Wednesday, 22 March 2017

2017 Miami Predictions - Men's

My tournament simulator returns for the Miami tournament, with a look at the Men's draw.

Stock tournament image, ©printyourbrackets.com

(Updated after Bernard Tomic was replaced with Mikhail Youzhny)
  • Roger Federer is the most likely player to win the tournament, with a 23.93% chance of winning the whole thing, with Rafael Nadal next at 9.61%. The 3rd most likely is Stan Wawrinka with 8.97% and Milos Raonic 4th with 8.15%
  • Paolo Lorenzi has a really easy draw compared to other players with a similar ELO rating. I have him as the 41st most likely winner, while he is only the 54th highest ranked player here.
  • On the other hand, Mikael Ymer (note: who is probably overrated by my system) has the toughest draw. He is the 65th highest ranked player here, but is the 75th most likely winner of the tournament (Ymer's Round 1 opponent Robin Haase has the next toughest draw).
  • The toughest 1st round draw went to Ryan Harrison, as he's the 71st most likely player to progress to round 2, but he's ranked 37th of the competitors. 
  • Adrian Mannarino got the easiest 1st round draw, as he's the 41st most likely player to advance to round 2, while he's the 75th highest ranked competitors here.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates: Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.


Name ELO R1 % R2 % R3 % R4 % R5 % R6 % R7 %
Stan Wawrinka 1789 100.00% 87.64% 70.53% 49.45% 32.04% 16.02% 8.97%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Gastao Elias 1460 53.59% 7.01% 2.69% 0.74% 0.17% 0.03% 0.00%
Horacio Zeballos 1435 46.41% 5.35% 1.87% 0.46% 0.10% 0.01% 0.00%
Alexandr Dolgopolov 1566 55.02% 30.12% 8.19% 3.31% 1.16% 0.27% 0.07%
Malek Jaziri 1531 44.98% 22.36% 5.32% 1.91% 0.59% 0.12% 0.03%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Feliciano Lopez 1533 100.00% 47.52% 11.39% 4.11% 1.28% 0.26% 0.06%
John Isner 1641 100.00% 70.55% 35.53% 14.34% 6.44% 2.03% 0.73%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Thomaz Bellucci 1519 61.72% 20.45% 7.02% 1.87% 0.55% 0.11% 0.02%
Stephane Robert 1436 38.28% 9.00% 2.25% 0.43% 0.09% 0.01% 0.00%
Casper Ruud 1504 55.73% 14.60% 5.43% 1.36% 0.38% 0.07% 0.01%
Yen-Hsun Lu 1464 44.27% 9.73% 3.13% 0.67% 0.16% 0.02% 0.00%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Alexander Zverev 1684 100.00% 75.67% 46.63% 21.34% 10.84% 3.97% 1.65%
Nick Kyrgios 1742 100.00% 80.28% 58.61% 36.79% 20.08% 8.81% 4.37%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Damir Dzumhur 1513 54.88% 11.59% 4.92% 1.60% 0.42% 0.08% 0.02%
Chung Hyeon 1479 45.12% 8.14% 3.08% 0.88% 0.20% 0.03% 0.01%
Denis Istomin 1475 40.61% 13.46% 3.15% 0.89% 0.20% 0.03% 0.01%
Andrey Kuznetsov 1541 59.39% 24.95% 7.55% 2.71% 0.79% 0.17% 0.04%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Ivo Karlovic 1597 100.00% 61.60% 22.71% 9.82% 3.50% 0.94% 0.29%
David Ferrer 1607 100.00% 61.43% 25.72% 10.79% 3.97% 1.10% 0.35%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Karen Khachanov 1521 48.56% 18.39% 5.76% 1.80% 0.48% 0.09% 0.02%
Diego Schwartzman 1531 51.44% 20.18% 6.55% 2.13% 0.59% 0.12% 0.03%
