The 1st Grand Slam of the season is starting on Monday, so I'm here with a preview and predictions for how the Women's bracket will turn out. After the jump I present a table with percentages for all 128 players and how they will do.
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But before the full table, some highlights I want to pick out.
- Ashleigh Barty is the most likely to win the tournament, with a 25% chance of winning the whole thing, with Simona Halep next at 7.8%. The 3rd most likely is Garbine Muguruza with 7.38% and Anett Kontaveit is 4th with 7.23%
- For the 2nd year in a row, Simona Halep has the easiest overall draw, as she is 2.87 percentage points more likely to win the tournament than expected at the expense of Naomi Osaka, who is 2.45 percentage points less likely to win the tournament than expected
- The toughest 1st round draw went to Katerina Siniakova, as she's 41.53 percentage points less likely to win than a player of her rank is expected to win. Heather Watson got the easiest 1st round draw, as she's 32.49 percentage points more likely to make it to round 2 than her ranking would expect.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # | Name | ELO | R1 % | R2 % | R3 % | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ashleigh Barty | 1946 | 91.14% | 84.44% | 74.04% | 56.12% | 44.05% | 33.94% | 25.00% |
| 2 | Lesia Tsurenko | 1541 | 8.86% | 4.88% | 2.06% | 0.54% | 0.15% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 3 | Varvara Gracheva | 1498 | 47.98% | 4.95% | 1.81% | 0.40% | 0.09% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 4 | Lucia Bronzetti | 1512 | 52.02% | 5.72% | 2.20% | 0.51% | 0.13% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 5 | Tereza Martincova | 1573 | 59.07% | 25.57% | 4.56% | 1.35% | 0.43% | 0.13% | 0.03% |
| 6 | Lauren Davis | 1509 | 40.93% | 14.25% | 1.98% | 0.46% | 0.11% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 7 | Anastasia Potapova | 1538 | 33.03% | 16.12% | 2.52% | 0.65% | 0.18% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 8 | Camila Giorgi | 1661 | 66.97% | 44.06% | 10.83% | 4.36% | 1.88% | 0.77% | 0.28% |
| 9 | Belinda Bencic | 1722 | 73.94% | 46.90% | 22.57% | 7.59% | 3.90% | 1.91% | 0.85% |
| 10 | Kristina Mladenovic | 1541 | 26.06% | 10.15% | 2.76% | 0.49% | 0.14% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 11 | Arianne Hartono | 1505 | 28.15% | 7.91% | 1.88% | 0.29% | 0.07% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 12 | Amanda Anisimova | 1667 | 71.85% | 35.04% | 14.49% | 4.08% | 1.79% | 0.75% | 0.28% |
| 13 | Dayana Yastremska | 1555 | 63.03% | 14.96% | 5.21% | 0.98% | 0.29% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 14 | Madison Brengle | 1462 | 36.97% | 5.90% | 1.43% | 0.18% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 15 | Camila Osorio | 1564 | 18.75% | 10.52% | 3.78% | 0.74% | 0.23% | 0.07% | 0.02% |
| 16 | Naomi Osaka | 1819 | 81.25% | 68.62% | 47.87% | 21.26% | 13.66% | 8.51% | 4.93% |
| 17 | Ons Jabeur | 1782 | 84.67% | 69.86% | 47.28% | 30.50% | 12.36% | 7.09% | 3.75% |
| 18 | Nuria Parrizas Diaz | 1485 | 15.33% | 7.07% | 2.04% | 0.54% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 19 | Maryna Zanevska | 1493 | 45.03% | 9.60% | 2.86% | 0.78% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 20 | Kaja Juvan | 1527 | 54.97% | 13.46% | 4.57% | 1.43% | 0.22% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 21 | Bernada Pera | 1476 | 28.29% | 7.52% | 1.81% | 0.46% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 22 | Ekaterina Alexandrova | 1638 | 71.71% | 33.49% | 13.96% | 6.33% | 1.56% | 0.59% | 0.20% |
