Wednesday, 8 March 2017

2017 Indian Wells Predictions - Women's

I previewed this new feature to my Twitter followers a few weeks ago, but now I'm releasing it to the wild, my new ELO based tournament simulator, with predictions as to how likely each player is to get to each round. So, here we go!

Stock tournament image, ©printyourbrackets.com


But before the full table, some highlights I want to pick out.
  • As you would expect, Angelique Kerber is the most likely to win the tournament, with a 12.2% chance of winning the whole thing, with Karolina Pliskova next at 9.81%. The 3rd most likely is Johanna Konta with 9.15% and Elina Svitolina 4th with 8.7%
  • Kiki Bertens has a really easy draw compared to other players with a similar ELO rating. I have her as the 48th most likely winner, while she is only the 65th highest ranked player here.
  • On the other hand, Mona Barthel and Lucie Safarova have tough draws. They are the 74th and 38th most likely winners, but they are the 64th and 28th highest ranked players competing.
  • The toughest 1st round draw went to Peng Shuai, as she's the 78th most likely player to progress to round 2, but she's ranked 36th of the competitors. 
  • Madison Brengle got the easiest 1st round draw, as she's the 42nd most likely player to advance to round 2, while she's the 81st highest ranked competitor here.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates: Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.

Name ELO R1 % R2 % R3 % R4 % R5 % R6 % R7 %
Karolina Pliskova 1758 100.00% 72.97% 59.60% 44.69% 27.69% 16.78% 9.81%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Monica Puig 1623 69.12% 21.77% 14.65% 8.54% 3.75% 1.58% 0.63%
Danielle Collins 1483 30.88% 5.26% 2.53% 0.98% 0.26% 0.07% 0.02%
Louisa Chirico 1474 54.73% 23.61% 4.95% 1.86% 0.48% 0.12% 0.03%
Francesca Schiavone 1441 45.27% 17.45% 3.16% 1.06% 0.24% 0.05% 0.01%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Irina-Camelia Begu 1522 100.00% 58.94% 15.12% 6.69% 2.08% 0.61% 0.17%
Kiki Bertens 1499 100.00% 48.54% 17.80% 5.10% 1.45% 0.39% 0.10%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Belinda Bencic 1519 53.02% 28.03% 11.03% 3.40% 1.04% 0.30% 0.08%
Tsvetana Pironkova 1498 46.98% 23.42% 8.56% 2.44% 0.69% 0.19% 0.05%
Monica Niculescu 1598 65.06% 31.03% 19.60% 7.88% 3.19% 1.24% 0.46%
Sorana Cirstea 1490 34.94% 11.49% 5.51% 1.52% 0.42% 0.11% 0.03%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Timea Bacsinszky 1614 100.00% 57.48% 37.51% 15.83% 6.75% 2.76% 1.07%
Elina Svitolina 1753 100.00% 81.48% 56.70% 39.90% 25.12% 15.06% 8.70%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Kateryna Bondarenko 1482 46.41% 8.06% 2.68% 0.93% 0.27% 0.07% 0.02%
Wang Qiang 1507 53.59% 10.47% 3.82% 1.44% 0.45% 0.13% 0.03%
Yanina Wickmayer 1507 45.12% 14.04% 3.58% 1.35% 0.43% 0.12% 0.03%
Laura Siegemund 1541 54.88% 19.46% 5.65% 2.39% 0.85% 0.27% 0.08%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Daria Gavrilova 1645 100.00% 66.49% 27.57% 15.60% 7.63% 3.45% 1.48%
Mirjana Lucic-Baroni 1561 100.00% 61.58% 25.19% 8.44% 3.21% 1.10% 0.35%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Kayla Day 1488 52.73% 20.91% 6.59% 1.67% 0.49% 0.13% 0.03%
