Tuesday, 14 March 2017

2017 IW Week 2 Predictions - Women's

We're down to the last 16, so I'm going to update my Indian Wells prediction, but first, a look at how the early rounds went.

Stock tournament image, ©printyourbrackets.com

  • Of the 4 favourites for the title before the tournament, 3 of them are still in. Johanna Konta was the only one not to make it to the 4th round, losing to Caroline Garcia in the 3rd round.
  • Whilst Kiki Bertens had the easiest overall draw, this didn't help her to victory, as she lost to Timea Bacsinszky in the 3rd round. Neither of the 2 players with the toughest overall draws (Mona Barthel and Lucie Safarova) made it, losing in the 1st round and 3rd round respectively
  • Madison Brengle had the easiest 1st round draw, and won as expected before losing to Roberta Vinci in the 2nd round. Despite having the toughest 1st round draw, Peng Shuai won her match, and is still in the tournament!
But what about the future? Let's take a look at what the rest of the tournament looks like
  • Angelique Kerber now has a 17.01% chance of winning the title, Karolina Pliskova is 2nd at 13.1%, Elina Svitolia is 3rd at 11.65%, but 4th is now tied between Madison Keys and Caroline Wozniacki (They have the same ELO and play each other next), both at 8.92%.
  • Peng Shuai now has the easiest draw to the title relative to her ranking, as she's the 14th most likely to win while having the 15th highest ranking of the remaining players.
  • On the other hand, Elena Vesnina has the toughest draw relative to her ranking, as she's the 15th most likely to win while having the 14th highest ranking of the remaining players.
  • As for the next match, it's Garbine Muguruza, Madison Keys and Caroline Wozniacki who have the toughest 4th round match compared to their ranking. They're the 9th, 4th and 4th highest ranked players still in, but they're the 13th, 8th and 8th most likely players to make it to the quarter finals,
  • The players with the easiest next matches compared to their rankings are Svetlana Kuznetsova, Kristina Mladenovic, Peng Shuai and Venus Williams. They are the 3rd, 7th, 12th and 5th most likely to advance, while being the 6th, 10th, 15th and 8th highest ranked players respectively.
Now, the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates: Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.


NameELOR4 %R5 %R6 %R7 %
Karolina Pliskova
176868.75%37.92%22.97%13.10%
Timea Bacsinszky
163131.25%11.28%4.68%1.78%
Elina Svitolina
176462.13%34.36%20.63%11.65%
Garbine Muguruza
167837.87%16.43%7.89%3.51%
Dominika Cibulkova
172060.90%33.87%16.13%8.12%
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova
164339.10%17.55%6.51%2.58%
Caroline Garcia
159132.12%11.65%3.56%1.17%
Svetlana Kuznetsova
172167.88%36.93%17.64%8.91%
Madison Keys
173950.00%31.68%17.10%8.92%
Caroline Wozniacki
173950.00%31.68%17.10%8.92%
Lauren Davis
163647.84%17.03%6.80%2.58%
Kristina Mladenovic
165152.16%19.61%8.22%3.28%
Peng Shuai
159938.01%12.40%4.40%1.46%
Venus Williams
168461.99%26.99%12.72%5.65%
Elena Vesnina
160126.64%11.41%4.08%1.36%
Angelique Kerber
177773.36%49.20%29.59%17.01%

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