Tomorrow, the 3rd Grand Slam tournament of the year, Wimbledon, begins. Let's take a look at the draw for this tournament, and my predictions for the tournament, including who's most likely to win, and full probabilities for how likely each player is to make it to each round.
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- Novak Djokovic is the most likely to win the tournament, with a 35.77% chance of winning the whole thing, with Stefanos Tsitsipas next at 13.87%. The 3rd most likely is Roger Federer with 12.42% and Alexander Zverev is the 4th favourite with 8.39%
- Zverev has the easiest overall draw, as he is 0.49 percentage points more likely to win the tournament than expected. On the other hand, Daniil Medvedev has a tough draw. He is 0.49 percentage points less likely to win the tournament than expected.
- The toughest 1st round draw went to Jan-Lennard Struff, as he's 43.01 percentage points less likely to win than a player of his rank is expected to win. Marc Polmans got the easiest 1st round draw, as he's 36.87 percentage points more likely to make it to round 2 than his ranking would expect.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # | Name | ELO | R1 % | R2 % | R3 % | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Novak Djokovic | 2022 | 94.90% | 85.06% | 78.28% | 71.74% | 60.25% | 47.37% | 35.77% |
| 2 | Jack Draper | 1514 | 5.10% | 1.74% | 0.72% | 0.29% | 0.07% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 3 | Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera | 1486 | 24.61% | 1.60% | 0.61% | 0.22% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 4 | Kevin Anderson | 1681 | 75.39% | 11.60% | 7.35% | 4.57% | 2.09% | 0.82% | 0.27% |
| 5 | Andreas Seppi | 1519 | 65.65% | 25.00% | 2.38% | 0.97% | 0.25% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 6 | Joao Sousa | 1407 | 34.35% | 8.61% | 0.48% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 7 | Denis Kudla | 1447 | 23.23% | 10.53% | 0.72% | 0.23% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 8 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 1655 | 76.77% | 55.86% | 9.46% | 5.56% | 2.36% | 0.86% | 0.26% |
| 9 | Christian Garin | 1670 | 75.00% | 58.79% | 38.96% | 8.27% | 3.66% | 1.40% | 0.44% |
| 10 | Bernabe Zapata Miralles | 1479 | 25.00% | 13.68% | 5.57% | 0.55% | 0.12% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 11 | Marc Polmans | 1443 | 49.00% | 13.30% | 4.78% | 0.40% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 12 | Yen-Hsun Lu | 1450 | 51.00% | 14.23% | 5.24% | 0.46% | 0.09% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 13 | Pedro Martinez | 1494 | 53.88% | 20.99% | 8.06% | 0.85% | 0.20% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 14 | Stefano Travaglia | 1467 | 46.12% | 16.37% | 5.74% | 0.54% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 15 | Christopher O'Connell | 1453 | 27.57% | 12.66% | 4.23% | 0.37% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 16 | Gael Monfils | 1620 | 72.43% | 49.98% | 27.41% | 4.85% | 1.84% | 0.60% | 0.16% |
| 17 | Diego Schwartzman | 1693 | 80.11% | 60.29% | 34.50% | 16.48% | 4.29% | 1.75% | 0.60% |
| 18 | Benoit Paire | 1451 | 19.89% | 8.58% | 2.27% | 0.47% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 19 | Marco Cecchinato | 1517 | 56.12% | 18.66% | 6.36% | 1.73% | 0.24% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 20 | Liam Broady | 1475 | 43.88% | 12.47% | 3.63% | 0.83% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 21 | Jiri Vesely | 1523 | 51.39% | 14.91% | 5.70% | 1.58% | 0.22% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 22 | Yannick Hanfmann | 1513 | 48.61% | 13.55% | 5.02% | 1.34% | 0.18% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 23 | Marton Fucsovics | 1613 | 35.27% | 22.34% | 11.17% | 4.23% | 0.84% | 0.27% | 0.07% |
