The 1st Grand Slam of the season is starting on Monday, and for the next 2 weeks, I will publish round-by-round updates. After the jump, you will find my pre-tournament predictions for the upcoming tournament.
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- Iga Swiatek is the most likely to win the tournament, with a 28.09% chance of winning the whole thing, with Ons Jabeur next at 7.23%. The 3rd most likely is Aryna Sabalenka with 5.86% and Belinda Bencic 4th with 5.56%
- Maria Sakkari has the easiest overall draw, as she is 0.85 percentage points more likely to win the tournament than expected. Jessica Pegula has the worst overall draw, as she is 0.77 percentage points less likely to win the tournament than expected.
- Jule Niemeier has the toughest 1st round match, as she's 42.94 percentage points less likely to win than a player of her rank is expected to win. Katie Volynets got the easiest 1st round draw, as she's 37.95 percentage points more likely to make it to round 2 than her ranking would expect.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # | Name | ELO | R1 % | R2 % | R3 % | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iga Swiatek | 1945 | 90.29% | 83.44% | 69.47% | 57.30% | 47.52% | 37.02% | 28.09% |
| 2 | Jule Niemeier | 1558 | 9.71% | 5.58% | 2.10% | 0.74% | 0.28% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 3 | Panna Udvardy | 1427 | 33.83% | 2.52% | 0.58% | 0.12% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 4 | Camila Osorio | 1543 | 66.17% | 8.46% | 3.02% | 1.01% | 0.36% | 0.10% | 0.03% |
| 5 | Cristina Bucsa | 1454 | 43.48% | 8.66% | 0.97% | 0.23% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 6 | Eva Lys | 1500 | 56.52% | 13.78% | 1.86% | 0.53% | 0.16% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 7 | Bianca Andreescu | 1724 | 59.16% | 47.46% | 14.56% | 8.41% | 5.00% | 2.53% | 1.21% |
| 8 | Marie Bouzkova | 1660 | 40.84% | 30.10% | 7.44% | 3.64% | 1.86% | 0.77% | 0.30% |
| 9 | Elena Rybakina | 1710 | 75.10% | 56.83% | 31.69% | 10.09% | 5.82% | 2.82% | 1.29% |
| 10 | Elisabetta Cocciaretto | 1518 | 24.90% | 12.66% | 3.81% | 0.59% | 0.19% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 11 | Kaja Juvan | 1529 | 55.55% | 18.05% | 5.68% | 0.92% | 0.31% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 12 | Selena Janicijevic | 1491 | 44.45% | 12.46% | 3.36% | 0.46% | 0.14% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 13 | Lesia Tsurenko | 1575 | 37.61% | 13.31% | 5.74% | 1.12% | 0.44% | 0.14% | 0.04% |
| 14 | Karolina Muchova | 1663 | 62.39% | 29.42% | 16.12% | 4.36% | 2.24% | 0.94% | 0.37% |
| 15 | Anna Kalinskaya | 1584 | 30.67% | 13.37% | 5.93% | 1.20% | 0.49% | 0.16% | 0.05% |
| 16 | Danielle Collins | 1726 | 69.33% | 43.90% | 27.65% | 9.28% | 5.54% | 2.81% | 1.35% |
| 17 | Laura Pigossi | 1503 | 47.01% | 25.02% | 9.09% | 2.68% | 0.42% | 0.10% | 0.02% |
| 18 | Caty McNally | 1523 | 52.99% | 29.77% | 11.62% | 3.70% | 0.64% | 0.16% | 0.04% |
| 19 | Kamilla Rakhimova | 1469 | 47.00% | 20.51% | 6.60% | 1.71% | 0.23% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 20 | Kateryna Baindl | 1490 | 53.00% | 24.70% | 8.58% | 2.41% | 0.36% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 21 | Anna Bondar | 1509 | 43.97% | 14.64% | 7.53% | 2.28% | 0.37% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 22 | Ana Bogdan | 1551 | 56.03% | 21.65% | 12.44% | 4.37% | 0.85% | 0.24% | 0.06% |
| 23 | Dayana Yastremska | 1524 | 29.02% | 14.13% | 7.57% | 2.41% | 0.42% | 0.10% | 0.02% |
| 24 | Jelena Ostapenko | 1679 | 70.98% | 49.57% | 36.57% | 18.91% | 5.94% | 2.63% | 1.09% |