Kurumi Nara 1469 47.27% 17.52% 5.12% 1.20% 0.33% 0.08% 0.02%
Catherine Bellis 1565 57.15% 20.49% 11.27% 3.83% 1.48% 0.51% 0.17%
Kirsten Flipkens 1515 42.85% 12.66% 6.07% 1.71% 0.56% 0.16% 0.04%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Garbine Muguruza 1666 100.00% 66.85% 45.76% 21.55% 11.14% 5.35% 2.45%
Dominika Cibulkova 1710 100.00% 77.66% 53.70% 33.98% 18.33% 9.79% 5.08%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Jelena Ostapenko 1514 57.15% 13.97% 5.98% 2.18% 0.63% 0.18% 0.05%
Danka Kovinic 1464 42.85% 8.37% 3.02% 0.92% 0.22% 0.05% 0.01%
Kristyna Pliskova 1502 57.71% 20.47% 6.02% 2.11% 0.58% 0.16% 0.04%
Bethanie Mattek-Sands 1448 42.29% 12.14% 2.88% 0.82% 0.18% 0.04% 0.01%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Daria Kasatkina 1606 100.00% 67.39% 28.40% 13.93% 5.58% 2.20% 0.83%
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova 1626 100.00% 67.99% 35.06% 16.74% 7.14% 3.01% 1.22%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Anett Kontaveit 1478 45.55% 13.62% 4.36% 1.26% 0.32% 0.08% 0.02%
Misaki Doi 1509 54.45% 18.39% 6.59% 2.15% 0.61% 0.17% 0.04%
Sara Errani 1526 58.83% 18.75% 7.85% 2.72% 0.82% 0.24% 0.07%
Mandy Minella 1464 41.17% 10.15% 3.43% 0.94% 0.22% 0.05% 0.01%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Barbora Strycova 1658 100.00% 71.10% 42.72% 22.26% 10.44% 4.84% 2.17%
Johanna Konta 1752 100.00% 83.39% 62.89% 41.53% 26.88% 15.87% 9.15%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Nicole Gibbs 1444 43.28% 6.28% 2.17% 0.59% 0.15% 0.03% 0.01%
Heather Watson 1491 56.72% 10.33% 4.22% 1.36% 0.41% 0.11% 0.03%
Evgeniya Rodina 1466 35.73% 12.72% 2.75% 0.81% 0.22% 0.05% 0.01%
Christina McHale 1568 64.27% 32.04% 10.25% 4.29% 1.70% 0.59% 0.20%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Caroline Garcia 1569 100.00% 55.24% 17.73% 7.45% 2.97% 1.03% 0.34%
Roberta Vinci 1556 100.00% 65.23% 23.27% 8.03% 3.06% 1.02% 0.32%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Madison Brengle 1476 61.18% 23.67% 6.23% 1.60% 0.45% 0.11% 0.03%
Tatjana Maria 1397 38.82% 11.10% 2.08% 0.38% 0.08% 0.01% 0.00%
Johanna Larsson 1536 50.14% 13.53% 7.07% 2.27% 0.81% 0.25% 0.07%
Camila Giorgi 1535 49.86% 13.39% 6.98% 2.24% 0.79% 0.24% 0.07%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Svetlana Kuznetsova 1709 100.00% 73.08% 54.37% 29.47% 17.40% 9.27% 4.80%
Madison Keys 1729 100.00% 80.17% 58.14% 34.21% 21.21% 12.04% 6.51%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Mariana Duque Marino 1475 46.98% 8.84% 3.37% 0.89% 0.26% 0.06% 0.01%
Patricia Maria Tig 1496 53.02% 10.99% 4.51% 1.29% 0.40% 0.11% 0.03%
Naomi Osaka 1584 61.99% 32.96% 12.16% 4.79% 2.03% 0.76% 0.26%
Risa Ozaki 1499 38.01% 15.59% 4.23% 1.23% 0.39% 0.11% 0.03%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Zhang Shuai 1562 100.00% 51.45% 17.60% 6.44% 2.54% 0.88% 0.28%
Carla Suarez Navarro 1619 100.00% 62.84% 25.89% 11.72% 5.53% 2.32% 0.91%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Katerina Siniakova 1548 56.86% 22.70% 7.38% 2.66% 1.00% 0.33% 0.10%
Mona Barthel 1500 43.14% 14.46% 3.93% 1.19% 0.38% 0.10% 0.03%
Taylor Townsend 1458 46.84% 8.13% 2.66% 0.68% 0.18% 0.04% 0.01%
