The 1st round of the Australian Open has mostly finished, so let's take a look at how those results impacted my ratings of the players still in (The numbers assume that the higher ranked player will win for the remaining matches) , and also how well I expect them to do for the rest of the tournament.
 |
| Australian Open logo, © Australian Open |
View my pre-tournament predictions for the
Men and the
Women here. Who's doing better so far, the top players, or the lower ranked players? Some stats I calculated for the top 150 players:
| Rank | ± Men | ± Wmn |
|---|
| 1-10 | 8 | 27 |
| 11-20 | 38 | 22 |
| 21-50 | -40 | 48 |
| 51-100 | 27 | -26 |
| 101-150 | -4 | -25 |
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Now, my latest Men's ratings and predictions:
| # |
Name |
ELO |
R2 % |
R3 % |
R4 % |
R5 % |
R6 % |
R7 % |
| 1 |
Rafael Nadal |
1959 |
89.25% |
79.21% |
64.97% |
47.08% |
34.67% |
17.00% |
| 2 |
Mackenzie McDonald |
1591 |
10.75% |
5.34% |
1.97% |
0.51% |
0.14% |
0.02% |
| 3 |
Dalibor Svcrina |
1510 |
32.89% |
3.42% |
0.93% |
0.17% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 4 |
Yoshihito Nishioka |
1633 |
67.11% |
12.03% |
5.11% |
1.57% |
0.50% |
0.08% |
| 5 |
Karen Khachanov |
1719 |
75.29% |
43.21% |
12.82% |
5.32% |
2.26% |
0.52% |
| 6 |
Jason Kubler |
1526 |
24.71% |
7.97% |
1.13% |
0.22% |
0.05% |
0.00% |
| 7 |
Shang Juncheng |
1482 |
21.28% |
5.57% |
0.66% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 8 |
Frances Tiafoe |
1710 |
78.72% |
43.26% |
12.42% |
5.00% |
2.06% |
0.46% |
| 9 |
Hubert Hurkacz |
1746 |
76.06% |
47.06% |
19.85% |
7.03% |
3.24% |
0.82% |
| 10 |
Lorenzo Sonego |
1545 |
23.94% |
8.48% |
1.69% |
0.28% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 11 |
Taro Daniel |
1478 |
21.53% |
4.97% |
0.74% |
0.09% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 12 |
Denis Shapovalov |
1702 |
78.47% |
39.50% |
14.47% |
4.43% |
1.78% |
0.38% |
| 13 |
Sebastian Korda |
1738 |
79.19% |
30.33% |
16.73% |
5.77% |
2.60% |
0.64% |
| 14 |
Yosuke Watanuki |
1505 |
20.81% |
3.28% |
0.84% |
0.12% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 15 |
John Millman |
1534 |
13.02% |
3.90% |
1.11% |
0.18% |
0.04% |
0.00% |
| 16 |
Daniil Medvedev |
1864 |
86.98% |
62.48% |
44.57% |
22.11% |
13.75% |
5.17% |
| 17 |
Stefanos Tsitsipas |
1836 |
87.12% |
68.54% |
44.15% |
28.76% |
13.34% |
4.61% |
| 18 |
Rinky Hijikata |
1504 |
12.88% |
4.63% |
1.11% |
0.27% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 19 |
Tallon Griekspoor |
1546 |
36.78% |
7.74% |
2.20% |
0.62% |
0.10% |
0.01% |
| 20 |
Botic van de Zandschulp |
1640 |
63.22% |
19.09% |
7.49% |
2.95% |
0.70% |
0.12% |
| 21 |
Lloyd Harris |
1574 |
50.96% |
13.93% |
3.78% |
1.18% |
0.21% |
0.03% |
| 22 |
Marton Fucsovics |
1567 |
49.04% |
13.08% |
3.46% |
1.06% |
0.18% |
0.02% |
| 23 |
Tomas Martin Etcheverry |
1421 |
10.58% |
3.14% |
0.45% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 24 |
Jannik Sinner |
1792 |
89.42% |
69.85% |
37.36% |
22.23% |
9.04% |
2.70% |
| 25 |
Cameron Norrie |
1756 |
77.19% |
63.77% |
36.04% |
16.98% |
6.15% |
