My tournament simulator returns for the Miami tournament, with a look at the Women's draw.
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| Stock tournament image, ©printyourbrackets.com |
(This post has been updated with Magda Linette replacing Catherine Bellis)
- Karolina Pliskova is the most likely to win the tournament, with a 11.36% chance of winning the whole thing, with Angelique Kerber next at 10.39%. The 3rd most likely is Johanna Konta with 7.58% and Elina Svitolina 4th with 7.45%
- Once again, Kiki Bertens has a really easy draw compared to other players with a similar ELO rating. I have her as the 46th most likely winner, while she is only the 62nd highest ranked player here.
- On the other hand, Varvara Lepchenko has the toughest draw. She is the 63rd highest ranked player here, but is the 78th most likely winner of the tournament.
- The toughest 1st round draw went to Johanna Larsson, as she's the 83rd most likely player to progress to round 2, but she's ranked 47th of the competitors. (Alison Riske had the toughest R1 until the update, she's now the 2nd toughest)
- Carina Witthoft and Kateryna Bondarenko got the easiest 1st round draws, as they're the 45th and 59th most likely players to advance to round 2, while they're the 71st and 85th highest ranked competitors here.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates: Follow
@tennis_elo on Twitter.
| Name |
ELO |
R1 % |
R2 % |
R3 % |
R4 % |
R5 % |
R6 % |
R7 % |
| Angelique Kerber |
1762 |
100.00% |
79.27% |
60.51% |
46.02% |
28.89% |
17.75% |
10.39% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Duan Yingying |
1528 |
49.71% |
10.26% |
4.75% |
2.18% |
0.69% |
0.21% |
0.06% |
| Laura Siegemund |
1530 |
50.29% |
10.47% |
4.88% |
2.25% |
0.72% |
0.22% |
0.06% |
| Shelby Rogers |
1493 |
56.16% |
20.21% |
4.69% |
1.92% |
0.53% |
0.14% |
0.03% |
| Marina Erakovic |
1450 |
43.84% |
13.38% |
2.59% |
0.91% |
0.21% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Daria Kasatkina |
1593 |
100.00% |
66.41% |
22.58% |
12.41% |
4.95% |
1.92% |
0.68% |
| Carla Suarez Navarro |
1607 |
100.00% |
54.45% |
35.79% |
14.37% |
6.00% |
2.43% |
0.91% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Julia Gorges |
1578 |
50.58% |
23.18% |
14.35% |
5.24% |
1.99% |
0.73% |
0.25% |
| Alison Riske |
1574 |
49.42% |
22.37% |
13.73% |
4.95% |
1.85% |
0.67% |
0.22% |
| Risa Ozaki |
1491 |
52.44% |
25.32% |
9.06% |
2.41% |
0.66% |
0.18% |
0.04% |
| Louisa Chirico |
1474 |
47.56% |
21.80% |
7.31% |
1.82% |
0.47% |
0.12% |
0.03% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Kiki Bertens |
1503 |
100.00% |
52.89% |
19.76% |
5.52% |
1.59% |
0.44% |
0.11% |
| Venus Williams |
1680 |
100.00% |
66.57% |
39.03% |
20.87% |
11.10% |
5.60% |
2.64% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Beatriz Haddad Maia |
1478 |
33.51% |
7.98% |
2.54% |
0.72% |
0.20% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| Lesia Tsurenko |
1597 |
66.49% |
25.45% |
12.04% |
5.12% |
2.17% |
0.85% |
0.31% |
| Heather Watson |
1496 |
51.58% |
14.33% |
4.36% |
1.32% |
0.40% |
0.11% |
0.03% |
| Patricia Maria Tig |
1485 |
48.42% |
12.84% |
3.75% |
1.09% |
0.31% |
0.08% |
0.02% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Kristina Mladenovic |
1662 |
100.00% |
72.83% |
38.28% |
19.56% |
9.94% |
4.77% |
2.13% |
| Roberta Vinci |
1558 |
100.00% |
61.23% |
20.32% |
7.77% |
2.90% |
1.00% |
0.31% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Amanda Anisimova |
1500 |
57.29% |
23.91% |
6.39% |
1.98% |
0.60% |
0.17% |
0.04% |
| Taylor Townsend |
1449 |
42.71% |
14.87% |
3.23% |
0.81% |
0.20% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| Mandy Minella |
1456 |
41.17% |
6.95% |
2.77% |
0.72% |
0.18% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| Kristyna Pliskova |
1518 |
58.83% |
13.23% |
6.42% |
2.13% |
0.69% |
0.20% |
0.05% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Svetlana Kuznetsova |
