | 1.29% |
| 12 | Elena Rybakina | 1661 | 40.01% | 19.97% | 8.92% | 2.21% | 0.83% | 0.30% |
| 13 | Petra Martic | 1578 | 65.26% | 19.42% | 6.63% | 1.19% | 0.33% | 0.09% |
| 14 | Kristina Kucova | 1468 | 34.74% | 6.66% | 1.46% | 0.16% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 15 | Harriet Dart | 1527 | 18.61% | 8.96% | 2.51% | 0.36% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 16 | Jessica Pegula | 1783 | 81.39% | 64.96% | 40.47% | 15.14% | 8.25% | 4.26% |
| 17 | Paula Badosa | 1762 | 85.71% | 55.02% | 29.69% | 16.77% | 6.29% | 3.06% |
| 18 | Irina Bara | 1450 | 14.29% | 3.56% | 0.72% | 0.14% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 19 | Ana Bogdan | 1486 | 22.58% | 5.07% | 1.18% | 0.26% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 20 | Petra Kvitova | 1701 | 77.42% | 36.35% | 16.84% | 8.10% | 2.47% | 1.01% |
| 21 | Magdalena Frech | 1446 | 44.27% | 7.03% | 1.30% | 0.24% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 22 | Anna Karolina Schmiedlova | 1486 | 55.73% | 10.50% | 2.31% | 0.51% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 23 | Kirsten Flipkens | 1491 | 14.21% | 7.58% | 1.71% | 0.39% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 24 | Simona Halep | 1804 | 85.79% | 74.89% | 46.25% | 28.72% | 12.24% | 6.65% |
| 25 | Coco Gauff | 1769 | 81.67% | 47.53% | 32.26% | 16.84% | 6.47% | 3.22% |
| 26 | Mihaela Buzarnescu | 1510 | 18.33% | 4.70% | 1.57% | 0.33% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 27 | Lauren Davis | 1527 | 21.28% | 5.49% | 1.94% | 0.44% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 28 | Amanda Anisimova | 1754 | 78.72% | 42.29% | 27.88% | 13.95% | 5.10% | 2.43% |
| 29 | Sara Sorribes Tormo | 1621 | 71.52% | 32.57% | 11.12% | 3.63% | 0.82% | 0.25% |
| 30 | Harmony Tan | 1461 | 28.48% | 7.29% | 1.29% | 0.22% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 31 | Katie Boulter | 1551 | 30.30% | 14.11% | 3.69% | 0.92% | 0.16% | 0.04% |
| 32 | Karolina Pliskova | 1696 | 69.70% | 46.03% | 20.24% | 8.54% | 2.57% | 1.03% |
| 33 | Marie Bouzkova | 1585 | 49.00% | 24.00% | 12.05% | 3.14% | 0.99% | 0.20% |
| 34 | Ann Li | 1592 | 51.00% | 25.48% | 13.04% | 3.49% | 1.12% | 0.23% |
| 35 | Maja Chwalinska | 1512 | 33.49% | 13.14% | 5.25% | 1.02% | 0.24% | 0.04% |
| 36 | Alison Riske | 1632 | 66.51% | 37.37% | 21.24% | 6.59% | 2.44% | 0.60% |
| 37 | Zhang Shuai | 1572 | 52.68% | 24.37% | 11.39% | 2.83% | 0.84% | 0.16% |
| 38 | Marta Kostyuk | 1553 | 47.32% | 20.65% | 9.11% | 2.10% | 0.58% | 0.10% |
| 39 | Caroline Garcia | 1622 | 58.43% | 34.17% | 18.44% | 5.54% | 1.99% | 0.47% |
| 40 | Emma Raducanu | 1563 | 41.57% | 20.81% | 9.48% | 2.27% | 0.66% | 0.12% |
| 41 | Angelique Kerber | 1723 | 67.42% | 44.38% | 17.76% | 12.05% | 5.91% | 2.05% |
| 42 | Magda Linette | 1597 | 32.58% | 16.00% | 4.27% | 2.16% | 0.71% | 0.15% |
| 43 | Panna Udvardy | 1446 | 23.68% | 4.97% | 0.75% | 0.23% | 0.04% | 0.00% |
| 44 | Elise Mertens | 1650 | 76.32% | 34.65% | 11.03% | 6.41% | 2.52% | 0.67% |
| 45 | Diane Parry | 1483 | 44.83% | 6.23% | 1.67% | 0.58% | 0.12% | 0.02% |
| 46 | Mai Hontama | 1519 | 55.17% | 8.96% | 2.76% | 1.10% | 0.27% | 0.04% |
| 47 | Katarzyna Kawa | 1482 | 9.86% | 4.63% | 1.23% | 0.43% | 0.09% | 0.01% |
| 48 | Ons Jabeur | 1866 | 90.14% | 80.18% | 60.54% | 50.06% | 33.90% | 17.94% |
| 49 | Maria Sakkari | 1764 | 86.28% | 64.31% | 40.71% | 23.70% | 12.28% | 4.88% |
| 50 | Viktoriya Tomova | 1445 | 13.72% | 4.46% | 1.04% | 0.22% | 0.04% | 0.00% |
| 51 | Tatjana Maria | 1507 | 35.43% | 8.52% | 2.55% | 0.69% | 0.15% | 0.02% |
| 52 | Sorana Cirstea | 1611 | 64.57% | 22.72% | 9.74% | 3.79% | 1.25% | 0.28% |
| 53 | Elisabetta Cocciaretto | 1459 | 28.09% | 6.36% | 1.41% | 0.32% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 54 | Irina-Camelia Begu | 1622 | 71.91% | 29.71% | 11.97% | 4.82% | 1.65% | 0.39% |
| 55 | Yanina Wickmayer | 1514 | 22.15% | 9.18% | 2.54% | 0.71% | 0.16% | 0.02% |
| 56 | Jelena Ostapenko | 1733 | 77.85% | 54.75% | 30.04% | 16.29% | 7.79% | 2.79% |
| 57 | Wang Qiang | 1578 | 66.76% | 38.23% | 11.57% | 3.87% | 1.14% | 0.22% |
| 58 | Heather Watson | 1457 | 33.24% | 13.35% | 2.48% | 0.51% | 0.09% | 0.01% |
| 59 | Dalma Galfi | 1484 | 40.02% | 17.03% | 3.56% | 0.83% | 0.17% | 0.02% |
| 60 | Kaja Juvan | 1555 | 59.98% | 31.39% | 8.71% | 2.67% | 0.72% | 0.13% |
| 61 | Anhelina Kalinina | 1638 | 61.64% | 20.50% | 13.05% | 5.35% | 1.93% | 0.49% |
| 62 | Lesia Tsurenko | 1555 | 38.36% | 9.41% | 4.93% | 1.51% | 0.41% | 0.07% |
| 63 | Jule Niemeier | 1499 | 14.41% | 5.07% | 2.25% | 0.55% | 0.12% | 0.02% |
| 64 | Anett Kontaveit | 1808 | 85.59% | 65.01% | 53.45% | 34.17% | 19.61% | 8.89% |
