The 2nd round of the Australian Open has finished, so let's take a look at how those results impacted my ratings of the players still in, and also how well I expect them to do for the rest of the tournament.
 |
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View my pre-tournament predictions for the
Men and the
Women here. Who's doing better so far, the top players, or the lower ranked players? Some stats I calculated for the top 150 players:
| Rank | ± Men | ± Wmn |
|---|
| 1-10 | -16 | 25 |
| 11-20 | 40 | -16 |
| 21-50 | -39 | 45 |
| 51-100 | 70 | -15 |
| 101-150 | -5 | 11 |
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Now, my latest Men's ratings and predictions:
| # |
Name |
ELO |
R3 % |
R4 % |
R5 % |
R6 % |
R7 % |
| 1 |
Mackenzie McDonald |
1609 |
45.51% |
15.76% |
4.11% |
1.09% |
0.18% |
| 2 |
Yoshihito Nishioka |
1640 |
54.49% |
21.14% |
6.26% |
1.88% |
0.36% |
| 3 |
Karen Khachanov |
1724 |
51.48% |
32.82% |
13.19% |
5.38% |
1.39% |
| 4 |
Frances Tiafoe |
1714 |
48.52% |
30.27% |
11.75% |
4.63% |
1.16% |
| 5 |
Hubert Hurkacz |
1751 |
56.30% |
22.31% |
13.19% |
5.85% |
1.65% |
| 6 |
Denis Shapovalov |
1707 |
43.70% |
14.82% |
7.85% |
3.02% |
0.73% |
| 7 |
Sebastian Korda |
1742 |
32.80% |
16.89% |
9.78% |
4.22% |
1.16% |
| 8 |
Daniil Medvedev |
1866 |
67.20% |
45.99% |
33.86% |
20.47% |
8.14% |
| 9 |
Stefanos Tsitsipas |
1839 |
83.33% |
51.73% |
31.92% |
19.14% |
7.05% |
| 10 |
Tallon Griekspoor |
1559 |
16.67% |
4.42% |
1.13% |
0.28% |
0.04% |
| 11 |
Marton Fucsovics |
1577 |
22.35% |
5.35% |
1.47% |
0.39% |
0.06% |
| 12 |
Jannik Sinner |
1794 |
77.65% |
38.49% |
21.42% |
11.56% |
3.74% |
| 13 |
Cameron Norrie |
1760 |
80.79% |
41.81% |
18.75% |
9.26% |
2.70% |
| 14 |
Jiri Lehecka |
1511 |
19.21% |
4.15% |
0.71% |
0.14% |
0.02% |
| 15 |
Francisco Cerundolo |
1602 |
24.94% |
8.79% |
2.24% |
0.65% |
0.11% |
| 16 |
Felix Auger-Aliassime |
1793 |
75.06% |
45.25% |
22.35% |
12.05% |
3.89% |
| 17 |
Andrey Rublev |
1785 |
70.47% |
41.93% |
10.24% |
7.00% |
3.43% |
| 18 |
Daniel Evans |
1634 |
29.53% |
11.62% |
1.59% |
0.77% |
0.22% |
| 19 |
Ugo Humbert |
1540 |
22.01% |
5.44% |
0.49% |
0.18% |
0.03% |
| 20 |
Holger Rune |
1760 |
77.99% |
41.01% |
9.15% |
5.97% |
2.72% |
| 21 |
Benjamin Bonzi |
1573 |
31.17% |
2.52% |
0.70% |
0.28% |
0.06% |
| 22 |
Alex De Minaur |
1711 |
68.83% |
10.38% |
4.70% |
2.77% |
1.08% |
| 23 |
Grigor Dimitrov |
1683 |
9.51% |
4.95% |
2.05% |
1.13% |
0.40% |
| 24 |
Novak Djokovic |
2075 |
90.49% |
82.15% |
71.07% |
65.21% |
54.15% |
| 25 |
Alexei Popyrin |
1502 |
45.51% |
19.84% |
5.10% |
0.44% |
0.07% |
| 26 |
Ben Shelton |
1533 |
54.49% |
26.13% |
7.65% |
0.76% |
0.14% |
| 27 |
J. J. Wolf |
1588 |
67.13% |
40.16% |
14.55% |
1.85% |
0.45% |
| 28 |
Michael Mmoh |
1464 |
32.87% |
13.87% |
3.02% |
0.22% |
0.03% |
| 29 |
