Monday, 27 March 2017

2017 Miami Week 2 Predictions - Women's

We're down to the last 16, so I'm going to update my Miami prediction, but first, a look at how the early rounds went.

Stock tournament image, ©

  • Of the 4 favourites for the title before the tournament, 3 of them are still in. Elina Svitolina was the only one not to make it to the 4th round, losing to Bethanie Mattek-Sands in the 2nd round.
  • Whilst Kiki Bertens had the easiest overall draw, this didn't help her to victory, as she lost to Risa Ozaki in the 2nd round. Varvara Lepchenko had the toughest overall draw, and lost in the 2nd round to Caroline Wozniacki
  • Carina Witthoft and Kateryna Bondarenko had the easiest 1st round draws, and won as expected before losing to Yulia Putintseva and Mirjana Lucic-Baroni in the 2nd round. Despite having the toughest 1st round draw, Johanna Larsson won her match before losing to Barbora Strycova.
But what about the future? Let's take a look at what the rest of the tournament looks like
  • Karolina Pliskova now has a 17.43% chance of winning the title, Angelique Kerber is 2nd at 15.19%, Johanna Konta is 3rd at 12.64%, 4th is Simona Halep at 10.26%.
  • Simona Halep now has the easiest draw to the title relative to her ranking, as she's the 4th most likely to win while having the 6th highest ranking of the remaining players.
  • On the other hand, 4 players are tied with the toughest draw relative to their ranking, Risa Ozaki, Svetlana Kuznetsova, Samantha Stosur and Caroline Wozniacki are ranked 15th, 5th, 12th and 4th respectively, but are all 1 place less likely to win the tournament than expected, 
  • As for the next match, it's Caroline Wozniacki who has the toughest 4th round match compared to her ranking. She's the 4th highest ranked player still in, but she's 8th most likely player to make it to the quarter finals,
  • The player with the easiest next match compared to her ranking is Mirjana Lucic-Baroni. She is the 6th most likely to advance, while being the 13th highest ranked player.
Now, the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates: Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.

NameELOR4 %R5 %R6 %R7 %
Angelique Kerber
Risa Ozaki
Venus Williams
Svetlana Kuznetsova
Simona Halep
Samantha Stosur
Johanna Konta
Lara Arruabarrena
Garbine Muguruza
Caroline Wozniacki
Lucie Safarova
Dominika Cibulkova
Mirjana Lucic-Baroni
Bethanie Mattek-Sands
Barbora Strycova
Karolina Pliskova

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