| 24 | Jannik Sinner | 1719 | 64.73% | 49.20% | 31.35% | 16.01% | 4.53% | 1.99% | 0.75% |
| 25 | Fabio Fognini | 1600 | 53.15% | 28.81% | 9.43% | 4.07% | 0.77% | 0.23% | 0.06% |
| 26 | Albert Ramos Vinolas | 1578 | 46.85% | 23.92% | 7.25% | 2.92% | 0.51% | 0.14% | 0.03% |
| 27 | Pablo Cuevas | 1570 | 49.81% | 23.50% | 6.92% | 2.72% | 0.46% | 0.12% | 0.03% |
| 28 | Laslo Djere | 1571 | 50.19% | 23.77% | 7.04% | 2.77% | 0.47% | 0.13% | 0.03% |
| 29 | Lloyd Harris | 1574 | 58.23% | 14.44% | 7.08% | 2.82% | 0.48% | 0.13% | 0.03% |
| 30 | Ricardas Berankis | 1516 | 41.77% | 8.13% | 3.32% | 1.08% | 0.15% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 31 | Federico Delbonis | 1593 | 20.64% | 11.58% | 5.99% | 2.53% | 0.46% | 0.14% | 0.03% |
| 32 | Andrey Rublev | 1827 | 79.36% | 65.85% | 52.98% | 38.41% | 14.94% | 8.58% | 4.42% |
| 33 | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 1904 | 87.88% | 77.67% | 67.47% | 56.31% | 45.46% | 22.45% | 13.87% |
| 34 | Frances Tiafoe | 1560 | 12.12% | 6.30% | 3.06% | 1.31% | 0.50% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 35 | Roberto Carballes Baena | 1478 | 35.24% | 4.09% | 1.52% | 0.49% | 0.14% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 36 | Vasek Pospisil | 1583 | 64.76% | 11.94% | 6.19% | 2.84% | 1.19% | 0.21% | 0.05% |
| 37 | Egor Gerasimov | 1560 | 62.91% | 28.69% | 5.94% | 2.54% | 0.98% | 0.16% | 0.03% |
| 38 | Jay Clarke | 1469 | 37.09% | 12.34% | 1.76% | 0.55% | 0.15% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 39 | Mackenzie McDonald | 1533 | 36.92% | 18.79% | 3.49% | 1.37% | 0.48% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 40 | Karen Khachanov | 1626 | 63.08% | 40.18% | 10.58% | 5.47% | 2.60% | 0.54% | 0.14% |
| 41 | Daniel Evans | 1643 | 63.98% | 46.10% | 24.61% | 7.80% | 3.89% | 0.86% | 0.24% |
| 42 | Feliciano Lopez | 1544 | 36.02% | 21.32% | 8.51% | 1.90% | 0.70% | 0.10% | 0.02% |
| 43 | Dusan Lajovic | 1483 | 51.24% | 16.96% | 5.48% | 0.97% | 0.28% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 44 | Gilles Simon | 1475 | 48.76% | 15.62% | 4.89% | 0.83% | 0.24% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 45 | Zhang Zhizhen | 1507 | 54.17% | 15.73% | 6.53% | 1.27% | 0.40% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 46 | Antoine Hoang | 1477 | 45.83% | 11.80% | 4.45% | 0.77% | 0.22% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 47 | Sebastian Korda | 1624 | 40.66% | 27.63% | 15.90% | 4.73% | 2.23% | 0.46% | 0.12% |
| 48 | Alex De Minaur | 1690 | 59.34% | 44.84% | 29.63% | 10.85% | 6.09% | 1.59% | 0.54% |
| 49 | Denis Shapovalov | 1671 | 66.36% | 45.68% | 24.46% | 14.45% | 5.34% | 1.31% | 0.41% |
| 50 | Philipp Kohlschreiber | 1553 | 33.64% | 17.84% | 6.81% | 2.93% | 0.72% | 0.11% | 0.02% |
| 51 | Pierre-Hugues Herbert | 1563 | 61.77% | 25.04% | 9.89% | 4.39% | 1.13% | 0.18% | 0.04% |
| 52 | Pablo Andujar | 1480 | 38.23% | 11.44% | 3.38% | 1.13% | 0.21% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 53 | Oscar Otte | 1487 | 46.46% | 11.55% | 4.00% | 1.37% | 0.26% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 54 | Arthur Rinderknech | 1511 | 53.54% | 14.72% | 5.56% | 2.08% | 0.44% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 55 | Andy Murray | 1731 | 70.87% | 56.01% | 37.66% | 25.12% | 11.02% | 3.31% | 1.29% |
| 56 | Nikoloz Basilashvili | 1576 | 29.13% | 17.72% | 8.24% | 3.80% | 1.03% | 0.17% | 0.04% |
| 57 | Reilly Opelka | 1593 | 56.89% | 34.08% | 15.71% | 6.74% | 1.93% | 0.35% | 0.08% |
