Tomorrow, the 3rd Grand Slam tournament of the year, Wimbledon, begins. Let's take a look at the draw for this tournament, and my predictions for the tournament, including who's most likely to win, and full probabilities for how likely each player is to make it to each round.
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- Iga Swiatek is the most likely to win the tournament, with a 31.12% chance of winning the whole thing, with Ons Jabeur next at 14.9%. The 3rd most likely is Anett Kontaveit with 7.09% and Serena Williams is the 4th favourite with 4.96%
- Jelena Ostapenko has the easiest overall draw, as she is 0.78 percentage points more likely to win the tournament than expected. On the other hand, Coco Gauff has a tough draw. She is 0.76 percentage points less likely to win the tournament than expected.
- The toughest 1st round draw went to Donna Vekic, as she's 36.63 percentage points less likely to win than a player of her rank is expected to win. Chloe Paquet got the easiest 1st round draw, as she's 39.87 percentage points more likely to make it to round 2 than her ranking would expect.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # | Name | ELO | R1 % | R2 % | R3 % | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iga Swiatek | 1959 | 94.75% | 88.67% | 79.04% | 67.23% | 54.62% | 41.81% | 31.12% |
| 2 | Jana Fett | 1457 | 5.25% | 2.34% | 0.77% | 0.21% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 3 | Sonay Kartal | 1494 | 49.91% | 4.48% | 1.69% | 0.52% | 0.13% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 4 | Danka Kovinic | 1494 | 50.09% | 4.51% | 1.70% | 0.53% | 0.13% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 5 | Claire Liu | 1500 | 51.39% | 16.89% | 1.99% | 0.63% | 0.16% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 6 | Nuria Parrizas Diaz | 1490 | 48.61% | 15.39% | 1.74% | 0.53% | 0.13% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 7 | Alize Cornet | 1589 | 41.26% | 26.06% | 4.35% | 1.86% | 0.67% | 0.20% | 0.06% |
| 8 | Yulia Putintseva | 1650 | 58.74% | 41.66% | 8.73% | 4.45% | 1.96% | 0.72% | 0.25% |
| 9 | Jil Teichmann | 1637 | 57.48% | 41.16% | 19.37% | 4.43% | 1.88% | 0.66% | 0.22% |
| 10 | Ajla Tomljanovic | 1585 | 42.52% | 27.68% | 11.12% | 2.10% | 0.75% | 0.22% | 0.06% |
| 11 | Catherine Harrison | 1481 | 51.38% | 16.31% | 4.53% | 0.57% | 0.14% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 12 | Arantxa Rus | 1472 | 48.62% | 14.86% | 3.97% | 0.48% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 13 | Viktorija Golubic | 1541 | 44.69% | 13.96% | 6.36% | 1.01% | 0.31% | 0.07% | 0.02% |
| 14 | Andrea Petkovic | 1578 | 55.31% | 19.68% | 9.97% | 1.83% | 0.64% | 0.18% | 0.05% |
| 15 | Maryna Zanevska | 1471 | 18.17% | 6.79% | 2.46% | 0.29% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 16 | Barbora Krejcikova | 1733 | 81.83% | 59.57% | 42.22% | 13.34% | 7.38% | 3.53% | 1.62% |
| 17 | Garbine Muguruza | 1703 | 81.58% | 55.97% | 30.38% | 16.60% | 5.19% | 2.27% | 0.95% |
| 18 | Greet Minnen | 1445 | 18.42% | 6.14% | 1.37% | 0.33% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 19 | Zheng Qinwen | 1525 | 40.24% | 13.21% | 4.09% | 1.32% | 0.21% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 20 | Sloane Stephens | 1594 | 59.76% | 24.68% | 9.74% | 3.95% | 0.84% | 0.25% | 0.07% |
| 21 | Emina Bektas | 1477 | 19.15% | 6.16% | 1.81% | 0.49% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 22 | Bianca Andreescu | 1728 | 80.85% | 53.03% | 32.90% | 19.01% | 6.44% | 3.03% | 1.37% |
| 23 | Coco Vandeweghe | 1510 | 30.29% | 8.62% | 2.87% | 0.88% | 0.13% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 24 | Elena Rybakina | 1655 | 69.71% | 32.19% | 16.85% | 8.15% | 2.17% | 0.81% | 0.29% |