| 25 | Zheng Qinwen | 1635 | 71.35% | 45.20% | 19.41% | 11.31% | 3.04% | 1.17% | 0.42% |
| 26 | Dalma Galfi | 1477 | 28.65% | 11.78% | 2.89% | 1.07% | 0.15% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 27 | Bernada Pera | 1565 | 58.86% | 27.35% | 9.35% | 4.56% | 0.93% | 0.28% | 0.08% |
| 28 | Moyuka Uchijima | 1503 | 41.14% | 15.67% | 4.26% | 1.72% | 0.27% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 29 | Emma Raducanu | 1578 | 69.06% | 21.06% | 10.58% | 5.35% | 1.16% | 0.36% | 0.10% |
| 30 | Tamara Korpatsch | 1439 | 30.94% | 5.21% | 1.65% | 0.53% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 31 | Katerina Siniakova | 1607 | 27.76% | 16.59% | 8.99% | 4.90% | 1.18% | 0.41% | 0.13% |
| 32 | Coco Gauff | 1773 | 72.24% | 57.13% | 42.87% | 32.07% | 13.53% | 7.75% | 4.23% |
| 33 | Jessica Pegula | 1790 | 81.29% | 62.17% | 43.16% | 27.52% | 17.82% | 8.41% | 4.79% |
| 34 | Jaqueline Cristian | 1535 | 18.71% | 8.20% | 3.02% | 0.93% | 0.29% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 35 | Brenda Fruhvirtova | 1487 | 31.45% | 6.32% | 1.96% | 0.50% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 36 | Aliaksandra Sasnovich | 1622 | 68.55% | 23.31% | 11.19% | 4.64% | 1.97% | 0.55% | 0.19% |
| 37 | Polina Kudermetova | 1500 | 52.65% | 14.15% | 3.47% | 0.93% | 0.26% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 38 | Olivia Gadecki | 1482 | 47.35% | 11.79% | 2.68% | 0.67% | 0.17% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 39 | Marta Kostyuk | 1579 | 30.36% | 18.94% | 6.25% | 2.25% | 0.83% | 0.20% | 0.06% |
| 40 | Amanda Anisimova | 1723 | 69.64% | 55.13% | 28.26% | 15.54% | 8.70% | 3.40% | 1.62% |
| 41 | Barbora Krejcikova | 1739 | 80.33% | 64.47% | 39.00% | 21.01% | 12.20% | 4.98% | 2.48% |
| 42 | Sara Bejlek | 1494 | 19.67% | 9.81% | 2.86% | 0.69% | 0.19% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 43 | Talia Gibson | 1491 | 49.00% | 12.43% | 3.58% | 0.85% | 0.23% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 44 | Clara Burel | 1498 | 51.00% | 13.29% | 3.94% | 0.96% | 0.26% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 45 | Coco Vandeweghe | 1503 | 37.88% | 9.95% | 3.12% | 0.78% | 0.22% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 46 | Anhelina Kalinina | 1589 | 62.12% | 22.52% | 9.36% | 3.22% | 1.23% | 0.30% | 0.09% |
| 47 | Alison Van Uytvanck | 1542 | 24.35% | 11.68% | 4.19% | 1.21% | 0.39% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 48 | Petra Kvitova | 1739 | 75.65% | 55.85% | 33.94% | 18.29% | 10.62% | 4.34% | 2.16% |
| 49 | Madison Keys | 1695 | 74.83% | 60.80% | 33.49% | 19.26% | 8.93% | 3.19% | 1.39% |
| 50 | Anna Blinkova | 1505 | 25.17% | 14.95% | 4.60% | 1.54% | 0.36% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 51 | Wang Xinyu | 1457 | 55.66% | 14.47% | 3.69% | 1.03% | 0.20% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 52 | Storm Hunter | 1417 | 44.34% | 9.78% | 2.11% | 0.51% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 53 | Leolia Jeanjean | 1511 | 45.63% | 11.92% | 4.51% | 1.55% | 0.37% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 54 | Nadia Podoroska | 1542 | 54.37% | 16.06% | 6.69% | 2.53% | 0.69% | 0.14% | 0.04% |
| 55 | Sofia Kenin | 1599 | 30.63% | 18.40% | 9.01% | 4.07% | 1.38% | 0.35% | 0.11% |
| 56 | Victoria Azarenka | 1741 | 69.37% | 53.62% | 35.89% | 22.73% | 11.99% | 4.94% | 2.48% |
| 57 | Jil Teichmann | 1591 | 62.32% | 39.18% | 16.24% | 6.57% | 2.16% | 0.54% | 0.16% |
| 58 | Harriet Dart | 1504 | 37.68% | 19.09% | 5.96% | 1.78% | 0.41% | 0.07% | 0.02% |
