The 3rd round of the Australian Open has finished, so let's take a look at how those results impacted my ratings of the players still in, and also how well I expect them to do for the rest of the tournament.
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View my pre-tournament predictions for the
Men and the
Women here. Who's doing better so far, the top players, or the lower ranked players? Some stats I calculated for the top 150 players:
| Rank | ± Men | ± Wmn |
|---|
| 1-10 | 37 | 10 |
| 11-20 | 50 | 34 |
| 21-50 | 38 | -5 |
| 51-100 | -62 | -1 |
| 101-150 | -10 | 26 |
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Now, my latest Men's ratings and predictions:
| # |
Name |
ELO |
R4 % |
R5 % |
R6 % |
R7 % |
| 1 |
Miomir Kecmanovic |
1533 |
25.48% |
4.86% |
0.38% |
0.06% |
| 2 |
Gael Monfils |
1720 |
74.52% |
30.25% |
5.85% |
1.93% |
| 3 |
Pablo Carreno Busta |
1748 |
40.70% |
24.41% |
5.33% |
1.94% |
| 4 |
Matteo Berrettini |
1813 |
59.30% |
40.48% |
11.59% |
5.19% |
| 5 |
Alexander Zverev |
1959 |
82.35% |
38.29% |
29.00% |
18.53% |
| 6 |
Denis Shapovalov |
1691 |
17.65% |
3.14% |
1.29% |
0.38% |
| 7 |
Adrian Mannarino |
1548 |
6.68% |
0.83% |
0.20% |
0.03% |
| 8 |
Rafael Nadal |
2006 |
93.32% |
57.75% |
46.36% |
32.24% |
| 9 |
Alex De Minaur |
1633 |
31.98% |
9.52% |
2.13% |
0.36% |
| 10 |
Jannik Sinner |
1764 |
68.02% |
31.94% |
11.63% |
3.33% |
| 11 |
Taylor Fritz |
1709 |
33.89% |
16.29% |
4.89% |
1.13% |
| 12 |
Stefanos Tsitsipas |
1825 |
66.11% |
42.25% |
18.59% |
6.62% |
| 13 |
Marin Cilic |
1720 |
48.89% |
13.36% |
5.78% |
1.40% |
| 14 |
Felix Auger-Aliassime |
1728 |
51.11% |
14.37% |
6.37% |
1.59% |
| 15 |
Maxime Cressy |
1606 |
12.62% |
4.25% |
1.22% |
0.18% |
| 16 |
Daniil Medvedev |
1942 |
87.38% |
68.01% |
49.38% |
25.10% |
And my latest Women's ratings and predictions:
| # |
Name |
ELO |
R4 % |
R5 % |
R6 % |
R7 % |
| 1 |
Ashleigh Barty |
1953 |
81.20% |
61.89% |
44.71% |
32.88% |
| 2 |
Amanda Anisimova |
1698 |
18.80% |
8.03% |
3.04% |
1.21% |
| 3 |
Jessica Pegula |
1722 |
43.01% |
11.62% |
4.77% |
2.05% |
| 4 |
Maria Sakkari |
1770 |
56.99% |
18.46% |
8.85% |
4.41% |
| 5 |
Barbora Krejcikova |
1784 |
46.97% |
24.73% |
9.50% |
4.91% |
| 6 |
Victoria Azarenka |
1805 |
53.03% |
29.49% |
12.11% |
6.62% |
| 7 |
Madison Keys |
1696 |
35.24% |
12.75% |
3.59% |
1.42% |
| 8 |
Paula Badosa |
1802 |
64.76% |
33.02% |
13.43% |
7.29% |
| 9 |
Danielle Collins |
1738 |
52.72% |
23.75% |
11.29% |
3.93% |
| 10 |
Elise Mertens |
1719 |
47.28% |
20.11% |
9.03% |
2.94% |
| 11 |
Simona Halep |
1821 |
76.64% |
48.18% |
28.39% |
12.91% |
| 12 |
Alize Cornet |
1614 |
23.36% |
7.96% |
2.49% |
0.53% |
| 13 |
Iga Swiatek |
1782 |
71.92% |
39.89% |
20.91% |
8.44% |
| 14 |
Sorana Cirstea |
1619 |
28.08% |
9.51% |
2.92% |
0.64% |
| 15 |
Kaia Kanepi |
1593 |
24.63% |
7.68% |
2.13% |
0.42% |
| 16 |
Aryna Sabalenka |
1788 |
75.37% |
42.92% |
22.84% |
9.39% |
