I previewed this new feature to my Twitter followers a few weeks ago, but now I'm releasing it to the wild, my new ELO based tournament simulator, with predictions as to how likely each player is to get to each round. So, here we go!
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| Stock tournament image, ©printyourbrackets.com |
But before the full table, some highlights I want to pick out.
- As you would expect, Angelique Kerber is the most likely to win the tournament, with a 12.2% chance of winning the whole thing, with Karolina Pliskova next at 9.81%. The 3rd most likely is Johanna Konta with 9.15% and Elina Svitolina 4th with 8.7%
- Kiki Bertens has a really easy draw compared to other players with a similar ELO rating. I have her as the 48th most likely winner, while she is only the 65th highest ranked player here.
- On the other hand, Mona Barthel and Lucie Safarova have tough draws. They are the 74th and 38th most likely winners, but they are the 64th and 28th highest ranked players competing.
- The toughest 1st round draw went to Peng Shuai, as she's the 78th most likely player to progress to round 2, but she's ranked 36th of the competitors.
- Madison Brengle got the easiest 1st round draw, as she's the 42nd most likely player to advance to round 2, while she's the 81st highest ranked competitor here.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates: Follow
@tennis_elo on Twitter.
| Name |
ELO |
R1 % |
R2 % |
R3 % |
R4 % |
R5 % |
R6 % |
R7 % |
| Karolina Pliskova |
1758 |
100.00% |
72.97% |
59.60% |
44.69% |
27.69% |
16.78% |
9.81% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Monica Puig |
1623 |
69.12% |
21.77% |
14.65% |
8.54% |
3.75% |
1.58% |
0.63% |
| Danielle Collins |
1483 |
30.88% |
5.26% |
2.53% |
0.98% |
0.26% |
0.07% |
0.02% |
| Louisa Chirico |
1474 |
54.73% |
23.61% |
4.95% |
1.86% |
0.48% |
0.12% |
0.03% |
| Francesca Schiavone |
1441 |
45.27% |
17.45% |
3.16% |
1.06% |
0.24% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Irina-Camelia Begu |
1522 |
100.00% |
58.94% |
15.12% |
6.69% |
2.08% |
0.61% |
0.17% |
| Kiki Bertens |
1499 |
100.00% |
48.54% |
17.80% |
5.10% |
1.45% |
0.39% |
0.10% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Belinda Bencic |
1519 |
53.02% |
28.03% |
11.03% |
3.40% |
1.04% |
0.30% |
0.08% |
| Tsvetana Pironkova |
1498 |
46.98% |
23.42% |
8.56% |
2.44% |
0.69% |
0.19% |
0.05% |
| Monica Niculescu |
1598 |
65.06% |
31.03% |
19.60% |
7.88% |
3.19% |
1.24% |
0.46% |
| Sorana Cirstea |
1490 |
34.94% |
11.49% |
5.51% |
1.52% |
0.42% |
0.11% |
0.03% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Timea Bacsinszky |
1614 |
100.00% |
57.48% |
37.51% |
15.83% |
6.75% |
2.76% |
1.07% |
| Elina Svitolina |
1753 |
100.00% |
81.48% |
56.70% |
39.90% |
25.12% |
15.06% |
8.70% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Kateryna Bondarenko |
1482 |
46.41% |
8.06% |
2.68% |
0.93% |
0.27% |
0.07% |
0.02% |
| Wang Qiang |
1507 |
53.59% |
10.47% |
3.82% |
1.44% |
0.45% |
0.13% |
0.03% |
| Yanina Wickmayer |
1507 |
45.12% |
14.04% |
3.58% |
1.35% |
0.43% |
0.12% |
0.03% |
| Laura Siegemund |
1541 |
54.88% |
19.46% |
5.65% |
2.39% |
0.85% |
0.27% |
0.08% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Daria Gavrilova |
1645 |
100.00% |
66.49% |
27.57% |
15.60% |
7.63% |
3.45% |
1.48% |
| Mirjana Lucic-Baroni |
1561 |
100.00% |
61.58% |
25.19% |
8.44% |
3.21% |
1.10% |
0.35% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Kayla Day |
1488 |
52.73% |
20.91% |
6.59% |
1.67% |
0.49% |
0.13% |
0.03% |
| Kurumi Nara |
1469 |
47.27% |
17.52% |
5.12% |
1.20% |
0.33% |
0.08% |
0.02% |
| Catherine Bellis |
1565 |
57.15% |
20.49% |
11.27% |
3.83% |
1.48% |
0.51% |
0.17% |
| Kirsten Flipkens |
1515 |
42.85% |
12.66% |
6.07% |
1.71% |
0.56% |
0.16% |
0.04% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Garbine Muguruza |
