The 1st round of the Australian Open has finished, so let's take a look at how those results impacted my ratings of the players still in, and also how well I expect them to do for the rest of the tournament.
 |
| Australian Open logo, © Australian Open |
View my pre-tournament predictions for the
Men and the
Women here. Who's doing better so far, the top players, or the lower ranked players? Some stats I calculated for the top 150 players:
| Rank |
± Men |
± Wmn |
| 1-10 |
17 |
22 |
| 11-20 |
0 |
3 |
| 21-50 |
74 |
-40 |
| 51-100 |
-31 |
16 |
| 101-150 |
-41 |
28 |
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Now, my latest Men's ratings and predictions:
| # |
Name |
ELO |
R2 % |
R3 % |
R4 % |
R5 % |
R6 % |
R7 % |
| 1 |
Miomir Kecmanovic |
1506 |
30.90% |
11.63% |
3.69% |
0.83% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
| 2 |
Tommy Paul |
1646 |
69.10% |
39.41% |
19.86% |
7.61% |
1.31% |
0.40% |
| 3 |
Oscar Otte |
1524 |
34.82% |
13.65% |
4.64% |
1.12% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
| 4 |
Lorenzo Sonego |
1633 |
65.18% |
35.30% |
17.17% |
6.30% |
1.03% |
0.30% |
| 5 |
Gael Monfils |
1706 |
68.59% |
44.58% |
28.20% |
13.03% |
2.88% |
1.07% |
| 6 |
Alexander Bublik |
1570 |
31.41% |
14.48% |
6.45% |
1.87% |
0.23% |
0.05% |
| 7 |
Pedro Martinez |
1559 |
40.88% |
14.67% |
6.32% |
1.76% |
0.21% |
0.04% |
| 8 |
Christian Garin |
1624 |
59.12% |
26.27% |
13.67% |
4.85% |
0.76% |
0.21% |
| 9 |
Sebastian Korda |
1648 |
63.78% |
28.33% |
10.59% |
5.46% |
0.95% |
0.29% |
| 10 |
Corentin Moutet |
1550 |
36.22% |
11.58% |
3.03% |
1.15% |
0.13% |
0.03% |
| 11 |
Tallon Griekspoor |
1530 |
23.51% |
9.07% |
2.20% |
0.78% |
0.08% |
0.02% |
| 12 |
Pablo Carreno Busta |
1735 |
76.49% |
51.02% |
24.89% |
15.81% |
3.93% |
1.61% |
| 13 |
Carlos Alcaraz |
1666 |
69.49% |
25.16% |
12.40% |
6.71% |
1.26% |
0.41% |
| 14 |
Dusan Lajovic |
1523 |
30.51% |
6.53% |
2.00% |
0.69% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
| 15 |
Stefan Kozlov |
1436 |
10.72% |
2.80% |
0.60% |
0.15% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 16 |
Matteo Berrettini |
1804 |
89.28% |
65.51% |
44.29% |
31.88% |
10.24% |
5.11% |
| 17 |
Alexander Zverev |
1956 |
90.95% |
85.11% |
73.53% |
40.13% |
31.90% |
21.96% |
| 18 |
John Millman |
1555 |
9.05% |
5.36% |
2.11% |
0.31% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| 19 |
Radu Albot |
1476 |
46.37% |
4.14% |
1.21% |
0.13% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 20 |
Aleksandar Vukic |
1502 |
53.63% |
5.39% |
1.74% |
0.20% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 21 |
Reilly Opelka |
1637 |
58.80% |
29.16% |
6.32% |
1.29% |
0.52% |
0.15% |
| 22 |
Dominik Koepfer |
1575 |
41.20% |
16.87% |
2.92% |
0.47% |
0.15% |
0.03% |
| 23 |
Kwon Soon-Woo |
1578 |
36.39% |
16.46% |
2.88% |
0.46% |
0.15% |
0.04% |
| 24 |
Denis Shapovalov |
1675 |
63.61% |
37.51% |
9.29% |
2.19% |
0.99% |
0.33% |
| 25 |
Hubert Hurkacz |
1701 |
74.02% |
43.22% |
9.62% |
2.90% |
1.41% |
0.52% |
| 26 |
Adrian Mannarino |
