The 1st Grand Slam of the season is starting on Monday, and for the next 2 weeks, I will publish round-by-round updates. After the jump, you will find my pre-tournament predictions for the upcoming tournament.
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- Novak Djokovic is the most likely to win the tournament, with a 43.99% chance of winning the whole thing, with Rafael Nadal next at 15.59%. The 3rd most likely is Alexander Zverev with 9.53% and Daniil Medvedev 4th with 5.19%
- Cameron Norrie has the easiest overall draw, as he is 0.39 percentage points more likely to win the tournament than expected. On the other hand, Matteo Berrettini has a tough draw. He is 0.74 percentage points less likely to win the tournament than expected.
- Jack Draper has the toughest 1st round match, as he's 51.92 percentage points less likely to win than a player of his rank is expected to win. Tomas Martin Etcheverry got the easiest 1st round draw, as he's 39.14 percentage points more likely to make it to round 2 than his ranking would expect.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # | Name | ELO | R1 % | R2 % | R3 % | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael Nadal | 1956 | 85.91% | 75.72% | 67.91% | 56.73% | 42.19% | 31.64% | 15.59% |
| 2 | Jack Draper | 1642 | 14.09% | 7.76% | 4.62% | 2.18% | 0.77% | 0.27% | 0.05% |
| 3 | Brandon Nakashima | 1626 | 56.69% | 10.17% | 5.84% | 2.64% | 0.88% | 0.29% | 0.05% |
| 4 | Mackenzie McDonald | 1580 | 43.31% | 6.34% | 3.23% | 1.26% | 0.35% | 0.10% | 0.01% |
| 5 | Jaume Munar | 1484 | 47.72% | 15.43% | 1.91% | 0.53% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 6 | Dalibor Svcrina | 1500 | 52.28% | 17.95% | 2.38% | 0.70% | 0.14% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 7 | Mikael Ymer | 1599 | 46.46% | 30.16% | 6.06% | 2.52% | 0.76% | 0.23% | 0.03% |
| 8 | Yoshihito Nishioka | 1624 | 53.54% | 36.45% | 8.05% | 3.61% | 1.20% | 0.39% | 0.06% |
| 9 | Karen Khachanov | 1715 | 80.96% | 61.24% | 37.15% | 12.88% | 5.73% | 2.55% | 0.58% |
| 10 | Bernabe Zapata Miralles | 1464 | 19.04% | 8.04% | 2.32% | 0.32% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 11 | Sebastian Baez | 1521 | 50.85% | 15.79% | 5.60% | 0.99% | 0.22% | 0.05% | 0.00% |
| 12 | Jason Kubler | 1515 | 49.15% | 14.93% | 5.19% | 0.89% | 0.19% | 0.04% | 0.00% |
| 13 | Oscar Otte | 1550 | 61.27% | 21.52% | 8.34% | 1.65% | 0.41% | 0.10% | 0.01% |
| 14 | Shang Juncheng | 1470 | 38.73% | 10.20% | 2.99% | 0.43% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 15 | Daniel Altmaier | 1417 | 15.87% | 5.69% | 1.35% | 0.15% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 16 | Frances Tiafoe | 1706 | 84.13% | 62.60% | 37.07% | 12.52% | 5.42% | 2.34% | 0.52% |
| 17 | Hubert Hurkacz | 1741 | 78.38% | 61.11% | 40.53% | 18.93% | 7.43% | 3.56% | 0.90% |
| 18 | Pedro Martinez | 1518 | 21.62% | 10.69% | 4.06% | 0.88% | 0.16% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 19 | Lorenzo Sonego | 1536 | 54.53% | 16.22% | 6.52% | 1.52% | 0.29% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 20 | Nuno Borges | 1504 | 45.47% | 11.97% | 4.35% | 0.89% | 0.15% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 21 | Ernesto Escobedo | 1449 | 47.33% | 11.92% | 2.99% | 0.49% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 22 | Taro Daniel | 1468 | 52.67% | 14.28% | 3.86% | 0.68% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 23 | Dusan Lajovic | 1474 | 21.64% | 11.29% | 3.12% | 0.57% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 24 | Denis Shapovalov | 1698 | 78.36% | 62.52% | 34.57% | 14.25% | 4.90% | 2.07% | 0.44% |
| 25 | Sebastian Korda | 1731 | 69.38% | 51.37% | 22.52% | 13.14% | 5.00% | 2.33% | 0.57% |