| 23 | Anhelina Kalinina | 1528 | 26.24% | 10.79% | 3.14% | 0.99% | 0.15% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 24 | Jessica Pegula | 1707 | 73.76% | 48.20% | 24.33% | 13.33% | 4.24% | 2.00% | 0.85% |
| 25 | Veronika Kudermetova | 1666 | 75.07% | 49.17% | 23.10% | 10.30% | 2.82% | 1.17% | 0.43% |
| 26 | Claire Liu | 1474 | 24.93% | 9.64% | 2.32% | 0.52% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 27 | Elena-Gabriela Ruse | 1543 | 46.97% | 18.65% | 5.88% | 1.73% | 0.29% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 28 | Jasmine Paolini | 1564 | 53.03% | 22.53% | 7.66% | 2.44% | 0.45% | 0.13% | 0.03% |
| 29 | Aliaksandra Sasnovich | 1622 | 64.68% | 24.48% | 12.93% | 5.03% | 1.17% | 0.42% | 0.13% |
| 30 | Zheng Qinwen | 1517 | 35.32% | 9.20% | 3.54% | 0.94% | 0.14% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 31 | Tatjana Maria | 1457 | 15.20% | 4.96% | 1.53% | 0.32% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 32 | Maria Sakkari | 1756 | 84.80% | 61.35% | 43.04% | 24.36% | 9.10% | 4.89% | 2.41% |
| 33 | Barbora Krejcikova | 1767 | 72.57% | 61.38% | 41.30% | 23.39% | 13.91% | 5.77% | 2.94% |
| 34 | Andrea Petkovic | 1598 | 27.43% | 18.50% | 8.20% | 2.81% | 1.04% | 0.24% | 0.07% |
| 35 | Viktoria Kuzmova | 1469 | 49.31% | 9.81% | 2.73% | 0.56% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 36 | Wang Xiyu | 1474 | 50.69% | 10.30% | 2.93% | 0.61% | 0.14% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 37 | Donna Vekic | 1601 | 47.45% | 20.97% | 8.40% | 2.91% | 1.09% | 0.25% | 0.07% |
| 38 | Alison Riske | 1619 | 52.55% | 24.47% | 10.34% | 3.81% | 1.52% | 0.37% | 0.12% |
| 39 | Anna Karolina Schmiedlova | 1490 | 23.99% | 7.99% | 2.19% | 0.49% | 0.12% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 40 | Jelena Ostapenko | 1690 | 76.01% | 46.57% | 23.91% | 11.05% | 5.44% | 1.75% | 0.71% |
| 41 | Victoria Azarenka | 1789 | 84.82% | 66.30% | 43.45% | 27.73% | 17.26% | 7.64% | 4.11% |
| 42 | Panna Udvardy | 1490 | 15.18% | 5.95% | 1.60% | 0.41% | 0.10% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 43 | Petra Martic | 1543 | 44.06% | 11.17% | 3.69% | 1.17% | 0.36% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 44 | Jil Teichmann | 1585 | 55.94% | 16.58% | 6.34% | 2.33% | 0.83% | 0.18% | 0.05% |
| 45 | Yulia Putintseva | 1654 | 75.58% | 34.58% | 14.67% | 6.73% | 2.98% | 0.84% | 0.30% |
| 46 | Harmony Tan | 1458 | 24.42% | 5.51% | 1.15% | 0.26% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 47 | Fiona Ferro | 1530 | 23.85% | 9.42% | 2.62% | 0.79% | 0.23% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 48 | Elina Svitolina | 1731 | 76.15% | 50.48% | 26.47% | 14.91% | 8.16% | 3.02% | 1.39% |
| 49 | Sofia Kenin | 1699 | 54.17% | 38.69% | 22.04% | 11.65% | 5.46% | 1.82% | 0.76% |
| 50 | Madison Keys | 1670 | 45.83% | 31.14% | 16.53% | 8.12% | 3.49% | 1.05% | 0.40% |
| 51 | Greet Minnen | 1487 | 38.25% | 9.23% | 2.73% | 0.74% | 0.16% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 52 | Jaqueline Cristian | 1570 | 61.75% | 20.94% | 8.31% | 3.04% | 0.92% | 0.19% | 0.05% |
| 53 | Alison Van Uytvanck | 1568 | 65.26% | 22.32% | 8.82% | 3.20% | 0.96% | 0.19% | 0.05% |
| 54 | Cristina Bucsa | 1458 | 34.74% | 7.65% | 2.01% | 0.49% | 0.09% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 55 | Wang Qiang | 1586 | 30.58% | 17.69% | 7.42% | 2.85% | 0.92% | 0.20% | 0.05% |
| 56 | Coco Gauff | 1728 | 69.42% | 52.35% | 32.15% | 18.18% | 9.24% | 3.39% | 1.54% |
| 57 | Sara Sorribes Tormo | 1610 | 70.16% | 43.80% | 16.73% | 7.15% | 2.51% | 0.60% | 0.18% |