| 25 | Shelby Rogers | 1622 | 58.00% | 38.91% | 16.08% | 6.91% | 1.63% | 0.54% | 0.17% |
| 26 | Petra Martic | 1566 | 42.00% | 25.07% | 8.67% | 3.08% | 0.59% | 0.16% | 0.04% |
| 27 | Kristina Kucova | 1456 | 40.24% | 12.35% | 2.84% | 0.66% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 28 | Laura Pigossi | 1525 | 59.76% | 23.68% | 7.09% | 2.17% | 0.35% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 29 | Rebeka Masarova | 1485 | 45.32% | 9.35% | 3.65% | 0.95% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 30 | Harriet Dart | 1518 | 54.68% | 12.97% | 5.63% | 1.67% | 0.26% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 31 | Donna Vekic | 1587 | 25.01% | 15.48% | 8.23% | 3.15% | 0.65% | 0.19% | 0.05% |
| 32 | Jessica Pegula | 1778 | 74.99% | 62.20% | 47.82% | 30.69% | 12.11% | 6.55% | 3.41% |
| 33 | Paula Badosa | 1759 | 86.45% | 75.33% | 51.49% | 30.09% | 15.77% | 6.21% | 3.07% |
| 34 | Louisa Chirico | 1437 | 13.55% | 6.99% | 1.89% | 0.39% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 35 | Irina Bara | 1441 | 54.88% | 10.33% | 2.84% | 0.59% | 0.10% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 36 | Chloe Paquet | 1407 | 45.12% | 7.35% | 1.76% | 0.32% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 37 | Ana Bogdan | 1474 | 37.19% | 10.17% | 2.65% | 0.63% | 0.12% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 38 | Dayana Yastremska | 1565 | 62.81% | 24.10% | 8.55% | 2.88% | 0.80% | 0.16% | 0.04% |
| 39 | Jasmine Paolini | 1541 | 29.17% | 14.97% | 4.91% | 1.52% | 0.38% | 0.07% | 0.02% |
| 40 | Petra Kvitova | 1695 | 70.83% | 50.76% | 25.90% | 12.96% | 5.66% | 1.82% | 0.74% |
| 41 | Camila Giorgi | 1645 | 77.49% | 51.99% | 21.11% | 9.30% | 3.46% | 0.93% | 0.32% |
| 42 | Magdalena Frech | 1430 | 22.51% | 8.44% | 1.55% | 0.31% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 43 | Rebecca Peterson | 1550 | 60.78% | 26.36% | 7.78% | 2.51% | 0.65% | 0.12% | 0.03% |
| 44 | Anna Karolina Schmiedlova | 1474 | 39.22% | 13.21% | 2.91% | 0.70% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 45 | Kirsten Flipkens | 1482 | 52.43% | 9.09% | 3.35% | 0.84% | 0.16% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 46 | Jaimee Fourlis | 1465 | 47.57% | 7.61% | 2.64% | 0.62% | 0.11% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 47 | Karolina Muchova | 1686 | 34.57% | 26.69% | 17.14% | 8.48% | 3.60% | 1.12% | 0.45% |
| 48 | Simona Halep | 1797 | 65.43% | 56.61% | 43.52% | 27.86% | 16.04% | 7.05% | 3.84% |
| 49 | Coco Gauff | 1766 | 80.28% | 66.56% | 41.45% | 23.29% | 13.11% | 5.27% | 2.65% |
| 50 | Elena-Gabriela Ruse | 1522 | 19.72% | 10.72% | 3.42% | 0.89% | 0.23% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 51 | Mihaela Buzarnescu | 1500 | 52.89% | 12.48% | 3.69% | 0.89% | 0.21% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 52 | Nastasja Schunk | 1480 | 47.11% | 10.23% | 2.81% | 0.62% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 53 | Madison Brengle | 1498 | 47.24% | 11.71% | 3.31% | 0.79% | 0.18% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 54 | Lauren Davis | 1517 | 52.76% | 14.09% | 4.28% | 1.10% | 0.27% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 55 | Wang Xinyu | 1483 | 17.68% | 8.22% | 2.21% | 0.49% | 0.11% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 56 | Amanda Anisimova | 1751 | 82.32% | 65.98% | 38.84% | 21.07% | 11.43% | 4.39% | 2.12% |
| 57 | Sara Sorribes Tormo | 1616 | 76.11% | 23.23% | 11.76% | 4.41% | 1.60% | 0.39% | 0.12% |
