The 2nd week of the French Open has begin, so it's time for me to update my predictions for the tournament, after the jump, I summarize what's happened so far, and present what I think is likely to happen for the rest of the event.
- Of the 4 favourites for the title before the tournament, only one of them is still in. Aryna Sabalenka lost in round 3 to Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, Ashleigh Barty retired from her round 2 match and Naomi Osaka withdrew before her round 2 match.
- Maria Sakkari had the easiest overall draw, and is still in the tournament. Sorana Cirstea now has the easiest overall draw relative to her ranking. Elina Svitolina had the toughest overall draw and lost in round 3 to Barbora Krejcikova. Anastasia Pavlyuchekoova now has the toughest draw of the players remaining.
- Stefanie Vogele had the easiest 1st round draw, but she lost her match to Jasmine Paolini. The player who had the toughest 1st round draw, Ana Konjug lost her first round match to Aryna Sabalenka as expected.
But what about the future? Let's take a look at what the rest of the tournament looks like
- Serena Williams is now the favourite for the title, with a 21.44% chance of winning the whole thing, with Iga Swiatek 2nd at 13.93%. The 3rd most likely winner is Victoria Azarenka with 12.59%, and 4th is Maria Sakkari with 7.85%.
- As for the next match, it's Sorana Cirstea who has the easiest next match, as she's 28.65 percentage points more likely to make it to the quarter finals than a player of her ranking would expect. Elena Rybakina has the toughest next match, as she's 18.61 percentage points less likely to win than her ranking would expect to do.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # | Name | ELO | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ons Jabeur | 1710 | 46.54% | 26.88% | 12.23% | 5.53% |
| 2 | Coco Gauff | 1734 | 53.46% | 32.64% | 15.96% | 7.74% |
| 3 | Sloane Stephens | 1598 | 37.29% | 12.23% | 3.76% | 1.16% |
| 4 | Barbora Krejcikova | 1689 | 62.71% | 28.25% | 12.01% | 5.08% |
| 5 | Sofia Kenin | 1725 | 47.06% | 23.38% | 12.56% | 5.93% |
| 6 | Maria Sakkari | 1745 | 52.94% | 27.76% | 15.71% | 7.85% |
| 7 | Marta Kostyuk | 1558 | 22.52% | 5.97% | 1.86% | 0.49% |
| 8 | Iga Swiatek | 1773 | 77.48% | 42.89% | 25.91% | 13.93% |
| 9 | Serena Williams | 1835 | 71.54% | 44.58% | 33.13% | 21.44% |
| 10 | Elena Rybakina | 1675 | 28.46% | 11.42% | 6.13% | 2.61% |
| 11 | Victoria Azarenka | 1784 | 65.10% | 31.92% | 21.79% | 12.59% |
| 12 | Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova | 1675 | 34.90% | 12.08% | 6.49% | 2.76% |
| 13 | Tamara Zidansek | 1551 | 35.67% | 12.11% | 2.62% | 0.70% |
| 14 | Sorana Cirstea | 1654 | 64.33% | 30.94% | 10.17% | 4.02% |
| 15 | Marketa Vondrousova | 1660 | 48.02% | 26.87% | 9.04% | 3.65% |
| 16 | Paula Badosa | 1674 | 51.98% | 30.08% | 10.64% | 4.50% |