1519 |
25.98% |
8.77% |
0.92% |
0.14% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 27 |
Mackenzie McDonald |
1544 |
31.10% |
10.98% |
1.29% |
0.22% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 28 |
Aslan Karatsev |
1682 |
68.90% |
37.03% |
7.69% |
2.18% |
1.01% |
0.35% |
| 29 |
Karen Khachanov |
1689 |
77.59% |
13.72% |
7.38% |
2.13% |
1.01% |
0.35% |
| 30 |
Benjamin Bonzi |
1473 |
22.41% |
1.54% |
0.40% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 31 |
Yannick Hanfmann |
1527 |
6.12% |
2.13% |
0.69% |
0.11% |
0.03% |
0.01% |
| 32 |
Rafael Nadal |
2002 |
93.88% |
82.61% |
72.03% |
47.10% |
39.26% |
29.00% |
| 33 |
Alex Molcan |
1555 |
57.86% |
27.26% |
8.13% |
2.23% |
0.47% |
0.06% |
| 34 |
Pablo Andujar |
1500 |
42.14% |
16.71% |
3.99% |
0.87% |
0.14% |
0.02% |
| 35 |
Kamil Majchrzak |
1464 |
28.88% |
11.66% |
2.39% |
0.44% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 36 |
Alex De Minaur |
1620 |
71.12% |
44.37% |
16.78% |
5.88% |
1.60% |
0.29% |
| 37 |
Andy Murray |
1707 |
81.16% |
40.17% |
27.71% |
12.83% |
4.73% |
1.23% |
| 38 |
Taro Daniel |
1453 |
18.84% |
3.76% |
1.31% |
0.23% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 39 |
Steve Johnson |
1543 |
22.66% |
7.83% |
3.68% |
0.96% |
0.19% |
0.03% |
| 40 |
Jannik Sinner |
1756 |
77.34% |
48.24% |
36.00% |
19.09% |
8.20% |
2.55% |
| 41 |
Roberto Bautista Agut |
1651 |
65.22% |
30.78% |
10.95% |
5.11% |
1.55% |
0.33% |
| 42 |
Philipp Kohlschreiber |
1542 |
34.78% |
11.25% |
2.65% |
0.86% |
0.17% |
0.02% |
| 43 |
Frances Tiafoe |
1643 |
43.11% |
23.37% |
8.10% |
3.69% |
1.09% |
0.22% |
| 44 |
Taylor Fritz |
1691 |
56.89% |
34.60% |
14.08% |
7.33% |
2.57% |
0.63% |
| 45 |
Grigor Dimitrov |
1703 |
78.83% |
31.26% |
17.91% |
9.61% |
3.50% |
0.90% |
| 46 |
Benoit Paire |
1474 |
21.17% |
3.55% |
0.95% |
0.24% |
0.04% |
0.00% |
| 47 |
Sebastian Baez |
1499 |
13.66% |
4.09% |
1.22% |
0.34% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 48 |
Stefanos Tsitsipas |
1819 |
86.34% |
61.10% |
44.13% |
30.29% |
15.43% |
5.92% |
| 49 |
Andrey Rublev |
1762 |
80.37% |
51.07% |
33.05% |
13.73% |
7.49% |
2.38% |
| 50 |
Ricardas Berankis |
1517 |
19.63% |
6.25% |
1.98% |
0.34% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
| 51 |
Norbert Gombos |
1468 |
20.38% |
4.26% |
1.10% |
0.15% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 52 |
Marin Cilic |
1704 |
79.62% |
38.42% |
21.91% |
7.63% |
3.57% |
0.92% |
| 53 |
Daniel Evans |
1634 |
56.24% |
25.03% |
9.80% |
2.69% |
1.00% |
0.20% |
| 54 |
Arthur Rinderknech |
1591 |
43.76% |
16.88% |
5.68% |
1.32% |
0.42% |
0.07% |
| 55 |
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina |
1594 |
33.46% |
15.70% |
5.35% |
1.26% |
0.41% |
0.07% |
| 56 |
Felix Auger-Aliassime |
1713 |
66.54% |
42.39% |
21.13% |
7.57% |
3.63% |
0.97% |
| 57 |
Diego Schwartzman |
1731 |
82.21% |
59.82% |
21.02% |
11.41% |
5.75% |
1.64% |
| 58 |
Christopher O'Connell |
1466 |
17.79% |
6.61% |
0.83% |
0.18% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 59 |
