The 1st Grand Slam of the season is starting on Monday, so I'm here with a preview and predictions for how the Men's bracket will turn out. After the jump I present a table with percentages for all 128 players and how they will do.
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But before the full table, some highlights I want to pick out.
- Rafael Nadal is the most likely to win the tournament, with a 28.56% chance of winning the whole thing, with Alexander Zverev next at 21.51%. The 3rd most likely is Daniil Medvedev with 18.26% and Stefanos Tsitsipas is 4th with 5%
- Gael Monfils has the easiest overall draw, as he is 0.24 percentage points more likely to win the tournament than expected. John Isner, who is 0.2 percentage points less likely to win the tournament than expected, has the toughest overall draw.
- The toughest 1st round draw went to Marcos Giron, as he's 49.6 percentage points less likely to win than a player of his rank is expected to win. Stefan Kozlov got the easiest 1st round draw, as he's 32.07 percentage points more likely to make it to round 2 than his ranking would expect.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # | Name | ELO | R1 % | R2 % | R3 % | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salvatore Caruso | 1411 | 37.72% | 10.10% | 3.04% | 0.76% | 0.12% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 2 | Miomir Kecmanovic | 1499 | 62.28% | 23.10% | 9.54% | 3.32% | 0.79% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| 3 | Mikhail Kukushkin | 1463 | 26.49% | 13.15% | 4.81% | 1.47% | 0.30% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 4 | Tommy Paul | 1641 | 73.51% | 53.65% | 32.68% | 17.55% | 7.04% | 1.29% | 0.39% |
| 5 | Oscar Otte | 1515 | 54.71% | 21.40% | 9.36% | 3.45% | 0.88% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 6 | Tseng Chun-hsin | 1482 | 45.29% | 15.74% | 6.21% | 2.04% | 0.45% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 7 | Sam Querrey | 1540 | 37.93% | 21.12% | 9.93% | 3.99% | 1.12% | 0.13% | 0.03% |
| 8 | Lorenzo Sonego | 1626 | 62.07% | 41.74% | 24.44% | 12.63% | 4.82% | 0.83% | 0.24% |
| 9 | Gael Monfils | 1701 | 75.53% | 54.91% | 37.54% | 24.97% | 12.02% | 2.80% | 1.03% |
| 10 | Federico Coria | 1505 | 24.47% | 11.44% | 4.80% | 1.93% | 0.47% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 11 | Alexander Bublik | 1563 | 63.33% | 23.90% | 11.93% | 5.73% | 1.75% | 0.23% | 0.05% |
| 12 | Ernesto Escobedo | 1468 | 36.67% | 9.75% | 3.60% | 1.27% | 0.26% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 13 | Federico Delbonis | 1506 | 43.56% | 17.84% | 6.18% | 2.49% | 0.61% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 14 | Pedro Martinez | 1551 | 56.44% | 26.54% | 10.70% | 4.96% | 1.45% | 0.18% | 0.04% |
| 15 | Facundo Bagnis | 1437 | 26.03% | 9.58% | 2.56% | 0.81% | 0.15% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 16 | Christian Garin | 1618 | 73.97% | 46.04% | 22.70% | 12.64% | 4.71% | 0.79% | 0.22% |
| 17 | Cameron Norrie | 1737 | 64.28% | 49.20% | 29.94% | 16.43% | 10.95% | 2.92% | 1.21% |
| 18 | Sebastian Korda | 1635 | 35.72% | 23.03% | 10.90% | 4.54% | 2.41% | 0.43% | 0.13% |
| 19 | Corentin Moutet | 1540 | 52.61% | 15.12% | 5.31% | 1.61% | 0.65% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 20 | Lucas Pouille | 1522 | 47.39% | 12.65% | 4.16% | 1.18% | 0.45% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 21 | Tallon Griekspoor | 1519 | 41.59% | 12.05% | 3.86% | 1.08% | 0.40% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 22 | Fabio Fognini | 1578 | 58.41% | 20.93% | 8.24% | 2.85% | 1.29% | 0.18% | 0.04% |
