The Indian Wells tournament is one of the biggest of the year outside of the Grand Slams, so I'm here with a preview and predictions for how the Men's bracket will turn out. After the jump, I present a table with percentages for all 96 players competing on how well they will do here.
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| Indian Wells logo, © BNP Paribas Open |
But before the full table, some highlights I want to pick out.
- Rafael Nadal is the favourite to win the title, as she has a 37.46% chance of winning the tournament, Daniil Medvedev is 2nd favourite with 16.52%, Alexander Zverev 3rd with 14.42% and Andrey Rublev 4th with 5.15%.
- Overall, Rublev has the easiest draw here, at the expense of Stefanos Tsitsipas, who has the toughest draw. Rublev and Tsitsipas are 1.72 percentage points more/less likely to win the tournament than expected from their rankings.
- Henri Laaksonen has the easiest round 1 match relative to his ranking, as he's 19.78 percentage points more likely to make it to round 2 than expected. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has a tough 1st match, as he is 20.01 percentage points less likely to get to round 2 than expected.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # | Name | ELO | R1 % | R2 % | R3 % | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniil Medvedev | 1944 | 100.00% | 92.81% | 77.10% | 64.00% | 47.21% | 23.90% | 16.52% |
| 2 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 3 | Tomas Machac | 1492 | 47.96% | 3.31% | 0.94% | 0.26% | 0.05% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 4 | Alexei Popyrin | 1507 | 52.04% | 3.87% | 1.16% | 0.34% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 5 | Filip Krajinovic | 1579 | 59.40% | 19.51% | 2.82% | 1.09% | 0.30% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 6 | Dusan Lajovic | 1513 | 40.60% | 10.17% | 1.10% | 0.33% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 7 | Gael Monfils | 1703 | 100.00% | 70.31% | 16.87% | 9.37% | 4.00% | 0.97% | 0.37% |
| 8 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 9 | Carlos Alcaraz | 1709 | 100.00% | 67.76% | 41.08% | 11.83% | 5.15% | 1.28% | 0.50% |
| 10 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 11 | Mackenzie McDonald | 1566 | 46.14% | 14.04% | 5.75% | 0.94% | 0.24% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 12 | Marton Fucsovics | 1593 | 53.86% | 18.20% | 8.12% | 1.49% | 0.43% | 0.07% | 0.02% |
| 13 | Jeffrey John Wolf | 1495 | 42.53% | 11.19% | 3.08% | 0.37% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 14 | Hugo Gaston | 1548 | 57.47% | 18.70% | 6.31% | 0.95% | 0.23% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 15 | Roberto Bautista Agut | 1674 | 100.00% | 70.12% | 35.65% | 9.03% | 3.51% | 0.76% | 0.26% |
| 16 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 17 | Cameron Norrie | 1782 | 100.00% | 79.34% | 60.01% | 31.94% | 13.18% | 4.20% | 2.03% |
| 18 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 19 | Pedro Martinez | 1585 | 70.58% | 17.18% | 8.61% | 2.42% | 0.50% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 20 | Joao Sousa | 1433 | 29.42% | 3.48% | 1.03% | 0.15% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 21 | Fabio Fognini | 1586 | 58.26% | 27.92% | 8.50% | 2.40% | 0.50% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 22 | Pablo Andujar | 1528 | 41.74% | 16.59% | 4.03% | 0.90% | 0.15% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 23 | Nikoloz Basilashvili | 1600 | 100.00% | 55.49% | 17.82% | 5.32% | 1.17% | 0.19% | 0.05% |
| 24 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 25 | Karen Khachanov | 1705 | 100.00% | 66.05% | 26.46% | 13.29% | 4.30% | 1.05% | 0.40% |
| 26 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 27 | Jenson Brooksby | 1629 | 70.80% | 27.80% | 8.62% | 3.47% | 0.86% | 0.16% | 0.05% |
| 28 | Roberto Carballes Baena | 1475 | 29.20% | 6.14% | 1.03% | 0.24% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 29 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | 1508 | 44.43% | 6.30% | 1.81% | 0.47% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 30 | Jack Sock | 1547 | 55.57% | 9.52% | 3.18% | 0.97% | 0.17% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 31 | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 1821 | 100.00% | 84.18% | 58.90% | 38.44% | 17.73% | 6.40% | 3.43% |