| 59 | Zhu Lin | 1466 | 41.78% | 15.52% | 4.21% | 1.08% | 0.21% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 60 | Rebecca Marino | 1523 | 58.22% | 26.22% | 8.75% | 2.81% | 0.71% | 0.13% | 0.03% |
| 61 | Kristina Kucova | 1461 | 44.45% | 9.89% | 3.90% | 0.99% | 0.19% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 62 | Diana Shnaider | 1500 | 55.55% | 14.43% | 6.46% | 1.90% | 0.44% | 0.07% | 0.02% |
| 63 | Yuan Yue | 1477 | 17.98% | 8.85% | 3.68% | 0.99% | 0.21% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 64 | Maria Sakkari | 1741 | 82.02% | 66.83% | 50.80% | 30.66% | 16.15% | 6.64% | 3.33% |
| 65 | Daria Kasatkina | 1741 | 83.64% | 65.23% | 43.18% | 25.05% | 14.41% | 7.25% | 3.03% |
| 66 | Varvara Gracheva | 1458 | 16.36% | 6.76% | 1.91% | 0.45% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 67 | Lucrezia Stefanini | 1470 | 38.70% | 8.90% | 2.63% | 0.65% | 0.15% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 68 | Tatjana Maria | 1550 | 61.30% | 19.11% | 7.61% | 2.54% | 0.82% | 0.22% | 0.04% |
| 69 | Sorana Cirstea | 1589 | 45.36% | 20.21% | 8.14% | 3.10% | 1.14% | 0.35% | 0.09% |
| 70 | Yulia Putintseva | 1621 | 54.64% | 26.80% | 11.89% | 5.02% | 2.06% | 0.71% | 0.20% |
| 71 | Wang Xiyu | 1543 | 32.68% | 13.39% | 4.64% | 1.51% | 0.47% | 0.12% | 0.02% |
| 72 | Karolina Pliskova | 1669 | 67.32% | 39.60% | 20.00% | 9.68% | 4.60% | 1.86% | 0.61% |
| 73 | Zhang Shuai | 1621 | 66.15% | 34.31% | 14.33% | 6.30% | 2.59% | 0.89% | 0.25% |
| 74 | Patricia Maria Tig | 1504 | 33.85% | 12.12% | 3.50% | 1.03% | 0.28% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 75 | Petra Martic | 1642 | 63.13% | 36.85% | 16.32% | 7.65% | 3.36% | 1.24% | 0.37% |
| 76 | Viktorija Golubic | 1548 | 36.87% | 16.72% | 5.60% | 1.94% | 0.62% | 0.16% | 0.03% |
| 77 | Katie Volynets | 1416 | 47.66% | 7.80% | 2.02% | 0.41% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 78 | Evgeniya Rodina | 1433 | 52.34% | 9.20% | 2.55% | 0.56% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 79 | Maryna Zanevska | 1504 | 17.98% | 11.00% | 4.00% | 1.17% | 0.31% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 80 | Veronika Kudermetova | 1767 | 82.02% | 72.00% | 51.69% | 32.93% | 20.08% | 10.81% | 4.88% |
| 81 | Anett Kontaveit | 1720 | 79.97% | 59.02% | 36.99% | 20.79% | 11.08% | 5.24% | 2.05% |
| 82 | Julia Grabher | 1479 | 20.03% | 8.41% | 2.67% | 0.69% | 0.16% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 83 | Mayar Sherif | 1473 | 36.06% | 9.15% | 2.84% | 0.71% | 0.16% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 84 | Magda Linette | 1572 | 63.94% | 23.42% | 10.15% | 3.71% | 1.26% | 0.36% | 0.08% |
| 85 | Diane Parry | 1528 | 55.70% | 18.32% | 6.41% | 2.00% | 0.57% | 0.14% | 0.03% |
| 86 | Taylor Townsend | 1488 | 44.30% | 12.55% | 3.80% | 1.02% | 0.25% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 87 | Ysaline Bonaventure | 1503 | 23.80% | 11.67% | 3.74% | 1.06% | 0.28% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 88 | Ekaterina Alexandrova | 1705 | 76.20% | 57.46% | 33.41% | 18.14% | 9.31% | 4.22% | 1.58% |
| 89 | Irina-Camelia Begu | 1667 | 71.69% | 49.95% | 23.05% | 11.79% | 5.44% | 2.20% | 0.72% |
| 90 | Elizabeth Mandlik | 1506 | 28.31% | 13.48% | 3.53% | 1.07% | 0.28% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 91 | Lucia Bronzetti | 1508 | 46.11% | 16.00% | 4.22% | 1.30% | 0.34% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| 92 | Laura Siegemund | 1535 | 53.89% | 20.57% | 6.04% | 2.05% | 0.60% | 0.15% | 0.03% |
| 93 | Leylah Fernandez | 1636 | 53.53% | 21.05% | 11.77% | 5.52% | 2.32% | 0.84% | 0.25% |