1.61% |
| 26 |
Constant Lestienne |
1544 |
22.81% |
13.33% |
3.95% |
0.88% |
0.14% |
0.01% |
| 27 |
Christopher Eubanks |
1462 |
44.34% |
9.23% |
1.97% |
0.31% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 28 |
Jiri Lehecka |
1502 |
55.66% |
13.67% |
3.43% |
0.64% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
| 29 |
Francisco Cerundolo |
1592 |
49.75% |
15.27% |
6.15% |
1.66% |
0.32% |
0.04% |
| 30 |
Corentin Moutet |
1594 |
50.25% |
15.52% |
6.29% |
1.71% |
0.33% |
0.05% |
| 31 |
Alex Molcan |
1575 |
22.58% |
10.70% |
4.09% |
1.03% |
0.18% |
0.02% |
| 32 |
Felix Auger-Aliassime |
1789 |
77.42% |
58.50% |
38.09% |
19.65% |
7.92% |
2.34% |
| 33 |
Andrey Rublev |
1780 |
74.80% |
53.28% |
33.26% |
8.32% |
3.87% |
1.58% |
| 34 |
Emil Ruusuvuori |
1591 |
25.20% |
11.46% |
4.24% |
0.51% |
0.12% |
0.02% |
| 35 |
Jeremy Chardy |
1620 |
49.54% |
17.37% |
7.10% |
0.97% |
0.26% |
0.06% |
| 36 |
Daniel Evans |
1624 |
50.46% |
17.89% |
7.39% |
1.02% |
0.28% |
0.06% |
| 37 |
Roman Safiullin |
1549 |
34.16% |
10.03% |
3.02% |
0.30% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 38 |
Richard Gasquet |
1663 |
65.84% |
28.78% |
12.83% |
2.08% |
0.66% |
0.18% |
| 39 |
Maxime Cressy |
1578 |
26.59% |
11.58% |
3.89% |
0.44% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
| 40 |
Holger Rune |
1754 |
73.41% |
49.60% |
28.26% |
6.46% |
2.80% |
1.05% |
| 41 |
Pablo Carreno Busta |
1701 |
69.28% |
35.09% |
5.53% |
2.68% |
0.98% |
0.30% |
| 42 |
Benjamin Bonzi |
1560 |
30.72% |
9.61% |
0.84% |
0.25% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 43 |
John Isner |
1687 |
47.52% |
25.68% |
3.83% |
1.78% |
0.62% |
0.18% |
| 44 |
Alex De Minaur |
1705 |
52.48% |
29.62% |
4.74% |
2.32% |
0.86% |
0.27% |
| 45 |
Grigor Dimitrov |
1676 |
63.75% |
7.26% |
3.53% |
1.59% |
0.53% |
0.15% |
| 46 |
Laslo Djere |
1578 |
36.25% |
2.67% |
0.94% |
0.30% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 47 |
Enzo Couacuad |
1490 |
3.36% |
1.01% |
0.25% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 48 |
Novak Djokovic |
2074 |
96.64% |
89.07% |
80.34% |
70.91% |
57.42% |
44.27% |
| 49 |
Taylor Fritz |
1773 |
83.98% |
67.92% |
27.82% |
16.58% |
4.55% |
1.81% |
| 50 |
Alexei Popyrin |
1485 |
16.02% |
7.16% |
1.01% |
0.23% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 51 |
Ben Shelton |
1523 |
50.27% |
12.58% |
2.09% |
0.56% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 52 |
Nicolas Jarry |
1521 |
49.73% |
12.35% |
2.03% |
0.54% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 53 |
Diego Schwartzman |
1628 |
57.33% |
12.08% |
5.03% |
2.00% |
0.32% |
0.07% |
| 54 |
J. J. Wolf |
1577 |
42.67% |
7.30% |
2.59% |
0.86% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
| 55 |
Laurent Lokoli |
1470 |
7.59% |
2.39% |
0.58% |
0.12% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 56 |
Alexander Zverev |
1904 |
92.41% |
78.24% |
58.86% |
44.41% |
18.19% |
10.42% |
| 57 |
Andy Murray |
1679 |
62.65% |
34.06% |
15.14% |
4.77% |
0.93% |
0.27% |
| 58 |
Thanasi Kokkinakis |
1589 |
37.35% |
15.73% |
5.15% |
1.15% |
0.16% |
0.03% |
| 59 |