| 23 | Tomas Martin Etcheverry | 1489 | 19.90% | 8.16% | 2.34% | 0.58% | 0.20% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 24 | Pablo Carreno Busta | 1731 | 80.10% | 58.86% | 35.25% | 19.08% | 12.57% | 3.28% | 1.34% |
| 25 | Carlos Alcaraz | 1660 | 72.11% | 46.19% | 19.90% | 9.46% | 5.36% | 1.07% | 0.34% |
| 26 | Alejandro Tabilo | 1495 | 27.89% | 11.45% | 2.86% | 0.77% | 0.26% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 27 | Marton Fucsovics | 1589 | 61.13% | 28.37% | 9.84% | 3.75% | 1.76% | 0.26% | 0.06% |
| 28 | Dusan Lajovic | 1511 | 38.87% | 13.99% | 3.69% | 1.06% | 0.38% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 29 | Stefan Kozlov | 1425 | 42.61% | 6.08% | 1.66% | 0.33% | 0.09% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 30 | Jiri Vesely | 1476 | 57.39% | 10.40% | 3.47% | 0.86% | 0.28% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 31 | Brandon Nakashima | 1603 | 24.39% | 17.10% | 8.60% | 3.43% | 1.67% | 0.26% | 0.07% |
| 32 | Matteo Berrettini | 1800 | 75.61% | 66.43% | 49.98% | 32.99% | 24.37% | 8.11% | 4.02% |
| 33 | Alexander Zverev | 1954 | 93.27% | 86.15% | 77.70% | 67.98% | 38.61% | 31.17% | 21.51% |
| 34 | Daniel Altmaier | 1498 | 6.73% | 3.17% | 1.33% | 0.46% | 0.06% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 35 | Feliciano Lopez | 1475 | 39.82% | 3.47% | 1.36% | 0.43% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 36 | John Millman | 1547 | 60.18% | 7.22% | 3.52% | 1.45% | 0.24% | 0.07% | 0.02% |
| 37 | Radu Albot | 1466 | 47.24% | 15.81% | 1.71% | 0.52% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 38 | Yoshihito Nishioka | 1485 | 52.76% | 18.93% | 2.21% | 0.73% | 0.09% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 39 | Aleksandar Vukic | 1488 | 30.26% | 15.64% | 1.85% | 0.62% | 0.08% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 40 | Lloyd Harris | 1633 | 69.74% | 49.62% | 10.32% | 5.48% | 1.25% | 0.52% | 0.15% |
| 41 | Reilly Opelka | 1627 | 47.93% | 29.86% | 15.99% | 3.73% | 0.83% | 0.34% | 0.10% |
| 42 | Kevin Anderson | 1641 | 52.07% | 33.42% | 18.57% | 4.55% | 1.07% | 0.46% | 0.14% |
| 43 | Dominik Koepfer | 1567 | 60.26% | 24.41% | 11.07% | 2.09% | 0.37% | 0.13% | 0.03% |
| 44 | Carlos Taberner | 1495 | 39.74% | 12.31% | 4.40% | 0.63% | 0.08% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 45 | Holger Rune | 1475 | 36.54% | 10.86% | 3.57% | 0.47% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 46 | Kwon Soon-Woo | 1571 | 63.46% | 26.65% | 12.19% | 2.33% | 0.42% | 0.14% | 0.03% |
| 47 | Laslo Djere | 1546 | 33.12% | 17.05% | 7.22% | 1.26% | 0.21% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 48 | Denis Shapovalov | 1669 | 66.88% | 45.44% | 26.99% | 7.26% | 1.88% | 0.88% | 0.29% |
| 49 | Hubert Hurkacz | 1695 | 73.13% | 52.67% | 32.88% | 8.39% | 2.71% | 1.36% | 0.49% |
| 50 | Egor Gerasimov | 1521 | 26.87% | 13.09% | 5.13% | 0.68% | 0.12% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 51 | James Duckworth | 1548 | 55.85% | 20.36% | 8.71% | 1.29% | 0.25% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 52 | Adrian Mannarino | 1508 | 44.15% | 13.88% | 5.20% | 0.65% | 0.11% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 53 | Nikola Milojevic | 1506 | 45.86% | 15.43% | 5.46% | 0.68% | 0.11% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 54 | Mackenzie McDonald | 1535 | 54.14% | 20.14% | 7.86% | 1.11% | 0.20% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 55 | Jaume Munar | 1474 | 23.67% | 10.22% | 3.22% | 0.35% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 56 | Aslan Karatsev | 1678 | 76.33% | 54.20% | 31.54% | 7.57% | 2.32% | 1.11% | 0.38% |
| 57 | Karen Khachanov | 1684 | 76.66% | 55.79% | 12.11% | 6.96% | 2.17% | 1.06% | 0.37% |