| 94 | Alize Cornet | 1612 | 46.47% | 16.85% | 8.86% | 3.87% | 1.50% | 0.50% | 0.13% |
| 95 | Katherine Sebov | 1487 | 17.21% | 5.37% | 1.93% | 0.55% | 0.13% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 96 | Caroline Garcia | 1760 | 82.79% | 56.73% | 40.59% | 25.75% | 15.14% | 8.00% | 3.54% |
| 97 | Aryna Sabalenka | 1801 | 82.80% | 63.66% | 47.33% | 30.33% | 18.91% | 11.85% | 5.86% |
| 98 | Tereza Martincova | 1528 | 17.20% | 7.26% | 2.77% | 0.83% | 0.23% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 99 | Arianne Hartono | 1469 | 28.48% | 5.09% | 1.56% | 0.37% | 0.08% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 100 | Shelby Rogers | 1629 | 71.52% | 23.99% | 12.55% | 5.27% | 2.09% | 0.82% | 0.23% |
| 101 | Lauren Davis | 1572 | 56.57% | 22.29% | 6.88% | 2.41% | 0.78% | 0.25% | 0.06% |
| 102 | Danka Kovinic | 1526 | 43.43% | 14.46% | 3.76% | 1.12% | 0.31% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 103 | Garbine Muguruza | 1650 | 50.88% | 32.38% | 13.00% | 5.80% | 2.46% | 1.03% | 0.32% |
| 104 | Elise Mertens | 1644 | 49.12% | 30.87% | 12.15% | 5.33% | 2.21% | 0.91% | 0.28% |
| 105 | Martina Trevisan | 1514 | 58.55% | 19.99% | 5.43% | 1.46% | 0.38% | 0.10% | 0.02% |
| 106 | Anna Karolina Schmiedlova | 1454 | 41.45% | 11.13% | 2.40% | 0.50% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 107 | Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova | 1635 | 52.05% | 36.28% | 14.74% | 6.07% | 2.45% | 0.98% | 0.29% |
| 108 | Camila Giorgi | 1621 | 47.95% | 32.59% | 12.69% | 4.99% | 1.93% | 0.74% | 0.20% |
| 109 | Claire Liu | 1526 | 57.39% | 13.78% | 5.74% | 1.61% | 0.44% | 0.12% | 0.02% |
| 110 | Madison Brengle | 1474 | 42.61% | 8.32% | 2.90% | 0.66% | 0.15% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 111 | Viktoriya Tomova | 1434 | 11.95% | 4.79% | 1.44% | 0.28% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 112 | Belinda Bencic | 1781 | 88.05% | 73.10% | 54.66% | 32.97% | 19.72% | 11.85% | 5.56% |
| 113 | Beatriz Haddad Maia | 1673 | 76.20% | 46.81% | 25.73% | 11.20% | 4.81% | 2.18% | 0.73% |
| 114 | Nuria Parrizas Diaz | 1471 | 23.80% | 7.90% | 2.24% | 0.47% | 0.09% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 115 | Sloane Stephens | 1594 | 50.64% | 23.09% | 10.17% | 3.43% | 1.14% | 0.40% | 0.10% |
| 116 | Anastasia Potapova | 1590 | 49.36% | 22.20% | 9.64% | 3.21% | 1.04% | 0.36% | 0.09% |
| 117 | Donna Vekic | 1623 | 68.07% | 30.59% | 15.39% | 5.73% | 2.10% | 0.81% | 0.22% |
| 118 | Oksana Selekhmeteva | 1491 | 31.93% | 8.94% | 2.92% | 0.67% | 0.15% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 119 | Jasmine Paolini | 1588 | 34.85% | 17.75% | 8.06% | 2.66% | 0.86% | 0.29% | 0.07% |
| 120 | Liudmila Samsonova | 1697 | 65.15% | 42.73% | 25.85% | 12.06% | 5.56% | 2.70% | 0.98% |
| 121 | Kaia Kanepi | 1641 | 67.50% | 45.89% | 15.87% | 7.98% | 3.10% | 1.27% | 0.38% |
| 122 | Kimberly Birrell | 1514 | 32.50% | 16.58% | 3.48% | 1.15% | 0.28% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 123 | Linda Fruhvirtova | 1547 | 67.25% | 28.70% | 6.93% | 2.59% | 0.72% | 0.21% | 0.04% |
| 124 | Jaimee Fourlis | 1422 | 32.75% | 8.84% | 1.22% | 0.28% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 125 | Alison Riske-Amritraj | 1605 | 35.11% | 10.00% | 5.42% | 2.45% | 0.84% | 0.30% | 0.08% |
| 126 | Marketa Vondrousova | 1711 | 64.89% | 26.58% | 18.12% | 10.88% | 5.24% | 2.65% | 1.01% |
| 127 | Tamara Zidansek | 1492 | 13.32% | 3.50% | 1.36% | 0.41% | 0.09% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 128 | Ons Jabeur | 1817 | 86.68% | 59.91% | 47.60% | 34.83% | 21.64% | 14.02% | 7.23% |
