The Indian Wells tournament is one of the biggest of the year outside of the Grand Slams, so I'm here with a look at how the 2nd week of the Men's bracket will turn out. After the jump, I present a table with percentages for all 16 players remaining.
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| Indian Wells logo, © BNP Paribas Open |
But before the full table, some highlights I want to pick out.
- Of the 4 favourites for the title, 2 of them are still in. Daniil Medvedev lost in round 3 to Gael Monfils and Alexander Zverev lost in round 2 to Tommy Paul.
- The player with the easiest overall draw, Andrey Rublev, is still in. The player with the hardest overall draw, Stefanos Tsitsipas, is out; he lost in round 3 to Jenson Brooksby.
- Interestingly, the player with the easiest round 1 match, Henri Laaksonen, lost his match against Facundo Bagnis; and the player with the hardest round 1 match, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, won his match vs Borna Coric before losing in round 2 to Denis Shapovalov.
- Rafael Nadal is still the favourite to win the title, as he has a 52.29% chance of winning the tournament, Matteo Berrettini is 2nd favourite with 10.46%, Andrey Rublev 3rd with 9.47% and Cameron Norrie 4th with 6.42%.
- Overall, Taylor Fritz now has the easiest draw here, as he is 1.11 percentage points more likely to take the title than a player of his ranking would expect. On the other hand, Reilly Opelka now has the toughest overall draw, as he is 1.06 percentage points less likely to win the tournament than what his ranking would suggest.
- Alex De Minaur has the easiest round 4 match relative to his ranking, as he's 22.07 percentage points more likely to make it to the quarter finals than expected. Opelka also has a tough 4th round match, as he is 33.26 percentage points less likely to get to the next round than expected.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # | Name | ELO | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gael Monfils | 1726 | 50.14% | 23.32% | 5.29% | 2.41% |
| 2 | Carlos Alcaraz | 1725 | 49.86% | 23.12% | 5.23% | 2.38% |
| 3 | Cameron Norrie | 1792 | 67.92% | 40.42% | 11.72% | 6.42% |
| 4 | Jenson Brooksby | 1662 | 32.08% | 13.14% | 2.31% | 0.85% |
| 5 | Rafael Nadal | 2043 | 87.75% | 74.37% | 62.87% | 52.29% |
| 6 | Reilly Opelka | 1701 | 12.25% | 5.40% | 2.37% | 1.00% |
| 7 | Jannik Sinner | 1771 | 60.20% | 13.56% | 7.30% | 3.78% |
| 8 | Nick Kyrgios | 1699 | 39.80% | 6.67% | 2.91% | 1.22% |
| 9 | Matteo Berrettini | 1804 | 78.73% | 53.26% | 30.57% | 10.46% |
| 10 | Miomir Kecmanovic | 1577 | 21.27% | 7.70% | 2.11% | 0.30% |
| 11 | Taylor Fritz | 1696 | 56.66% | 23.57% | 9.98% | 2.33% |
| 12 | Alex De Minaur | 1649 | 43.34% | 15.47% | 5.59% | 1.08% |
| 13 | Andrey Rublev | 1818 | 65.12% | 43.63% | 26.52% | 9.47% |
| 14 | Hubert Hurkacz | 1709 | 34.88% | 18.18% | 8.37% | 2.06% |
| 15 | John Isner | 1709 | 54.49% | 21.84% | 10.04% | 2.46% |
| 16 | Grigor Dimitrov | 1677 | 45.51% | 16.36% | 6.83% | 1.48% |