| 58 | Denis Kudla | 1478 | 23.34% | 10.55% | 1.02% | 0.31% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 59 | Benjamin Bonzi | 1461 | 38.42% | 10.65% | 0.95% | 0.27% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 60 | Peter Gojowczyk | 1543 | 61.58% | 23.01% | 2.91% | 1.12% | 0.21% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 61 | Yannick Hanfmann | 1516 | 41.88% | 3.63% | 1.38% | 0.48% | 0.08% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 62 | Thanasi Kokkinakis | 1573 | 58.12% | 6.53% | 2.96% | 1.26% | 0.27% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 63 | Marcos Giron | 1581 | 8.23% | 4.49% | 2.09% | 0.91% | 0.20% | 0.07% | 0.02% |
| 64 | Rafael Nadal | 2000 | 91.77% | 85.35% | 76.58% | 67.96% | 45.74% | 38.60% | 28.56% |
| 65 | Casper Ruud | 1796 | 80.74% | 59.53% | 47.81% | 30.84% | 18.86% | 9.31% | 3.43% |
| 66 | Alex Molcan | 1547 | 19.26% | 7.97% | 4.01% | 1.28% | 0.38% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| 67 | Ilya Ivashka | 1655 | 72.01% | 26.92% | 17.47% | 8.00% | 3.40% | 1.10% | 0.25% |
| 68 | Pablo Andujar | 1491 | 27.99% | 5.59% | 2.38% | 0.62% | 0.14% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 69 | Andreas Seppi | 1475 | 53.17% | 18.72% | 3.93% | 0.95% | 0.21% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 70 | Kamil Majchrzak | 1453 | 46.83% | 15.18% | 2.90% | 0.64% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 71 | Lorenzo Musetti | 1535 | 39.04% | 23.41% | 6.28% | 1.93% | 0.54% | 0.11% | 0.02% |
| 72 | Alex De Minaur | 1613 | 60.96% | 42.70% | 15.22% | 6.11% | 2.27% | 0.63% | 0.12% |
| 73 | Nikoloz Basilashvili | 1630 | 40.21% | 29.21% | 12.43% | 5.27% | 2.07% | 0.61% | 0.12% |
| 74 | Andy Murray | 1699 | 59.79% | 47.70% | 24.58% | 12.60% | 6.09% | 2.28% | 0.60% |
| 75 | Taro Daniel | 1442 | 45.37% | 9.67% | 2.10% | 0.45% | 0.09% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 76 | Marcelo Tomas Barrios Vera | 1474 | 54.63% | 13.42% | 3.32% | 0.82% | 0.18% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 77 | Steve Johnson | 1533 | 48.36% | 13.03% | 4.92% | 1.51% | 0.42% | 0.09% | 0.01% |
| 78 | Jordan Thompson | 1544 | 51.64% | 14.52% | 5.69% | 1.82% | 0.53% | 0.11% | 0.02% |
| 79 | Joao Sousa | 1383 | 10.55% | 3.06% | 0.65% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 80 | Jannik Sinner | 1754 | 89.45% | 69.39% | 46.30% | 27.05% | 15.07% | 6.66% | 2.14% |
| 81 | Roberto Bautista Agut | 1646 | 77.70% | 52.94% | 26.78% | 10.71% | 4.38% | 1.38% | 0.30% |
| 82 | Stefano Travaglia | 1430 | 22.30% | 8.51% | 2.02% | 0.36% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 83 | Philipp Kohlschreiber | 1533 | 56.21% | 23.03% | 8.16% | 2.21% | 0.60% | 0.12% | 0.02% |
| 84 | Marco Cecchinato | 1490 | 43.79% | 15.53% | 4.69% | 1.07% | 0.25% | 0.04% | 0.00% |
| 85 | Frances Tiafoe | 1638 | 72.18% | 35.32% | 20.52% | 7.98% | 3.17% | 0.97% | 0.20% |
| 86 | Marco Trungelliti | 1472 | 27.82% | 7.94% | 2.85% | 0.61% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 87 | Maximilian Marterer | 1416 | 17.32% | 4.76% | 1.39% | 0.23% | 0.04% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 88 | Taylor Fritz | 1688 | 82.68% | 51.98% | 33.60% | 15.19% | 7.04% | 2.55% | 0.65% |
| 89 | Grigor Dimitrov | 1698 | 75.77% | 58.75% | 26.60% | 15.76% | 7.53% | 2.81% | 0.74% |
| 90 | Jiri Lehecka | 1500 | 24.23% | 12.73% | 2.99% | 0.98% | 0.23% | 0.04% | 0.00% |
| 91 | Benoit Paire | 1464 | 45.06% | 11.92% | 2.42% | 0.69% | 0.14% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 92 | Thiago Monteiro | 1498 | 54.94% | 16.61% | 3.88% | 1.26% | 0.30% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 93 | Sebastian Baez | 1488 | 42.18% | 7.64% | 2.60% | 0.81% | 0.18% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 94 | Albert Ramos Vinolas | 1542 | 57.82% | 13.17% | 5.38% | 2.04% | 0.58% | 0.12% | 0.02% |
