We're down to the last 16, so I'm going to update my Miami predictions, but firstly, after the jump, a look at how the early rounds went.
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- Of the 4 favourites for the title before the tournament, 3 of them are still in. Andrey Rublev lost in round 2 of the tournament.
- Stefanos Tsitsipas, the player with the easiest overall draw, is still in the tournament.
- Denis Kudla had the easiest 1st round draw, and won his match against Shang Juncheng before losing in round 3. Adrian Mannarino had the toughest 1st round draw, and lost as expected to Nick Kyrgios.
But what about the future? Let's take a look at what the rest of the tournament looks like.
- Daniil Medvedev is still the favourite to win the title with a 30.98% chance, Alexander Zverev is the 2nd favourite at 24.31%, Stefanos Tsitsipas is 3rd at 8.51%, and Casper Ruud 4th most likely with 6.27%.
- The easiest draw relative to his ranking has gone to Jannik Sinner. He is 1.16 percentage points more likely to win the tournament than his ranking suggests. This comes at the expense of Cameron Norrie, who has the toughest overall draw, as he's 1.16 percentage points less likely to win the tournament than expected.
- Jenson Brooksby has the toughest 4th round match, as he's 22.69 percentage points less likely to make it to the quarter finals than a player of his ranking would expect.
- The player with the easiest next match compared to their ranking is Frances Tiafoe. He's 31.42 percentage points more likely to make it to the next round than expected.
Now, the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # | Name | ELO | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniil Medvedev | 1936 | 81.39% | 65.94% | 47.54% | 30.98% |
| 2 | Jenson Brooksby | 1680 | 18.61% | 9.30% | 3.52% | 1.11% |
| 3 | Lloyd Harris | 1614 | 35.66% | 6.62% | 1.96% | 0.48% |
| 4 | Hubert Hurkacz | 1716 | 64.34% | 18.14% | 7.76% | 2.80% |
| 5 | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 1819 | 58.70% | 37.87% | 17.17% | 8.51% |
| 6 | Carlos Alcaraz | 1757 | 41.30% | 23.27% | 8.79% | 3.63% |
| 7 | Taylor Fritz | 1753 | 68.20% | 30.22% | 11.26% | 4.60% |
| 8 | Miomir Kecmanovic | 1621 | 31.80% | 8.64% | 1.99% | 0.50% |
| 9 | Nick Kyrgios | 1734 | 44.42% | 29.49% | 9.95% | 3.58% |
| 10 | Jannik Sinner | 1773 | 55.58% | 39.51% | 15.30% | 6.25% |
| 11 | Francisco Cerundolo | 1529 | 32.92% | 7.06% | 0.99% | 0.16% |
| 12 | Frances Tiafoe | 1653 | 67.08% | 23.94% | 5.87% | 1.57% |
| 13 | Casper Ruud | 1809 | 52.16% | 21.93% | 13.74% | 6.27% |
| 14 | Cameron Norrie | 1794 | 47.84% | 19.20% | 11.65% | 5.09% |
| 15 | Thanasi Kokkinakis | 1578 | 13.17% | 2.85% | 0.90% | 0.18% |
| 16 | Alexander Zverev | 1906 | 86.83% | 56.02% | 41.60% | 24.31% |
