Thursday, 9 March 2017

2017 Indian Wells Predictions - Men's

I previewed this new feature to my Twitter followers a few weeks ago, but now I'm releasing it to the wild, my new ELO based tournament simulator, with predictions as to how likely each player is to get to each round. So, here we go!

Stock tournament image, ©printyourbrackets.com


But before the full table, some highlights I want to pick out.
  • As you would expect, Andy Murray is the most likely to win the tournament, with a 39.26% chance of winning the whole thing, with Novak Djokovic next at 23.23%. The 3rd most likely is Roger Federer with 7.61% and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 4th with 4.93%
  • Marcel Granollers has a really easy draw compared to other players with a similar ELO rating. I have him as the 46th most likely winner, while he is only the 60th highest ranked player here.
  • On the other hand, Andrey Kuznetsov has the toughest draw. He is the 58th most likely winner, but he is the 42nd highest ranked player competing.
  • The toughest 1st round draw went to Alexandr Dolgopolov, as he's the 76th most likely player to progress to round 2, but he's ranked 38th of the competitors. 
  • Julien Bennetau got the easiest 1st round draw, as he's the 50th most likely player to advance to round 2, while he's the 86th highest ranked competitor here.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates: Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.

(Updated after Mikhail Kukuskhin replaced Dmitry Tursunov)



