We're down to the last 16, so I'm going to update my Miami predictions, but firstly, after the jump, a look at how the early rounds went.
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- Of the 4 favourites for the title before the tournament, only 1 of them is still in. Anett Kontaveit and Maria Sakkari lost in round 2, while Simona Halep withdrew from the tournament.
- Naomi Osaka, the player with the toughest overall draw, is still in the tournament.
- Magdalena Frech had the easiest 1st round draw, but she ended up losing her round 1 match to Clara Burel. Shelby Rogers had the toughest 1st round draw, but she won against Amanda Anisimova before losing in round 3.
But what about the future? Let's take a look at what the rest of the tournament looks like.
- Iga Swiatek is still the favourite to win the title with a 21.52% chance, Naomi Osaka is the 2nd favourite at 16.65%, Paula Badosa is 3rd at 14.92%, and Ons Jabeur 4th most likely with 9.3%.
- The easiest draw relative to her ranking has gone to Belinda Bencic. She is 2.43 percentage points more likely to win the tournament than her ranking suggests. This comes at the expense of Coco Gauff, who has the toughest overall draw, as she's 2.43 percentage points less likely to win the tournament than expected.
- Gauff also has the toughest 4th round match, as she's 22.48 percentage points less likely to make it to the quarter finals than a player of her ranking would expect.
- The player with the easiest next match compared to their ranking is Daria Saville. She's 26.94 percentage points more likely to make it to the next round than expected.
Now, the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # | Name | ELO | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aliaksandra Sasnovich | 1649 | 41.76% | 25.49% | 8.21% | 2.63% |
| 2 | Belinda Bencic | 1707 | 58.24% | 39.93% | 15.86% | 6.25% |
| 3 | Daria Saville | 1595 | 58.21% | 21.93% | 5.68% | 1.47% |
| 4 | Lucia Bronzetti | 1537 | 41.79% | 12.66% | 2.55% | 0.52% |
| 5 | Alison Riske | 1646 | 26.79% | 8.78% | 4.38% | 1.39% |
| 6 | Naomi Osaka | 1820 | 73.21% | 41.80% | 30.35% | 16.65% |
| 7 | Danielle Collins | 1756 | 46.24% | 21.96% | 14.25% | 6.56% |
| 8 | Ons Jabeur | 1783 | 53.76% | 27.45% | 18.72% | 9.30% |
| 9 | Paula Badosa | 1795 | 80.86% | 51.97% | 26.29% | 14.92% |
| 10 | Linda Fruhvirtova | 1545 | 19.14% | 5.98% | 1.22% | 0.30% |
| 11 | Jessica Pegula | 1734 | 72.87% | 34.76% | 14.68% | 7.11% |
| 12 | Anhelina Kalinina | 1562 | 27.13% | 7.28% | 1.61% | 0.43% |
| 13 | Petra Kvitova | 1703 | 47.80% | 16.06% | 7.13% | 3.15% |
| 14 | Veronika Kudermetova | 1718 | 52.20% | 18.54% | 8.62% | 3.99% |
| 15 | Coco Gauff | 1731 | 31.27% | 16.53% | 7.96% | 3.82% |
| 16 | Iga Swiatek | 1867 | 68.73% | 48.88% | 32.49% | 21.52% |
