The 2nd round of the Australian Open has finished, so let's take a look at how those results impacted my ratings of the players still in, and also how well I expect them to do for the rest of the tournament.
 |
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View my pre-tournament predictions for the
Men and the
Women here. Who's doing better so far, the top players, or the lower ranked players? Some stats I calculated for the top 150 players:
| Rank | ± Men | ± Wmn |
|---|
| 1-10 | 34 | 4 |
| 11-20 | 12 | 4 |
| 21-50 | 94 | 17 |
| 51-100 | -82 | -9 |
| 101-150 | -11 | 44 |
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Now, my latest Men's ratings and predictions:
| # |
Name |
ELO |
R1 % |
R2 % |
R3 % |
R4 % |
R5 % |
| 1 |
Miomir Kecmanovic |
1520 |
33.34% |
9.53% |
2.07% |
0.19% |
0.03% |
| 2 |
Lorenzo Sonego |
1640 |
66.66% |
29.49% |
10.42% |
1.64% |
0.43% |
| 3 |
Gael Monfils |
1712 |
61.35% |
39.97% |
17.96% |
3.85% |
1.31% |
| 4 |
Christian Garin |
1632 |
38.65% |
21.01% |
7.20% |
1.09% |
0.27% |
| 5 |
Sebastian Korda |
1655 |
38.03% |
13.38% |
6.67% |
1.12% |
0.31% |
| 6 |
Pablo Carreno Busta |
1740 |
61.97% |
28.85% |
17.76% |
4.27% |
1.60% |
| 7 |
Carlos Alcaraz |
1672 |
31.56% |
14.19% |
7.41% |
1.34% |
0.40% |
| 8 |
Matteo Berrettini |
1807 |
68.44% |
43.58% |
30.50% |
9.47% |
4.35% |
| 9 |
Alexander Zverev |
1958 |
93.75% |
78.97% |
42.08% |
33.15% |
21.70% |
| 10 |
Radu Albot |
1487 |
6.25% |
1.65% |
0.17% |
0.04% |
0.00% |
| 11 |
Reilly Opelka |
1645 |
44.69% |
7.95% |
1.57% |
0.62% |
0.17% |
| 12 |
Denis Shapovalov |
1682 |
55.31% |
11.43% |
2.61% |
1.16% |
0.36% |
| 13 |
Adrian Mannarino |
1534 |
29.07% |
2.76% |
0.37% |
0.10% |
0.02% |
| 14 |
Aslan Karatsev |
1688 |
70.93% |
13.57% |
3.44% |
1.56% |
0.49% |
| 15 |
Karen Khachanov |
1693 |
14.39% |
8.17% |
2.11% |
0.97% |
0.31% |
| 16 |
Rafael Nadal |
2003 |
85.61% |
75.51% |
47.65% |
39.42% |
27.89% |
| 17 |
Pablo Andujar |
1512 |
34.09% |
8.53% |
1.73% |
0.26% |
0.03% |
| 18 |
Alex De Minaur |
1626 |
65.91% |
24.89% |
8.03% |
1.94% |
0.35% |
| 19 |
Taro Daniel |
1469 |
15.73% |
5.35% |
0.90% |
0.11% |
0.01% |
| 20 |
Jannik Sinner |
1761 |
84.27% |
61.23% |
30.51% |
11.85% |
3.65% |
| 21 |
Roberto Bautista Agut |
1658 |
43.98% |
14.82% |
6.72% |
1.83% |
0.38% |
| 22 |
Taylor Fritz |
1700 |
56.02% |
21.71% |
11.06% |
3.51% |
0.86% |
| 23 |
Benoit Paire |
1490 |
12.89% |
3.23% |
0.82% |
0.11% |
0.01% |
| 24 |
Stefanos Tsitsipas |
1822 |
87.11% |
60.24% |
40.24% |
18.71% |
7.08% |
| 25 |
Andrey Rublev |
1766 |
58.17% |
35.26% |
13.13% |
6.79% |
2.13% |
| 26 |
Marin Cilic |
1709 |
41.83% |
22.02% |
6.84% |
3.00% |
0.76% |
| 27 |
Daniel Evans |
1643 |
39.10% |
14.17% |
3.52% |
1.24% |
0.24% |
| 28 |
Felix Auger-Aliassime |
1720 |
60.90% |
28.55% |
9.21% |
4.19% |
1.11% |
