The 2nd week of the French Open has begin, so it's time for me to update my predictions for the tournament, after the jump, I summarize what's happened so far, and present what I think is likely to happen for the rest of the event.
- Of the 4 favourites for the title before the tournament, all 4 of them are still in!
- Dominic Thiem had the easiest overall draw, but lost in round 1 to Pablo Andujar. Alexander Zverev now has the easiest overall draw relative to his ranking. Andrey Rublev had the toughest overall draw and lost in round 1 to Jan-Lennard Struff. Daniil Medvedev now has the toughest draw of the players remaining.
- Salvatore Caruso had the easiest 1st round draw, but he ended up losing his round 1 match to James Duckworth. The player who had the toughest 1st round draw, Alexei Popyrin lost his first round match to Rafael Nadal as expected.
But what about the future? Let's take a look at what the rest of the tournament looks like
- Rafael Nadal is the favourite for the title, with a 31.49% chance of winning the whole thing, with Novak Djokovic 2nd at 23.47%. The 3rd most likely winner is Roger Federer with 10.23%, and 4th is Stefanos Tsitsipas with 9.97%.
- As for the next match, it's Alejandro Davidovich Fokina who has the easiest next match, as he's 31.18 percentage points more likely to make it to the quarter finals than a player of his ranking would expect. Matteo Berrettini has the toughest next match, as he's 32.54 percentage points less likely to win than his ranking would expect to do.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # | Name | ELO | R1 % | R2 % | R3 % | R4 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novak Djokovic | 1998 | 89.18% | 57.83% | 33.09% | 23.47% |
| 2 | Lorenzo Musetti | 1631 | 10.82% | 2.13% | 0.39% | 0.09% |
| 3 | Matteo Berrettini | 1759 | 26.94% | 6.82% | 1.99% | 0.78% |
| 4 | Roger Federer | 1932 | 73.06% | 33.22% | 16.28% | 10.23% |
| 5 | Rafael Nadal | 2016 | 83.22% | 73.63% | 43.10% | 31.49% |
| 6 | Jannik Sinner | 1738 | 16.78% | 10.23% | 2.39% | 0.88% |
| 7 | Diego Schwartzman | 1687 | 59.48% | 10.73% | 2.01% | 0.61% |
| 8 | Jan-Lennard Struff | 1620 | 40.52% | 5.42% | 0.75% | 0.17% |
| 9 | Alexander Zverev | 1864 | 67.73% | 53.39% | 27.96% | 9.78% |
| 10 | Kei Nishikori | 1735 | 32.27% | 20.66% | 7.22% | 1.52% |
| 11 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 1658 | 58.12% | 16.55% | 4.29% | 0.64% |
| 12 | Federico Delbonis | 1601 | 41.88% | 9.39% | 1.91% | 0.22% |
| 13 | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 1887 | 69.79% | 41.22% | 26.34% | 9.97% |
| 14 | Pablo Carreno Busta | 1741 | 30.21% | 11.93% | 5.35% | 1.16% |
| 15 | Christian Garin | 1675 | 25.03% | 7.06% | 2.56% | 0.41% |
| 16 | Daniil Medvedev | 1865 | 74.97% | 39.79% | 24.37% | 8.57% |