| 58 | Christina McHale | 1415 | 23.89% | 3.25% | 0.82% | 0.14% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 59 | Serena Williams | 1805 | 88.92% | 69.81% | 51.87% | 32.28% | 19.85% | 8.92% | 4.96% |
| 60 | Harmony Tan | 1443 | 11.08% | 3.71% | 1.05% | 0.20% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 61 | Clara Burel | 1487 | 42.04% | 12.19% | 2.59% | 0.60% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 62 | Katie Boulter | 1543 | 57.96% | 20.75% | 5.49% | 1.59% | 0.44% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 63 | Tereza Martincova | 1554 | 31.44% | 17.28% | 4.77% | 1.44% | 0.42% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 64 | Karolina Pliskova | 1690 | 68.56% | 49.78% | 21.65% | 10.18% | 4.68% | 1.48% | 0.60% |
| 65 | Danielle Collins | 1741 | 72.82% | 53.53% | 38.38% | 28.30% | 13.64% | 7.00% | 2.66% |
| 66 | Marie Bouzkova | 1570 | 27.18% | 13.85% | 6.81% | 3.51% | 0.98% | 0.29% | 0.06% |
| 67 | Lucia Bronzetti | 1538 | 43.55% | 12.87% | 5.75% | 2.70% | 0.67% | 0.17% | 0.03% |
| 68 | Ann Li | 1583 | 56.45% | 19.74% | 10.05% | 5.36% | 1.58% | 0.49% | 0.10% |
| 69 | Katerina Siniakova | 1582 | 61.64% | 30.87% | 12.22% | 6.51% | 1.91% | 0.59% | 0.12% |
| 70 | Maja Chwalinska | 1500 | 38.36% | 14.91% | 4.40% | 1.84% | 0.39% | 0.09% | 0.01% |
| 71 | Ylena In-Albon | 1474 | 29.44% | 11.55% | 3.07% | 1.17% | 0.22% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 72 | Alison Riske | 1626 | 70.56% | 42.67% | 19.32% | 11.46% | 3.90% | 1.41% | 0.35% |
| 73 | Zhang Shuai | 1565 | 68.57% | 39.64% | 19.35% | 7.70% | 2.12% | 0.61% | 0.12% |
| 74 | Misaki Doi | 1430 | 31.43% | 12.23% | 3.75% | 0.90% | 0.14% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 75 | Marta Kostyuk | 1546 | 64.29% | 34.17% | 15.74% | 5.87% | 1.50% | 0.40% | 0.07% |
| 76 | Katie Swan | 1444 | 35.71% | 13.96% | 4.52% | 1.15% | 0.19% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 77 | Caroline Garcia | 1616 | 67.49% | 38.96% | 24.34% | 11.33% | 3.73% | 1.30% | 0.31% |
| 78 | Yuriko Miyazaki | 1489 | 32.51% | 12.90% | 5.79% | 1.76% | 0.36% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| 79 | Alison Van Uytvanck | 1570 | 52.46% | 25.85% | 14.53% | 5.87% | 1.64% | 0.48% | 0.10% |
| 80 | Emma Raducanu | 1553 | 47.54% | 22.29% | 11.99% | 4.58% | 1.20% | 0.33% | 0.06% |
| 81 | Angelique Kerber | 1719 | 76.25% | 54.49% | 37.33% | 16.16% | 10.18% | 4.91% | 1.73% |
| 82 | Kristina Mladenovic | 1516 | 23.75% | 10.49% | 4.32% | 0.95% | 0.34% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| 83 | Magda Linette | 1589 | 62.04% | 24.14% | 12.40% | 3.58% | 1.63% | 0.52% | 0.11% |
| 84 | Fernanda Contreras | 1504 | 37.96% | 10.88% | 4.31% | 0.90% | 0.31% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 85 | Tamara Zidansek | 1549 | 66.14% | 27.47% | 10.30% | 2.57% | 1.04% | 0.28% | 0.05% |
| 86 | Panna Udvardy | 1433 | 33.86% | 9.09% | 2.20% | 0.34% | 0.09% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 87 | Camila Osorio | 1556 | 37.89% | 21.37% | 8.20% | 2.10% | 0.87% | 0.24% | 0.05% |
| 88 | Elise Mertens | 1642 | 62.11% | 42.07% | 20.94% | 7.20% | 3.81% | 1.45% | 0.39% |
| 89 | Kaia Kanepi | 1626 | 71.19% | 41.21% | 12.26% | 6.03% | 3.06% | 1.10% | 0.28% |
| 90 | Diane Parry | 1469 | 28.81% | 10.41% | 1.74% | 0.51% | 0.15% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 91 | Clara Tauson | 1605 | 63.86% | 34.02% | 9.44% | 4.38% | 2.09% | 0.70% | 0.16% |
| 92 | Mai Hontama | 1507 | 36.14% | 14.37% | 2.78% | 0.93% | 0.32% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 93 | Rebecca Marino | 1506 | 54.99% | 8.53% | 3.32% | 1.11% | 0.38% | 0.09% | 0.01% |
