The Miami tournament is one of the biggest of the year outside of the Grand Slams, so I'm here with a preview and predictions for how the Men's bracket will turn out. After the jump, I present a table for percentages for all 96 players competing and how they will do.
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But before the full table, some highlights I want to pick out.
- Daniil Medvedev is the favourite to win the title, as he has a 26.4% chance of winning the tournament, Alexander Zverev is 2nd favourite with 16.32%, Stefanos Tsitsipas 3rd with 7.4% and Andrey Rublev 4th with 6.35%
- Tsitsipas has the easiest overall draw at the expense of Rublev who has the hardest overall draw. They are 1.05 percentage points more/less like to win than expected.
- The toughest 1st round draw went to Adrian Mannarino, as he's 23.9 percentage points less likely to make it to round 2 than a player with his ELO rating would expect. Denis Kudla has the easiest 1st round draw, he is 15.56 percentage points more likely to progress to round 2 than his ranking would suggest.
| # | Name | ELO | R1 % | R2 % | R3 % | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniil Medvedev | 1930 | 100.00% | 84.47% | 74.69% | 63.09% | 52.52% | 39.08% | 26.40% |
| 2 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 3 | Federico Delbonis | 1510 | 28.30% | 2.32% | 0.94% | 0.32% | 0.10% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 4 | Andy Murray | 1672 | 71.70% | 13.22% | 8.38% | 4.67% | 2.50% | 1.02% | 0.34% |
| 5 | Pedro Martinez | 1586 | 58.36% | 29.17% | 4.85% | 2.12% | 0.88% | 0.26% | 0.06% |
| 6 | Jan-Lennard Struff | 1527 | 41.64% | 17.33% | 2.21% | 0.79% | 0.27% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 7 | Christian Garin | 1586 | 100.00% | 53.51% | 8.91% | 3.89% | 1.62% | 0.49% | 0.12% |
| 8 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 9 | Nikoloz Basilashvili | 1604 | 100.00% | 48.88% | 22.96% | 5.18% | 2.29% | 0.74% | 0.19% |
| 10 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 11 | Jenson Brooksby | 1655 | 69.22% | 39.63% | 21.38% | 5.80% | 2.98% | 1.15% | 0.36% |
| 12 | Federico Coria | 1514 | 30.78% | 11.49% | 4.03% | 0.63% | 0.20% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 13 | Sebastian Baez | 1525 | 56.65% | 17.06% | 6.41% | 1.05% | 0.35% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 14 | Kamil Majchrzak | 1478 | 43.35% | 10.75% | 3.40% | 0.46% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 15 | Roberto Bautista Agut | 1671 | 100.00% | 72.18% | 41.82% | 11.99% | 6.41% | 2.61% | 0.87% |
| 16 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 17 | Denis Shapovalov | 1682 | 100.00% | 68.34% | 43.14% | 24.17% | 8.05% | 3.40% | 1.19% |
| 18 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 19 | Lloyd Harris | 1588 | 71.37% | 26.24% | 13.22% | 5.68% | 1.36% | 0.41% | 0.10% |
| 20 | Facundo Bagnis | 1430 | 28.63% | 5.42% | 1.61% | 0.38% | 0.05% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 21 | Emilio Gomez | 1443 | 43.03% | 10.96% | 2.68% | 0.67% | 0.09% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 22 | Yoshihito Nishioka | 1492 | 56.97% | 17.74% | 5.29% | 1.61% | 0.26% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 23 | Daniel Evans | 1629 | 100.00% | 71.30% | 34.05% | 16.56% | 4.61% | 1.63% | 0.46% |
| 24 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 25 | Aslan Karatsev | 1610 | 100.00% | 55.22% | 23.78% | 11.14% | 2.89% | 0.95% | 0.25% |
| 26 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 27 | Aljaz Bedene | 1553 | 44.81% | 18.79% | 6.69% | 2.62% | 0.55% | 0.14% | 0.03% |
| 28 | Ugo Humbert | 1589 | 55.19% | 25.99% | 10.48% | 4.61% | 1.11% | 0.34% | 0.08% |
| 29 | Laslo Djere | 1527 | 42.14% | 11.25% | 4.56% | 1.63% | 0.31% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 30 | Arthur Rinderknech | 1582 | 57.86% | 19.30% | 9.32% | 4.00% | 0.94% | 0.28% | 0.07% |
| 31 | Hubert Hurkacz | 1702 | 100.00% | 69.45% | 45.17% | 26.94% | 9.55% | 4.29% | 1.60% |
| 32 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 33 | Stefanos Tsitsipas | 1810 | 100.00% | 86.49% | 65.38% | 43.61% | 27.79% | 14.27% | 7.40% |