1666 |
100.00% |
66.85% |
45.76% |
21.55% |
11.14% |
5.35% |
2.45% |
| Dominika Cibulkova |
1710 |
100.00% |
77.66% |
53.70% |
33.98% |
18.33% |
9.79% |
5.08% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Jelena Ostapenko |
1514 |
57.15% |
13.97% |
5.98% |
2.18% |
0.63% |
0.18% |
0.05% |
| Danka Kovinic |
1464 |
42.85% |
8.37% |
3.02% |
0.92% |
0.22% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| Kristyna Pliskova |
1502 |
57.71% |
20.47% |
6.02% |
2.11% |
0.58% |
0.16% |
0.04% |
| Bethanie Mattek-Sands |
1448 |
42.29% |
12.14% |
2.88% |
0.82% |
0.18% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Daria Kasatkina |
1606 |
100.00% |
67.39% |
28.40% |
13.93% |
5.58% |
2.20% |
0.83% |
| Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova |
1626 |
100.00% |
67.99% |
35.06% |
16.74% |
7.14% |
3.01% |
1.22% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Anett Kontaveit |
1478 |
45.55% |
13.62% |
4.36% |
1.26% |
0.32% |
0.08% |
0.02% |
| Misaki Doi |
1509 |
54.45% |
18.39% |
6.59% |
2.15% |
0.61% |
0.17% |
0.04% |
| Sara Errani |
1526 |
58.83% |
18.75% |
7.85% |
2.72% |
0.82% |
0.24% |
0.07% |
| Mandy Minella |
1464 |
41.17% |
10.15% |
3.43% |
0.94% |
0.22% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Barbora Strycova |
1658 |
100.00% |
71.10% |
42.72% |
22.26% |
10.44% |
4.84% |
2.17% |
| Johanna Konta |
1752 |
100.00% |
83.39% |
62.89% |
41.53% |
26.88% |
15.87% |
9.15% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Nicole Gibbs |
1444 |
43.28% |
6.28% |
2.17% |
0.59% |
0.15% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| Heather Watson |
1491 |
56.72% |
10.33% |
4.22% |
1.36% |
0.41% |
0.11% |
0.03% |
| Evgeniya Rodina |
1466 |
35.73% |
12.72% |
2.75% |
0.81% |
0.22% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| Christina McHale |
1568 |
64.27% |
32.04% |
10.25% |
4.29% |
1.70% |
0.59% |
0.20% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Caroline Garcia |
1569 |
100.00% |
55.24% |
17.73% |
7.45% |
2.97% |
1.03% |
0.34% |
| Roberta Vinci |
1556 |
100.00% |
65.23% |
23.27% |
8.03% |
3.06% |
1.02% |
0.32% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Madison Brengle |
1476 |
61.18% |
23.67% |
6.23% |
1.60% |
0.45% |
0.11% |
0.03% |
| Tatjana Maria |
1397 |
38.82% |
11.10% |
2.08% |
0.38% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| Johanna Larsson |
1536 |
50.14% |
13.53% |
7.07% |
2.27% |
0.81% |
0.25% |
0.07% |
| Camila Giorgi |
1535 |
49.86% |
13.39% |
6.98% |
2.24% |
0.79% |
0.24% |
0.07% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Svetlana Kuznetsova |
1709 |
100.00% |
73.08% |
54.37% |
29.47% |
17.40% |
9.27% |
4.80% |
| Madison Keys |
1729 |
100.00% |
80.17% |
58.14% |
34.21% |
21.21% |
12.04% |
6.51% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Mariana Duque Marino |
1475 |
46.98% |
8.84% |
3.37% |
0.89% |
0.26% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| Patricia Maria Tig |
1496 |
53.02% |
10.99% |
4.51% |
1.29% |
0.40% |
0.11% |
0.03% |
| Naomi Osaka |
1584 |
61.99% |
32.96% |
12.16% |
4.79% |
2.03% |
0.76% |
0.26% |
| Risa Ozaki |
1499 |
38.01% |
15.59% |
4.23% |
1.23% |
0.39% |
0.11% |
0.03% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Zhang Shuai |
1562 |
100.00% |
51.45% |
17.60% |
6.44% |
2.54% |
0.88% |
0.28% |
| Carla Suarez Navarro |
1619 |
100.00% |
62.84% |
25.89% |
11.72% |
5.53% |
2.32% |
0.91% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Katerina Siniakova |
1548 |
56.86% |
22.70% |
7.38% |
2.66% |
1.00% |
0.33% |
0.10% |
| Mona Barthel |
1500 |
43.14% |
14.46% |
3.93% |
1.19% |
0.38% |
0.10% |
0.03% |
| Taylor Townsend |
1458 |
46.84% |
8.13% |
2.66% |
0.68% |
0.18% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| Magda Linette |
1480 |
53.16% |
10.24% |
3.63% |
1.02% |
0.30% |
0.08% |