Darian King 1491 58.97% 12.91% 4.93% 1.38% 0.33% 0.06% 0.01%
Lukas Lacko 1428 41.03% 6.70% 2.02% 0.44% 0.08% 0.01% 0.00%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
David Goffin 1712 100.00% 80.40% 55.02% 30.77% 15.56% 6.23% 2.83%
Roger Federer 1900 100.00% 94.13% 73.59% 59.83% 46.21% 34.06% 23.93%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Frances Tiafoe 1417 49.71% 2.90% 0.60% 0.14% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00%
Konstantin Kravchuk 1419 50.29% 2.97% 0.61% 0.14% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00%
Robin Haase 1504 51.15% 11.76% 1.46% 0.48% 0.13% 0.03% 0.01%
Mikael Ymer 1496 48.85% 10.84% 1.30% 0.41% 0.11% 0.03% 0.01%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Juan Martin del Potro 1714 100.00% 77.40% 22.44% 13.61% 7.44% 3.72% 1.70%
Sam Querrey 1613 100.00% 64.86% 28.98% 6.55% 2.68% 0.98% 0.32%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Nikoloz Basilashvili 1506 49.86% 17.48% 5.46% 0.78% 0.22% 0.05% 0.01%
Tommy Robredo 1507 50.14% 17.65% 5.53% 0.79% 0.22% 0.05% 0.01%
Mikhail Youzhny 1500 56.02% 13.58% 5.36% 0.74% 0.20% 0.05% 0.01%
Mikhail Kukushkin 1458 43.98% 8.83% 3.00% 0.34% 0.08% 0.02% 0.00%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Roberto Bautista Agut 1698 100.00% 77.59% 51.67% 16.19% 8.49% 4.06% 1.77%
Tomas Berdych 1728 100.00% 81.45% 53.08% 32.91% 12.98% 6.74% 3.21%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Andrey Rublev 1446 43.84% 7.22% 2.05% 0.55% 0.07% 0.01% 0.00%
Florian Mayer 1489 56.16% 11.33% 3.78% 1.20% 0.19% 0.04% 0.01%
Radu Albot 1403 32.88% 6.19% 1.13% 0.26% 0.03% 0.00% 0.00%
Andreas Seppi 1527 67.12% 21.56% 6.51% 2.36% 0.44% 0.12% 0.03%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Gilles Muller 1657 100.00% 72.26% 33.45% 17.69% 5.50% 2.33% 0.89%
Paolo Lorenzi 1513 100.00% 59.15% 17.45% 5.10% 0.90% 0.22% 0.05%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Adrian Mannarino 1478 60.90% 27.39% 7.05% 1.79% 0.27% 0.06% 0.01%
Benjamin Becker 1401 39.10% 13.46% 2.50% 0.46% 0.05% 0.01% 0.00%
Marcel Granollers 1498 46.12% 10.05% 5.16% 1.42% 0.23% 0.05% 0.01%
Borna Coric 1525 53.88% 13.23% 7.30% 2.23% 0.41% 0.11% 0.02%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Dominic Thiem 1720 100.00% 76.72% 60.55% 34.04% 13.09% 6.65% 3.10%
Rafael Nadal 1809 100.00% 87.43% 68.26% 44.49% 27.09% 17.89% 9.61%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Christian Harrison 1490 56.16% 7.72% 2.90% 0.73% 0.16% 0.04% 0.01%
Dudi Sela 1447 43.84% 4.85% 1.56% 0.33% 0.06% 0.01% 0.00%
Adam Pavlasek 1481 50.00% 15.19% 2.72% 0.66% 0.14% 0.03% 0.01%
Taylor Fritz 1481 50.00% 15.19% 2.72% 0.66% 0.14% 0.03% 0.01%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Philipp Kohlschreiber 1625 100.00% 69.61% 21.84% 8.96% 3.29% 1.37% 0.41%
Steve Johnson 1620 100.00% 66.34% 24.50% 8.53% 3.08% 1.26% 0.37%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Michael Mmoh 1459 40.06% 11.36% 2.30% 0.43% 0.08% 0.02% 0.00%
Nicolas Mahut 1529 59.94% 22.29% 5.96% 1.49% 0.38% 0.11% 0.02%
Guido Pella 1463 52.73% 8.08% 2.74% 0.52% 0.10% 0.02% 0.00%
