The 3rd round of the US Open is now complete, so let's take a look at how that affected my rankings of the players still in and also how well I expect them to do for the rest of the tournament.
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View my pre-tournament predictions for the Men and the Women here, but before the latest rankings, some stats I calculated for the top 150 players:
| Rank | ± Men | ± Wmn |
|---|---|---|
| 1-10 | 26 | 72 |
| 11-20 | 21 | 9 |
| 21-50 | -47 | -48 |
| 51-100 | -55 | 1 |
| 101-150 | -21 | -28 |
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Now, my latest Men's ratings and predictions:
| # | Name | ELO | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Alcaraz | 1998 | 91.87% | 64.15% | 45.00% | 22.23% |
| 2 | Matteo Arnaldi | 1577 | 8.13% | 1.38% | 0.26% | 0.03% |
| 3 | Alexander Zverev | 1858 | 51.72% | 18.18% | 9.45% | 3.13% |
| 4 | Jannik Sinner | 1846 | 48.28% | 16.29% | 8.20% | 2.61% |
| 5 | Daniil Medvedev | 1911 | 70.03% | 47.94% | 21.84% | 8.52% |
| 6 | Alex De Minaur | 1764 | 29.97% | 14.63% | 3.98% | 0.96% |
| 7 | Jack Draper | 1671 | 30.28% | 7.60% | 1.39% | 0.23% |
| 8 | Andrey Rublev | 1816 | 69.72% | 29.84% | 9.89% | 2.85% |
| 9 | Rinky Hijikata | 1553 | 26.23% | 8.51% | 0.68% | 0.08% |
| 10 | Frances Tiafoe | 1732 | 73.77% | 41.32% | 7.31% | 1.92% |
| 11 | Tommy Paul | 1734 | 75.90% | 42.86% | 7.63% | 2.02% |
| 12 | Ben Shelton | 1535 | 24.10% | 7.32% | 0.54% | 0.06% |
| 13 | Dominic Stricker | 1575 | 23.92% | 1.70% | 0.56% | 0.07% |
| 14 | Taylor Fritz | 1776 | 76.08% | 13.13% | 7.85% | 2.45% |
| 15 | Borna Gojo | 1486 | 3.21% | 0.67% | 0.15% | 0.01% |
| 16 | Novak Djokovic | 2077 | 96.79% | 84.50% | 75.28% | 52.83% |
And my latest Women's ratings and predictions:
| # | Name | ELO | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iga Swiatek | 1975 | 78.78% | 56.91% | 43.57% | 30.15% |
| 2 | Jelena Ostapenko | 1747 | 21.22% | 8.94% | 4.25% | 1.63% |
| 3 | Caroline Wozniacki | 1711 | 31.47% | 7.44% | 3.16% | 1.06% |
| 4 | Coco Gauff | 1846 | 68.53% | 26.71% | 16.34% | 8.50% |
| 5 | Sorana Cirstea | 1673 | 33.77% | 13.56% | 3.06% | 0.89% |
| 6 | Belinda Bencic | 1790 | 66.23% | 36.87% | 13.04% | 5.75% |
| 7 | Karolina Muchova | 1792 | 80.78% | 45.02% | 16.02% | 7.11% |
| 8 | Wang Xinyu | 1542 | 19.22% | 4.54% | 0.57% | 0.09% |
| 9 | Peyton Stearns | 1578 | 19.64% | 4.09% | 0.80% | 0.14% |
| 10 | Marketa Vondrousova | 1823 | 80.36% | 41.13% | 20.11% | 8.76% |
| 11 | Madison Keys | 1747 | 35.45% | 16.24% | 6.26% | 2.13% |
| 12 | Jessica Pegula | 1851 | 64.55% | 38.54% | 20.37% | 9.63% |
| 13 | Ons Jabeur | 1833 | 69.15% | 33.73% | 17.81% | 7.99% |
| 14 | Zheng Qinwen | 1693 | 30.85% | 9.38% | 3.17% | 0.88% |
| 15 | Daria Kasatkina | 1743 | 30.67% | 13.32% | 5.37% | 1.80% |
| 16 | Aryna Sabalenka | 1884 | 69.33% | 43.57% | 26.11% | 13.50% |
