Tomorrow, the 3rd Grand Slam tournament of the year, Wimbledon, begins. Let's take a look at the draw for this tournament, and my predictions for the tournament, including who's most likely to win, and full probabilities for how likely each player is to make it to each round.
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- Ashleigh Barty is the most likely player to win the tournament, with a 23.14% chance of winning the whole thing, with Aryna Sabalenka next at 10.71%. The 3rd most likely is Serena Williams with 8.86% and Garbine Muguruza is the 4th favourite with 5.11%
- Elise Mertens has the easiest overall draw, as she is 1.19 percentage points more likely to win the tournament than expected. On the other hand, Victoria Azarenka has a tough draw. She is 1.19 percentage points less likely to win the tournament than expected.
- The toughest 1st round draw went to Carla Suarez Navarro, as she's 44.74 percentage points less likely to win than a player of her rank is expected to win. Madison Brengle got the easiest 1st round draw, as she's 34.25 percentage points more likely to make it to round 2 than her ranking would expect.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # | Name | ELO | R1 % | R2 % | R3 % | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ashleigh Barty | 1912 | 86.34% | 81.36% | 70.12% | 57.01% | 43.20% | 32.17% | 23.14% |
| 2 | Carla Suarez Navarro | 1592 | 13.66% | 9.86% | 5.03% | 2.15% | 0.74% | 0.25% | 0.08% |
| 3 | Anna Blinkova | 1447 | 57.07% | 5.52% | 1.75% | 0.44% | 0.08% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 4 | Timea Babos | 1397 | 42.93% | 3.26% | 0.85% | 0.17% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 5 | Olga Govortsova | 1417 | 36.21% | 8.43% | 0.96% | 0.21% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 6 | Coco Vandeweghe | 1515 | 63.79% | 22.18% | 3.73% | 1.23% | 0.31% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 7 | Katerina Siniakova | 1592 | 41.98% | 27.46% | 6.15% | 2.64% | 0.91% | 0.31% | 0.09% |
| 8 | Johanna Konta | 1649 | 58.02% | 41.92% | 11.41% | 5.76% | 2.40% | 0.98% | 0.37% |
| 9 | Kiki Bertens | 1659 | 65.85% | 40.98% | 21.32% | 6.65% | 2.87% | 1.21% | 0.47% |
| 10 | Marta Kostyuk | 1545 | 34.15% | 15.80% | 5.90% | 1.23% | 0.35% | 0.10% | 0.02% |
| 11 | Anastasija Sevastova | 1602 | 61.17% | 28.99% | 12.91% | 3.32% | 1.18% | 0.41% | 0.13% |
| 12 | Zarina Diyas | 1523 | 38.83% | 14.23% | 4.93% | 0.94% | 0.25% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 13 | Andrea Petkovic | 1527 | 56.48% | 17.02% | 6.67% | 1.30% | 0.35% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 14 | Jasmine Paolini | 1482 | 43.52% | 10.98% | 3.66% | 0.59% | 0.13% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 15 | Clara Tauson | 1522 | 23.32% | 12.15% | 4.68% | 0.89% | 0.23% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 16 | Barbora Krejcikova | 1729 | 76.68% | 59.86% | 39.95% | 15.46% | 8.17% | 4.22% | 2.03% |
| 17 | Victoria Azarenka | 1766 | 85.16% | 62.94% | 39.91% | 25.00% | 11.37% | 6.45% | 3.43% |
| 18 | Kateryna Kozlova | 1463 | 14.84% | 5.06% | 1.32% | 0.31% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 19 | Sorana Cirstea | 1622 | 67.88% | 24.74% | 11.05% | 4.75% | 1.38% | 0.52% | 0.17% |
| 20 | Samantha Murray | 1492 | 32.12% | 7.26% | 2.11% | 0.57% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 21 | Emma Raducanu | 1488 | 64.02% | 14.62% | 3.61% | 0.96% | 0.16% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 22 | Vitalia Diatchenko | 1388 | 35.98% | 5.17% | 0.83% | 0.14% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 23 | Marketa Vondrousova | 1629 | 34.04% | 24.87% | 10.16% | 4.46% | 1.33% | 0.51% | 0.18% |