| 58 | Kirsten Flipkens | 1462 | 29.84% | 12.45% | 2.78% | 0.69% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 59 | Diane Parry | 1467 | 37.89% | 13.86% | 3.17% | 0.80% | 0.16% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 60 | Marta Kostyuk | 1553 | 62.11% | 29.90% | 9.45% | 3.33% | 0.94% | 0.18% | 0.04% |
| 61 | Zheng Saisai | 1535 | 65.20% | 15.81% | 7.46% | 2.46% | 0.65% | 0.11% | 0.03% |
| 62 | Martina Trevisan | 1426 | 34.80% | 5.20% | 1.70% | 0.36% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 63 | Ajla Tomljanovic | 1600 | 25.10% | 16.09% | 9.05% | 3.75% | 1.27% | 0.29% | 0.08% |
| 64 | Paula Badosa | 1790 | 74.90% | 62.91% | 49.66% | 33.21% | 19.69% | 8.75% | 4.73% |
| 65 | Anett Kontaveit | 1835 | 80.01% | 65.62% | 47.02% | 34.59% | 20.68% | 13.77% | 7.23% |
| 66 | Katerina Siniakova | 1594 | 19.99% | 10.77% | 4.28% | 1.82% | 0.54% | 0.19% | 0.04% |
| 67 | Clara Tauson | 1604 | 65.24% | 17.66% | 7.27% | 3.19% | 0.98% | 0.35% | 0.09% |
| 68 | Astra Sharma | 1495 | 34.76% | 5.95% | 1.64% | 0.49% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 69 | Ana Konjuh | 1599 | 45.10% | 17.68% | 5.56% | 2.40% | 0.72% | 0.25% | 0.06% |
| 70 | Shelby Rogers | 1633 | 54.90% | 23.92% | 8.44% | 4.03% | 1.37% | 0.54% | 0.15% |
| 71 | Caroline Dolehide | 1421 | 15.09% | 3.69% | 0.57% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 72 | Danielle Collins | 1721 | 84.91% | 54.71% | 25.21% | 15.06% | 6.76% | 3.48% | 1.31% |
| 73 | Elise Mertens | 1702 | 70.33% | 49.92% | 29.59% | 13.20% | 5.59% | 2.73% | 0.96% |
| 74 | Vera Zvonareva | 1552 | 29.67% | 15.14% | 5.96% | 1.58% | 0.40% | 0.12% | 0.02% |
| 75 | Oceane Dodin | 1494 | 38.47% | 11.06% | 3.57% | 0.75% | 0.15% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 76 | Irina-Camelia Begu | 1576 | 61.53% | 23.88% | 10.15% | 2.96% | 0.82% | 0.26% | 0.06% |
| 77 | Viktorija Golubic | 1560 | 59.59% | 21.49% | 8.82% | 2.42% | 0.63% | 0.19% | 0.04% |
| 78 | Zhang Shuai | 1493 | 40.41% | 11.36% | 3.69% | 0.77% | 0.15% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 79 | Zarina Diyas | 1517 | 24.58% | 11.73% | 4.15% | 0.96% | 0.21% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 80 | Elena Rybakina | 1711 | 75.42% | 55.43% | 34.07% | 15.63% | 6.82% | 3.42% | 1.25% |
| 81 | Simona Halep | 1813 | 90.87% | 78.22% | 64.00% | 40.15% | 24.64% | 15.73% | 7.80% |
| 82 | Magdalena Frech | 1414 | 9.13% | 3.56% | 1.16% | 0.22% | 0.03% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 83 | Katie Volynets | 1434 | 36.94% | 5.18% | 1.82% | 0.37% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 84 | Beatriz Haddad Maia | 1527 | 63.06% | 13.03% | 6.20% | 1.80% | 0.46% | 0.12% | 0.02% |
| 85 | Jang Su-Jeong | 1425 | 45.46% | 12.90% | 2.14% | 0.42% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 86 | Danka Kovinic | 1457 | 54.54% | 17.57% | 3.32% | 0.74% | 0.14% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 87 | Sloane Stephens | 1603 | 55.31% | 39.57% | 12.80% | 4.77% | 1.62% | 0.58% | 0.14% |
| 88 | Emma Raducanu | 1566 | 44.69% | 29.95% | 8.54% | 2.83% | 0.84% | 0.26% | 0.05% |
| 89 | Tamara Zidansek | 1578 | 63.57% | 42.76% | 12.95% | 4.27% | 1.33% | 0.43% | 0.09% |
| 90 | Arantxa Rus | 1482 | 36.43% | 19.70% | 4.14% | 0.96% | 0.20% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 91 | Heather Watson | 1445 | 47.82% | 17.45% | 3.16% | 0.64% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 92 | Mayar Sherif | 1461 | 52.18% | 20.09% | 3.87% | 0.83% | 0.16% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 93 | Alize Cornet | 1583 | 71.67% | 18.96% | 11.33% | 3.79% | 1.20% | 0.40% | 0.09% |
