The 3rd round of the Australian Open has finished, so let's take a look at how those results impacted my ratings of the players still in, and also how well I expect them to do for the rest of the tournament.
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View my pre-tournament predictions for the Men and the Women here. Who's doing better so far, the top players, or the lower ranked players? Some stats I calculated for the top 150 players:
| Rank | ± Men | ± Wmn |
|---|---|---|
| 1-10 | -16 | 52 |
| 11-20 | 55 | -28 |
| 21-50 | -42 | 30 |
| 51-100 | 45 | -7 |
| 101-150 | 2 | 11 |
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Now, my latest Men's ratings and predictions:
| # | Name | ELO | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yoshihito Nishioka | 1649 | 38.04% | 13.29% | 3.86% | 0.69% |
| 2 | Karen Khachanov | 1734 | 61.96% | 28.90% | 11.49% | 2.81% |
| 3 | Hubert Hurkacz | 1759 | 50.60% | 29.40% | 12.71% | 3.40% |
| 4 | Sebastian Korda | 1755 | 49.40% | 28.42% | 12.12% | 3.20% |
| 5 | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 1842 | 56.24% | 34.53% | 22.31% | 7.77% |
| 6 | Jannik Sinner | 1798 | 43.76% | 24.36% | 14.31% | 4.35% |
| 7 | Jiri Lehecka | 1527 | 17.33% | 2.68% | 0.62% | 0.07% |
| 8 | Felix Auger-Aliassime | 1798 | 82.67% | 38.43% | 22.58% | 6.87% |
| 9 | Andrey Rublev | 1791 | 53.82% | 11.38% | 7.57% | 3.86% |
| 10 | Holger Rune | 1764 | 46.18% | 8.76% | 5.53% | 2.61% |
| 11 | Alex De Minaur | 1717 | 11.23% | 4.64% | 2.64% | 1.08% |
| 12 | Novak Djokovic | 2076 | 88.77% | 75.22% | 68.40% | 57.51% |
| 13 | Ben Shelton | 1542 | 42.50% | 11.77% | 1.02% | 0.21% |
| 14 | J. J. Wolf | 1595 | 57.50% | 19.63% | 2.19% | 0.56% |
| 15 | Roberto Bautista Agut | 1707 | 49.37% | 33.73% | 6.16% | 2.43% |
| 16 | Tommy Paul | 1711 | 50.63% | 34.86% | 6.49% | 2.59% |
And my latest Women's ratings and predictions:
| # | Name | ELO | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iga Swiatek | 1950 | 77.97% | 58.69% | 43.35% | 32.49% |
| 2 | Elena Rybakina | 1731 | 22.03% | 10.29% | 4.61% | 2.16% |
| 3 | Jelena Ostapenko | 1696 | 36.98% | 9.07% | 3.63% | 1.52% |
| 4 | Coco Gauff | 1788 | 63.02% | 21.95% | 11.62% | 6.36% |
| 5 | Jessica Pegula | 1804 | 57.37% | 35.34% | 14.61% | 8.33% |
| 6 | Barbora Krejcikova | 1753 | 42.63% | 23.37% | 8.15% | 4.07% |
| 7 | Victoria Azarenka | 1761 | 81.18% | 38.07% | 13.64% | 6.96% |
| 8 | Zhu Lin | 1507 | 18.82% | 3.22% | 0.40% | 0.08% |
| 9 | Karolina Pliskova | 1689 | 56.53% | 25.07% | 10.12% | 3.02% |
| 10 | Zhang Shuai | 1643 | 43.47% | 16.65% | 5.75% | 1.43% |
| 11 | Magda Linette | 1607 | 27.52% | 11.34% | 3.42% | 0.73% |
| 12 | Caroline Garcia | 1775 | 72.48% | 46.94% | 24.41% | 9.87% |
| 13 | Aryna Sabalenka | 1815 | 53.21% | 40.10% | 25.65% | 11.74% |
| 14 | Belinda Bencic | 1793 | 46.79% | 34.12% | 20.83% | 8.92% |
| 15 | Donna Vekic | 1648 | 59.91% | 17.25% | 7.08% | 1.80% |
| 16 | Linda Fruhvirtova | 1578 | 40.09% | 8.54% | 2.74% | 0.52% |
