My tournament simulator returns for the Miami tournament, with a look at the Men's draw.
 |
| Stock tournament image, ©printyourbrackets.com |
(Updated after Bernard Tomic was replaced with Mikhail Youzhny)
- Roger Federer is the most likely player to win the tournament, with a 23.93% chance of winning the whole thing, with Rafael Nadal next at 9.61%. The 3rd most likely is Stan Wawrinka with 8.97% and Milos Raonic 4th with 8.15%
- Paolo Lorenzi has a really easy draw compared to other players with a similar ELO rating. I have him as the 41st most likely winner, while he is only the 54th highest ranked player here.
- On the other hand, Mikael Ymer (note: who is probably overrated by my system) has the toughest draw. He is the 65th highest ranked player here, but is the 75th most likely winner of the tournament (Ymer's Round 1 opponent Robin Haase has the next toughest draw).
- The toughest 1st round draw went to Ryan Harrison, as he's the 71st most likely player to progress to round 2, but he's ranked 37th of the competitors.
- Adrian Mannarino got the easiest 1st round draw, as he's the 41st most likely player to advance to round 2, while he's the 75th highest ranked competitors here.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates: Follow
@tennis_elo on Twitter.
| Name |
ELO |
R1 % |
R2 % |
R3 % |
R4 % |
R5 % |
R6 % |
R7 % |
| Stan Wawrinka |
1789 |
100.00% |
87.64% |
70.53% |
49.45% |
32.04% |
16.02% |
8.97% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Gastao Elias |
1460 |
53.59% |
7.01% |
2.69% |
0.74% |
0.17% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| Horacio Zeballos |
1435 |
46.41% |
5.35% |
1.87% |
0.46% |
0.10% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| Alexandr Dolgopolov |
1566 |
55.02% |
30.12% |
8.19% |
3.31% |
1.16% |
0.27% |
0.07% |
| Malek Jaziri |
1531 |
44.98% |
22.36% |
5.32% |
1.91% |
0.59% |
0.12% |
0.03% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Feliciano Lopez |
1533 |
100.00% |
47.52% |
11.39% |
4.11% |
1.28% |
0.26% |
0.06% |
| John Isner |
1641 |
100.00% |
70.55% |
35.53% |
14.34% |
6.44% |
2.03% |
0.73% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Thomaz Bellucci |
1519 |
61.72% |
20.45% |
7.02% |
1.87% |
0.55% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
| Stephane Robert |
1436 |
38.28% |
9.00% |
2.25% |
0.43% |
0.09% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| Casper Ruud |
1504 |
55.73% |
14.60% |
5.43% |
1.36% |
0.38% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| Yen-Hsun Lu |
1464 |
44.27% |
9.73% |
3.13% |
0.67% |
0.16% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Alexander Zverev |
1684 |
100.00% |
75.67% |
46.63% |
21.34% |
10.84% |
3.97% |
1.65% |
| Nick Kyrgios |
1742 |
100.00% |
80.28% |
58.61% |
36.79% |
20.08% |
8.81% |
4.37% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Damir Dzumhur |
1513 |
54.88% |
11.59% |
4.92% |
1.60% |
0.42% |
0.08% |
0.02% |
| Chung Hyeon |
1479 |
45.12% |
8.14% |
3.08% |
0.88% |
0.20% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| Denis Istomin |
1475 |
40.61% |
13.46% |
3.15% |
0.89% |
0.20% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| Andrey Kuznetsov |
1541 |
59.39% |
24.95% |
7.55% |
2.71% |
0.79% |
0.17% |
0.04% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Ivo Karlovic |
1597 |
100.00% |
61.60% |
22.71% |
9.82% |
3.50% |
0.94% |
0.29% |
| David Ferrer |
1607 |
100.00% |
61.43% |
25.72% |
10.79% |
3.97% |
1.10% |
0.35% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Karen Khachanov |
1521 |
48.56% |
18.39% |
5.76% |
1.80% |
0.48% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| Diego Schwartzman |
1531 |
51.44% |
20.18% |
6.55% |
2.13% |
0.59% |
0.12% |
0.03% |
| Darian King |
1491 |
58.97% |
12.91% |
4.93% |
1.38% |
0.33% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| Lukas Lacko |
1428 |
41.03% |
6.70% |
2.02% |
0.44% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| David Goffin |