0.02% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Caroline Wozniacki |
1729 |
100.00% |
81.63% |
56.52% |
33.87% |
21.00% |
11.92% |
6.45% |
| Samantha Stosur |
1564 |
100.00% |
53.98% |
26.22% |
9.45% |
3.27% |
1.14% |
0.37% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Julia Gorges |
1570 |
63.07% |
32.08% |
15.86% |
5.84% |
2.07% |
0.74% |
0.24% |
| Ajla Tomljanovic |
1477 |
36.93% |
13.93% |
5.08% |
1.31% |
0.33% |
0.08% |
0.02% |
| Viktorija Golubic |
1545 |
40.61% |
19.49% |
9.50% |
3.20% |
1.03% |
0.34% |
0.10% |
| Lauren Davis |
1611 |
59.39% |
34.10% |
19.81% |
8.35% |
3.40% |
1.39% |
0.53% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Anastasija Sevastova |
1559 |
100.00% |
46.41% |
23.54% |
8.33% |
2.84% |
0.97% |
0.31% |
| Kristina Mladenovic |
1632 |
100.00% |
64.38% |
26.89% |
15.92% |
6.92% |
3.02% |
1.23% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Annika Beck |
1475 |
38.01% |
10.96% |
2.56% |
0.95% |
0.23% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| Eugenie Bouchard |
1560 |
61.99% |
24.66% |
8.05% |
3.94% |
1.35% |
0.46% |
0.15% |
| Alison Riske |
1588 |
70.46% |
21.15% |
10.29% |
5.46% |
2.06% |
0.78% |
0.27% |
| Donna Vekic |
1437 |
29.54% |
4.50% |
1.30% |
0.42% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Simona Halep |
1735 |
100.00% |
74.34% |
50.91% |
36.83% |
21.18% |
12.19% |
6.70% |
| Agnieszka Radwanska |
1728 |
100.00% |
70.65% |
46.68% |
30.38% |
17.89% |
10.16% |
5.48% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Sara Sorribes Tormo |
1464 |
29.66% |
5.32% |
1.60% |
0.47% |
0.13% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| Ekaterina Makarova |
1614 |
70.34% |
24.03% |
12.09% |
5.99% |
2.65% |
1.09% |
0.42% |
| Peng Shuai |
1562 |
43.42% |
17.57% |
5.84% |
2.47% |
0.93% |
0.32% |
0.10% |
| Lesia Tsurenko |
1608 |
56.58% |
26.58% |
10.39% |
5.06% |
2.20% |
0.89% |
0.33% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Ana Konjuh |
1629 |
100.00% |
55.84% |
23.39% |
12.08% |
5.57% |
2.41% |
0.97% |
| Coco Vandeweghe |
1607 |
100.00% |
57.56% |
27.09% |
11.38% |
4.93% |
1.98% |
0.74% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Lara Arruabarrena |
1505 |
38.82% |
13.87% |
4.66% |
1.35% |
0.42% |
0.12% |
0.03% |
| Lucie Safarova |
1584 |
61.18% |
28.57% |
12.54% |
4.88% |
1.97% |
0.73% |
0.25% |
| Jelena Jankovic |
1558 |
64.01% |
22.11% |
10.16% |
3.61% |
1.34% |
0.46% |
0.14% |
| Irina Falconi |
1458 |
35.99% |
8.24% |
2.67% |
0.64% |
0.17% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Venus Williams |
1669 |
100.00% |
69.65% |
42.87% |
21.68% |
11.12% |
5.41% |
2.48% |
| Elena Vesnina |
1584 |
100.00% |
62.80% |
35.44% |
13.06% |
5.28% |
1.97% |
0.68% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Jennifer Brady |
1495 |
50.58% |
18.95% |
8.29% |
2.23% |
0.65% |
0.17% |
0.04% |
| Shelby Rogers |
1491 |
49.42% |
18.25% |
7.88% |
2.09% |
0.60% |
0.16% |
0.04% |
| Yaroslava Shvedova |
1520 |
53.02% |
23.47% |
10.73% |
3.17% |
1.02% |
0.30% |
0.08% |
| Varvara Lepchenko |
1499 |
46.98% |
19.41% |
8.30% |
2.26% |
0.67% |
0.18% |
0.05% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Timea Babos |
1560 |
100.00% |
57.12% |
29.35% |
9.98% |
3.71% |
1.27% |
0.40% |
| Yulia Putintseva |
1562 |
100.00% |
59.79% |
17.61% |
9.15% |
3.43% |
1.18% |
0.38% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Pauline Parmentier |
1479 |
46.27% |
17.71% |
3.75% |
1.51% |
0.41% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
| Oceane Dodin |
1505 |
53.73% |
22.50% |
5.31% |
2.33% |
0.71% |
0.20% |
0.05% |
| Vania King |
1501 |
44.55% |
7.81% |
3.53% |
1.53% |
0.46% |
0.12% |
0.03% |
| Andrea Petkovic |
1539 |
55.45% |
11.60% |
5.87% |
2.86% |
0.99% |
0.31% |
0.09% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Angelique Kerber |
1770 |
100.00% |
80.59% |
63.92% |
49.84% |
32.77% |
20.44% |
12.20% |