| 34 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 35 | Daniel Altmaier | 1470 | 45.44% | 5.61% | 1.73% | 0.40% | 0.08% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 36 | Jeffrey John Wolf | 1501 | 54.56% | 7.90% | 2.75% | 0.73% | 0.18% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 37 | Jo-Wilfried Tsonga | 1585 | 56.97% | 23.99% | 6.52% | 2.38% | 0.80% | 0.21% | 0.05% |
| 38 | Jordan Thompson | 1536 | 43.03% | 15.25% | 3.43% | 1.05% | 0.29% | 0.06% | 0.01% |
| 39 | Alex De Minaur | 1640 | 100.00% | 60.76% | 20.18% | 8.84% | 3.59% | 1.13% | 0.34% |
| 40 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 41 | Marin Cilic | 1677 | 100.00% | 70.69% | 33.14% | 13.83% | 6.31% | 2.24% | 0.77% |
| 42 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 43 | Lorenzo Musetti | 1544 | 56.87% | 18.06% | 5.37% | 1.41% | 0.40% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 44 | Alexei Popyrin | 1496 | 43.13% | 11.25% | 2.75% | 0.59% | 0.14% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 45 | Marton Fucsovics | 1582 | 47.41% | 13.41% | 5.75% | 1.74% | 0.57% | 0.15% | 0.03% |
| 46 | Marcos Giron | 1600 | 52.59% | 16.00% | 7.25% | 2.34% | 0.83% | 0.23% | 0.06% |
| 47 | Carlos Alcaraz | 1743 | 100.00% | 70.60% | 45.74% | 23.07% | 12.64% | 5.47% | 2.34% |
| 48 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 49 | Taylor Fritz | 1742 | 100.00% | 72.75% | 43.66% | 24.83% | 12.60% | 5.43% | 2.31% |
| 50 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 51 | Mikhail Kukushkin | 1445 | 27.95% | 4.29% | 0.94% | 0.20% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 52 | Botic van de Zandschulp | 1610 | 72.05% | 22.96% | 9.54% | 3.75% | 1.25% | 0.35% | 0.09% |
| 53 | Tommy Paul | 1664 | 70.02% | 32.09% | 14.42% | 6.69% | 2.69% | 0.92% | 0.30% |
| 54 | Benjamin Bonzi | 1517 | 29.98% | 7.98% | 2.13% | 0.60% | 0.14% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 55 | Karen Khachanov | 1693 | 100.00% | 59.93% | 29.31% | 14.74% | 6.51% | 2.43% | 0.88% |
| 56 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 57 | Albert Ramos Vinolas | 1563 | 100.00% | 42.09% | 12.46% | 3.99% | 1.12% | 0.26% | 0.06% |
| 58 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 59 | Sebastian Korda | 1644 | 58.85% | 36.20% | 14.31% | 6.10% | 2.30% | 0.73% | 0.22% |
| 60 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 1582 | 41.15% | 21.71% | 6.91% | 2.38% | 0.72% | 0.18% | 0.04% |
| 61 | Jack Sock | 1553 | 45.26% | 10.15% | 4.44% | 1.37% | 0.37% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 62 | Miomir Kecmanovic | 1586 | 54.74% | 14.18% | 6.87% | 2.40% | 0.73% | 0.19% | 0.05% |
| 63 | Felix Auger-Aliassime | 1768 | 100.00% | 75.67% | 55.01% | 32.96% | 17.92% | 8.29% | 3.82% |
| 64 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 65 | Andrey Rublev | 1817 | 100.00% | 70.00% | 57.50% | 37.41% | 23.66% | 12.29% | 6.35% |
| 66 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 67 | Nick Kyrgios | 1708 | 69.16% | 24.07% | 17.15% | 8.64% | 4.19% | 1.57% | 0.59% |
| 68 | Adrian Mannarino | 1568 | 30.84% | 5.93% | 3.13% | 1.00% | 0.30% | 0.07% | 0.02% |
| 69 | Jaume Munar | 1496 | 54.44% | 20.47% | 3.55% | 0.85% | 0.19% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 70 | Taro Daniel | 1465 | 45.56% | 15.28% | 2.29% | 0.48% | 0.10% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 71 | Fabio Fognini | 1584 | 100.00% | 64.25% | 16.38% | 5.55% | 1.79% | 0.42% | 0.10% |
| 72 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 73 | Pablo Carreno Busta | 1700 | 100.00% | 75.52% | 36.42% | 16.48% | 7.81% | 2.85% | 1.05% |
| 74 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 75 | Roberto Carballes Baena | 1469 | 41.74% | 8.74% | 1.83% | 0.36% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 76 | David Goffin | 1527 | 58.26% | 15.73% | 4.19% | 1.05% | 0.27% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 77 | Maxime Cressy | 1565 | 47.37% | 11.67% | 4.43% | 1.28% | 0.38% | 0.08% | 0.02% |
| 78 | Emil Ruusuvuori | 1583 | 52.63% | 14.03% | 5.66% | 1.75% | 0.56% | 0.13% | 0.03% |
| 79 | Jannik Sinner | 1759 | 100.00% | 74.30% | 47.47% | 25.13% | 13.93% | 6.14% | 2.71% |
| 80 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 81 | Reilly Opelka | 1698 | 100.00% | 76.29% | 40.98% | 19.45% | 8.51% | 3.09% | 1.13% |