Name ELO R1 % R2 % R3 % R4 % R5 % R6 % R7 %
Andy Murray 2015 100.00% 95.80% 90.61% 80.14% 66.08% 56.35% 39.26%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Vasek Pospisil 1469 49.28% 2.04% 0.89% 0.24% 0.05% 0.01% 0.00%
Yen-Hsun Lu 1474 50.72% 2.16% 0.96% 0.26% 0.05% 0.01% 0.00%
Dusan Lajovic 1484 58.41% 24.13% 1.56% 0.44% 0.09% 0.02% 0.00%
Frances Tiafoe 1425 41.59% 13.89% 0.68% 0.15% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Feliciano Lopez 1545 100.00% 61.99% 5.29% 1.88% 0.52% 0.15% 0.02%
Pablo Carreno Busta 1651 100.00% 71.22% 34.44% 5.64% 2.25% 0.97% 0.25%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Peter Gojowczyk 1477 45.69% 12.27% 3.25% 0.26% 0.06% 0.01% 0.00%
Reilly Opelka 1507 54.31% 16.50% 4.92% 0.45% 0.11% 0.03% 0.00%
Juan Monaco 1571 64.27% 20.24% 9.12% 1.09% 0.33% 0.11% 0.02%
Adrian Mannarino 1469 35.73% 7.27% 2.32% 0.18% 0.04% 0.01% 0.00%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Roberto Bautista Agut 1706 100.00% 72.49% 45.96% 9.26% 4.35% 2.20% 0.69%
David Goffin 1715 100.00% 75.82% 52.85% 24.80% 5.92% 3.07% 0.99%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Tommy Robredo 1517 50.14% 12.15% 5.17% 1.26% 0.14% 0.04% 0.01%
Karen Khachanov 1516 49.86% 12.03% 5.10% 1.24% 0.13% 0.04% 0.01%
Damir Dzumhur 1509 40.61% 15.99% 4.73% 1.12% 0.12% 0.03% 0.00%
Ryan Harrison 1575 59.39% 28.92% 10.85% 3.29% 0.46% 0.15% 0.03%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Albert Ramos Vinolas 1584 100.00% 55.09% 21.30% 6.66% 0.96% 0.33% 0.06%
Pablo Cuevas 1575 100.00% 59.80% 15.26% 6.24% 0.87% 0.29% 0.05%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Martin Klizan 1520 54.45% 22.95% 4.69% 1.59% 0.17% 0.05% 0.01%
Thiago Monteiro 1489 45.55% 17.25% 3.09% 0.93% 0.09% 0.02% 0.00%
Fabio Fognini 1570 69.73% 13.55% 7.21% 2.90% 0.40% 0.13% 0.02%
Konstantin Kravchuk 1425 30.27% 2.87% 0.95% 0.22% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 1817 100.00% 83.58% 68.80% 49.75% 16.78% 10.99% 4.93%
Stan Wawrinka 1767 100.00% 81.40% 58.38% 36.78% 23.43% 7.26% 2.80%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Robin Haase 1514 51.01% 9.64% 3.59% 1.09% 0.33% 0.04% 0.01%
Paolo Lorenzi 1507 48.99% 8.96% 3.26% 0.96% 0.28% 0.03% 0.00%
Alexandr Dolgopolov 1564 45.27% 18.89% 5.67% 2.06% 0.75% 0.10% 0.02%
Victor Troicki 1597 54.73% 25.40% 8.59% 3.47% 1.41% 0.23% 0.05%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Philipp Kohlschreiber 1622 100.00% 55.71% 20.51% 8.97% 3.95% 0.71% 0.16%
Ivo Karlovic 1610 100.00% 69.63% 26.81% 10.39% 4.40% 0.75% 0.16%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Yoshihito Nishioka 1496 61.86% 21.13% 5.36% 1.36% 0.38% 0.04% 0.01%
Elias Ymer 1412 38.14% 9.24% 1.64% 0.29% 0.06% 0.00% 0.00%
Bjorn Fratangelo 1457 36.66% 5.98% 2.09% 0.45% 0.11% 0.01% 0.00%
Bernard Tomic 1552 63.34% 15.96% 7.61% 2.41% 0.84% 0.11% 0.02%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Tomas Berdych 1741 100.00% 78.06% 56.49% 31.75% 19.14% 5.42% 1.92%
Gael Monfils 1718 100.00% 77.57% 51.12% 31.23% 16.20% 4.22% 1.38%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Nikoloz Basilashvili 1517 54.73% 13.09% 5.12% 1.76% 0.47% 0.05% 0.01%
Darian King 1484 45.27% 9.34% 3.26% 0.99% 0.23% 0.02% 0.00%
Jordan Thompson 1462 51.29% 13.32% 3.24% 0.90% 0.19% 0.02% 0.00%
Mikhail Kukushkin 1453 48.71% 12.17% 2.86% 0.77% 0.16% 0.01% 0.00%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
John Isner 1644 100.00% 74.51% 34.40% 17.59% 7.36% 1.45% 0.36%
Mischa Zverev 1570 100.00% 52.89% 19.91% 7.53% 2.45% 0.35% 0.06%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Joao Sousa 1558 52.44% 25.32% 9.15% 3.32% 1.03% 0.14% 0.02%
Diego Schwartzman 1541 47.56% 21.80% 7.42% 2.54% 0.74% 0.09% 0.01%
Radu Albot 1410 33.51% 5.13% 1.52% 0.31% 0.05% 0.00% 0.00%
Jeremy Chardy 1529 66.49% 17.56% 7.98% 2.61% 0.73% 0.09% 0.01%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Dominic Thiem 1707 100.00% 77.31% 54.02% 30.44% 15.33% 3.84% 1.21%
