The 4th round of the Australian Open has finished, so let's take a look at how those results impacted my ratings of the players still in, and also how well I expect them to do for the rest of the tournament.
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View my pre-tournament predictions for the Men and the Women here. Who's doing better so far, the top players, or the lower ranked players? Some stats I calculated for the top 150 players:
| Rank | ± Men | ± Wmn |
|---|---|---|
| 1-10 | -28 | 20 |
| 11-20 | 62 | -33 |
| 21-50 | -51 | 64 |
| 51-100 | 33 | -1 |
| 101-150 | 18 | 7 |
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Now, my latest Men's ratings and predictions:
| # | Name | ELO | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karen Khachanov | 1741 | 46.58% | 18.98% | 4.11% |
| 2 | Sebastian Korda | 1765 | 53.42% | 23.40% | 5.54% |
| 3 | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 1851 | 85.43% | 54.28% | 17.28% |
| 4 | Jiri Lehecka | 1543 | 14.57% | 3.34% | 0.31% |
| 5 | Andrey Rublev | 1800 | 16.72% | 11.12% | 5.54% |
| 6 | Novak Djokovic | 2079 | 83.28% | 75.38% | 62.31% |
| 7 | Ben Shelton | 1554 | 27.64% | 1.97% | 0.40% |
| 8 | Tommy Paul | 1721 | 72.36% | 11.53% | 4.50% |
And my latest Women's ratings and predictions:
| # | Name | ELO | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Elena Rybakina | 1746 | 55.48% | 24.12% | 11.97% |
| 2 | Jelena Ostapenko | 1708 | 44.52% | 17.01% | 7.56% |
| 3 | Jessica Pegula | 1813 | 56.93% | 35.17% | 20.62% |
| 4 | Victoria Azarenka | 1765 | 43.07% | 23.70% | 12.35% |
| 5 | Karolina Pliskova | 1697 | 60.78% | 23.63% | 9.48% |
| 6 | Magda Linette | 1621 | 39.22% | 11.58% | 3.51% |
| 7 | Aryna Sabalenka | 1825 | 72.60% | 51.55% | 29.93% |
| 8 | Donna Vekic | 1656 | 27.40% | 13.23% | 4.57% |