Tomas Machac |
1501 |
37.20% |
10.06% |
1.48% |
0.37% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
| 60 |
Maxime Cressy |
1592 |
62.80% |
23.51% |
5.05% |
1.78% |
0.57% |
0.09% |
| 61 |
Richard Gasquet |
1584 |
47.36% |
7.72% |
3.09% |
1.06% |
0.33% |
0.05% |
| 62 |
Botic van de Zandschulp |
1603 |
52.64% |
9.31% |
3.95% |
1.45% |
0.48% |
0.08% |
| 63 |
Nick Kyrgios |
1677 |
18.41% |
11.37% |
5.96% |
2.79% |
1.20% |
0.28% |
| 64 |
Daniil Medvedev |
1936 |
81.59% |
71.59% |
58.63% |
46.27% |
35.09% |
18.63% |
And my latest Women's ratings and predictions:
| # |
Name |
ELO |
R2 % |
R3 % |
R4 % |
R5 % |
R6 % |
R7 % |
| 1 |
Ashleigh Barty |
1948 |
92.06% |
78.77% |
57.39% |
46.23% |
34.98% |
25.58% |
| 2 |
Lucia Bronzetti |
1522 |
7.94% |
2.73% |
0.55% |
0.16% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 3 |
Tereza Martincova |
1581 |
37.75% |
5.51% |
1.44% |
0.51% |
0.15% |
0.04% |
| 4 |
Camila Giorgi |
1668 |
62.25% |
12.99% |
4.71% |
2.21% |
0.87% |
0.32% |
| 5 |
Belinda Bencic |
1727 |
57.75% |
24.20% |
7.46% |
4.10% |
1.95% |
0.87% |
| 6 |
Amanda Anisimova |
1673 |
42.25% |
14.87% |
3.78% |
1.80% |
0.72% |
0.27% |
| 7 |
Madison Brengle |
1475 |
11.91% |
2.52% |
0.28% |
0.07% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 8 |
Naomi Osaka |
1822 |
88.09% |
58.40% |
24.38% |
16.41% |
9.95% |
5.73% |
| 9 |
Nuria Parrizas Diaz |
1494 |
48.57% |
13.74% |
3.41% |
0.41% |
0.08% |
0.01% |
| 10 |
Maryna Zanevska |
1504 |
51.43% |
15.11% |
3.91% |
0.49% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
| 11 |
Bernada Pera |
1490 |
21.76% |
10.61% |
2.60% |
0.30% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 12 |
Jessica Pegula |
1713 |
78.24% |
60.54% |
31.65% |
9.56% |
4.36% |
1.85% |
| 13 |
Veronika Kudermetova |
1671 |
66.23% |
29.35% |
16.30% |
4.20% |
1.68% |
0.62% |
| 14 |
Elena-Gabriela Ruse |
1554 |
33.77% |
10.08% |
4.06% |
0.64% |
0.16% |
0.04% |
| 15 |
Zheng Qinwen |
1530 |
21.15% |
7.64% |
2.85% |
0.40% |
0.09% |
0.02% |
| 16 |
Maria Sakkari |
1759 |
78.85% |
52.92% |
35.22% |
12.52% |
6.50% |
3.17% |
| 17 |
Barbora Krejcikova |
1773 |
84.07% |
54.20% |
29.32% |
17.23% |
7.15% |
3.62% |
| 18 |
Wang Xiyu |
1484 |
15.93% |
4.12% |
0.80% |
0.18% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 19 |
Alison Riske |
1629 |
40.53% |
14.85% |
5.16% |
2.05% |
0.51% |
0.16% |
| 20 |
Jelena Ostapenko |
1695 |
59.47% |
26.82% |
11.65% |
5.64% |
1.81% |
0.73% |
| 21 |
Victoria Azarenka |
1792 |
75.79% |
47.77% |
28.58% |
17.50% |
7.68% |
4.09% |
| 22 |
Jil Teichmann |
1593 |
24.21% |
8.97% |
2.98% |
1.05% |
0.23% |
0.06% |
| 23 |
Harmony Tan |
1473 |
18.02% |
3.33% |
0.68% |
0.15% |
0.02% |
0.00% |
| 24 |
Elina Svitolina |
1736 |
81.98% |
39.92% |
20.85% |
11.24% |
4.15% |
1.90% |
| 25 |
Madison Keys |
1681 |
64.48% |
40.67% |
17.81% |
7.33% |
2.24% |
0.86% |
| 26 |
Jaqueline Cristian |
1578 |
35.52% |
17.23% |
5.36% |
1.51% |
0.31% |
0.08% |
| 27 |
Alison Van Uytvanck |
1575 |
46.38% |
18.67% |
5.74% |
1.60% |
0.32% |
0.08% |
| 28 |
Wang Qiang |
1600 |
53.62% |
