The Indian Wells tournament is one of the biggest of the year outside of the Grand Slams, so I'm here with a preview and predictions for how the Women's bracket will turn out. After the jump, I present a table with percentages for all 96 players competing on how well they will do here.
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| Indian Wells logo, © BNP Paribas Open |
But before the full table, some highlights I want to pick out.
- Anett Kontaveit is the favourite to win the title, as she has a 13.59% chance of winning the tournament, Iga Swiatek is 2nd favourite with 10%, Karolina Pliskova 3rd with 7.46% and Simona Halep 4th with 7.43%.
- Overall, Karolina Pliskova has the easiest draw here, as she is 2.8 percentage points more likely to take the title than a player of her ranking would expect. On the other hand, Naomi Osaka has the toughest overall draw, as she is 3.86 percentage points less likely to win the tournament than what her ranking would suggest.
- Mayar Sherif has the easiest round 1 match relative to her ranking, as she's 25.37 percentage points more likely to make it to round 2 than expected. Aliaksandra Sasnovich has a tough 1st match, as she is 24.17 percentage points less likely to get to round 2 than expected.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # | Name | ELO | R1 % | R2 % | R3 % | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alize Cornet | 1604 | 100.00% | 64.85% | 33.07% | 10.53% | 4.38% | 1.37% | 0.38% |
| 2 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 3 | Harmony Tan | 1481 | 45.68% | 15.08% | 5.15% | 0.99% | 0.27% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 4 | Anna Kalinskaya | 1511 | 54.32% | 20.07% | 7.64% | 1.67% | 0.51% | 0.11% | 0.02% |
| 5 | Ajla Tomljanovic | 1576 | 61.72% | 26.42% | 13.53% | 3.87% | 1.47% | 0.41% | 0.10% |
| 6 | Hailey Baptiste | 1493 | 38.28% | 12.14% | 4.82% | 0.97% | 0.28% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 7 | Sorana Cirstea | 1626 | 100.00% | 61.45% | 35.79% | 12.36% | 5.50% | 1.86% | 0.56% |
| 8 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 9 | Simona Halep | 1795 | 100.00% | 76.26% | 49.62% | 37.84% | 25.05% | 14.19% | 7.43% |
| 10 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 11 | Ekaterina Alexandrova | 1628 | 67.65% | 18.73% | 8.07% | 4.48% | 2.01% | 0.68% | 0.21% |
| 12 | Elvina Kalieva | 1500 | 32.35% | 5.01% | 1.39% | 0.52% | 0.15% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 13 | Claire Liu | 1469 | 57.29% | 10.85% | 1.93% | 0.65% | 0.17% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 14 | Viktoriya Tomova | 1418 | 42.71% | 6.34% | 0.89% | 0.25% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 15 | Coco Gauff | 1722 | 100.00% | 82.82% | 38.09% | 25.88% | 14.78% | 6.88% | 2.91% |
| 16 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 17 | Emma Raducanu | 1553 | 100.00% | 45.69% | 22.53% | 7.08% | 2.16% | 0.55% | 0.12% |
| 18 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 19 | Dayana Yastremska | 1588 | 51.39% | 28.25% | 15.33% | 5.45% | 1.89% | 0.55% | 0.14% |
| 20 | Caroline Garcia | 1578 | 48.61% | 26.06% | 13.78% | 4.74% | 1.59% | 0.45% | 0.11% |
| 21 | Anna Bondar | 1487 | 42.21% | 15.46% | 5.95% | 1.45% | 0.34% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 22 | Petra Martic | 1542 | 57.79% | 25.53% | 11.77% | 3.55% | 1.04% | 0.25% | 0.05% |
| 23 | Tamara Zidansek | 1583 | 100.00% | 59.01% | 30.64% | 10.70% | 3.65% | 1.05% | 0.26% |
| 24 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 25 | Liudmila Samsonova | 1579 | 100.00% | 53.07% | 15.73% | 8.16% | 2.74% | 0.78% | 0.19% |
| 26 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 27 | Ann Li | 1592 | 63.30% | 32.82% | 10.21% | 5.49% | 1.93% | 0.57% | 0.15% |
| 28 | Madison Brengle | 1497 | 36.70% | 14.11% | 3.00% | 1.21% | 0.30% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 29 | Danka Kovinic | 1467 | 29.31% | 4.13% | 1.47% | 0.53% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 30 | Jil Teichmann | 1620 | 70.69% | 20.05% | 11.39% | 6.57% | 2.54% | 0.84% | 0.25% |
| 31 | Karolina Pliskova | 1781 | 100.00% | 75.81% | 58.21% | 45.07% | 27.09% | 14.82% | 7.46% |
| 32 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 33 | Iga Swiatek | 1822 | 100.00% | 85.69% | 64.06% | 43.44% | 27.78% | 17.84% | 10.00% |
