Tuesday, 28 March 2017

2017 Miami Week 2 Predictions - Men's

We're down to the last 16, so I'm going to update my Miami prediction, but first, a look at how the early rounds went.

Stock tournament image, ©printyourbrackets.com

  • Of the 4 favourites for the title before the tournament, 3 of them are still in. Milos Raonic went out in the 3rd round to Jared Donaldson.
  • Whilst Paolo Lorenzi had the easiest overall draw, this didn't help him to victory, as he lost to Adrian Mannarino in the 2nd round. Mikael Ymer and Robin Haase, who had the toughest overall draws, also failed to progress, with the winner of their match (Robin Haase) losing to Juan Martin del Potro in the 2nd round.
  • Adrian Mannarino had the easiest 1st round draw, and managed to win his match, and is still in the tournament. The player who had the toughest 1st round draw, Ryan Harrison, lost his opening match as expected to Fabio Fognini.
But what about the future? Let's take a look at what the rest of the tournament looks like
  • Roger Federer is now the favourite for the title, with a 27.72% chance of winning the whole thing, with Rafael Nadal 2nd at 16.38%. The 3rd most likely winner is now Kei Nishikori with 15.29%, and 4th is Jack Sock with 9.32%.
  • Tomas Berdych, Jack Sock and Federico Delbonis have the easiest draw to the title relative to their ranking, as they're the 6th, 4th and 13th most likely to win while having the 7th, 5th and 14th highest ranking of the remaining players respectively.
  • On the other hand, Stan Wawrinka, Nick Kyrgios and Nicolas Mahut have the toughest draws relative to their ranking, as they're the 5th, 7th and 14th most likely to win while having the 4th, 6th and 13th highest ranking of the remaining players.
  • As for the next match, it's the overall favourite Roger Federer who has the toughest 4th round match compared to his ranking. He's the highest ranked player still in, but he's the 5th most likely player to make it to the quarter finals,
  • The players with the easiest next match compared to their ranking are Tomas Berdych, Adrian Mannarino, Fabio Fognini and Donald Young. They are the 4th, 13th, 9th and 8th most likely players to advance, while being the 7th, 16th, 12th and 11th highest ranked players remaining.
Now, the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates: Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.

NameELOR4 %R5 %R6 %R7 %
Stan Wawrinka
Alexander Zverev
Nick Kyrgios
David Goffin
Roger Federer
Roberto Bautista Agut
Tomas Berdych
Adrian Mannarino
Rafael Nadal
Nicolas Mahut
Jack Sock
Jared Donaldson
Fabio Fognini
Donald Young
Federico Delbonis
Kei Nishikori

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