23.43% |
7.89% |
2.42% |
0.54% |
0.15% |
| 29 |
Sara Sorribes Tormo |
1616 |
57.91% |
18.32% |
8.95% |
2.93% |
0.70% |
0.21% |
| 30 |
Marta Kostyuk |
1561 |
42.09% |
10.87% |
4.47% |
1.17% |
0.22% |
0.05% |
| 31 |
Martina Trevisan |
1436 |
11.23% |
3.25% |
0.83% |
0.13% |
0.01% |
0.00% |
| 32 |
Paula Badosa |
1795 |
88.77% |
67.56% |
48.94% |
27.88% |
12.37% |
6.66% |
| 33 |
Anett Kontaveit |
1839 |
78.76% |
55.40% |
39.04% |
22.96% |
15.44% |
8.02% |
| 34 |
Clara Tauson |
1611 |
21.24% |
8.44% |
3.38% |
1.01% |
0.37% |
0.09% |
| 35 |
Ana Konjuh |
1610 |
34.12% |
9.29% |
3.70% |
1.10% |
0.40% |
0.10% |
| 36 |
Danielle Collins |
1724 |
65.88% |
26.87% |
14.95% |
6.51% |
3.39% |
1.26% |
| 37 |
Elise Mertens |
1708 |
67.14% |
36.94% |
15.44% |
6.39% |
3.19% |
1.12% |
| 38 |
Irina-Camelia Begu |
1583 |
32.86% |
12.64% |
3.39% |
0.91% |
0.30% |
0.07% |
| 39 |
Zhang Shuai |
1505 |
22.80% |
6.54% |
1.26% |
0.24% |
0.06% |
0.01% |
| 40 |
Elena Rybakina |
1716 |
77.20% |
43.88% |
18.85% |
8.02% |
4.10% |
1.48% |
| 41 |
Simona Halep |
1815 |
83.42% |
68.93% |
41.47% |
24.38% |
15.66% |
7.64% |
| 42 |
Beatriz Haddad Maia |
1534 |
16.58% |
8.17% |
2.15% |
0.50% |
0.14% |
0.02% |
| 43 |
Danka Kovinic |
1466 |
34.54% |
5.72% |
1.15% |
0.20% |
0.04% |
0.01% |
| 44 |
Emma Raducanu |
1577 |
65.46% |
17.17% |
5.29% |
1.48% |
0.49% |
0.10% |
| 45 |
Tamara Zidansek |
1586 |
67.87% |
18.19% |
5.79% |
1.68% |
0.57% |
0.12% |
| 46 |
Heather Watson |
1456 |
32.13% |
4.94% |
0.96% |
0.16% |
0.03% |
0.00% |
| 47 |
Alize Cornet |
1589 |
21.01% |
11.80% |
3.80% |
1.11% |
0.38% |
0.08% |
| 48 |
Garbine Muguruza |
1819 |
78.99% |
65.07% |
39.38% |
23.35% |
15.12% |
7.46% |
| 49 |
Iga Swiatek |
1768 |
75.28% |
47.41% |
33.11% |
20.35% |
9.78% |
4.17% |
| 50 |
Rebecca Peterson |
1575 |
24.72% |
9.02% |
4.00% |
1.46% |
0.35% |
0.07% |
| 51 |
Magda Linette |
1594 |
33.50% |
11.14% |
5.23% |
2.03% |
0.53% |
0.12% |
| 52 |
Daria Kasatkina |
1713 |
66.50% |
32.43% |
20.44% |
11.11% |
4.51% |
1.61% |
| 53 |
Sorana Cirstea |
1600 |
66.69% |
30.54% |
10.56% |
4.18% |
1.12% |
0.26% |
| 54 |
Kristina Kucova |
1479 |
33.31% |
10.20% |
2.17% |
0.56% |
0.09% |
0.01% |
| 55 |
Samantha Stosur |
1460 |
22.30% |
8.11% |
1.59% |
0.38% |
0.05% |
0.01% |
| 56 |
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova |
1677 |
77.70% |
51.15% |
22.89% |
11.33% |
4.06% |
1.27% |
| 57 |
Kaia Kanepi |
1578 |
59.57% |
37.31% |
11.69% |
4.08% |
1.00% |
0.21% |
| 58 |
Marie Bouzkova |
1511 |
40.43% |
21.52% |
5.16% |
1.39% |
0.26% |
0.04% |
| 59 |
Hailey Baptiste |
1503 |
54.49% |
23.50% |
5.43% |
1.42% |
0.25% |
0.04% |
| 60 |
Maddison Inglis |
1471 |
45.51% |
17.66% |
3.57% |
0.82% |
0.12% |
0.02% |
| 61 |
Marketa Vondrousova |
1702 |
64.95% |
29.79% |
21.75% |
11.20% |
4.38% |
1.51% |
| 62 |
Liudmila Samsonova |
1595 |
35.05% |
11.38% |
6.77% |
2.51% |
0.66% |
0.15% |
| 63 |
Wang Xinyu |
1510 |
17.77% |
5.24% |
2.49% |
0.67% |
0.12% |
0.02% |
| 64 |
Aryna Sabalenka |
1776 |
82.23% |
53.60% |
43.14% |
26.52% |
13.02% |
5.69% |
