The Miami tournament is one of the biggest of the year outside of the Grand Slams, so I'm here with a preview and predictions for how the Women's bracket will turn out. After the jump, I present a table for percentages for all 96 players competing and how they will do.
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But before the full table, some highlights I want to pick out.
- Iga Swiatek is the favourite to win the title, as she has a 15.46% chance of winning the tournament, Anett Kontaveit is 2nd favourite with 12.81%, Simona Halep 3rd with 8.56% and Maria Sakkari 4th with 7.54%
- Halep has the easiest overall draw, as she is 1.02 percentage points more likely to win the title than expected. Naomi Osaka has the toughest overall draw, as she is 1.04 percentage points less likely than expected to win the title.
- The toughest 1st round draw went to Shelby Rogers, as she's 43.63 percentage points less like to make it to round 2 than a player with her ELO rating would expect. Magdalena Frech has the easiest 1st round draw, she is 25.68 percentage points more likely to progress to round 2 than her ranking would suggest.
| # | Name | ELO | R1 % | R2 % | R3 % | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aryna Sabalenka | 1752 | 100.00% | 76.90% | 47.54% | 29.55% | 15.21% | 7.22% | 3.38% |
| 2 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 3 | Hailey Baptiste | 1485 | 37.50% | 6.63% | 1.76% | 0.48% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 4 | Irina-Camelia Begu | 1574 | 62.50% | 16.47% | 6.15% | 2.32% | 0.67% | 0.17% | 0.04% |
| 5 | Wang Xinyu | 1504 | 33.69% | 8.16% | 2.04% | 0.59% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 6 | Aliaksandra Sasnovich | 1622 | 66.31% | 25.60% | 9.88% | 4.37% | 1.50% | 0.46% | 0.14% |
| 7 | Daria Kasatkina | 1702 | 100.00% | 66.24% | 32.64% | 18.08% | 8.09% | 3.30% | 1.32% |
| 8 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 9 | Belinda Bencic | 1696 | 100.00% | 68.67% | 39.54% | 19.39% | 8.52% | 3.41% | 1.34% |
| 10 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 11 | Alison Van Uytvanck | 1563 | 50.94% | 16.16% | 6.44% | 2.03% | 0.56% | 0.14% | 0.03% |
| 12 | Marta Kostyuk | 1557 | 49.06% | 15.17% | 5.92% | 1.82% | 0.49% | 0.12% | 0.03% |
| 13 | Heather Watson | 1446 | 46.34% | 9.34% | 2.23% | 0.43% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 14 | Arantxa Rus | 1472 | 53.66% | 12.14% | 3.22% | 0.70% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 15 | Elina Svitolina | 1685 | 100.00% | 78.52% | 42.65% | 20.25% | 8.61% | 3.33% | 1.26% |
| 16 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 17 | Emma Raducanu | 1554 | 100.00% | 49.59% | 12.10% | 3.85% | 1.20% | 0.28% | 0.06% |
| 18 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 19 | Rebecca Marino | 1515 | 40.09% | 17.80% | 3.71% | 1.02% | 0.27% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 20 | Katerina Siniakova | 1585 | 59.91% | 32.60% | 8.97% | 3.19% | 1.11% | 0.30% | 0.08% |
| 21 | Greet Minnen | 1479 | 37.24% | 4.85% | 1.90% | 0.45% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 22 | Daria Saville | 1570 | 62.76% | 12.65% | 6.56% | 2.22% | 0.73% | 0.18% | 0.04% |
| 23 | Simona Halep | 1809 | 100.00% | 82.49% | 66.76% | 43.42% | 28.37% | 15.67% | 8.56% |
| 24 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 25 | Camila Giorgi | 1639 | 100.00% | 62.66% | 24.59% | 9.50% | 3.99% | 1.31% | 0.42% |
| 26 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 27 | Lucia Bronzetti | 1509 | 40.68% | 13.08% | 3.21% | 0.79% | 0.20% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 28 | Ajla Tomljanovic | 1574 | 59.32% | 24.25% | 7.64% | 2.39% | 0.80% | 0.20% | 0.05% |
| 29 | Robin Montgomery | 1478 | 43.27% | 7.01% | 2.29% | 0.49% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 30 | Anna Kalinskaya | 1525 | 56.73% | 11.47% | 4.45% | 1.16% | 0.32% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 31 | Karolina Pliskova | 1764 | 100.00% | 81.52% | 57.82% | 31.52% | 18.71% | 9.18% | 4.44% |
| 32 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 33 | Anett Kontaveit | 1855 | 100.00% | 85.07% | 68.97% | 46.09% | 31.92% | 21.04% | 12.81% |
| 34 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 35 | Ann Li | 1588 | 70.58% | 12.50% | 6.00% | 1.88% | 0.65% | 0.20% | 0.05% |