Marin Cilic 1736 100.00% 79.75% 62.09% 32.02% 18.07% 5.57% 1.74%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Benoit Paire 1521 58.41% 13.13% 6.64% 1.63% 0.47% 0.06% 0.01%
Taylor Fritz 1462 41.59% 7.12% 3.00% 0.57% 0.13% 0.01% 0.00%
Nicolas Mahut 1540 54.88% 29.96% 9.22% 2.45% 0.75% 0.10% 0.01%
Malek Jaziri 1506 45.12% 22.43% 6.07% 1.40% 0.38% 0.04% 0.01%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Marcel Granollers 1508 100.00% 47.61% 12.98% 3.02% 0.82% 0.10% 0.01%
Jack Sock 1726 100.00% 77.58% 39.13% 23.24% 12.80% 3.81% 1.15%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Henri Laaksonen 1465 39.78% 7.24% 1.46% 0.40% 0.09% 0.01% 0.00%
Borna Coric 1537 60.22% 15.17% 4.10% 1.44% 0.44% 0.06% 0.01%
Daniil Medvedev 1554 58.83% 13.35% 4.47% 1.66% 0.54% 0.08% 0.01%
Mikhail Youzhny 1492 41.17% 7.01% 1.86% 0.56% 0.14% 0.02% 0.00%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Grigor Dimitrov 1767 100.00% 79.64% 48.97% 31.60% 19.13% 6.59% 2.28%
Lucas Pouille 1661 100.00% 78.93% 46.94% 20.48% 8.66% 2.00% 0.48%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Santiago Giraldo 1435 51.01% 10.92% 3.17% 0.59% 0.10% 0.01% 0.00%
Jan-Lennard Struff 1428 48.99% 10.16% 2.87% 0.51% 0.09% 0.01% 0.00%
Donald Young 1568 63.07% 26.50% 11.56% 3.69% 1.13% 0.17% 0.03%
Stefan Kozlov 1475 36.93% 11.00% 3.52% 0.78% 0.16% 0.02% 0.00%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Sam Querrey 1624 100.00% 62.51% 31.95% 12.40% 4.64% 0.92% 0.19%
Gilles Muller 1657 100.00% 69.38% 27.47% 15.18% 6.34% 1.44% 0.34%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Renzo Olivo 1485 42.71% 11.57% 2.38% 0.77% 0.17% 0.02% 0.00%
Jiri Vesely 1536 57.29% 19.05% 4.85% 1.87% 0.51% 0.07% 0.01%
Dustin Brown 1518 39.37% 7.13% 2.63% 0.95% 0.24% 0.03% 0.00%
Daniel Evans 1593 60.63% 15.41% 7.24% 3.35% 1.13% 0.19% 0.04%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Kei Nishikori 1780 100.00% 77.46% 55.43% 39.44% 23.09% 8.31% 3.00%
Rafael Nadal 1810 100.00% 88.70% 70.13% 35.47% 14.24% 8.85% 3.50%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez 1449 49.14% 5.47% 1.79% 0.25% 0.02% 0.00% 0.00%
Guido Pella 1455 50.86% 5.83% 1.95% 0.28% 0.03% 0.01% 0.00%
Pierre-Hugues Herbert 1514 47.84% 17.54% 3.56% 0.66% 0.09% 0.02% 0.00%
Thomaz Bellucci 1529 52.16% 20.18% 4.35% 0.86% 0.12% 0.03% 0.00%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Fernando Verdasco 1609 100.00% 62.28% 18.22% 4.90% 0.97% 0.34% 0.07%
Steve Johnson 1615 100.00% 60.04% 14.00% 4.78% 0.97% 0.35% 0.07%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Kevin Anderson 1576 62.27% 27.65% 5.53% 1.65% 0.28% 0.09% 0.01%
Federico Gaio 1489 37.73% 12.31% 1.71% 0.36% 0.04% 0.01% 0.00%
Stephane Robert 1427 45.55% 3.35% 0.96% 0.16% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
Dudi Sela 1458 54.45% 4.72% 1.52% 0.28% 0.03% 0.01% 0.00%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Roger Federer 1867 100.00% 91.93% 76.28% 50.35% 23.71% 16.44% 7.61%
Nick Kyrgios 1720 100.00% 81.28% 48.70% 12.78% 4.86% 2.43% 0.72%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Marius Copil 1489 58.97% 12.34% 3.74% 0.37% 0.06% 0.01% 0.00%
Horacio Zeballos 1426 41.03% 6.38% 1.52% 0.11% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
Julien Bennetau 1447 54.88% 10.92% 2.49% 0.20% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00%
Facundo Bagnis 1413 45.12% 7.65% 1.51% 0.10% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Alexander Zverev 1689 100.00% 81.43% 42.04% 9.83% 3.36% 1.53% 0.41%
Juan Martin del Potro 1713 100.00% 73.76% 15.91% 8.57% 3.19% 1.56% 0.45%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Federico Delbonis 1508 43.70% 10.27% 0.92% 0.25% 0.04% 0.01% 0.00%
Andrey Kuznetsov 1552 56.30% 15.96% 1.75% 0.57% 0.11% 0.03% 0.00%
Kyle Edmund 1559 62.94% 5.12% 1.82% 0.61% 0.13% 0.04% 0.01%
Gastao Elias 1467 37.06% 1.84% 0.46% 0.11% 0.01% 0.00% 0.00%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Novak Djokovic 1980 100.00% 93.04% 79.14% 66.49% 47.67% 38.63% 23.23%

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