Tuesday, 21 March 2017

2017 Miami Predictions - Women's

My tournament simulator returns for the Miami tournament, with a look at the Women's draw.

Stock tournament image, ©printyourbrackets.com

 (This post has been updated with Magda Linette replacing Catherine Bellis)
  • Karolina Pliskova is the most likely to win the tournament, with a 11.36% chance of winning the whole thing, with Angelique Kerber next at 10.39%. The 3rd most likely is Johanna Konta with 7.58% and Elina Svitolina 4th with 7.45%
  • Once again, Kiki Bertens has a really easy draw compared to other players with a similar ELO rating. I have her as the 46th most likely winner, while she is only the 62nd highest ranked player here.
  • On the other hand, Varvara Lepchenko has the toughest draw. She is the 63rd highest ranked player here, but is the 78th most likely winner of the tournament.
  • The toughest 1st round draw went to Johanna Larsson, as she's the 83rd most likely player to progress to round 2, but she's ranked 47th of the competitors. (Alison Riske had the toughest R1 until the update, she's now the 2nd toughest)
  • Carina Witthoft and Kateryna Bondarenko got the easiest 1st round draws, as they're the 45th and 59th most likely players to advance to round 2, while they're the 71st and 85th highest ranked competitors here.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates: Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.


Name ELO R1 % R2 % R3 % R4 % R5 % R6 % R7 %
Angelique Kerber 1762 100.00% 79.27% 60.51% 46.02% 28.89% 17.75% 10.39%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Duan Yingying 1528 49.71% 10.26% 4.75% 2.18% 0.69% 0.21% 0.06%
Laura Siegemund 1530 50.29% 10.47% 4.88% 2.25% 0.72% 0.22% 0.06%
Shelby Rogers 1493 56.16% 20.21% 4.69% 1.92% 0.53% 0.14% 0.03%
Marina Erakovic 1450 43.84% 13.38% 2.59% 0.91% 0.21% 0.05% 0.01%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Daria Kasatkina 1593 100.00% 66.41% 22.58% 12.41% 4.95% 1.92% 0.68%
Carla Suarez Navarro 1607 100.00% 54.45% 35.79% 14.37% 6.00% 2.43% 0.91%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Julia Gorges 1578 50.58% 23.18% 14.35% 5.24% 1.99% 0.73% 0.25%
Alison Riske 1574 49.42% 22.37% 13.73% 4.95% 1.85% 0.67% 0.22%
Risa Ozaki 1491 52.44% 25.32% 9.06% 2.41% 0.66% 0.18% 0.04%
Louisa Chirico 1474 47.56% 21.80% 7.31% 1.82% 0.47% 0.12% 0.03%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Kiki Bertens 1503 100.00% 52.89% 19.76% 5.52% 1.59% 0.44% 0.11%
Venus Williams 1680 100.00% 66.57% 39.03% 20.87% 11.10% 5.60% 2.64%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Beatriz Haddad Maia 1478 33.51% 7.98% 2.54% 0.72% 0.20% 0.05% 0.01%
Lesia Tsurenko 1597 66.49% 25.45% 12.04% 5.12% 2.17% 0.85% 0.31%
Heather Watson 1496 51.58% 14.33% 4.36% 1.32% 0.40% 0.11% 0.03%
Patricia Maria Tig 1485 48.42% 12.84% 3.75% 1.09% 0.31% 0.08% 0.02%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Kristina Mladenovic 1662 100.00% 72.83% 38.28% 19.56% 9.94% 4.77% 2.13%
Roberta Vinci 1558 100.00% 61.23% 20.32% 7.77% 2.90% 1.00% 0.31%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Amanda Anisimova 1500 57.29% 23.91% 6.39% 1.98% 0.60% 0.17% 0.04%
Taylor Townsend 1449 42.71% 14.87% 3.23% 0.81% 0.20% 0.05% 0.01%