| 36 | Mayar Sherif | 1436 | 29.42% | 2.42% | 0.67% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 37 | Jil Teichmann | 1606 | 48.26% | 25.11% | 6.19% | 2.06% | 0.76% | 0.25% | 0.07% |
| 38 | Alison Riske | 1618 | 51.74% | 27.82% | 7.19% | 2.50% | 0.96% | 0.33% | 0.10% |
| 39 | Alize Cornet | 1591 | 100.00% | 47.07% | 10.97% | 3.47% | 1.21% | 0.37% | 0.10% |
| 40 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 41 | Leylah Fernandez | 1671 | 100.00% | 52.09% | 19.74% | 7.21% | 3.25% | 1.33% | 0.48% |
| 42 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 43 | Karolina Muchova | 1689 | 62.30% | 32.77% | 13.20% | 5.10% | 2.43% | 1.06% | 0.40% |
| 44 | Tereza Martincova | 1602 | 37.70% | 15.14% | 4.44% | 1.28% | 0.46% | 0.15% | 0.04% |
| 45 | Naomi Osaka | 1803 | 85.31% | 52.12% | 35.72% | 18.94% | 11.89% | 7.02% | 3.77% |
| 46 | Astra Sharma | 1497 | 14.69% | 3.13% | 0.86% | 0.16% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 47 | Angelique Kerber | 1724 | 100.00% | 44.76% | 26.04% | 11.20% | 5.86% | 2.83% | 1.22% |
| 48 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 49 | Danielle Collins | 1748 | 100.00% | 76.33% | 58.49% | 33.47% | 15.27% | 7.88% | 3.65% |
| 50 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 51 | Caroline Garcia | 1577 | 63.78% | 17.33% | 9.59% | 3.34% | 0.83% | 0.24% | 0.06% |
| 52 | Anna Bondar | 1479 | 36.22% | 6.33% | 2.63% | 0.63% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 53 | Misaki Doi | 1455 | 42.95% | 14.52% | 2.99% | 0.65% | 0.09% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 54 | Vera Zvonareva | 1504 | 57.05% | 23.06% | 5.84% | 1.54% | 0.28% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 55 | Tamara Zidansek | 1572 | 100.00% | 62.42% | 20.46% | 6.98% | 1.70% | 0.49% | 0.12% |
| 56 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 57 | Sara Sorribes Tormo | 1605 | 100.00% | 55.14% | 18.87% | 7.89% | 2.20% | 0.72% | 0.20% |
| 58 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 59 | Kaia Kanepi | 1608 | 67.04% | 33.85% | 11.72% | 4.96% | 1.40% | 0.46% | 0.13% |
| 60 | Maryna Zanevska | 1485 | 32.96% | 11.01% | 2.36% | 0.65% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 61 | Magda Linette | 1571 | 57.00% | 13.68% | 6.41% | 2.41% | 0.59% | 0.17% | 0.04% |
| 62 | Zheng Qinwen | 1522 | 43.00% | 8.27% | 3.31% | 1.05% | 0.21% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 63 | Ons Jabeur | 1772 | 100.00% | 78.05% | 57.32% | 36.44% | 17.76% | 9.74% | 4.82% |
| 64 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 65 | Paula Badosa | 1784 | 100.00% | 78.04% | 50.86% | 30.79% | 17.47% | 8.96% | 4.65% |
| 66 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 67 | Laura Siegemund | 1560 | 48.90% | 10.55% | 3.67% | 1.12% | 0.31% | 0.07% | 0.02% |
| 68 | Marie Bouzkova | 1568 | 51.10% | 11.41% | 4.08% | 1.29% | 0.37% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 69 | Yulia Putintseva | 1626 | 68.09% | 26.09% | 9.21% | 3.59% | 1.27% | 0.39% | 0.12% |
| 70 | Nastasja Schunk | 1494 | 31.91% | 7.19% | 1.52% | 0.36% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 71 | Marketa Vondrousova | 1709 | 100.00% | 66.71% | 30.66% | 15.39% | 7.14% | 2.93% | 1.22% |
| 72 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 73 | Elise Mertens | 1702 | 100.00% | 76.41% | 36.57% | 17.06% | 7.75% | 3.11% | 1.26% |
| 74 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 75 | Linda Fruhvirtova | 1504 | 51.96% | 12.61% | 2.97% | 0.67% | 0.15% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 76 | Danka Kovinic | 1491 | 48.04% | 10.98% | 2.44% | 0.52% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 77 | Ekaterina Alexandrova | 1629 | 58.80% | 18.76% | 8.69% | 3.21% | 1.15% | 0.36% | 0.11% |
| 78 | Jasmine Paolini | 1567 | 41.20% | 10.18% | 3.89% | 1.14% | 0.32% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 79 | Victoria Azarenka | 1761 | 100.00% | 71.06% | 45.44% | 24.87% | 13.31% | 6.39% | 3.11% |
| 80 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 81 | Jessica Pegula | 1717 | 100.00% | 68.26% | 39.86% | 18.19% | 8.74% | 3.68% | 1.57% |