| 95 | Mikael Ymer | 1541 | 17.02% | 9.03% | 3.67% | 1.39% | 0.39% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| 96 | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 1816 | 82.98% | 70.16% | 52.46% | 38.70% | 24.57% | 12.75% | 5.00% |
| 97 | Andrey Rublev | 1758 | 81.93% | 67.08% | 45.42% | 30.89% | 13.21% | 7.01% | 2.29% |
| 98 | Gianluca Mager | 1496 | 18.07% | 9.03% | 3.12% | 1.03% | 0.17% | 0.04% | 0.00% |
| 99 | Roberto Carballes Baena | 1482 | 46.37% | 10.48% | 3.46% | 1.09% | 0.17% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 100 | Ricardas Berankis | 1508 | 53.63% | 13.42% | 4.83% | 1.67% | 0.29% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 101 | Timofey Skatov | 1494 | 55.31% | 16.39% | 4.64% | 1.52% | 0.25% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 102 | Norbert Gombos | 1457 | 44.69% | 11.48% | 2.83% | 0.80% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 103 | Emilio Gomez | 1457 | 19.78% | 9.33% | 2.30% | 0.65% | 0.09% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 104 | Marin Cilic | 1700 | 80.22% | 62.80% | 33.39% | 20.24% | 7.29% | 3.30% | 0.88% |
| 105 | Daniel Evans | 1626 | 56.54% | 33.32% | 16.31% | 6.88% | 1.93% | 0.68% | 0.14% |
| 106 | David Goffin | 1580 | 43.46% | 22.81% | 9.75% | 3.56% | 0.84% | 0.25% | 0.04% |
| 107 | Alexei Popyrin | 1538 | 43.65% | 17.62% | 6.55% | 2.06% | 0.41% | 0.10% | 0.01% |
| 108 | Arthur Rinderknech | 1582 | 56.35% | 26.26% | 11.30% | 4.15% | 0.99% | 0.30% | 0.05% |
| 109 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 1587 | 65.44% | 25.77% | 12.84% | 4.79% | 1.16% | 0.36% | 0.06% |
| 110 | Alex Bolt | 1476 | 34.56% | 8.97% | 3.09% | 0.77% | 0.12% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 111 | Emil Ruusuvuori | 1567 | 30.81% | 16.17% | 7.59% | 2.65% | 0.59% | 0.17% | 0.03% |
| 112 | Felix Auger-Aliassime | 1707 | 69.19% | 49.09% | 32.58% | 17.25% | 6.34% | 2.92% | 0.80% |
| 113 | Diego Schwartzman | 1725 | 69.14% | 51.58% | 32.70% | 11.91% | 6.72% | 3.26% | 0.95% |
| 114 | Filip Krajinovic | 1585 | 30.86% | 17.64% | 7.89% | 1.78% | 0.67% | 0.20% | 0.03% |
| 115 | Christopher O'Connell | 1452 | 33.20% | 7.20% | 2.03% | 0.27% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 116 | Hugo Gaston | 1574 | 66.80% | 23.58% | 10.19% | 2.20% | 0.80% | 0.23% | 0.04% |
| 117 | Tomas Machac | 1490 | 44.18% | 12.07% | 3.62% | 0.56% | 0.15% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 118 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | 1530 | 55.82% | 17.90% | 6.24% | 1.14% | 0.35% | 0.09% | 0.01% |
| 119 | Maxime Cressy | 1579 | 32.49% | 19.28% | 7.90% | 1.74% | 0.64% | 0.19% | 0.03% |
| 120 | John Isner | 1706 | 67.51% | 50.75% | 29.43% | 10.09% | 5.42% | 2.49% | 0.68% |
| 121 | Ugo Humbert | 1634 | 58.70% | 34.07% | 7.78% | 3.65% | 1.60% | 0.58% | 0.12% |
| 122 | Richard Gasquet | 1572 | 41.30% | 20.38% | 3.65% | 1.42% | 0.51% | 0.15% | 0.02% |
| 123 | Botic van de Zandschulp | 1594 | 55.33% | 26.50% | 5.18% | 2.15% | 0.83% | 0.26% | 0.05% |
| 124 | Jan-Lennard Struff | 1556 | 44.67% | 19.04% | 3.19% | 1.17% | 0.40% | 0.11% | 0.02% |
| 125 | Liam Broady | 1498 | 26.92% | 2.90% | 1.06% | 0.31% | 0.09% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 126 | Nick Kyrgios | 1672 | 73.08% | 16.36% | 9.93% | 5.18% | 2.55% | 1.05% | 0.25% |
| 127 | Henri Laaksonen | 1511 | 8.03% | 2.78% | 1.06% | 0.33% | 0.09% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 128 | Daniil Medvedev | 1934 | 91.97% | 77.96% | 68.14% | 56.10% | 45.14% | 33.84% | 18.26% |