Magda Linette 1480 53.16% 10.24% 3.63% 1.02% 0.30% 0.08% 0.02%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Caroline Wozniacki 1729 100.00% 81.63% 56.52% 33.87% 21.00% 11.92% 6.45%
Samantha Stosur 1564 100.00% 53.98% 26.22% 9.45% 3.27% 1.14% 0.37%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Julia Gorges 1570 63.07% 32.08% 15.86% 5.84% 2.07% 0.74% 0.24%
Ajla Tomljanovic 1477 36.93% 13.93% 5.08% 1.31% 0.33% 0.08% 0.02%
Viktorija Golubic 1545 40.61% 19.49% 9.50% 3.20% 1.03% 0.34% 0.10%
Lauren Davis 1611 59.39% 34.10% 19.81% 8.35% 3.40% 1.39% 0.53%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Anastasija Sevastova 1559 100.00% 46.41% 23.54% 8.33% 2.84% 0.97% 0.31%
Kristina Mladenovic 1632 100.00% 64.38% 26.89% 15.92% 6.92% 3.02% 1.23%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Annika Beck 1475 38.01% 10.96% 2.56% 0.95% 0.23% 0.06% 0.01%
Eugenie Bouchard 1560 61.99% 24.66% 8.05% 3.94% 1.35% 0.46% 0.15%
Alison Riske 1588 70.46% 21.15% 10.29% 5.46% 2.06% 0.78% 0.27%
Donna Vekic 1437 29.54% 4.50% 1.30% 0.42% 0.09% 0.02% 0.00%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Simona Halep 1735 100.00% 74.34% 50.91% 36.83% 21.18% 12.19% 6.70%
Agnieszka Radwanska 1728 100.00% 70.65% 46.68% 30.38% 17.89% 10.16% 5.48%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Sara Sorribes Tormo 1464 29.66% 5.32% 1.60% 0.47% 0.13% 0.03% 0.01%
Ekaterina Makarova 1614 70.34% 24.03% 12.09% 5.99% 2.65% 1.09% 0.42%
Peng Shuai 1562 43.42% 17.57% 5.84% 2.47% 0.93% 0.32% 0.10%
Lesia Tsurenko 1608 56.58% 26.58% 10.39% 5.06% 2.20% 0.89% 0.33%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Ana Konjuh 1629 100.00% 55.84% 23.39% 12.08% 5.57% 2.41% 0.97%
Coco Vandeweghe 1607 100.00% 57.56% 27.09% 11.38% 4.93% 1.98% 0.74%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Lara Arruabarrena 1505 38.82% 13.87% 4.66% 1.35% 0.42% 0.12% 0.03%
Lucie Safarova 1584 61.18% 28.57% 12.54% 4.88% 1.97% 0.73% 0.25%
Jelena Jankovic 1558 64.01% 22.11% 10.16% 3.61% 1.34% 0.46% 0.14%
Irina Falconi 1458 35.99% 8.24% 2.67% 0.64% 0.17% 0.04% 0.01%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Venus Williams 1669 100.00% 69.65% 42.87% 21.68% 11.12% 5.41% 2.48%
Elena Vesnina 1584 100.00% 62.80% 35.44% 13.06% 5.28% 1.97% 0.68%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Jennifer Brady 1495 50.58% 18.95% 8.29% 2.23% 0.65% 0.17% 0.04%
Shelby Rogers 1491 49.42% 18.25% 7.88% 2.09% 0.60% 0.16% 0.04%
Yaroslava Shvedova 1520 53.02% 23.47% 10.73% 3.17% 1.02% 0.30% 0.08%
Varvara Lepchenko 1499 46.98% 19.41% 8.30% 2.26% 0.67% 0.18% 0.05%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Timea Babos 1560 100.00% 57.12% 29.35% 9.98% 3.71% 1.27% 0.40%
Yulia Putintseva 1562 100.00% 59.79% 17.61% 9.15% 3.43% 1.18% 0.38%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Pauline Parmentier 1479 46.27% 17.71% 3.75% 1.51% 0.41% 0.10% 0.02%
Oceane Dodin 1505 53.73% 22.50% 5.31% 2.33% 0.71% 0.20% 0.05%
Vania King 1501 44.55% 7.81% 3.53% 1.53% 0.46% 0.12% 0.03%
Andrea Petkovic 1539 55.45% 11.60% 5.87% 2.86% 0.99% 0.31% 0.09%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Angelique Kerber 1770 100.00% 80.59% 63.92% 49.84% 32.77% 20.44% 12.20%

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