Aleksandar Vukic |
1520 |
27.08% |
8.93% |
2.22% |
0.37% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 60 |
Roberto Bautista Agut |
1692 |
72.92% |
41.28% |
19.11% |
6.31% |
1.30% |
0.39% |
| 61 |
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina |
1606 |
37.40% |
12.00% |
5.15% |
1.24% |
0.18% |
0.04% |
| 62 |
Tommy Paul |
1695 |
62.60% |
27.35% |
15.16% |
5.06% |
1.06% |
0.32% |
| 63 |
Jenson Brooksby |
1633 |
29.36% |
13.46% |
6.28% |
1.67% |
0.27% |
0.06% |
| 64 |
Casper Ruud |
1785 |
70.64% |
47.18% |
31.78% |
14.11% |
4.03% |
1.67% |
And my latest Women's ratings and predictions:
| # |
Name |
ELO |
R1 % |
R2 % |
R3 % |
R4 % |
R5 % |
R6 % |
| 1 |
Iga Swiatek |
1947 |
90.77% |
73.01% |
58.65% |
47.39% |
36.46% |
27.43% |
| 2 |
Camila Osorio |
1550 |
9.23% |
2.98% |
0.90% |
0.29% |
0.08% |
0.02% |
| 3 |
Cristina Bucsa |
1466 |
17.72% |
1.57% |
0.33% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 4 |
Bianca Andreescu |
1732 |
82.28% |
22.44% |
12.27% |
6.93% |
3.46% |
1.65% |
| 5 |
Elena Rybakina |
1715 |
73.42% |
37.59% |
11.00% |
5.96% |
2.82% |
1.28% |
| 6 |
Kaja Juvan |
1538 |
26.58% |
7.35% |
1.05% |
0.33% |
0.08% |
0.02% |
| 7 |
Karolina Muchova |
1670 |
41.18% |
20.63% |
5.10% |
2.46% |
1.01% |
0.40% |
| 8 |
Danielle Collins |
1732 |
58.82% |
34.42% |
10.71% |
6.04% |
3.01% |
1.43% |
| 9 |
Caty McNally |
1533 |
54.79% |
19.55% |
5.59% |
0.90% |
0.22% |
0.05% |
| 10 |
Kateryna Baindl |
1499 |
45.21% |
14.28% |
3.57% |
0.49% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
| 11 |
Anna Bondar |
1520 |
27.95% |
14.07% |
3.83% |
0.58% |
0.14% |
0.03% |
| 12 |
Jelena Ostapenko |
1685 |
72.05% |
52.10% |
24.87% |
7.41% |
3.21% |
1.32% |
| 13 |
Zheng Qinwen |
1641 |
59.61% |
22.53% |
12.34% |
3.12% |
1.17% |
0.41% |
| 14 |
Bernada Pera |
1573 |
40.39% |
11.96% |
5.45% |
1.05% |
0.30% |
0.08% |
| 15 |
Emma Raducanu |
1584 |
24.65% |
11.30% |
5.33% |
1.07% |
0.32% |
0.09% |
| 16 |
Coco Gauff |
1778 |
75.35% |
54.20% |
39.03% |
15.90% |
8.95% |
4.84% |
| 17 |
Jessica Pegula |
1794 |
72.21% |
57.26% |
34.78% |
21.60% |
9.94% |
5.59% |
| 18 |
Aliaksandra Sasnovich |
1628 |
27.79% |
16.66% |
6.34% |
2.50% |
0.67% |
0.23% |
| 19 |
Olivia Gadecki |
1492 |
35.87% |
7.00% |
1.57% |
0.37% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 20 |
Marta Kostyuk |
1593 |
64.13% |
19.08% |
6.40% |
2.24% |
0.52% |
0.15% |
| 21 |
Barbora Krejcikova |
1743 |
79.40% |
44.34% |
24.15% |
13.32% |
5.27% |
2.59% |
| 22 |
Clara Burel |
1508 |
20.60% |
5.28% |
1.36% |
0.34% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 23 |
Anhelina Kalinina |
1596 |
29.98% |
11.03% |
3.93% |
1.39% |
0.33% |
0.10% |
| 24 |
Petra Kvitova |
1744 |
70.02% |
39.35% |
21.49% |
11.88% |
4.72% |
2.32% |
| 25 |
Madison Keys |
1700 |
79.38% |
39.51% |
21.37% |
9.72% |
3.35% |
1.45% |
| 26 |
Wang Xinyu |
1465 |
20.62% |
4.48% |
1.13% |
0.21% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 27 |
Nadia Podoroska |
1551 |
24.42% |
8.91% |
3.10% |
0.83% |
0.16% |
0.04% |
| 28 |
Victoria Azarenka |
1747 |
75.58% |
47.11% |
28.43% |
14.79% |
5.94% |
2.96% |