| 94 | Viktoriya Tomova | 1422 | 28.33% | 3.82% | 1.44% | 0.26% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 95 | Clara Burel | 1499 | 13.90% | 6.20% | 2.99% | 0.74% | 0.17% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 96 | Garbine Muguruza | 1816 | 86.10% | 71.01% | 60.12% | 37.20% | 22.97% | 14.75% | 7.38% |
| 97 | Iga Swiatek | 1766 | 86.99% | 67.40% | 43.76% | 29.60% | 17.55% | 8.64% | 3.75% |
| 98 | Harriet Dart | 1436 | 13.01% | 4.43% | 1.02% | 0.26% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 99 | Daria Saville | 1532 | 45.18% | 11.87% | 4.02% | 1.49% | 0.43% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 100 | Rebecca Peterson | 1566 | 54.82% | 16.30% | 6.21% | 2.57% | 0.85% | 0.21% | 0.04% |
| 101 | Magda Linette | 1585 | 50.95% | 19.38% | 6.99% | 3.06% | 1.08% | 0.29% | 0.06% |
| 102 | Anastasija Sevastova | 1578 | 49.05% | 18.26% | 6.44% | 2.76% | 0.95% | 0.25% | 0.05% |
| 103 | Stefanie Vogele | 1366 | 12.08% | 2.71% | 0.41% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 104 | Daria Kasatkina | 1711 | 87.92% | 59.65% | 31.14% | 18.92% | 9.82% | 4.11% | 1.50% |
| 105 | Petra Kvitova | 1703 | 66.20% | 52.35% | 33.93% | 17.16% | 8.72% | 3.56% | 1.27% |
| 106 | Sorana Cirstea | 1587 | 33.80% | 22.27% | 11.05% | 3.89% | 1.38% | 0.37% | 0.08% |
| 107 | Misaki Doi | 1475 | 50.90% | 13.09% | 4.61% | 1.05% | 0.24% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 108 | Kristina Kucova | 1469 | 49.10% | 12.29% | 4.23% | 0.94% | 0.21% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 109 | Robin Anderson | 1500 | 57.36% | 19.24% | 6.64% | 1.68% | 0.43% | 0.08% | 0.01% |
| 110 | Samantha Stosur | 1448 | 42.64% | 11.78% | 3.36% | 0.69% | 0.14% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 111 | Anna Bondar | 1477 | 24.53% | 12.22% | 3.88% | 0.89% | 0.21% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 112 | Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova | 1672 | 75.47% | 56.76% | 32.30% | 14.96% | 6.97% | 2.56% | 0.82% |
| 113 | Angelique Kerber | 1745 | 73.97% | 58.49% | 42.14% | 23.77% | 13.68% | 6.35% | 2.58% |
| 114 | Kaia Kanepi | 1563 | 26.03% | 14.86% | 7.18% | 2.35% | 0.78% | 0.19% | 0.04% |
| 115 | Marie Bouzkova | 1500 | 46.37% | 11.69% | 4.63% | 1.19% | 0.31% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 116 | Rebecca Marino | 1525 | 53.63% | 14.96% | 6.44% | 1.83% | 0.53% | 0.11% | 0.02% |
| 117 | Hailey Baptiste | 1490 | 39.15% | 14.49% | 4.24% | 1.05% | 0.26% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 118 | Caroline Garcia | 1567 | 60.85% | 28.73% | 11.00% | 3.64% | 1.23% | 0.31% | 0.06% |
| 119 | Maddison Inglis | 1457 | 26.60% | 10.31% | 2.65% | 0.57% | 0.12% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 120 | Leylah Fernandez | 1633 | 73.40% | 46.47% | 21.72% | 8.99% | 3.80% | 1.22% | 0.33% |
| 121 | Marketa Vondrousova | 1699 | 81.35% | 56.67% | 27.93% | 15.96% | 8.18% | 3.29% | 1.15% |
| 122 | Priscilla Hon | 1443 | 18.65% | 6.55% | 1.32% | 0.33% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 123 | Emina Bektas | 1485 | 35.54% | 10.24% | 2.45% | 0.73% | 0.18% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 124 | Liudmila Samsonova | 1588 | 64.46% | 26.54% | 9.34% | 3.97% | 1.44% | 0.39% | 0.09% |
| 125 | Ann Li | 1611 | 65.87% | 22.48% | 10.60% | 4.82% | 1.90% | 0.56% | 0.14% |
| 126 | Wang Xinyu | 1497 | 34.13% | 7.62% | 2.47% | 0.77% | 0.20% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 127 | Storm Sanders | 1456 | 13.86% | 4.74% | 1.32% | 0.35% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 128 | Aryna Sabalenka | 1773 | 86.14% | 65.17% | 44.57% | 29.70% | 18.21% | 9.16% | 4.07% |