| 82 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 83 | Tallon Griekspoor | 1502 | 51.91% | 12.65% | 3.63% | 0.87% | 0.18% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 84 | Francisco Cerundolo | 1488 | 48.09% | 11.06% | 3.02% | 0.69% | 0.14% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 85 | Oscar Otte | 1515 | 58.82% | 14.11% | 4.55% | 1.15% | 0.26% | 0.04% | 0.01% |
| 86 | Mitchell Krueger | 1453 | 41.18% | 7.45% | 1.89% | 0.37% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 87 | Gael Monfils | 1716 | 100.00% | 78.45% | 45.93% | 22.86% | 10.54% | 4.05% | 1.57% |
| 88 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 89 | Frances Tiafoe | 1638 | 100.00% | 59.12% | 21.20% | 9.31% | 3.34% | 0.97% | 0.29% |
| 90 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 91 | Kwon Soon-Woo | 1567 | 48.20% | 19.27% | 5.37% | 1.86% | 0.51% | 0.11% | 0.03% |
| 92 | Brandon Nakashima | 1580 | 51.80% | 21.61% | 6.31% | 2.29% | 0.66% | 0.15% | 0.04% |
| 93 | Juan Manuel Cerundolo | 1500 | 49.29% | 7.85% | 2.71% | 0.73% | 0.15% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 94 | Dusan Lajovic | 1504 | 50.71% | 8.28% | 2.91% | 0.80% | 0.17% | 0.03% | 0.00% |
| 95 | Matteo Berrettini | 1788 | 100.00% | 83.87% | 61.49% | 39.63% | 22.21% | 10.67% | 5.11% |
| 96 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 97 | Casper Ruud | 1802 | 100.00% | 87.25% | 68.15% | 40.60% | 20.71% | 11.88% | 5.89% |
| 98 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 99 | Henri Laaksonen | 1481 | 54.48% | 7.44% | 2.72% | 0.56% | 0.09% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 100 | Benoit Paire | 1450 | 45.52% | 5.31% | 1.73% | 0.31% | 0.04% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 101 | Daniel Elahi Galan | 1497 | 40.30% | 14.13% | 2.79% | 0.61% | 0.11% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 102 | John Millman | 1565 | 59.70% | 26.52% | 6.87% | 1.98% | 0.47% | 0.12% | 0.03% |
| 103 | Alexander Bublik | 1604 | 100.00% | 59.35% | 17.75% | 5.93% | 1.63% | 0.51% | 0.13% |
| 104 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 105 | John Isner | 1698 | 100.00% | 74.38% | 32.40% | 14.81% | 5.63% | 2.42% | 0.88% |
| 106 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 107 | Emilio Nava | 1476 | 41.40% | 9.03% | 1.76% | 0.37% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 108 | Hugo Gaston | 1536 | 58.60% | 16.59% | 4.13% | 1.10% | 0.23% | 0.05% | 0.01% |
| 109 | Gilles Simon | 1474 | 44.48% | 6.32% | 1.73% | 0.36% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 110 | Jack Draper | 1513 | 55.52% | 9.51% | 3.02% | 0.74% | 0.14% | 0.03% | 0.01% |
| 111 | Cameron Norrie | 1787 | 100.00% | 84.18% | 56.95% | 32.64% | 16.03% | 8.87% | 4.23% |
| 112 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 113 | Diego Schwartzman | 1716 | 100.00% | 70.77% | 50.42% | 18.49% | 8.26% | 3.77% | 1.46% |
| 114 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 115 | Thanasi Kokkinakis | 1546 | 45.62% | 12.44% | 6.07% | 1.18% | 0.28% | 0.07% | 0.01% |
| 116 | Richard Gasquet | 1576 | 54.38% | 16.79% | 8.91% | 1.96% | 0.54% | 0.15% | 0.03% |
| 117 | Shang Juncheng | 1481 | 53.66% | 18.32% | 4.71% | 0.69% | 0.13% | 0.02% | 0.00% |
| 118 | Denis Kudla | 1455 | 46.34% | 14.32% | 3.31% | 0.43% | 0.07% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 119 | Lorenzo Sonego | 1595 | 100.00% | 67.36% | 26.58% | 6.30% | 1.85% | 0.55% | 0.14% |
| 120 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 121 | Grigor Dimitrov | 1682 | 100.00% | 65.58% | 18.40% | 10.19% | 4.09% | 1.67% | 0.58% |
| 122 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| 123 | Mackenzie McDonald | 1570 | 50.03% | 17.23% | 3.07% | 1.24% | 0.33% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 124 | Dominik Koepfer | 1570 | 49.97% | 17.19% | 3.06% | 1.23% | 0.33% | 0.09% | 0.02% |
| 125 | Borna Coric | 1651 | 69.42% | 13.43% | 6.86% | 3.51% | 1.27% | 0.47% | 0.15% |
| 126 | Fernando Verdasco | 1509 | 30.58% | 2.92% | 0.93% | 0.30% | 0.06% | 0.01% | 0.00% |
| 127 | Alexander Zverev | 1899 | 100.00% | 83.65% | 67.68% | 54.49% | 37.58% | 26.28% | 16.32% |
| 128 | Bye | 0 | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