| 26 | Cristian Garin | 1589 | 30.62% | 17.14% | 4.80% | 1.90% | 0.45% | 0.13% | 0.02% |
| 27 | Yosuke Watanuki | 1493 | 37.76% | 9.51% | 1.84% | 0.52% | 0.08% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 28 | Arthur Rinderknech | 1580 | 62.24% | 21.98% | 5.94% | 2.28% | 0.52% | 0.14% | 0.02% |
| 29 | John Millman | 1523 | 46.61% | 8.12% | 2.70% | 0.85% | 0.15% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 30 | Marc-Andrea Husler | 1547 | 53.39% | 10.29% | 3.72% | 1.28% | 0.25% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 31 | Marcos Giron | 1584 | 16.91% | 9.61% | 3.93% | 1.53% | 0.35% | 0.10% | 0.01% |
| 32 | Daniil Medvedev | 1860 | 83.09% | 71.97% | 54.55% | 40.29% | 21.50% | 13.73% | 5.19% |
| 33 | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 1834 | 91.90% | 79.48% | 63.00% | 42.88% | 28.90% | 14.17% | 4.94% |
| 34 | Quentin Halys | 1412 | 8.10% | 2.93% | 0.77% | 0.14% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 35 | Yannick Hanfmann | 1526 | 54.80% | 10.24% | 4.13% | 1.23% | 0.34% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 36 | Rinky Hijikata | 1493 | 45.20% | 7.35% | 2.64% | 0.69% | 0.17% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 37 | Tallon Griekspoor | 1538 | 58.81% | 21.40% | 5.06% | 1.57% | 0.46% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| 38 | Pavel Kotov | 1476 | 41.19% | 11.78% | 2.19% | 0.54% | 0.12% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 39 | Ilya Ivashka | 1640 | 51.40% | 34.66% | 11.70% | 5.07% | 2.12% | 0.56% | 0.09% |
| 40 | Botic van de Zandschulp | 1630 | 48.60% | 32.16% | 10.51% | 4.43% | 1.79% | 0.45% | 0.07% |
| 41 | Lorenzo Musetti | 1662 | 64.13% | 43.04% | 19.23% | 7.58% | 3.39% | 0.96% | 0.18% |
| 42 | Lloyd Harris | 1561 | 35.87% | 19.15% | 6.30% | 1.77% | 0.56% | 0.11% | 0.01% |
| 43 | Federico Coria | 1509 | 42.95% | 14.65% | 4.03% | 0.93% | 0.24% | 0.04% | 0.00% |
| 44 | Marton Fucsovics | 1559 | 57.05% | 23.16% | 7.56% | 2.10% | 0.66% | 0.13% | 0.01% |
| 45 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry | 1410 | 42.95% | 6.14% | 1.59% | 0.24% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 46 | Gregoire Barrere | 1459 | 57.05% | 10.22% | 3.23% | 0.61% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 47 | Kyle Edmund | 1567 | 21.91% | 14.82% | 6.79% | 1.94% | 0.63% | 0.12% | 0.02% |
| 48 | Jannik Sinner | 1787 | 78.09% | 68.82% | 51.25% | 28.29% | 17.40% | 7.49% | 2.23% |
| 49 | Cameron Norrie | 1752 | 81.65% | 65.12% | 42.71% | 25.82% | 12.74% | 4.93% | 1.30% |
| 50 | Luca Van Assche | 1493 | 18.35% | 8.65% | 2.73% | 0.76% | 0.15% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 51 | Thiago Monteiro | 1482 | 42.31% | 9.77% | 2.96% | 0.79% | 0.15% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 52 | Constant Lestienne | 1535 | 57.69% | 16.46% | 6.05% | 1.98% | 0.47% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| 53 | Christopher Eubanks | 1448 | 28.25% | 7.06% | 1.70% | 0.40% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 54 | Kwon Soon-Woo | 1610 | 71.75% | 31.82% | 13.44% | 5.64% | 1.78% | 0.41% | 0.06% |
| 55 | Jiri Lehecka | 1486 | 22.86% | 8.99% | 2.51% | 0.68% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 56 | Borna Coric | 1698 | 77.14% | 52.14% | 27.91% | 14.92% | 6.30% | 2.04% | 0.44% |
| 57 | Francisco Cerundolo | 1584 | 61.29% | 33.56% | 11.50% | 4.30% | 1.23% | 0.26% | 0.03% |
| 58 | Guido Pella | 1504 | 38.71% | 16.86% | 4.27% | 1.19% | 0.25% | 0.04% | 0.00% |
| 59 | Corentin Moutet | 1586 | 64.17% | 35.10% | 12.13% | 4.57% | 1.32% | 0.28% | 0.04% |