| 34 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 35 | Clara Burel | 1496 | 46.25% | 6.16% | 1.95% | 0.50% | 0.11% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 36 | Anhelina Kalinina | 1523 | 53.75% | 8.14% | 2.85% | 0.81% | 0.20% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 37 | Beatriz Haddad Maia | 1546 | 33.28% | 12.86% | 2.88% | 0.90% | 0.25% | 0.07% | 0.02% |
| 38 | Sofia Kenin | 1667 | 66.72% | 37.23% | 13.06% | 6.14% | 2.63% | 1.15% | 0.40% |
| 39 | Clara Tauson | 1626 | 100.00% | 49.91% | 15.20% | 6.31% | 2.36% | 0.91% | 0.27% |
| 40 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 41 | Daria Kasatkina | 1709 | 100.00% | 80.75% | 44.54% | 19.74% | 9.59% | 4.73% | 1.91% |
| 42 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 43 | Katie Volynets | 1421 | 41.11% | 6.59% | 1.35% | 0.20% | 0.03% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 44 | Arantxa Rus | 1484 | 58.89% | 12.65% | 3.37% | 0.65% | 0.14% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 45 | Zheng Qinwen | 1518 | 50.49% | 12.18% | 3.81% | 0.85% | 0.21% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 46 | Vera Zvonareva | 1514 | 49.51% | 11.77% | 3.64% | 0.80% | 0.20% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 47 | Angelique Kerber | 1717 | 100.00% | 76.06% | 43.29% | 19.64% | 9.76% | 4.92% | 2.04% |
| 48 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 49 | Elina Svitolina | 1702 | 100.00% | 69.84% | 38.04% | 17.70% | 7.84% | 3.79% | 1.50% |
| 50 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 51 | Ana Konjuh | 1595 | 71.75% | 25.20% | 10.04% | 3.29% | 1.01% | 0.35% | 0.09% |
| 52 | Harriet Dart | 1433 | 28.25% | 4.97% | 1.05% | 0.18% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 53 | Robin Montgomery | 1485 | 33.61% | 7.25% | 1.97% | 0.42% | 0.08% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 54 | Kaia Kanepi | 1603 | 66.39% | 23.37% | 9.77% | 3.30% | 1.05% | 0.37% | 0.10% |
| 55 | Belinda Bencic | 1709 | 100.00% | 69.38% | 39.13% | 18.61% | 8.44% | 4.17% | 1.69% |
| 56 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 57 | Madison Keys | 1687 | 100.00% | 75.23% | 31.45% | 16.12% | 6.82% | 3.17% | 1.19% |
| 58 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 59 | Anastasia Potapova | 1521 | 60.52% | 16.84% | 3.84% | 1.13% | 0.26% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 60 | Misaki Doi | 1447 | 39.48% | 7.93% | 1.31% | 0.28% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 61 | Alison Riske | 1604 | 65.84% | 16.69% | 7.49% | 2.98% | 0.95% | 0.34% | 0.09% |
| 62 | Caty McNally | 1490 | 34.16% | 5.12% | 1.56% | 0.40% | 0.08% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 63 | Garbine Muguruza | 1792 | 100.00% | 78.19% | 54.35% | 35.59% | 20.13% | 12.16% | 6.31% |
| 64 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 65 | Paula Badosa | 1767 | 100.00% | 76.30% | 57.68% | 32.44% | 15.07% | 7.99% | 4.20% |
| 66 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 67 | Heather Watson | 1452 | 29.75% | 4.17% | 1.43% | 0.26% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 68 | Tereza Martincova | 1601 | 70.25% | 19.53% | 10.69% | 3.63% | 0.94% | 0.29% | 0.09% |
| 69 | Oceane Dodin | 1473 | 42.76% | 13.77% | 2.81% | 0.57% | 0.08% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 70 | Kaja Juvan | 1524 | 57.24% | 22.24% | 5.61% | 1.41% | 0.26% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 71 | Sara Sorribes Tormo | 1603 | 100.00% | 63.99% | 21.79% | 7.43% | 1.94% | 0.60% | 0.19% |
| 72 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 73 | Leylah Fernandez | 1658 | 100.00% | 51.54% | 20.07% | 9.21% | 2.98% | 1.13% | 0.43% |
| 74 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 75 | Amanda Anisimova | 1692 | 78.65% | 43.16% | 18.73% | 9.44% | 3.45% | 1.47% | 0.62% |
| 76 | Emma Navarro | 1465 | 21.35% | 5.30% | 0.97% | 0.23% | 0.03% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 77 | Nuria Parrizas Diaz | 1512 | 35.71% | 6.15% | 1.84% | 0.51% | 0.09% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 78 | Shelby Rogers | 1614 | 64.29% | 17.51% | 7.55% | 3.03% | 0.83% | 0.27% | 0.09% |
| 79 | Jelena Ostapenko | 1785 | 100.00% | 76.35% | 50.84% | 31.84% | 15.55% | 8.63% | 4.75% |