| 58 | Dominik Koepfer | 1544 | 43.11% | 22.93% | 9.10% | 3.34% | 0.80% | 0.12% | 0.02% |
| 59 | Kwon Soon-Woo | 1552 | 61.09% | 28.85% | 11.75% | 4.43% | 1.09% | 0.17% | 0.03% |
| 60 | Daniel Masur | 1474 | 38.91% | 14.14% | 4.38% | 1.24% | 0.22% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 61 | Facundo Bagnis | 1456 | 35.69% | 8.79% | 3.21% | 0.84% | 0.14% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 62 | Miomir Kecmanovic | 1558 | 64.31% | 23.57% | 11.95% | 4.59% | 1.16% | 0.18% | 0.04% |
| 63 | John Millman | 1558 | 30.72% | 16.93% | 8.58% | 3.30% | 0.83% | 0.13% | 0.03% |
| 64 | Roberto Bautista Agut | 1699 | 69.28% | 50.71% | 35.33% | 20.25% | 8.14% | 2.20% | 0.77% |
| 65 | Matteo Berrettini | 1801 | 85.88% | 73.43% | 53.51% | 36.67% | 20.88% | 10.26% | 3.81% |
| 66 | Guido Pella | 1488 | 14.12% | 6.99% | 2.24% | 0.62% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 67 | Botic van de Zandschulp | 1516 | 58.24% | 12.53% | 4.44% | 1.37% | 0.32% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 68 | Gregoire Barrere | 1458 | 41.76% | 7.05% | 2.01% | 0.49% | 0.09% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 69 | Corentin Moutet | 1552 | 48.48% | 17.41% | 5.15% | 1.82% | 0.49% | 0.10% | 0.01% |
| 70 | Aljaz Bedene | 1562 | 51.52% | 19.22% | 5.89% | 2.16% | 0.60% | 0.13% | 0.02% |
| 71 | Yoshihito Nishioka | 1568 | 32.43% | 16.75% | 5.25% | 1.97% | 0.56% | 0.13% | 0.02% |
| 72 | John Isner | 1696 | 67.57% | 46.62% | 21.51% | 11.78% | 5.12% | 1.84% | 0.48% |
| 73 | Aslan Karatsev | 1649 | 57.44% | 38.45% | 17.20% | 7.11% | 2.68% | 0.82% | 0.18% |
| 74 | Jeremy Chardy | 1597 | 42.56% | 25.54% | 9.64% | 3.37% | 1.06% | 0.27% | 0.05% |
| 75 | Jaume Munar | 1516 | 47.16% | 16.33% | 4.55% | 1.18% | 0.28% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 76 | Ilya Ivashka | 1536 | 52.84% | 19.68% | 5.93% | 1.67% | 0.42% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| 77 | Kei Nishikori | 1720 | 72.47% | 41.44% | 27.90% | 14.11% | 6.56% | 2.55% | 0.72% |
| 78 | Alexei Popyrin | 1552 | 27.53% | 9.56% | 4.25% | 1.27% | 0.34% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 79 | Jordan Thompson | 1533 | 26.13% | 8.20% | 3.42% | 0.95% | 0.24% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 80 | Casper Ruud | 1713 | 73.87% | 40.80% | 27.11% | 13.46% | 6.14% | 2.34% | 0.65% |
| 81 | Felix Auger-Aliassime | 1667 | 72.38% | 45.93% | 24.58% | 9.59% | 4.18% | 1.36% | 0.32% |
| 82 | Thiago Monteiro | 1499 | 27.62% | 11.15% | 3.55% | 0.79% | 0.19% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 83 | Jo-Wilfried Tsonga | 1607 | 65.67% | 31.53% | 14.34% | 4.65% | 1.67% | 0.44% | 0.08% |
| 84 | Mikael Ymer | 1494 | 34.33% | 11.40% | 3.56% | 0.78% | 0.18% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 85 | Juan Ignacio Londero | 1443 | 41.26% | 8.25% | 2.34% | 0.42% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 86 | Gianluca Mager | 1505 | 58.74% | 15.40% | 5.51% | 1.25% | 0.30% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 87 | Nick Kyrgios | 1709 | 58.03% | 45.73% | 29.01% | 12.76% | 6.29% | 2.36% | 0.64% |
| 88 | Ugo Humbert | 1653 | 41.97% | 30.61% | 17.11% | 6.41% | 2.68% | 0.83% | 0.18% |
| 89 | Taylor Fritz | 1613 | 64.56% | 42.94% | 12.84% | 5.90% | 2.17% | 0.58% | 0.11% |
| 90 | Brandon Nakashima | 1509 | 35.44% | 18.58% | 3.84% | 1.24% | 0.31% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 91 | Steve Johnson | 1529 | 64.49% | 27.90% | 6.20% | 2.15% | 0.58% | 0.11% | 0.01% |
| 92 | Dennis Novak | 1425 | 35.51% | 10.59% | 1.56% | 0.36% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 93 | Tennys Sandgren | 1491 | 52.55% | 8.09% | 3.38% | 1.02% | 0.23% | 0.04% | 0.00% |