| 32 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 33 | Rafael Nadal | 2039 | 100.00% | 92.19% | 85.69% | 76.73% | 64.23% | 47.44% | 37.46% |
| 34 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 35 | Sebastian Korda | 1639 | 62.00% | 5.62% | 3.23% | 1.50% | 0.55% | 0.14% | 0.04% |
| 36 | Thanasi Kokkinakis | 1553 | 38.00% | 2.19% | 1.00% | 0.35% | 0.09% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 37 | Federico Coria | 1512 | 52.96% | 18.25% | 1.28% | 0.38% | 0.09% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 38 | Pablo Cuevas | 1492 | 47.04% | 14.97% | 0.95% | 0.26% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 39 | Daniel Evans | 1624 | 100.00% | 66.78% | 7.84% | 3.49% | 1.21% | 0.29% | 0.08% |
| 40 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 41 | Reilly Opelka | 1684 | 100.00% | 64.07% | 33.81% | 6.29% | 2.66% | 0.80% | 0.29% |
| 42 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 43 | Marcos Giron | 1612 | 60.40% | 23.99% | 10.20% | 1.43% | 0.47% | 0.11% | 0.03% |
| 44 | Lorenzo Musetti | 1538 | 39.60% | 11.94% | 3.91% | 0.41% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 45 | Borna Coric | 1664 | 62.23% | 29.18% | 15.16% | 2.61% | 1.03% | 0.29% | 0.10% |
| 46 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 1577 | 37.77% | 13.18% | 5.25% | 0.64% | 0.19% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 47 | Denis Shapovalov | 1685 | 100.00% | 57.64% | 31.68% | 5.91% | 2.50% | 0.76% | 0.27% |
| 48 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 49 | Jannik Sinner | 1763 | 100.00% | 76.75% | 55.89% | 29.55% | 8.31% | 3.28% | 1.51% |
| 50 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 51 | Kwon Soon-Woo | 1579 | 58.49% | 15.06% | 7.28% | 2.18% | 0.31% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 52 | Laslo Djere | 1519 | 41.51% | 8.19% | 3.28% | 0.78% | 0.09% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 53 | Benjamin Bonzi | 1495 | 36.04% | 12.36% | 2.85% | 0.61% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 54 | Arthur Rinderknech | 1595 | 63.96% | 30.76% | 10.45% | 3.31% | 0.50% | 0.11% | 0.03% |
| 55 | Lorenzo Sonego | 1608 | 100.00% | 56.88% | 20.24% | 6.72% | 1.08% | 0.24% | 0.07% |
| 56 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 57 | Federico Delbonis | 1516 | 100.00% | 34.53% | 7.03% | 2.00% | 0.22% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 58 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 59 | Nick Kyrgios | 1674 | 69.46% | 49.53% | 18.35% | 8.88% | 1.83% | 0.53% | 0.18% |
| 60 | Sebastian Baez | 1531 | 30.54% | 15.94% | 3.46% | 1.05% | 0.12% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 61 | Christopher Eubanks | 1414 | 27.90% | 2.55% | 0.68% | 0.13% | 0.01% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 62 | Maxime Cressy | 1579 | 72.10% | 14.87% | 7.08% | 2.55% | 0.36% | 0.07% | 0.02% |
| 63 | Casper Ruud | 1813 | 100.00% | 82.58% | 63.40% | 42.23% | 13.94% | 6.41% | 3.37% |
| 64 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 65 | Matteo Berrettini | 1797 | 100.00% | 79.02% | 63.39% | 38.22% | 18.34% | 11.31% | 3.65% |
| 66 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 67 | Ugo Humbert | 1604 | 71.14% | 17.59% | 10.14% | 3.50% | 0.89% | 0.32% | 0.05% |
| 68 | Holger Rune | 1447 | 28.86% | 3.39% | 1.23% | 0.22% | 0.03% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 69 | Facundo Bagnis | 1424 | 40.11% | 11.26% | 1.62% | 0.27% | 0.03% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 70 | Henri Laaksonen | 1493 | 59.89% | 22.05% | 4.35% | 0.97% | 0.16% | 0.04% | 0.00% |
| 71 | Lloyd Harris | 1587 | 100.00% | 66.70% | 19.27% | 6.27% | 1.50% | 0.51% | 0.07% |
| 72 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 73 | Marin Cilic | 1691 | 100.00% | 72.68% | 31.57% | 14.73% | 5.15% | 2.44% | 0.53% |
| 74 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 75 | Liam Broady | 1488 | 42.22% | 10.03% | 2.06% | 0.48% | 0.08% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 76 | Miomir Kecmanovic | 1543 | 57.78% | 17.28% | 4.45% | 1.28% | 0.26% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 77 | Tennys Sandgren | 1468 | 31.86% | 4.48% | 1.22% | 0.26% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 78 | Botic van de Zandschulp | 1600 | 68.14% | 17.66% | 7.72% | 2.73% | 0.69% | 0.24% | 0.04% |