| 24 | Anett Kontaveit | 1744 | 65.96% | 55.34% | 31.01% | 18.50% | 7.90% | 4.24% | 2.12% |
| 25 | Daria Kasatkina | 1691 | 73.06% | 40.78% | 22.54% | 10.71% | 3.91% | 1.82% | 0.78% |
| 26 | Patricia Maria Tig | 1517 | 26.94% | 8.71% | 2.87% | 0.75% | 0.15% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 27 | Leylah Annie Fernandez | 1568 | 33.25% | 13.15% | 5.14% | 1.63% | 0.39% | 0.12% | 0.03% |
| 28 | Jelena Ostapenko | 1689 | 66.75% | 37.36% | 20.57% | 9.72% | 3.53% | 1.63% | 0.69% |
| 29 | Greet Minnen | 1471 | 41.10% | 9.19% | 2.37% | 0.51% | 0.08% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 30 | Ajla Tomljanovic | 1533 | 58.90% | 17.09% | 5.64% | 1.57% | 0.33% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 31 | Alize Cornet | 1601 | 31.64% | 19.97% | 8.38% | 3.00% | 0.81% | 0.28% | 0.09% |
| 32 | Bianca Andreescu | 1735 | 68.36% | 53.75% | 32.49% | 17.41% | 7.26% | 3.82% | 1.87% |
| 33 | Elina Svitolina | 1752 | 78.20% | 55.46% | 37.93% | 25.08% | 13.55% | 6.03% | 3.09% |
| 34 | Alison Van Uytvanck | 1530 | 21.80% | 8.84% | 3.40% | 1.24% | 0.33% | 0.07% | 0.02% |
| 35 | Magda Linette | 1575 | 44.36% | 14.64% | 6.51% | 2.75% | 0.86% | 0.21% | 0.06% |
| 36 | Amanda Anisimova | 1614 | 55.64% | 21.05% | 10.51% | 5.01% | 1.81% | 0.51% | 0.17% |
| 37 | Lesia Tsurenko | 1539 | 38.69% | 15.32% | 4.91% | 1.84% | 0.51% | 0.11% | 0.03% |
| 38 | Yulia Putintseva | 1619 | 61.31% | 30.87% | 13.00% | 6.29% | 2.31% | 0.66% | 0.22% |
| 39 | Aliona Bolsova | 1478 | 25.73% | 8.97% | 2.26% | 0.68% | 0.15% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 40 | Paula Badosa | 1662 | 74.27% | 44.84% | 21.48% | 11.66% | 4.92% | 1.65% | 0.64% |
| 41 | Karolina Muchova | 1683 | 69.80% | 43.74% | 26.59% | 13.93% | 6.25% | 2.24% | 0.94% |
| 42 | Zhang Shuai | 1537 | 30.20% | 12.72% | 5.29% | 1.75% | 0.48% | 0.10% | 0.02% |
| 43 | Jil Teichmann | 1571 | 44.47% | 18.06% | 8.32% | 3.11% | 0.96% | 0.23% | 0.06% |
| 44 | Camila Giorgi | 1610 | 55.53% | 25.47% | 13.04% | 5.53% | 1.97% | 0.54% | 0.18% |
| 45 | Kristyna Pliskova | 1457 | 42.37% | 11.54% | 3.22% | 0.78% | 0.15% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 46 | Danka Kovinic | 1511 | 57.63% | 19.23% | 6.61% | 1.98% | 0.49% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 47 | Ana Bogdan | 1492 | 24.96% | 12.64% | 4.06% | 1.13% | 0.26% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 48 | Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova | 1684 | 75.04% | 56.59% | 32.86% | 17.25% | 7.76% | 2.79% | 1.17% |
| 49 | Belinda Bencic | 1665 | 72.04% | 54.31% | 28.04% | 11.84% | 5.92% | 2.00% | 0.79% |
| 50 | Kaja Juvan | 1500 | 27.96% | 15.23% | 4.73% | 1.12% | 0.32% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 51 | Ellen Perez | 1435 | 41.60% | 11.02% | 2.66% | 0.48% | 0.10% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 52 | Clara Burel | 1494 | 58.40% | 19.44% | 5.89% | 1.36% | 0.38% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 53 | Elena Vesnina | 1559 | 65.56% | 22.12% | 10.38% | 3.08% | 1.10% | 0.25% | 0.07% |
| 54 | Martina Trevisan | 1447 | 34.44% | 7.58% | 2.48% | 0.47% | 0.11% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 55 | Francesca Jones | 1468 | 18.16% | 7.74% | 2.72% | 0.56% | 0.14% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 56 | Coco Gauff | 1729 | 81.84% | 62.56% | 43.12% | 21.78% | 12.81% | 5.33% | 2.56% |
| 57 | Angelique Kerber | 1674 | 74.82% | 45.53% | 19.01% | 10.15% | 5.20% | 1.81% | 0.74% |