1712 |
100.00% |
80.40% |
55.02% |
30.77% |
15.56% |
6.23% |
2.83% |
| Roger Federer |
1900 |
100.00% |
94.13% |
73.59% |
59.83% |
46.21% |
34.06% |
23.93% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Frances Tiafoe |
1417 |
49.71% |
2.90% |
0.60% |
0.14% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Konstantin Kravchuk |
1419 |
50.29% |
2.97% |
0.61% |
0.14% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Robin Haase |
1504 |
51.15% |
11.76% |
1.46% |
0.48% |
0.13% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| Mikael Ymer |
1496 |
48.85% |
10.84% |
1.30% |
0.41% |
0.11% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Juan Martin del Potro |
1714 |
100.00% |
77.40% |
22.44% |
13.61% |
7.44% |
3.72% |
1.70% |
| Sam Querrey |
1613 |
100.00% |
64.86% |
28.98% |
6.55% |
2.68% |
0.98% |
0.32% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Nikoloz Basilashvili |
1506 |
49.86% |
17.48% |
5.46% |
0.78% |
0.22% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| Tommy Robredo |
1507 |
50.14% |
17.65% |
5.53% |
0.79% |
0.22% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| Mikhail Youzhny |
1500 |
56.02% |
13.58% |
5.36% |
0.74% |
0.20% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| Mikhail Kukushkin |
1458 |
43.98% |
8.83% |
3.00% |
0.34% |
0.08% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Roberto Bautista Agut |
1698 |
100.00% |
77.59% |
51.67% |
16.19% |
8.49% |
4.06% |
1.77% |
| Tomas Berdych |
1728 |
100.00% |
81.45% |
53.08% |
32.91% |
12.98% |
6.74% |
3.21% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Andrey Rublev |
1446 |
43.84% |
7.22% |
2.05% |
0.55% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| Florian Mayer |
1489 |
56.16% |
11.33% |
3.78% |
1.20% |
0.19% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| Radu Albot |
1403 |
32.88% |
6.19% |
1.13% |
0.26% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Andreas Seppi |
1527 |
67.12% |
21.56% |
6.51% |
2.36% |
0.44% |
0.12% |
0.03% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Gilles Muller |
1657 |
100.00% |
72.26% |
33.45% |
17.69% |
5.50% |
2.33% |
0.89% |
| Paolo Lorenzi |
1513 |
100.00% |
59.15% |
17.45% |
5.10% |
0.90% |
0.22% |
0.05% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Adrian Mannarino |
1478 |
60.90% |
27.39% |
7.05% |
1.79% |
0.27% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| Benjamin Becker |
1401 |
39.10% |
13.46% |
2.50% |
0.46% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| Marcel Granollers |
1498 |
46.12% |
10.05% |
5.16% |
1.42% |
0.23% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| Borna Coric |
1525 |
53.88% |
13.23% |
7.30% |
2.23% |
0.41% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Dominic Thiem |
1720 |
100.00% |
76.72% |
60.55% |
34.04% |
13.09% |
6.65% |
3.10% |
| Rafael Nadal |
1809 |
100.00% |
87.43% |
68.26% |
44.49% |
27.09% |
17.89% |
9.61% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Christian Harrison |
1490 |
56.16% |
7.72% |
2.90% |
0.73% |
0.16% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| Dudi Sela |
1447 |
43.84% |
4.85% |
1.56% |
0.33% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| Adam Pavlasek |
1481 |
50.00% |
15.19% |
2.72% |
0.66% |
0.14% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| Taylor Fritz |
1481 |
50.00% |
15.19% |
2.72% |
0.66% |
0.14% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Philipp Kohlschreiber |
1625 |
100.00% |
69.61% |
21.84% |
8.96% |
3.29% |
1.37% |
0.41% |
| Steve Johnson |
1620 |
100.00% |
66.34% |
24.50% |
8.53% |
3.08% |
1.26% |
0.37% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Michael Mmoh |
1459 |
40.06% |
11.36% |
2.30% |
0.43% |
0.08% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| Nicolas Mahut |
1529 |
59.94% |
22.29% |
5.96% |
1.49% |
0.38% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
| Guido Pella |
1463 |
52.73% |
8.08% |
2.74% |
0.52% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| Tim Smyczek |