| 60 | Wu Yibing | 1485 | 35.83% | 14.49% | 3.39% | 0.88% | 0.17% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 61 | Alex Molcan | 1563 | 40.21% | 11.24% | 5.71% | 1.98% | 0.52% | 0.10% | 0.01% |
| 62 | Stan Wawrinka | 1632 | 59.79% | 21.52% | 12.99% | 5.66% | 1.92% | 0.49% | 0.08% |
| 63 | Vasek Pospisil | 1571 | 22.65% | 10.26% | 5.33% | 1.90% | 0.52% | 0.10% | 0.01% |
| 64 | Felix Auger-Aliassime | 1784 | 77.35% | 56.98% | 44.69% | 28.53% | 15.30% | 6.53% | 1.93% |
| 65 | Andrey Rublev | 1771 | 57.13% | 44.35% | 32.69% | 17.68% | 4.46% | 2.07% | 0.86% |
| 66 | Dominic Thiem | 1721 | 42.87% | 31.01% | 21.05% | 9.98% | 2.12% | 0.85% | 0.30% |
| 67 | Max Purcell | 1505 | 38.97% | 7.69% | 2.96% | 0.65% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 68 | Emil Ruusuvuori | 1583 | 61.03% | 16.95% | 8.34% | 2.51% | 0.31% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 69 | Daniel Elahi Galan | 1532 | 38.65% | 17.22% | 4.85% | 1.20% | 0.12% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 70 | Jeremy Chardy | 1613 | 61.35% | 34.02% | 12.84% | 4.31% | 0.61% | 0.17% | 0.04% |
| 71 | Facundo Bagnis | 1428 | 25.03% | 7.37% | 1.34% | 0.21% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 72 | Daniel Evans | 1619 | 74.97% | 41.40% | 15.94% | 5.46% | 0.79% | 0.22% | 0.05% |
| 73 | Nick Kyrgios | 1823 | 83.50% | 63.73% | 44.71% | 30.79% | 9.19% | 4.90% | 2.38% |
| 74 | Roman Safiullin | 1541 | 16.50% | 6.60% | 2.23% | 0.72% | 0.08% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 75 | Richard Gasquet | 1656 | 68.89% | 23.44% | 11.41% | 5.39% | 0.90% | 0.29% | 0.08% |
| 76 | Ugo Humbert | 1518 | 31.11% | 6.23% | 1.93% | 0.57% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 77 | Maxime Cressy | 1569 | 54.46% | 17.21% | 4.81% | 1.72% | 0.20% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 78 | Albert Ramos Vinolas | 1538 | 45.54% | 12.74% | 3.15% | 1.01% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 79 | Filip Krajinovic | 1620 | 32.35% | 19.16% | 6.44% | 2.72% | 0.40% | 0.11% | 0.03% |
| 80 | Holger Rune | 1748 | 67.65% | 50.89% | 25.33% | 15.07% | 3.51% | 1.52% | 0.59% |
| 81 | Pablo Carreno Busta | 1696 | 77.00% | 55.63% | 30.51% | 5.19% | 2.32% | 0.86% | 0.28% |
| 82 | Pedro Cachin | 1486 | 23.00% | 10.09% | 2.76% | 0.20% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 83 | Mattia Bellucci | 1500 | 42.70% | 13.13% | 3.79% | 0.30% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 84 | Benjamin Bonzi | 1551 | 57.30% | 21.15% | 7.42% | 0.72% | 0.19% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 85 | John Isner | 1680 | 66.01% | 35.41% | 20.60% | 3.31% | 1.41% | 0.49% | 0.15% |
| 86 | Adrian Mannarino | 1565 | 33.99% | 12.99% | 5.55% | 0.57% | 0.16% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 87 | Hsu Yu-Hsiou | 1500 | 24.05% | 7.48% | 2.57% | 0.20% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 88 | Alex De Minaur | 1700 | 75.95% | 44.13% | 26.79% | 4.62% | 2.08% | 0.78% | 0.26% |
| 89 | Grigor Dimitrov | 1670 | 70.22% | 47.87% | 6.35% | 3.27% | 1.35% | 0.45% | 0.13% |
| 90 | Aslan Karatsev | 1521 | 29.78% | 14.29% | 1.06% | 0.34% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 91 | Zizou Bergs | 1473 | 36.34% | 10.89% | 0.66% | 0.17% | 0.03% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 92 | Laslo Djere | 1571 | 63.66% | 26.95% | 2.43% | 0.93% | 0.27% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 93 | Enzo Couacuad | 1482 | 57.61% | 2.79% | 0.95% | 0.26% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 94 | Hugo Dellien | 1429 | 42.39% | 1.59% | 0.44% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 95 | Roberto Carballes Baena | 1512 | 3.80% | 2.19% | 0.83% | 0.25% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 96 | Novak Djokovic | 2073 | 96.20% | 93.44% | 87.27% | 79.57% | 68.89% | 56.19% | 43.99% |