Tim Smyczek 1444 47.27% 6.60% 2.08% 0.37% 0.07% 0.01% 0.00%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Grigor Dimitrov 1760 100.00% 85.32% 62.41% 32.81% 17.85% 10.67% 5.04%
Jack Sock 1751 100.00% 80.80% 60.59% 33.02% 16.73% 9.80% 4.51%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Yoshihito Nishioka 1529 60.90% 13.27% 6.10% 1.68% 0.40% 0.12% 0.02%
Jordan Thompson 1452 39.10% 5.93% 2.11% 0.42% 0.07% 0.02% 0.00%
Jiri Vesely 1538 66.74% 28.79% 8.30% 2.36% 0.58% 0.18% 0.04%
Tommy Haas 1417 33.26% 9.12% 1.60% 0.28% 0.04% 0.01% 0.00%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Albert Ramos Vinolas 1586 100.00% 62.09% 21.30% 7.19% 2.13% 0.78% 0.20%
Mischa Zverev 1574 100.00% 56.00% 15.43% 5.70% 1.61% 0.56% 0.14%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Jared Donaldson 1478 37.87% 13.83% 2.57% 0.67% 0.13% 0.03% 0.00%
Kyle Edmund 1564 62.13% 30.17% 8.00% 2.86% 0.78% 0.26% 0.06%
Victor Troicki 1586 64.80% 14.77% 7.97% 3.06% 0.91% 0.33% 0.09%
Thiago Monteiro 1480 35.20% 4.86% 1.90% 0.50% 0.10% 0.02% 0.00%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Milos Raonic 1798 100.00% 80.37% 64.13% 42.27% 24.10% 15.59% 8.15%
Marin Cilic 1720 100.00% 78.29% 55.43% 36.49% 19.59% 8.77% 3.68%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Jeremy Chardy 1531 65.45% 16.49% 7.42% 2.96% 0.87% 0.19% 0.04%
Facundo Bagnis 1420 34.55% 5.22% 1.57% 0.41% 0.08% 0.01% 0.00%
Fabio Fognini 1582 52.73% 28.18% 10.59% 4.96% 1.76% 0.48% 0.12%
Ryan Harrison 1563 47.27% 23.97% 8.44% 3.73% 1.24% 0.32% 0.07%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Joao Sousa 1558 100.00% 47.84% 16.55% 7.21% 2.35% 0.59% 0.14%
Pablo Cuevas 1600 100.00% 62.04% 29.15% 12.71% 4.80% 1.42% 0.39%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Martin Klizan 1520 51.58% 19.96% 7.20% 2.40% 0.68% 0.14% 0.03%
Benoit Paire 1509 48.42% 18.01% 6.24% 2.00% 0.54% 0.11% 0.02%
Donald Young 1593 61.72% 25.58% 13.71% 5.85% 2.16% 0.62% 0.17%
Dustin Brown 1510 38.28% 11.68% 4.89% 1.57% 0.43% 0.09% 0.02%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Lucas Pouille 1653 100.00% 62.74% 38.82% 19.71% 8.80% 3.16% 1.06%
Pablo Carreno Busta 1676 100.00% 68.72% 42.86% 19.62% 10.76% 4.18% 1.52%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Juan Monaco 1558 56.30% 18.94% 8.78% 2.73% 1.06% 0.26% 0.06%
Federico Delbonis 1514 43.70% 12.34% 4.99% 1.31% 0.43% 0.09% 0.02%
Aljaz Bedene 1483 57.01% 17.18% 5.17% 1.20% 0.35% 0.06% 0.01%
Jan-Lennard Struff 1434 42.99% 10.56% 2.60% 0.49% 0.12% 0.02% 0.00%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Gilles Simon 1629 100.00% 72.26% 35.59% 14.12% 6.83% 2.25% 0.69%
Fernando Verdasco 1612 100.00% 57.62% 19.19% 9.23% 4.25% 1.31% 0.38%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Ernesto Escobedo 1482 34.16% 10.97% 2.19% 0.68% 0.20% 0.04% 0.01%
Daniel Evans 1596 65.84% 31.41% 9.87% 4.53% 1.99% 0.58% 0.16%
Kevin Anderson 1575 59.52% 13.62% 6.46% 2.78% 1.14% 0.30% 0.08%
Dusan Lajovic 1508 40.48% 6.80% 2.59% 0.89% 0.29% 0.06% 0.01%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Kei Nishikori 1786 100.00% 79.58% 59.70% 42.43% 29.32% 15.79% 8.00%

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