1733 |
100.00% |
79.83% |
60.86% |
37.91% |
22.77% |
13.12% |
7.16% |
| Simona Halep |
1725 |
100.00% |
71.52% |
51.29% |
36.59% |
20.52% |
11.41% |
6.10% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Kristina Kucova |
1511 |
38.14% |
8.61% |
3.73% |
1.58% |
0.45% |
0.13% |
0.03% |
| Naomi Osaka |
1595 |
61.86% |
19.87% |
10.92% |
5.92% |
2.30% |
0.88% |
0.31% |
| Kurumi Nara |
1460 |
46.69% |
14.42% |
3.27% |
1.16% |
0.27% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| Anett Kontaveit |
1483 |
53.31% |
18.00% |
4.50% |
1.73% |
0.45% |
0.11% |
0.03% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Ekaterina Makarova |
1600 |
100.00% |
67.58% |
26.28% |
14.43% |
5.69% |
2.21% |
0.80% |
| Caroline Garcia |
1585 |
100.00% |
55.02% |
30.21% |
12.40% |
4.65% |
1.72% |
0.59% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Peng Shuai |
1591 |
68.63% |
34.91% |
19.46% |
8.15% |
3.12% |
1.17% |
0.41% |
| Danka Kovinic |
1455 |
31.37% |
10.08% |
3.68% |
0.94% |
0.22% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| Eugenie Bouchard |
1548 |
50.14% |
24.64% |
11.40% |
4.14% |
1.36% |
0.44% |
0.13% |
| Ashleigh Barty |
1547 |
49.86% |
24.43% |
11.26% |
4.07% |
1.34% |
0.43% |
0.13% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Samantha Stosur |
1554 |
100.00% |
50.94% |
23.99% |
8.89% |
3.00% |
0.99% |
0.30% |
| Johanna Konta |
1741 |
100.00% |
75.82% |
58.04% |
36.23% |
23.56% |
13.61% |
7.58% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Alize Cornet |
1574 |
63.21% |
17.48% |
9.74% |
3.96% |
1.69% |
0.60% |
0.20% |
| Aliaksandra Sasnovich |
1480 |
36.79% |
6.70% |
2.84% |
0.83% |
0.26% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| Oceane Dodin |
1494 |
49.28% |
20.02% |
5.00% |
1.55% |
0.50% |
0.13% |
0.03% |
| Pauline Parmentier |
1499 |
50.72% |
20.95% |
5.34% |
1.69% |
0.56% |
0.15% |
0.04% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Timea Babos |
1560 |
100.00% |
59.03% |
19.05% |
7.41% |
3.03% |
1.02% |
0.32% |
| Irina-Camelia Begu |
1527 |
100.00% |
52.47% |
15.77% |
5.23% |
1.91% |
0.57% |
0.16% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Lara Arruabarrena |
1497 |
46.55% |
21.27% |
5.69% |
1.69% |
0.55% |
0.15% |
0.04% |
| Natalia Vikhlyantseva |
1521 |
53.45% |
26.26% |
7.72% |
2.51% |
0.90% |
0.26% |
0.07% |
| Viktorija Golubic |
1537 |
56.86% |
14.15% |
7.44% |
2.56% |
0.97% |
0.30% |
0.09% |
| Tsvetana Pironkova |
1489 |
43.14% |
8.66% |
3.96% |
1.14% |
0.36% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Madison Keys |
1729 |
100.00% |
77.19% |
59.43% |
35.20% |
22.36% |
12.56% |
6.78% |
| Garbine Muguruza |
1682 |
100.00% |
70.89% |
49.24% |
25.84% |
14.23% |
6.68% |
3.19% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Christina McHale |
1555 |
60.49% |
19.66% |
10.28% |
3.66% |
1.38% |
0.42% |
0.13% |
| Annika Beck |
1481 |
39.51% |
9.45% |
3.95% |
1.06% |
0.30% |
0.07% |
0.02% |
| Sara Errani |
1527 |
51.44% |
23.80% |
8.33% |
2.68% |
0.91% |
0.25% |
0.07% |
| Belinda Bencic |
1517 |
48.56% |
21.77% |
7.35% |
2.27% |
0.75% |
0.20% |
0.05% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Zhang Shuai |
1553 |
100.00% |
54.43% |
20.86% |
7.36% |
2.75% |
0.84% |
0.26% |
| Anastasija Sevastova |
1551 |
100.00% |
45.92% |
14.17% |
5.96% |
2.21% |
0.67% |
0.21% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Sorana Cirstea |
1483 |
30.88% |
12.45% |
2.92% |
0.97% |
0.28% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| Monica Puig |
1623 |
69.12% |
41.62% |
16.62% |
8.63% |
4.04% |
1.58% |
0.63% |
| Lauren Davis |
1626 |
67.25% |
23.23% |
13.36% |
6.99% |
3.30% |
1.30% |
0.52% |
| Varvara Lepchenko |
1501 |
32.75% |
6.70% |
2.68% |
0.95% |
0.29% |
0.07% |
0.02% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Caroline Wozniacki |
1737 |
100.00% |
70.07% |
50.25% |
33.64% |
21.04% |
11.46% |
6.35% |
| Elena Vesnina |
1652 |