| 58 | Nina Stojanovic | 1485 | 25.18% | 8.65% | 1.91% | 0.56% | 0.15% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 59 | Sara Sorribes Tormo | 1590 | 47.84% | 21.41% | 6.89% | 2.90% | 1.15% | 0.29% | 0.09% |
| 60 | Ana Konjuh | 1605 | 52.16% | 24.41% | 8.25% | 3.64% | 1.52% | 0.41% | 0.13% |
| 61 | Nao Hibino | 1464 | 44.65% | 7.10% | 2.06% | 0.56% | 0.14% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 62 | Bernada Pera | 1501 | 55.35% | 10.37% | 3.47% | 1.08% | 0.31% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 63 | Aliaksandra Sasnovich | 1557 | 17.98% | 10.85% | 4.43% | 1.69% | 0.60% | 0.13% | 0.04% |
| 64 | Serena Williams | 1821 | 82.02% | 71.68% | 53.98% | 38.75% | 27.29% | 14.60% | 8.86% |
| 65 | Karolina Pliskova | 1709 | 68.88% | 47.53% | 33.10% | 18.17% | 9.42% | 4.16% | 1.65% |
| 66 | Tamara Zidansek | 1571 | 31.12% | 15.60% | 7.97% | 2.91% | 0.97% | 0.26% | 0.06% |
| 67 | Donna Vekic | 1577 | 51.97% | 19.61% | 10.17% | 3.79% | 1.29% | 0.36% | 0.09% |
| 68 | Anastasia Potapova | 1563 | 48.03% | 17.26% | 8.61% | 3.06% | 0.99% | 0.26% | 0.06% |
| 69 | Ann Li | 1590 | 56.25% | 31.44% | 13.71% | 5.34% | 1.91% | 0.56% | 0.14% |
| 70 | Nadia Podoroska | 1546 | 43.75% | 21.76% | 8.22% | 2.75% | 0.84% | 0.21% | 0.04% |
| 71 | Tereza Martincova | 1491 | 37.23% | 14.43% | 4.46% | 1.21% | 0.30% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 72 | Alison Riske | 1582 | 62.77% | 32.37% | 13.76% | 5.22% | 1.81% | 0.51% | 0.13% |
| 73 | Jessica Pegula | 1694 | 64.87% | 42.87% | 22.83% | 13.89% | 6.92% | 2.92% | 1.11% |
| 74 | Caroline Garcia | 1588 | 35.13% | 18.05% | 7.14% | 3.31% | 1.18% | 0.34% | 0.09% |
| 75 | Liudmila Samsonova | 1560 | 45.13% | 16.51% | 5.96% | 2.53% | 0.81% | 0.21% | 0.05% |
| 76 | Kaia Kanepi | 1594 | 54.87% | 22.57% | 9.09% | 4.28% | 1.55% | 0.46% | 0.12% |
| 77 | Kristie Ahn | 1470 | 44.58% | 9.31% | 2.69% | 0.83% | 0.19% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 78 | Heather Watson | 1508 | 55.42% | 13.60% | 4.56% | 1.62% | 0.43% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 79 | Sloane Stephens | 1591 | 27.76% | 17.75% | 7.91% | 3.69% | 1.33% | 0.39% | 0.10% |
| 80 | Petra Kvitova | 1757 | 72.24% | 59.34% | 39.82% | 27.38% | 16.00% | 8.11% | 3.72% |
| 81 | Elise Mertens | 1756 | 86.59% | 73.77% | 51.98% | 32.20% | 20.03% | 10.11% | 4.63% |
| 82 | Harriet Dart | 1432 | 13.41% | 6.32% | 1.87% | 0.40% | 0.09% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 83 | Zhu Lin | 1460 | 52.66% | 10.87% | 3.58% | 0.87% | 0.22% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 84 | Mona Barthel | 1442 | 47.34% | 9.05% | 2.79% | 0.63% | 0.14% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 85 | Jodie Burrage | 1480 | 48.21% | 15.01% | 4.03% | 1.06% | 0.28% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 86 | Lauren Davis | 1492 | 51.79% | 16.87% | 4.74% | 1.31% | 0.37% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 87 | Katie Swan | 1437 | 20.43% | 8.77% | 2.01% | 0.44% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 88 | Madison Keys | 1673 | 79.57% | 59.34% | 29.01% | 14.73% | 7.53% | 2.97% | 1.05% |
| 89 | Veronika Kudermetova | 1686 | 71.51% | 41.66% | 23.59% | 11.96% | 6.33% | 2.60% | 0.96% |
| 90 | Viktorija Golubic | 1526 | 28.49% | 10.44% | 3.84% | 1.18% | 0.38% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 91 | Polona Hercog | 1509 | 28.32% | 9.21% | 3.21% | 0.93% | 0.28% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 92 | Danielle Collins | 1670 | 71.68% | 38.69% | 21.14% | 10.29% | 5.22% | 2.04% | 0.71% |