| 29 |
Christopher O'Connell |
1482 |
33.72% |
3.39% |
0.69% |
0.13% |
0.01% |
| 30 |
Maxime Cressy |
1599 |
66.28% |
11.32% |
3.75% |
1.13% |
0.18% |
| 31 |
Botic van de Zandschulp |
1612 |
13.17% |
7.53% |
2.62% |
0.83% |
0.14% |
| 32 |
Daniil Medvedev |
1940 |
86.83% |
77.76% |
60.23% |
44.39% |
23.44% |
And my latest Women's ratings and predictions:
| # |
Name |
ELO |
R1 % |
R2 % |
R3 % |
R4 % |
R5 % |
| 1 |
Ashleigh Barty |
1949 |
82.87% |
59.47% |
46.81% |
34.89% |
26.25% |
| 2 |
Camila Giorgi |
1675 |
17.13% |
6.09% |
2.68% |
1.03% |
0.41% |
| 3 |
Amanda Anisimova |
1684 |
30.83% |
7.28% |
3.30% |
1.31% |
0.54% |
| 4 |
Naomi Osaka |
1825 |
69.17% |
27.16% |
17.56% |
10.39% |
6.26% |
| 5 |
Nuria Parrizas Diaz |
1504 |
22.70% |
4.91% |
0.57% |
0.11% |
0.02% |
| 6 |
Jessica Pegula |
1717 |
77.30% |
37.16% |
10.87% |
4.80% |
2.18% |
| 7 |
Veronika Kudermetova |
1678 |
37.98% |
19.32% |
4.85% |
1.88% |
0.75% |
| 8 |
Maria Sakkari |
1763 |
62.02% |
38.60% |
13.35% |
6.75% |
3.49% |
| 9 |
Barbora Krejcikova |
1776 |
60.29% |
30.42% |
17.14% |
6.99% |
3.74% |
| 10 |
Jelena Ostapenko |
1703 |
39.71% |
15.97% |
7.42% |
2.37% |
1.03% |
| 11 |
Victoria Azarenka |
1796 |
58.11% |
33.12% |
19.57% |
8.50% |
4.79% |
| 12 |
Elina Svitolina |
1740 |
41.89% |
20.50% |
10.54% |
3.82% |
1.85% |
| 13 |
Madison Keys |
1688 |
61.22% |
25.42% |
10.02% |
3.03% |
1.26% |
| 14 |
Wang Qiang |
1609 |
38.78% |
12.30% |
3.60% |
0.80% |
0.25% |
| 15 |
Marta Kostyuk |
1572 |
21.49% |
8.19% |
2.06% |
0.39% |
0.11% |
| 16 |
Paula Badosa |
1798 |
78.51% |
54.10% |
29.65% |
12.92% |
7.30% |
| 17 |
Clara Tauson |
1627 |
35.46% |
15.75% |
5.49% |
1.99% |
0.50% |
| 18 |
Danielle Collins |
1731 |
64.54% |
37.75% |
18.08% |
9.12% |
3.38% |
| 19 |
Elise Mertens |
1714 |
75.35% |
39.79% |
18.20% |
8.75% |
3.06% |
| 20 |
Zhang Shuai |
1520 |
24.65% |
6.71% |
1.57% |
0.38% |
0.06% |
| 21 |
Simona Halep |
1818 |
87.56% |
68.26% |
45.52% |
28.39% |
13.75% |
| 22 |
Danka Kovinic |
1479 |
12.44% |
4.16% |
0.96% |
0.19% |
0.02% |
| 23 |
Tamara Zidansek |
1592 |
48.23% |
12.99% |
4.68% |
1.50% |
0.32% |
| 24 |
Alize Cornet |
1605 |
51.77% |
14.59% |
5.49% |
1.84% |
0.42% |
| 25 |
Iga Swiatek |
1773 |
57.61% |
38.40% |
22.57% |
12.19% |
5.18% |
| 26 |
Daria Kasatkina |
1720 |
42.39% |
25.27% |
13.05% |
6.10% |
2.18% |
| 27 |
Sorana Cirstea |
1606 |
39.40% |
11.99% |
4.39% |
1.41% |
0.32% |
| 28 |
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova |
1681 |
60.60% |
24.34% |
11.29% |
4.69% |
1.45% |
| 29 |
Kaia Kanepi |
1586 |
64.56% |
18.10% |
5.85% |
1.74% |
0.37% |
| 30 |
Maddison Inglis |
1482 |
35.44% |
6.27% |
1.32% |
0.25% |
0.03% |
| 31 |
Marketa Vondrousova |
1709 |
40.00% |
28.46% |
13.89% |
6.29% |
2.16% |
| 32 |
Aryna Sabalenka |
1780 |
60.00% |
47.17% |
27.65% |
15.17% |
6.57% |