| 29 |
Jil Teichmann |
1599 |
66.81% |
24.61% |
8.94% |
2.90% |
0.69% |
0.21% |
| 30 |
Zhu Lin |
1477 |
33.19% |
7.76% |
1.76% |
0.35% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 31 |
Diana Shnaider |
1509 |
20.49% |
8.82% |
2.28% |
0.52% |
0.08% |
0.02% |
| 32 |
Maria Sakkari |
1744 |
79.51% |
58.81% |
32.98% |
17.03% |
6.78% |
3.35% |
| 33 |
Daria Kasatkina |
1745 |
74.56% |
46.61% |
25.27% |
14.03% |
6.87% |
2.83% |
| 34 |
Tatjana Maria |
1558 |
25.44% |
9.25% |
2.76% |
0.84% |
0.22% |
0.04% |
| 35 |
Yulia Putintseva |
1630 |
43.58% |
17.76% |
6.88% |
2.73% |
0.92% |
0.25% |
| 36 |
Karolina Pliskova |
1675 |
56.42% |
26.38% |
11.79% |
5.40% |
2.13% |
0.70% |
| 37 |
Zhang Shuai |
1627 |
46.88% |
16.86% |
6.99% |
2.74% |
0.92% |
0.25% |
| 38 |
Petra Martic |
1649 |
53.12% |
20.50% |
9.11% |
3.84% |
1.39% |
0.41% |
| 39 |
Katie Volynets |
1427 |
12.11% |
2.76% |
0.52% |
0.09% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 40 |
Veronika Kudermetova |
1771 |
87.89% |
59.88% |
36.69% |
21.69% |
11.41% |
5.08% |
| 41 |
Anett Kontaveit |
1724 |
69.62% |
40.39% |
21.60% |
11.05% |
5.09% |
1.96% |
| 42 |
Magda Linette |
1579 |
30.38% |
11.78% |
4.01% |
1.28% |
0.36% |
0.08% |
| 43 |
Taylor Townsend |
1499 |
22.89% |
6.12% |
1.52% |
0.35% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 44 |
Ekaterina Alexandrova |
1710 |
77.11% |
41.72% |
21.53% |
10.60% |
4.69% |
1.73% |
| 45 |
Irina-Camelia Begu |
1673 |
67.72% |
29.02% |
13.89% |
6.13% |
2.41% |
0.78% |
| 46 |
Laura Siegemund |
1544 |
32.28% |
8.62% |
2.67% |
0.74% |
0.18% |
0.03% |
| 47 |
Leylah Fernandez |
1646 |
33.64% |
17.46% |
7.69% |
3.11% |
1.11% |
0.33% |
| 48 |
Caroline Garcia |
1764 |
66.36% |
44.90% |
27.10% |
15.37% |
7.92% |
3.46% |
| 49 |
Aryna Sabalenka |
1804 |
72.58% |
53.36% |
33.31% |
20.15% |
12.40% |
6.06% |
| 50 |
Shelby Rogers |
1635 |
27.42% |
14.10% |
5.68% |
2.15% |
0.82% |
0.23% |
| 51 |
Lauren Davis |
1581 |
39.63% |
10.82% |
3.64% |
1.14% |
0.36% |
0.08% |
| 52 |
Elise Mertens |
1654 |
60.37% |
21.72% |
9.28% |
3.74% |
1.53% |
0.46% |
| 53 |
Anna Karolina Schmiedlova |
1466 |
27.84% |
5.27% |
1.04% |
0.20% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 54 |
Camila Giorgi |
1631 |
72.16% |
25.97% |
9.80% |
3.67% |
1.38% |
0.38% |
| 55 |
Claire Liu |
1535 |
19.28% |
8.28% |
2.18% |
0.57% |
0.15% |
0.03% |
| 56 |
Belinda Bencic |
1783 |
80.72% |
60.48% |
35.06% |
20.25% |
11.90% |
5.49% |
| 57 |
Beatriz Haddad Maia |
1677 |
60.42% |
30.48% |
12.76% |
5.30% |
2.33% |
0.77% |
| 58 |
Sloane Stephens |
1604 |
39.58% |
15.88% |
5.22% |
1.68% |
0.58% |
0.14% |
| 59 |
Donna Vekic |
1629 |
39.46% |
18.66% |
6.69% |
2.36% |
0.89% |
0.24% |
| 60 |
Liudmila Samsonova |
1704 |
60.54% |
34.98% |
15.83% |
7.12% |
3.39% |
1.22% |
| 61 |
Kimberly Birrell |
1528 |
46.22% |
8.80% |
2.75% |
0.66% |
0.17% |
0.03% |
| 62 |
Linda Fruhvirtova |
1554 |
53.78% |
11.53% |
3.99% |
1.06% |
0.30% |
0.06% |
| 63 |
Marketa Vondrousova |
1718 |
35.85% |
26.32% |
15.11% |
7.10% |
3.53% |
1.34% |
| 64 |
Ons Jabeur |
1820 |
64.15% |
53.35% |
37.65% |
22.84% |
14.53% |
7.40% |