| 93 | Madison Brengle | 1434 | 51.90% | 11.44% | 2.66% | 0.57% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 94 | Christina McHale | 1420 | 48.10% | 10.04% | 2.21% | 0.45% | 0.09% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 95 | Wang Xinyu | 1448 | 17.64% | 9.34% | 2.31% | 0.53% | 0.12% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 96 | Sofia Kenin | 1715 | 82.36% | 69.19% | 41.05% | 22.43% | 12.76% | 5.74% | 2.33% |
| 97 | Iga Swiatek | 1758 | 74.61% | 57.14% | 44.31% | 25.03% | 12.99% | 7.59% | 3.50% |
| 98 | Hsieh Su-Wei | 1571 | 25.39% | 13.38% | 7.31% | 2.36% | 0.67% | 0.22% | 0.05% |
| 99 | Marie Bouzkova | 1556 | 50.99% | 15.23% | 8.00% | 2.44% | 0.66% | 0.21% | 0.05% |
| 100 | Vera Zvonareva | 1549 | 49.01% | 14.25% | 7.35% | 2.18% | 0.57% | 0.17% | 0.04% |
| 101 | Irina-Camelia Begu | 1519 | 57.65% | 25.69% | 7.83% | 2.07% | 0.48% | 0.13% | 0.02% |
| 102 | Katie Volynets | 1465 | 42.35% | 15.82% | 3.91% | 0.83% | 0.15% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 103 | Varvara Gracheva | 1468 | 32.01% | 14.74% | 3.69% | 0.79% | 0.15% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 104 | Petra Martic | 1599 | 67.99% | 43.75% | 17.61% | 6.27% | 1.98% | 0.73% | 0.20% |
| 105 | Ons Jabeur | 1727 | 74.14% | 55.83% | 29.03% | 17.63% | 8.41% | 4.55% | 1.91% |
| 106 | Rebecca Peterson | 1544 | 25.86% | 13.37% | 3.91% | 1.45% | 0.37% | 0.11% | 0.02% |
| 107 | Mihaela Buzarnescu | 1498 | 41.60% | 11.17% | 2.73% | 0.86% | 0.18% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 108 | Venus Williams | 1557 | 58.40% | 19.63% | 6.02% | 2.33% | 0.63% | 0.20% | 0.04% |
| 109 | Svetlana Kuznetsova | 1614 | 72.94% | 23.93% | 10.99% | 5.05% | 1.68% | 0.65% | 0.18% |
| 110 | Lesley Pattinama Kerkhove | 1441 | 27.06% | 4.36% | 1.10% | 0.28% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 111 | Fiona Ferro | 1579 | 22.63% | 11.65% | 4.81% | 2.00% | 0.59% | 0.20% | 0.05% |
| 112 | Garbine Muguruza | 1792 | 77.37% | 60.07% | 41.41% | 28.42% | 16.03% | 10.09% | 5.11% |
| 113 | Maria Sakkari | 1754 | 83.03% | 62.78% | 43.12% | 22.25% | 12.45% | 7.20% | 3.27% |
| 114 | Arantxa Rus | 1478 | 16.97% | 6.69% | 2.25% | 0.47% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 115 | Shelby Rogers | 1590 | 64.01% | 22.00% | 10.51% | 3.34% | 1.15% | 0.41% | 0.11% |
| 116 | Samantha Stosur | 1490 | 35.99% | 8.52% | 2.98% | 0.65% | 0.15% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 117 | Misaki Doi | 1436 | 43.99% | 10.36% | 2.25% | 0.39% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 118 | Claire Liu | 1478 | 56.01% | 15.69% | 4.04% | 0.84% | 0.19% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 119 | Kristina Mladenovic | 1539 | 29.17% | 17.84% | 5.77% | 1.52% | 0.44% | 0.13% | 0.03% |
| 120 | Elena Rybakina | 1693 | 70.83% | 56.11% | 29.09% | 12.77% | 6.11% | 3.02% | 1.14% |
| 121 | Ekaterina Alexandrova | 1663 | 62.66% | 44.17% | 16.58% | 7.98% | 3.50% | 1.58% | 0.54% |
| 122 | Laura Siegemund | 1573 | 37.34% | 22.01% | 6.16% | 2.25% | 0.73% | 0.24% | 0.06% |
| 123 | Maria Camila Osorio Serrano | 1544 | 63.86% | 24.40% | 6.18% | 2.04% | 0.60% | 0.18% | 0.04% |
| 124 | Anna Kalinskaya | 1446 | 36.14% | 9.42% | 1.63% | 0.37% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 125 | Danielle Lao | 1442 | 38.96% | 5.33% | 1.61% | 0.36% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 126 | Katie Boulter | 1520 | 61.04% | 11.64% | 4.65% | 1.41% | 0.38% | 0.10% | 0.02% |
| 127 | Monica Niculescu | 1468 | 11.01% | 5.16% | 1.71% | 0.42% | 0.09% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 128 | Aryna Sabalenka | 1831 | 88.99% | 77.87% | 61.48% | 42.93% | 28.31% | 19.21% | 10.71% |