Mandy Minella 1456 41.17% 6.95% 2.77% 0.72% 0.18% 0.04% 0.01%
Kristyna Pliskova 1518 58.83% 13.23% 6.42% 2.13% 0.69% 0.20% 0.05%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Svetlana Kuznetsova 1733 100.00% 79.83% 60.86% 37.91% 22.77% 13.12% 7.16%
Simona Halep 1725 100.00% 71.52% 51.29% 36.59% 20.52% 11.41% 6.10%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Kristina Kucova 1511 38.14% 8.61% 3.73% 1.58% 0.45% 0.13% 0.03%
Naomi Osaka 1595 61.86% 19.87% 10.92% 5.92% 2.30% 0.88% 0.31%
Kurumi Nara 1460 46.69% 14.42% 3.27% 1.16% 0.27% 0.06% 0.01%
Anett Kontaveit 1483 53.31% 18.00% 4.50% 1.73% 0.45% 0.11% 0.03%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Ekaterina Makarova 1600 100.00% 67.58% 26.28% 14.43% 5.69% 2.21% 0.80%
Caroline Garcia 1585 100.00% 55.02% 30.21% 12.40% 4.65% 1.72% 0.59%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Peng Shuai 1591 68.63% 34.91% 19.46% 8.15% 3.12% 1.17% 0.41%
Danka Kovinic 1455 31.37% 10.08% 3.68% 0.94% 0.22% 0.05% 0.01%
Eugenie Bouchard 1548 50.14% 24.64% 11.40% 4.14% 1.36% 0.44% 0.13%
Ashleigh Barty 1547 49.86% 24.43% 11.26% 4.07% 1.34% 0.43% 0.13%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Samantha Stosur 1554 100.00% 50.94% 23.99% 8.89% 3.00% 0.99% 0.30%
Johanna Konta 1741 100.00% 75.82% 58.04% 36.23% 23.56% 13.61% 7.58%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Alize Cornet 1574 63.21% 17.48% 9.74% 3.96% 1.69% 0.60% 0.20%
Aliaksandra Sasnovich 1480 36.79% 6.70% 2.84% 0.83% 0.26% 0.06% 0.01%
Oceane Dodin 1494 49.28% 20.02% 5.00% 1.55% 0.50% 0.13% 0.03%
Pauline Parmentier 1499 50.72% 20.95% 5.34% 1.69% 0.56% 0.15% 0.04%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Timea Babos 1560 100.00% 59.03% 19.05% 7.41% 3.03% 1.02% 0.32%
Irina-Camelia Begu 1527 100.00% 52.47% 15.77% 5.23% 1.91% 0.57% 0.16%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Lara Arruabarrena 1497 46.55% 21.27% 5.69% 1.69% 0.55% 0.15% 0.04%
Natalia Vikhlyantseva 1521 53.45% 26.26% 7.72% 2.51% 0.90% 0.26% 0.07%
Viktorija Golubic 1537 56.86% 14.15% 7.44% 2.56% 0.97% 0.30% 0.09%
Tsvetana Pironkova 1489 43.14% 8.66% 3.96% 1.14% 0.36% 0.09% 0.02%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Madison Keys 1729 100.00% 77.19% 59.43% 35.20% 22.36% 12.56% 6.78%
Garbine Muguruza 1682 100.00% 70.89% 49.24% 25.84% 14.23% 6.68% 3.19%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Christina McHale 1555 60.49% 19.66% 10.28% 3.66% 1.38% 0.42% 0.13%
Annika Beck 1481 39.51% 9.45% 3.95% 1.06% 0.30% 0.07% 0.02%
Sara Errani 1527 51.44% 23.80% 8.33% 2.68% 0.91% 0.25% 0.07%
Belinda Bencic 1517 48.56% 21.77% 7.35% 2.27% 0.75% 0.20% 0.05%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Zhang Shuai 1553 100.00% 54.43% 20.86% 7.36% 2.75% 0.84% 0.26%
Anastasija Sevastova 1551 100.00% 45.92% 14.17% 5.96% 2.21% 0.67% 0.21%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Sorana Cirstea 1483 30.88% 12.45% 2.92% 0.97% 0.28% 0.06% 0.01%
Monica Puig 1623 69.12% 41.62% 16.62% 8.63% 4.04% 1.58% 0.63%
Lauren Davis 1626 67.25% 23.23% 13.36% 6.99% 3.30% 1.30% 0.52%
Varvara Lepchenko 1501 32.75% 6.70% 2.68% 0.95% 0.29% 0.07% 0.02%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Caroline Wozniacki 1737 100.00% 70.07% 50.25% 33.64% 21.04% 11.46% 6.35%