1444 |
47.27% |
6.60% |
2.08% |
0.37% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Grigor Dimitrov |
1760 |
100.00% |
85.32% |
62.41% |
32.81% |
17.85% |
10.67% |
5.04% |
| Jack Sock |
1751 |
100.00% |
80.80% |
60.59% |
33.02% |
16.73% |
9.80% |
4.51% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Yoshihito Nishioka |
1529 |
60.90% |
13.27% |
6.10% |
1.68% |
0.40% |
0.12% |
0.02% |
| Jordan Thompson |
1452 |
39.10% |
5.93% |
2.11% |
0.42% |
0.07% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| Jiri Vesely |
1538 |
66.74% |
28.79% |
8.30% |
2.36% |
0.58% |
0.18% |
0.04% |
| Tommy Haas |
1417 |
33.26% |
9.12% |
1.60% |
0.28% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Albert Ramos Vinolas |
1586 |
100.00% |
62.09% |
21.30% |
7.19% |
2.13% |
0.78% |
0.20% |
| Mischa Zverev |
1574 |
100.00% |
56.00% |
15.43% |
5.70% |
1.61% |
0.56% |
0.14% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Jared Donaldson |
1478 |
37.87% |
13.83% |
2.57% |
0.67% |
0.13% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| Kyle Edmund |
1564 |
62.13% |
30.17% |
8.00% |
2.86% |
0.78% |
0.26% |
0.06% |
| Victor Troicki |
1586 |
64.80% |
14.77% |
7.97% |
3.06% |
0.91% |
0.33% |
0.09% |
| Thiago Monteiro |
1480 |
35.20% |
4.86% |
1.90% |
0.50% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Milos Raonic |
1798 |
100.00% |
80.37% |
64.13% |
42.27% |
24.10% |
15.59% |
8.15% |
| Marin Cilic |
1720 |
100.00% |
78.29% |
55.43% |
36.49% |
19.59% |
8.77% |
3.68% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Jeremy Chardy |
1531 |
65.45% |
16.49% |
7.42% |
2.96% |
0.87% |
0.19% |
0.04% |
| Facundo Bagnis |
1420 |
34.55% |
5.22% |
1.57% |
0.41% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| Fabio Fognini |
1582 |
52.73% |
28.18% |
10.59% |
4.96% |
1.76% |
0.48% |
0.12% |
| Ryan Harrison |
1563 |
47.27% |
23.97% |
8.44% |
3.73% |
1.24% |
0.32% |
0.07% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Joao Sousa |
1558 |
100.00% |
47.84% |
16.55% |
7.21% |
2.35% |
0.59% |
0.14% |
| Pablo Cuevas |
1600 |
100.00% |
62.04% |
29.15% |
12.71% |
4.80% |
1.42% |
0.39% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Martin Klizan |
1520 |
51.58% |
19.96% |
7.20% |
2.40% |
0.68% |
0.14% |
0.03% |
| Benoit Paire |
1509 |
48.42% |
18.01% |
6.24% |
2.00% |
0.54% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
| Donald Young |
1593 |
61.72% |
25.58% |
13.71% |
5.85% |
2.16% |
0.62% |
0.17% |
| Dustin Brown |
1510 |
38.28% |
11.68% |
4.89% |
1.57% |
0.43% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Lucas Pouille |
1653 |
100.00% |
62.74% |
38.82% |
19.71% |
8.80% |
3.16% |
1.06% |
| Pablo Carreno Busta |
1676 |
100.00% |
68.72% |
42.86% |
19.62% |
10.76% |
4.18% |
1.52% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Juan Monaco |
1558 |
56.30% |
18.94% |
8.78% |
2.73% |
1.06% |
0.26% |
0.06% |
| Federico Delbonis |
1514 |
43.70% |
12.34% |
4.99% |
1.31% |
0.43% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| Aljaz Bedene |
1483 |
57.01% |
17.18% |
5.17% |
1.20% |
0.35% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| Jan-Lennard Struff |
1434 |
42.99% |
10.56% |
2.60% |
0.49% |
0.12% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Gilles Simon |
1629 |
100.00% |
72.26% |
35.59% |
14.12% |
6.83% |
2.25% |
0.69% |
| Fernando Verdasco |
1612 |
100.00% |
57.62% |
19.19% |
9.23% |
4.25% |
1.31% |
0.38% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Ernesto Escobedo |
1482 |
34.16% |
10.97% |
2.19% |
0.68% |
0.20% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| Daniel Evans |
1596 |
65.84% |
31.41% |
9.87% |
4.53% |
1.99% |
0.58% |
0.16% |
| Kevin Anderson |
1575 |
59.52% |
13.62% |
6.46% |
2.78% |
1.14% |
0.30% |
0.08% |
| Dusan Lajovic |
1508 |
40.48% |
6.80% |
2.59% |
0.89% |
0.29% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Kei Nishikori |
1786 |
100.00% |
79.58% |
59.70% |
42.43% |
29.32% |
15.79% |
8.00% |