Andy Murray |
1686 |
48.40% |
24.67% |
17.18% |
3.29% |
1.17% |
| 30 |
Roberto Bautista Agut |
1697 |
51.60% |
27.11% |
19.23% |
3.84% |
1.43% |
| 31 |
Tommy Paul |
1703 |
57.99% |
29.92% |
21.42% |
4.37% |
1.66% |
| 32 |
Jenson Brooksby |
1647 |
42.01% |
18.30% |
11.84% |
1.93% |
0.60% |
And my latest Women's ratings and predictions:
| # |
Name |
ELO |
R3 % |
R4 % |
R5 % |
R6 % |
R7 % |
| 1 |
Iga Swiatek |
1949 |
93.63% |
72.86% |
56.93% |
43.05% |
32.99% |
| 2 |
Cristina Bucsa |
1482 |
6.37% |
1.23% |
0.27% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 3 |
Elena Rybakina |
1720 |
47.12% |
11.72% |
5.88% |
2.70% |
1.29% |
| 4 |
Danielle Collins |
1740 |
52.88% |
14.19% |
7.51% |
3.66% |
1.85% |
| 5 |
Kateryna Baindl |
1510 |
26.19% |
5.91% |
0.69% |
0.14% |
0.03% |
| 6 |
Jelena Ostapenko |
1690 |
73.81% |
32.22% |
8.31% |
3.47% |
1.51% |
| 7 |
Bernada Pera |
1585 |
24.21% |
10.15% |
1.68% |
0.48% |
0.14% |
| 8 |
Coco Gauff |
1783 |
75.79% |
51.72% |
18.72% |
10.26% |
5.79% |
| 9 |
Jessica Pegula |
1800 |
75.92% |
47.82% |
28.45% |
12.02% |
7.06% |
| 10 |
Marta Kostyuk |
1600 |
24.08% |
8.64% |
2.78% |
0.57% |
0.18% |
| 11 |
Barbora Krejcikova |
1747 |
68.67% |
33.68% |
17.55% |
6.27% |
3.22% |
| 12 |
Anhelina Kalinina |
1610 |
31.33% |
9.87% |
3.31% |
0.71% |
0.23% |
| 13 |
Madison Keys |
1704 |
43.07% |
21.46% |
9.45% |
2.90% |
1.32% |
| 14 |
Victoria Azarenka |
1752 |
56.93% |
32.06% |
16.26% |
5.91% |
3.08% |
| 15 |
Zhu Lin |
1491 |
18.47% |
3.71% |
0.72% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| 16 |
Maria Sakkari |
1749 |
81.53% |
42.77% |
21.48% |
7.72% |
3.99% |
| 17 |
Varvara Gracheva |
1485 |
24.14% |
8.65% |
1.87% |
0.36% |
0.05% |
| 18 |
Karolina Pliskova |
1684 |
75.86% |
47.26% |
21.43% |
8.99% |
2.76% |
| 19 |
Zhang Shuai |
1638 |
75.31% |
37.68% |
14.77% |
5.31% |
1.37% |
| 20 |
Katie Volynets |
1444 |
24.69% |
6.40% |
1.16% |
0.19% |
0.02% |
| 21 |
Magda Linette |
1593 |
33.23% |
10.97% |
4.85% |
1.48% |
0.32% |
| 22 |
Ekaterina Alexandrova |
1715 |
66.77% |
32.48% |
19.74% |
9.10% |
3.12% |
| 23 |
Laura Siegemund |
1558 |
22.74% |
7.78% |
3.07% |
0.81% |
0.15% |
| 24 |
Caroline Garcia |
1770 |
77.26% |
48.77% |
33.12% |
17.82% |
7.35% |
| 25 |
Aryna Sabalenka |
1809 |
70.06% |
41.38% |
28.52% |
18.54% |
8.59% |
| 26 |
Elise Mertens |
1662 |
29.94% |
11.64% |
5.76% |
2.59% |
0.73% |
| 27 |
Camila Giorgi |
1637 |
29.61% |
9.72% |
4.48% |
1.86% |
0.48% |
| 28 |
Belinda Bencic |
1787 |
70.39% |
37.26% |
24.68% |
15.33% |
6.66% |
| 29 |
Nuria Parrizas Diaz |
1499 |
30.58% |
8.05% |
1.46% |
0.37% |
0.05% |
| 30 |
Donna Vekic |
1641 |
69.42% |
30.46% |
10.06% |
4.25% |
1.11% |
| 31 |
Linda Fruhvirtova |
1563 |
27.53% |
12.42% |
3.00% |
0.97% |
0.18% |
| 32 |
Marketa Vondrousova |
1731 |
72.47% |
49.08% |
22.03% |
12.03% |
4.37% |