Elena Vesnina 1652 100.00% 73.15% 40.40% 20.66% 10.20% 4.38% 1.91%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Magda Linette 1485 52.16% 14.43% 4.67% 1.38% 0.39% 0.09% 0.02%
Ajla Tomljanovic 1470 47.84% 12.42% 3.79% 1.06% 0.28% 0.06% 0.01%
Yanina Wickmayer 1512 38.41% 12.24% 4.57% 1.49% 0.47% 0.12% 0.03%
Lucie Safarova 1594 61.59% 26.39% 12.74% 5.51% 2.29% 0.81% 0.29%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Daria Gavrilova 1644 100.00% 61.37% 33.83% 16.93% 8.17% 3.42% 1.46%
Ana Konjuh 1617 100.00% 65.64% 28.83% 14.23% 6.35% 2.43% 0.95%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Kirsten Flipkens 1520 55.02% 20.02% 6.35% 2.29% 0.74% 0.20% 0.05%
Jennifer Brady 1485 44.98% 14.33% 3.99% 1.26% 0.35% 0.08% 0.02%
Misaki Doi 1498 52.01% 11.96% 4.64% 1.55% 0.46% 0.11% 0.03%
Veronica Cepede Royg 1484 47.99% 10.36% 3.83% 1.21% 0.34% 0.08% 0.02%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Dominika Cibulkova 1708 100.00% 77.68% 52.36% 32.44% 18.49% 9.34% 4.80%
Agnieszka Radwanska 1718 100.00% 79.03% 59.87% 32.57% 18.02% 10.34% 5.46%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Donna Vekic 1448 40.89% 7.13% 2.87% 0.61% 0.14% 0.03% 0.01%
Wang Qiang 1512 59.11% 13.83% 6.80% 1.90% 0.55% 0.17% 0.04%
Kateryna Bondarenko 1473 51.44% 20.18% 5.14% 1.23% 0.31% 0.08% 0.02%
Paula Badosa Gibert 1463 48.56% 18.39% 4.50% 1.03% 0.25% 0.06% 0.01%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Mirjana Lucic-Baroni 1549 100.00% 61.43% 20.83% 6.70% 2.24% 0.77% 0.24%
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova 1647 100.00% 65.26% 27.25% 13.93% 6.39% 3.04% 1.31%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Jelena Jankovic 1558 57.01% 21.36% 6.57% 2.60% 0.90% 0.32% 0.10%
Yaroslava Shvedova 1509 42.99% 13.38% 3.41% 1.14% 0.33% 0.10% 0.03%
Bethanie Mattek-Sands 1440 33.00% 4.70% 1.30% 0.34% 0.07% 0.02% 0.00%
Katerina Siniakova 1563 67.00% 16.88% 7.34% 2.94% 1.03% 0.37% 0.12%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Elina Svitolina 1752 100.00% 78.42% 54.13% 35.01% 20.92% 12.97% 7.45%
Barbora Strycova 1654 100.00% 61.54% 38.20% 17.28% 7.86% 3.82% 1.68%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Johanna Larsson 1540 42.15% 14.40% 6.65% 2.10% 0.65% 0.22% 0.06%
Monica Niculescu 1595 57.85% 24.06% 12.98% 4.92% 1.85% 0.75% 0.27%
Andrea Petkovic 1544 62.67% 26.59% 10.34% 3.31% 1.04% 0.35% 0.11%
Jana Cepelova 1454 37.33% 11.39% 3.15% 0.72% 0.16% 0.04% 0.01%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Coco Vandeweghe 1597 100.00% 62.02% 28.68% 10.94% 4.15% 1.69% 0.62%
Yulia Putintseva 1550 100.00% 61.59% 17.23% 7.29% 2.34% 0.81% 0.25%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Carina Witthoft 1491 57.99% 24.12% 5.35% 1.84% 0.47% 0.13% 0.03%
Nicole Gibbs 1435 42.01% 14.30% 2.50% 0.69% 0.14% 0.03% 0.01%
Madison Brengle 1476 43.98% 6.80% 2.98% 0.97% 0.23% 0.06% 0.01%
Jelena Ostapenko 1518 56.02% 10.59% 5.27% 2.00% 0.57% 0.17% 0.05%
Bye 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
Karolina Pliskova 1771 100.00% 82.61% 66.67% 47.94% 29.39% 18.94% 11.36%

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