| 82 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 83 | Panna Udvardy | 1468 | 29.09% | 5.62% | 1.46% | 0.26% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 84 | Sloane Stephens | 1623 | 70.91% | 26.12% | 11.86% | 3.99% | 1.41% | 0.43% | 0.13% |
| 85 | Elena-Gabriela Ruse | 1547 | 45.11% | 13.33% | 4.30% | 1.08% | 0.29% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 86 | Ana Konjuh | 1581 | 54.89% | 18.55% | 6.78% | 1.95% | 0.59% | 0.15% | 0.04% |
| 87 | Elena Rybakina | 1697 | 100.00% | 68.12% | 35.74% | 15.39% | 6.98% | 2.76% | 1.11% |
| 88 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 89 | Madison Keys | 1697 | 100.00% | 74.88% | 30.19% | 15.86% | 7.19% | 2.85% | 1.14% |
| 90 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 91 | Ekaterine Gorgodze | 1477 | 42.64% | 9.37% | 1.64% | 0.40% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 92 | Anhelina Kalinina | 1529 | 57.36% | 15.75% | 3.44% | 1.03% | 0.25% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 93 | Beatriz Haddad Maia | 1551 | 56.63% | 10.31% | 3.78% | 1.24% | 0.33% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 94 | Nuria Parrizas Diaz | 1505 | 43.37% | 6.32% | 1.96% | 0.53% | 0.12% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 95 | Maria Sakkari | 1812 | 100.00% | 83.38% | 59.00% | 40.06% | 24.53% | 13.51% | 7.54% |
| 96 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 97 | Garbine Muguruza | 1777 | 100.00% | 84.14% | 56.24% | 32.72% | 16.62% | 9.05% | 4.60% |
| 98 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 99 | Yuan Yue | 1480 | 48.05% | 7.36% | 2.12% | 0.45% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 100 | Lauren Davis | 1494 | 51.95% | 8.50% | 2.58% | 0.57% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 101 | Clara Burel | 1487 | 59.63% | 13.97% | 2.97% | 0.64% | 0.12% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 102 | Magdalena Frech | 1419 | 40.37% | 6.93% | 1.10% | 0.18% | 0.02% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 103 | Petra Kvitova | 1693 | 100.00% | 79.10% | 34.98% | 16.26% | 6.51% | 2.78% | 1.10% |
| 104 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 105 | Veronika Kudermetova | 1705 | 100.00% | 78.83% | 36.26% | 17.19% | 7.15% | 3.17% | 1.30% |
| 106 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 107 | Dalma Galfi | 1480 | 50.86% | 10.91% | 2.10% | 0.44% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 108 | Kristina Kucova | 1474 | 49.14% | 10.26% | 1.93% | 0.39% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 109 | Amanda Anisimova | 1685 | 58.32% | 22.13% | 11.81% | 5.28% | 2.06% | 0.86% | 0.33% |
| 110 | Shelby Rogers | 1627 | 41.68% | 12.67% | 5.77% | 2.14% | 0.69% | 0.23% | 0.07% |
| 111 | Jelena Ostapenko | 1771 | 100.00% | 65.20% | 42.13% | 23.73% | 11.86% | 6.35% | 3.18% |
| 112 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 113 | Coco Gauff | 1718 | 100.00% | 70.82% | 44.95% | 18.43% | 8.79% | 4.06% | 1.74% |
| 114 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 115 | Ashlyn Krueger | 1477 | 32.89% | 6.56% | 2.00% | 0.35% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 116 | Wang Qiang | 1601 | 67.11% | 22.62% | 10.64% | 2.98% | 0.95% | 0.29% | 0.08% |
| 117 | Zhang Shuai | 1540 | 37.40% | 13.65% | 4.36% | 0.97% | 0.25% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 118 | Clara Tauson | 1630 | 62.60% | 30.69% | 13.34% | 4.13% | 1.47% | 0.51% | 0.16% |
| 119 | Sorana Cirstea | 1636 | 100.00% | 55.66% | 24.71% | 7.83% | 2.86% | 1.01% | 0.33% |
| 120 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 121 | Liudmila Samsonova | 1586 | 100.00% | 62.99% | 13.95% | 5.53% | 1.68% | 0.49% | 0.13% |
| 122 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 123 | Alex Eala | 1498 | 51.13% | 19.19% | 2.93% | 0.84% | 0.18% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 124 | Madison Brengle | 1490 | 48.87% | 17.82% | 2.63% | 0.73% | 0.15% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 125 | Kirsten Flipkens | 1456 | 34.71% | 3.06% | 1.12% | 0.27% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 126 | Viktorija Golubic | 1566 | 65.29% | 10.03% | 5.21% | 1.92% | 0.54% | 0.14% | 0.04% |
| 127 | Iga Swiatek | 1862 | 100.00% | 86.91% | 74.17% | 56.03% | 37.66% | 24.76% | 15.46% |
| 128 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