100.00% |
73.15% |
40.40% |
20.66% |
10.20% |
4.38% |
1.91% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Magda Linette |
1485 |
52.16% |
14.43% |
4.67% |
1.38% |
0.39% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| Ajla Tomljanovic |
1470 |
47.84% |
12.42% |
3.79% |
1.06% |
0.28% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| Yanina Wickmayer |
1512 |
38.41% |
12.24% |
4.57% |
1.49% |
0.47% |
0.12% |
0.03% |
| Lucie Safarova |
1594 |
61.59% |
26.39% |
12.74% |
5.51% |
2.29% |
0.81% |
0.29% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Daria Gavrilova |
1644 |
100.00% |
61.37% |
33.83% |
16.93% |
8.17% |
3.42% |
1.46% |
| Ana Konjuh |
1617 |
100.00% |
65.64% |
28.83% |
14.23% |
6.35% |
2.43% |
0.95% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Kirsten Flipkens |
1520 |
55.02% |
20.02% |
6.35% |
2.29% |
0.74% |
0.20% |
0.05% |
| Jennifer Brady |
1485 |
44.98% |
14.33% |
3.99% |
1.26% |
0.35% |
0.08% |
0.02% |
| Misaki Doi |
1498 |
52.01% |
11.96% |
4.64% |
1.55% |
0.46% |
0.11% |
0.03% |
| Veronica Cepede Royg |
1484 |
47.99% |
10.36% |
3.83% |
1.21% |
0.34% |
0.08% |
0.02% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Dominika Cibulkova |
1708 |
100.00% |
77.68% |
52.36% |
32.44% |
18.49% |
9.34% |
4.80% |
| Agnieszka Radwanska |
1718 |
100.00% |
79.03% |
59.87% |
32.57% |
18.02% |
10.34% |
5.46% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Donna Vekic |
1448 |
40.89% |
7.13% |
2.87% |
0.61% |
0.14% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| Wang Qiang |
1512 |
59.11% |
13.83% |
6.80% |
1.90% |
0.55% |
0.17% |
0.04% |
| Kateryna Bondarenko |
1473 |
51.44% |
20.18% |
5.14% |
1.23% |
0.31% |
0.08% |
0.02% |
| Paula Badosa Gibert |
1463 |
48.56% |
18.39% |
4.50% |
1.03% |
0.25% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Mirjana Lucic-Baroni |
1549 |
100.00% |
61.43% |
20.83% |
6.70% |
2.24% |
0.77% |
0.24% |
| Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova |
1647 |
100.00% |
65.26% |
27.25% |
13.93% |
6.39% |
3.04% |
1.31% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Jelena Jankovic |
1558 |
57.01% |
21.36% |
6.57% |
2.60% |
0.90% |
0.32% |
0.10% |
| Yaroslava Shvedova |
1509 |
42.99% |
13.38% |
3.41% |
1.14% |
0.33% |
0.10% |
0.03% |
| Bethanie Mattek-Sands |
1440 |
33.00% |
4.70% |
1.30% |
0.34% |
0.07% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| Katerina Siniakova |
1563 |
67.00% |
16.88% |
7.34% |
2.94% |
1.03% |
0.37% |
0.12% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Elina Svitolina |
1752 |
100.00% |
78.42% |
54.13% |
35.01% |
20.92% |
12.97% |
7.45% |
| Barbora Strycova |
1654 |
100.00% |
61.54% |
38.20% |
17.28% |
7.86% |
3.82% |
1.68% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Johanna Larsson |
1540 |
42.15% |
14.40% |
6.65% |
2.10% |
0.65% |
0.22% |
0.06% |
| Monica Niculescu |
1595 |
57.85% |
24.06% |
12.98% |
4.92% |
1.85% |
0.75% |
0.27% |
| Andrea Petkovic |
1544 |
62.67% |
26.59% |
10.34% |
3.31% |
1.04% |
0.35% |
0.11% |
| Jana Cepelova |
1454 |
37.33% |
11.39% |
3.15% |
0.72% |
0.16% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Coco Vandeweghe |
1597 |
100.00% |
62.02% |
28.68% |
10.94% |
4.15% |
1.69% |
0.62% |
| Yulia Putintseva |
1550 |
100.00% |
61.59% |
17.23% |
7.29% |
2.34% |
0.81% |
0.25% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Carina Witthoft |
1491 |
57.99% |
24.12% |
5.35% |
1.84% |
0.47% |
0.13% |
0.03% |
| Nicole Gibbs |
1435 |
42.01% |
14.30% |
2.50% |
0.69% |
0.14% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| Madison Brengle |
1476 |
43.98% |
6.80% |
2.98% |
0.97% |
0.23% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| Jelena Ostapenko |
1518 |
56.02% |
10.59% |
5.27% |
2.00% |
0.57% |
0.17% |
0.05% |
| Bye |
|
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
0.00% |
| Karolina Pliskova |
1771 |
100.00% |
82.61% |
66.67% |
47.94% |
29.39% |
18.94% |
11.36% |