| 94 | Katarzyna Kawa | 1471 | 45.01% | 6.00% | 2.06% | 0.60% | 0.18% | 0.04% | 0.00% |
| 95 | Mirjam Bjorklund | 1488 | 10.29% | 5.12% | 1.87% | 0.58% | 0.19% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 96 | Ons Jabeur | 1864 | 89.71% | 80.35% | 66.52% | 52.05% | 41.16% | 27.73% | 14.90% |
| 97 | Maria Sakkari | 1760 | 81.33% | 63.02% | 48.89% | 32.42% | 17.47% | 9.26% | 3.74% |
| 98 | Zoe Hives | 1505 | 18.67% | 8.45% | 3.81% | 1.28% | 0.30% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 99 | Daria Saville | 1583 | 70.61% | 23.25% | 13.02% | 5.65% | 1.77% | 0.55% | 0.12% |
| 100 | Viktoriya Tomova | 1431 | 29.39% | 5.28% | 1.86% | 0.47% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 101 | Astra Sharma | 1485 | 48.27% | 18.81% | 4.92% | 1.54% | 0.33% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 102 | Tatjana Maria | 1497 | 51.73% | 20.99% | 5.76% | 1.88% | 0.42% | 0.10% | 0.01% |
| 103 | Aleksandra Krunic | 1487 | 33.74% | 16.67% | 4.40% | 1.39% | 0.30% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 104 | Sorana Cirstea | 1604 | 66.26% | 43.54% | 17.34% | 8.01% | 2.71% | 0.91% | 0.21% |
| 105 | Martina Trevisan | 1539 | 63.09% | 28.63% | 10.47% | 3.70% | 0.99% | 0.26% | 0.05% |
| 106 | Elisabetta Cocciaretto | 1446 | 36.91% | 12.23% | 3.21% | 0.81% | 0.15% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 107 | Ekaterine Gorgodze | 1470 | 30.17% | 13.61% | 3.91% | 1.08% | 0.22% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 108 | Irina-Camelia Begu | 1616 | 69.83% | 45.54% | 20.98% | 9.43% | 3.32% | 1.16% | 0.28% |
| 109 | Yanina Wickmayer | 1506 | 58.74% | 16.37% | 7.11% | 2.24% | 0.52% | 0.12% | 0.02% |
| 110 | Zhu Lin | 1445 | 41.26% | 9.00% | 3.18% | 0.79% | 0.14% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 111 | Oceane Dodin | 1476 | 18.89% | 9.31% | 3.66% | 1.03% | 0.21% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 112 | Jelena Ostapenko | 1729 | 81.11% | 65.32% | 47.47% | 28.28% | 14.06% | 6.88% | 2.51% |
| 113 | Belinda Bencic | 1775 | 77.30% | 66.53% | 49.08% | 28.71% | 18.15% | 9.96% | 4.21% |
| 114 | Wang Qiang | 1562 | 22.70% | 14.64% | 6.86% | 2.22% | 0.79% | 0.23% | 0.04% |
| 115 | Tamara Korpatsch | 1470 | 53.40% | 10.54% | 3.66% | 0.84% | 0.21% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 116 | Heather Watson | 1446 | 46.60% | 8.29% | 2.64% | 0.55% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 117 | Maddison Inglis | 1475 | 50.11% | 15.02% | 3.81% | 0.90% | 0.23% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 118 | Dalma Galfi | 1474 | 49.89% | 14.91% | 3.78% | 0.88% | 0.23% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 119 | Kaja Juvan | 1541 | 32.58% | 19.37% | 6.23% | 1.88% | 0.62% | 0.17% | 0.03% |
| 120 | Beatriz Haddad Maia | 1667 | 67.42% | 50.71% | 23.93% | 10.74% | 5.27% | 2.17% | 0.64% |
| 121 | Anhelina Kalinina | 1631 | 66.39% | 43.13% | 16.24% | 7.08% | 3.13% | 1.15% | 0.29% |
| 122 | Anna Bondar | 1513 | 33.61% | 16.31% | 4.13% | 1.22% | 0.36% | 0.09% | 0.01% |
| 123 | Jodie Burrage | 1490 | 41.87% | 15.12% | 3.52% | 0.95% | 0.26% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 124 | Lesia Tsurenko | 1547 | 58.13% | 25.45% | 7.28% | 2.42% | 0.81% | 0.22% | 0.04% |
| 125 | Jule Niemeier | 1489 | 51.84% | 9.80% | 3.82% | 1.03% | 0.28% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 126 | Wang Xiyu | 1476 | 48.16% | 8.63% | 3.22% | 0.83% | 0.21% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 127 | Bernada Pera | 1480 | 13.34% | 6.62% | 2.51% | 0.65% | 0.17% | 0.04% | 0.00% |
| 128 | Anett Kontaveit | 1806 | 86.66% | 74.96% | 59.29% | 39.09% | 26.17% | 15.36% | 7.09% |