| 97 | Taylor Fritz | 1769 | 81.98% | 69.93% | 51.92% | 23.32% | 13.27% | 3.61% | 1.50% |
| 98 | Nikoloz Basilashvili | 1506 | 18.02% | 10.10% | 4.07% | 0.77% | 0.18% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 99 | Tseng Chun-hsin | 1449 | 46.12% | 8.64% | 2.85% | 0.42% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 100 | Alexei Popyrin | 1476 | 53.88% | 11.32% | 4.11% | 0.68% | 0.14% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 101 | Ben Shelton | 1514 | 52.61% | 19.47% | 5.77% | 1.12% | 0.28% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 102 | Zhang Zhizhen | 1496 | 47.39% | 16.44% | 4.57% | 0.82% | 0.19% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 103 | Nicolas Jarry | 1508 | 30.21% | 15.20% | 4.40% | 0.83% | 0.20% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 104 | Miomir Kecmanovic | 1653 | 69.79% | 48.89% | 22.32% | 7.13% | 2.93% | 0.52% | 0.14% |
| 105 | Diego Schwartzman | 1622 | 66.82% | 41.09% | 10.35% | 4.46% | 1.65% | 0.26% | 0.06% |
| 106 | Oleksii Krutykh | 1500 | 33.18% | 14.74% | 2.32% | 0.67% | 0.15% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 107 | J. J. Wolf | 1569 | 60.73% | 29.30% | 6.08% | 2.22% | 0.68% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 108 | Jordan Thompson | 1493 | 39.27% | 14.87% | 2.28% | 0.64% | 0.14% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 109 | David Goffin | 1585 | 67.13% | 12.21% | 6.37% | 2.45% | 0.80% | 0.11% | 0.02% |
| 110 | Laurent Lokoli | 1461 | 32.87% | 3.49% | 1.23% | 0.30% | 0.06% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 111 | Juan Pablo Varillas | 1502 | 9.04% | 3.98% | 1.61% | 0.47% | 0.11% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 112 | Alexander Zverev | 1903 | 90.96% | 80.32% | 69.75% | 53.70% | 39.40% | 16.16% | 9.53% |
| 113 | Matteo Berrettini | 1791 | 67.37% | 53.15% | 38.41% | 23.91% | 11.56% | 3.38% | 1.50% |
| 114 | Andy Murray | 1665 | 32.63% | 21.04% | 11.97% | 5.43% | 1.80% | 0.33% | 0.10% |
| 115 | Thanasi Kokkinakis | 1580 | 56.10% | 15.60% | 7.12% | 2.45% | 0.60% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 116 | Fabio Fognini | 1537 | 43.90% | 10.21% | 4.09% | 1.20% | 0.25% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 117 | Aleksandar Vukic | 1511 | 52.34% | 17.15% | 4.45% | 1.17% | 0.22% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 118 | Brandon Holt | 1494 | 47.66% | 14.74% | 3.58% | 0.88% | 0.15% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 119 | Joao Sousa | 1419 | 17.46% | 6.66% | 1.17% | 0.21% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 120 | Roberto Bautista Agut | 1689 | 82.54% | 61.45% | 29.22% | 14.19% | 5.08% | 1.03% | 0.33% |
| 121 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 1595 | 46.53% | 20.12% | 7.05% | 2.60% | 0.67% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 122 | Alexander Bublik | 1619 | 53.47% | 24.88% | 9.45% | 3.78% | 1.07% | 0.17% | 0.04% |
| 123 | Jan-Lennard Struff | 1518 | 27.12% | 10.13% | 2.68% | 0.75% | 0.14% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 124 | Tommy Paul | 1690 | 72.88% | 44.86% | 21.10% | 10.41% | 3.74% | 0.77% | 0.24% |
| 125 | Christopher O'Connell | 1457 | 27.26% | 4.99% | 1.34% | 0.29% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 126 | Jenson Brooksby | 1627 | 72.74% | 25.66% | 12.51% | 5.13% | 1.49% | 0.24% | 0.06% |
| 127 | Tomas Machac | 1487 | 15.49% | 5.78% | 1.75% | 0.43% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 128 | Casper Ruud | 1782 | 84.51% | 63.57% | 44.14% | 27.15% | 12.82% | 3.64% | 1.57% |