| 94 | Norbert Gombos | 1473 | 47.45% | 6.77% | 2.66% | 0.75% | 0.16% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 95 | Tallon Griekspoor | 1489 | 10.98% | 5.59% | 2.31% | 0.69% | 0.16% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 96 | Alexander Zverev | 1852 | 89.02% | 79.55% | 67.21% | 51.26% | 34.86% | 19.44% | 8.39% |
| 97 | Roger Federer | 1903 | 89.77% | 78.93% | 64.72% | 52.31% | 36.79% | 25.16% | 12.42% |
| 98 | Adrian Mannarino | 1526 | 10.23% | 4.77% | 1.70% | 0.60% | 0.16% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 99 | Richard Gasquet | 1593 | 69.22% | 13.14% | 5.85% | 2.58% | 0.85% | 0.25% | 0.04% |
| 100 | Yuichi Sugita | 1452 | 30.78% | 3.16% | 0.85% | 0.23% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 101 | Filip Krajinovic | 1615 | 67.99% | 30.30% | 7.55% | 3.55% | 1.26% | 0.40% | 0.08% |
| 102 | Alex Bolt | 1484 | 32.01% | 8.92% | 1.33% | 0.41% | 0.09% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 103 | Lucas Pouille | 1569 | 32.64% | 16.10% | 3.38% | 1.38% | 0.42% | 0.11% | 0.02% |
| 104 | Cameron Norrie | 1695 | 67.36% | 44.67% | 14.63% | 8.42% | 3.80% | 1.57% | 0.41% |
| 105 | Lorenzo Sonego | 1631 | 74.40% | 50.00% | 23.67% | 6.88% | 2.57% | 0.86% | 0.17% |
| 106 | Pedro Sousa | 1446 | 25.60% | 10.59% | 2.67% | 0.37% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 107 | Daniel Elahi Galan | 1513 | 51.89% | 20.88% | 6.79% | 1.25% | 0.31% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 108 | Federico Coria | 1500 | 48.11% | 18.53% | 5.75% | 1.00% | 0.23% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 109 | James Duckworth | 1455 | 42.04% | 8.76% | 3.11% | 0.45% | 0.09% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 110 | Radu Albot | 1511 | 57.96% | 15.34% | 6.57% | 1.20% | 0.29% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 111 | Sam Querrey | 1595 | 30.56% | 19.84% | 10.79% | 2.75% | 0.91% | 0.27% | 0.05% |
| 112 | Pablo Carreno Busta | 1738 | 69.44% | 56.06% | 40.63% | 16.63% | 8.40% | 3.94% | 1.19% |
| 113 | Hubert Hurkacz | 1595 | 45.12% | 26.54% | 12.83% | 3.92% | 1.07% | 0.31% | 0.05% |
| 114 | Lorenzo Musetti | 1629 | 54.88% | 34.82% | 18.49% | 6.33% | 1.96% | 0.65% | 0.13% |
| 115 | Emil Ruusuvuori | 1509 | 43.91% | 15.54% | 5.70% | 1.26% | 0.25% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 116 | Marcos Giron | 1551 | 56.09% | 23.09% | 9.78% | 2.55% | 0.59% | 0.15% | 0.02% |
| 117 | Mikhail Kukushkin | 1486 | 33.76% | 10.77% | 3.94% | 0.80% | 0.14% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 118 | Alexander Bublik | 1603 | 66.24% | 31.39% | 16.57% | 5.20% | 1.47% | 0.44% | 0.08% |
| 119 | Fernando Verdasco | 1531 | 31.80% | 14.43% | 6.15% | 1.49% | 0.32% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 120 | Grigor Dimitrov | 1663 | 68.20% | 43.40% | 26.54% | 10.14% | 3.52% | 1.32% | 0.30% |
| 121 | Marin Cilic | 1673 | 80.90% | 61.19% | 22.36% | 13.33% | 4.78% | 1.84% | 0.44% |
| 122 | Salvatore Caruso | 1422 | 19.10% | 8.07% | 1.13% | 0.30% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 123 | Marco Trungelliti | 1479 | 50.84% | 15.79% | 2.83% | 0.94% | 0.16% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 124 | Benjamin Bonzi | 1473 | 49.16% | 14.95% | 2.61% | 0.85% | 0.14% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 125 | Tommy Paul | 1567 | 54.95% | 11.33% | 5.27% | 2.37% | 0.58% | 0.15% | 0.02% |
| 126 | Carlos Alcaraz | 1533 | 45.05% | 8.01% | 3.36% | 1.35% | 0.29% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 127 | Jan-Lennard Struff | 1603 | 18.08% | 10.36% | 5.30% | 2.64% | 0.74% | 0.22% | 0.04% |
| 128 | Daniil Medvedev | 1865 | 81.92% | 70.31% | 57.13% | 46.52% | 27.68% | 17.66% | 7.90% |