| 80 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 81 | Jessica Pegula | 1731 | 100.00% | 69.64% | 33.88% | 13.73% | 6.96% | 3.34% | 1.59% |
| 82 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 83 | Wang Qiang | 1612 | 59.17% | 19.82% | 6.52% | 1.74% | 0.61% | 0.20% | 0.06% |
| 84 | Marie Bouzkova | 1548 | 40.83% | 10.53% | 2.69% | 0.55% | 0.15% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 85 | Sloane Stephens | 1628 | 25.89% | 10.94% | 4.55% | 1.29% | 0.48% | 0.16% | 0.06% |
| 86 | Naomi Osaka | 1811 | 74.11% | 50.17% | 33.28% | 16.96% | 10.43% | 6.16% | 3.61% |
| 87 | Veronika Kudermetova | 1683 | 100.00% | 38.89% | 19.07% | 6.58% | 2.89% | 1.19% | 0.49% |
| 88 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 89 | Marketa Vondrousova | 1701 | 100.00% | 82.50% | 27.43% | 12.57% | 5.85% | 2.57% | 1.12% |
| 90 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 91 | Magdalena Frech | 1412 | 44.88% | 7.13% | 0.72% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 92 | Mayar Sherif | 1448 | 55.12% | 10.38% | 1.23% | 0.21% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 93 | Kristina Kucova | 1463 | 36.50% | 3.24% | 0.85% | 0.16% | 0.03% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 94 | Elena-Gabriela Ruse | 1559 | 63.50% | 9.20% | 3.41% | 0.95% | 0.27% | 0.07% | 0.02% |
| 95 | Anett Kontaveit | 1868 | 100.00% | 87.57% | 66.37% | 45.16% | 31.00% | 20.62% | 13.59% |
| 96 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 97 | Maria Sakkari | 1788 | 100.00% | 76.68% | 51.71% | 29.89% | 17.77% | 9.04% | 5.01% |
| 98 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 99 | Katerina Siniakova | 1579 | 49.34% | 11.39% | 4.41% | 1.34% | 0.43% | 0.11% | 0.03% |
| 100 | Irina-Camelia Begu | 1584 | 50.66% | 11.93% | 4.69% | 1.45% | 0.47% | 0.12% | 0.03% |
| 101 | Camila Osorio | 1590 | 45.52% | 16.24% | 4.95% | 1.56% | 0.52% | 0.13% | 0.04% |
| 102 | Aliaksandra Sasnovich | 1621 | 54.48% | 21.74% | 7.42% | 2.63% | 0.97% | 0.28% | 0.09% |
| 103 | Petra Kvitova | 1692 | 100.00% | 62.02% | 26.81% | 11.98% | 5.55% | 2.10% | 0.89% |
| 104 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 105 | Elise Mertens | 1710 | 100.00% | 73.76% | 33.59% | 16.24% | 7.92% | 3.19% | 1.43% |
| 106 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 107 | Marta Kostyuk | 1555 | 58.71% | 17.03% | 4.56% | 1.30% | 0.38% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 108 | Maryna Zanevska | 1493 | 41.29% | 9.22% | 1.93% | 0.43% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 109 | Daria Saville | 1533 | 47.54% | 8.93% | 2.92% | 0.76% | 0.20% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 110 | Zhang Shuai | 1551 | 52.46% | 10.67% | 3.71% | 1.04% | 0.30% | 0.06% | 0.02% |
| 111 | Ons Jabeur | 1788 | 100.00% | 80.40% | 53.28% | 31.39% | 18.64% | 9.47% | 5.24% |
| 112 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 113 | Victoria Azarenka | 1770 | 100.00% | 74.46% | 50.41% | 30.44% | 16.34% | 7.89% | 4.17% |
| 114 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 115 | Magda Linette | 1584 | 50.11% | 12.82% | 5.48% | 1.98% | 0.58% | 0.15% | 0.04% |
| 116 | Andrea Petkovic | 1583 | 49.89% | 12.72% | 5.42% | 1.96% | 0.57% | 0.14% | 0.04% |
| 117 | Alison Van Uytvanck | 1562 | 60.59% | 20.52% | 6.02% | 2.02% | 0.54% | 0.12% | 0.03% |
| 118 | Dalma Galfi | 1488 | 39.41% | 9.85% | 2.13% | 0.54% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 119 | Elena Rybakina | 1679 | 100.00% | 69.64% | 30.55% | 14.78% | 6.08% | 2.20% | 0.89% |
| 120 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 121 | Viktorija Golubic | 1549 | 100.00% | 44.51% | 12.60% | 3.77% | 0.96% | 0.21% | 0.05% |
| 122 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 123 | Ashlyn Krueger | 1483 | 29.65% | 12.02% | 2.60% | 0.60% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 124 | Yulia Putintseva | 1633 | 70.35% | 43.47% | 16.58% | 6.68% | 2.35% | 0.72% | 0.25% |
| 125 | Katie Boulter | 1508 | 43.51% | 7.99% | 3.23% | 0.82% | 0.18% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 126 | Jasmine Paolini | 1554 | 56.49% | 12.76% | 5.95% | 1.81% | 0.47% | 0.10% | 0.03% |
| 127 | Aryna Sabalenka | 1768 | 100.00% | 79.25% | 59.04% | 34.60% | 18.47% | 8.87% | 4.66% |
| 128 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
