The 4th round of the Australian Open has finished, so let's take a look at how those results impacted my ratings of the players still in, and also how well I expect them to do for the rest of the tournament.
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View my pre-tournament predictions for the
Men and the
Women here. Who's doing better so far, the top players, or the lower ranked players? Some stats I calculated for the top 150 players:
| Rank | ± Men | ± Wmn |
|---|
| 1-10 | 38 | -27 |
| 11-20 | 52 | 33 |
| 21-50 | 42 | 7 |
| 51-100 | -69 | 25 |
| 101-150 | -12 | 26 |
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Now, my latest Men's ratings and predictions:
| # |
Name |
ELO |
R5 % |
R6 % |
R7 % |
| 1 |
Gael Monfils |
1725 |
36.49% |
7.99% |
2.44% |
| 2 |
Matteo Berrettini |
1821 |
63.51% |
20.07% |
8.57% |
| 3 |
Denis Shapovalov |
1708 |
15.14% |
5.92% |
1.69% |
| 4 |
Rafael Nadal |
2007 |
84.86% |
66.02% |
44.52% |
| 5 |
Jannik Sinner |
1770 |
41.30% |
13.76% |
4.13% |
| 6 |
Stefanos Tsitsipas |
1831 |
58.70% |
24.05% |
8.92% |
| 7 |
Felix Auger-Aliassime |
1738 |
23.27% |
9.38% |
2.49% |
| 8 |
Daniil Medvedev |
1945 |
76.73% |
52.81% |
27.23% |
And my latest Women's ratings and predictions:
| # |
Name |
ELO |
R5 % |
R6 % |
R7 % |
| 1 |
Ashleigh Barty |
1956 |
78.34% |
58.84% |
45.41% |
| 2 |
Jessica Pegula |
1733 |
21.66% |
9.93% |
4.88% |
| 3 |
Barbora Krejcikova |
1794 |
62.02% |
21.62% |
12.46% |
| 4 |
Madison Keys |
1709 |
37.98% |
9.61% |
4.40% |
| 5 |
Danielle Collins |
1747 |
66.35% |
33.68% |
11.27% |
| 6 |
Alize Cornet |
1630 |
33.65% |
11.81% |
2.49% |
| 7 |
Iga Swiatek |
1788 |
73.70% |
44.94% |
17.24% |
| 8 |
Kaia Kanepi |
1609 |
26.30% |
9.57% |
1.84% |