| 79 | Felix Auger-Aliassime | 1783 | 100.00% | 77.86% | 52.98% | 31.05% | 14.34% | 8.58% | 2.63% |
| 80 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 81 | Pablo Carreno Busta | 1716 | 100.00% | 79.21% | 47.40% | 16.55% | 7.65% | 3.89% | 0.93% |
| 82 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 83 | Jaume Munar | 1475 | 47.64% | 9.52% | 2.68% | 0.37% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 84 | Shang Juncheng | 1491 | 52.36% | 11.28% | 3.39% | 0.50% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 85 | Kamil Majchrzak | 1470 | 36.60% | 8.21% | 2.09% | 0.28% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 86 | Aljaz Bedene | 1566 | 63.40% | 21.16% | 7.68% | 1.55% | 0.43% | 0.13% | 0.02% |
| 87 | Taylor Fritz | 1686 | 100.00% | 70.63% | 36.75% | 11.61% | 4.90% | 2.29% | 0.48% |
| 88 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 89 | Alex De Minaur | 1630 | 100.00% | 54.01% | 11.48% | 5.01% | 1.75% | 0.69% | 0.11% |
| 90 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 91 | Ilya Ivashka | 1637 | 64.15% | 32.78% | 7.18% | 3.21% | 1.15% | 0.46% | 0.08% |
| 92 | Jan-Lennard Struff | 1536 | 35.85% | 13.21% | 1.87% | 0.59% | 0.14% | 0.04% | 0.00% |
| 93 | Mikhail Kukushkin | 1450 | 23.62% | 1.52% | 0.42% | 0.09% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 94 | Tommy Paul | 1654 | 76.38% | 13.87% | 7.61% | 3.57% | 1.36% | 0.58% | 0.11% |
| 95 | Alexander Zverev | 1916 | 100.00% | 84.61% | 71.44% | 56.68% | 40.88% | 30.91% | 14.42% |
| 96 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 97 | Andrey Rublev | 1808 | 100.00% | 82.88% | 62.61% | 45.18% | 31.03% | 15.39% | 5.15% |
| 98 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 99 | Dominik Koepfer | 1567 | 65.34% | 13.07% | 5.72% | 2.31% | 0.83% | 0.18% | 0.02% |
| 100 | Benoit Paire | 1457 | 34.66% | 4.06% | 1.19% | 0.32% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 101 | Adrian Mannarino | 1578 | 49.99% | 20.98% | 5.64% | 2.36% | 0.89% | 0.20% | 0.03% |
| 102 | Brandon Nakashima | 1578 | 50.01% | 20.99% | 5.65% | 2.36% | 0.89% | 0.20% | 0.03% |
| 103 | Frances Tiafoe | 1634 | 100.00% | 58.02% | 19.20% | 9.52% | 4.31% | 1.21% | 0.21% |
| 104 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 105 | Aslan Karatsev | 1622 | 100.00% | 65.83% | 29.72% | 10.63% | 4.63% | 1.24% | 0.20% |
| 106 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 107 | Steve Johnson | 1529 | 57.31% | 21.19% | 6.99% | 1.77% | 0.56% | 0.10% | 0.01% |
| 108 | Daniel Altmaier | 1478 | 42.69% | 12.98% | 3.50% | 0.72% | 0.18% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 109 | Richard Gasquet | 1589 | 61.38% | 21.34% | 10.81% | 3.44% | 1.34% | 0.31% | 0.04% |
| 110 | Oscar Otte | 1508 | 38.62% | 9.70% | 3.83% | 0.89% | 0.26% | 0.04% | 0.00% |
| 111 | Hubert Hurkacz | 1698 | 100.00% | 68.96% | 45.15% | 20.50% | 11.10% | 3.93% | 0.87% |
| 112 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 113 | Diego Schwartzman | 1721 | 100.00% | 71.45% | 42.91% | 26.57% | 13.49% | 5.16% | 1.26% |
| 114 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 115 | Philipp Kohlschreiber | 1535 | 43.42% | 11.08% | 3.90% | 1.42% | 0.39% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 116 | Emil Ruusuvuori | 1581 | 56.58% | 17.46% | 7.17% | 3.05% | 1.00% | 0.23% | 0.03% |
| 117 | Tallon Griekspoor | 1512 | 49.87% | 13.02% | 3.73% | 1.25% | 0.31% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 118 | Sam Querrey | 1512 | 50.13% | 13.14% | 3.78% | 1.27% | 0.32% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 119 | John Isner | 1692 | 100.00% | 73.84% | 38.50% | 22.36% | 10.50% | 3.65% | 0.79% |
| 120 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 121 | Alexander Bublik | 1600 | 100.00% | 45.47% | 21.36% | 8.40% | 2.94% | 0.72% | 0.11% |
| 122 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 123 | Andy Murray | 1679 | 76.95% | 47.13% | 27.35% | 13.72% | 6.21% | 2.06% | 0.42% |
| 124 | Taro Daniel | 1470 | 23.05% | 7.40% | 2.22% | 0.53% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 125 | Jordan Thompson | 1533 | 49.34% | 15.89% | 5.87% | 1.81% | 0.50% | 0.09% | 0.01% |
| 126 | David Goffin | 1537 | 50.66% | 16.61% | 6.24% | 1.96% | 0.55% | 0.10% | 0.01% |
| 127 | Grigor Dimitrov | 1662 | 100.00% | 67.50% | 36.95% | 17.66% | 7.59% | 2.37% | 0.45% |
| 128 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
