Wednesday, 15 March 2017

2017 IW Week 2 Predictions - Men's

We're down to the last 16, so I'm going to update my Indian Wells prediction, but first, a look at how the early rounds went.

Stock tournament image, ©printyourbrackets.com

  • Of the 4 favourites for the title before the tournament, only 2 of them are still in. Andy Murray went out in the 2nd round, and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga lost in the same round.
  • Whilst Marcel Granollers had the easiest overall draw, this didn't help him to victory, as he lost to Malek Jaziri in the 2nd round. Andrey Kuznetsov, who had the toughest overall draw, also lost, losing in the 1st round to Federico Delbonis.
  • Julien Bennetau had the easiest 1st round draw, but ended up losing his 1st round match to Facundo Bagnis. Despite having the toughest 1st round draw, Alexandr Dolgopolov won his opening match before losing to Philipp Kohlschreiber in round 2.
But what about the future? Let's take a look at what the rest of the tournament looks like
  • Novak Djokovic is now the favourite for the title, with a 36.23% chance of winning the whole thing, with Roger Federer 2nd at 11.21%. The 3rd most likely winner is now Stan Wawrinka with 10.8%, and 4th is Kei Nishiori with 9.42%.
  • David Goffin now has the easiest draw to the title relative to his ranking, as he's the 5th most likely to win while having the 9th highest ranking of the remaining players.
  • On the other hand, Rafael Nadal and Nick Kyrgios have the toughest draws relative to their ranking, as they're the 7th and 11th most likely to win while having the 3rd and 7th highest ranking of the remaining players.
  • As for the next match, it's Nick Kyrgios who has the toughest 4th round match compared to his ranking. He's the 7th highest ranked player still in, but he's the 16th most likely player to make it to the quarter finals,
  • The player with the easiest next match compared to his ranking is Pablo Carreno Busta. He is the 5th most likely player to advance, while being the 11th highest ranked player remaining.
Now, the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates: Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.

NameELOR4 %R5 %R6 %R7 %
Dusan Lajovic
151429.06%8.10%1.77%0.22%
Pablo Carreno Busta
166970.94%33.94%13.61%3.31%
David Goffin
172668.13%43.38%20.82%6.31%
Pablo Cuevas
159431.87%14.58%4.45%0.78%
Stan Wawrinka
177780.29%46.20%29.74%10.80%
Yoshihito Nishioka
153319.71%4.92%1.56%0.21%
Gael Monfils
173051.73%25.69%14.94%4.60%
Dominic Thiem
171848.27%23.20%13.11%3.86%
Malek Jaziri
153623.50%5.69%0.61%0.16%
Jack Sock
174176.50%37.73%10.31%5.44%
Donald Young
159824.66%9.17%1.34%0.45%
Kei Nishikori
179275.34%47.42%15.75%9.42%
Rafael Nadal
181742.01%14.26%8.59%5.42%
Roger Federer
187357.99%23.70%15.98%11.21%
Nick Kyrgios
173218.81%6.36%3.09%1.59%
Novak Djokovic
198681.19%55.69%44.34%36.23%

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