The Indian Wells tournament is one of the biggest of the year outside of the Grand Slams, so I'm here with a look at how the 2nd week of the Women's bracket will turn out. After the jump, I present a table with percentages for all 16 players remaining.
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| Indian Wells logo, © BNP Paribas Open |
But before the full table, some highlights I want to pick out.
- Of the 4 favourites for the title, 2 of them are still in. Anett Kontaveit lost in round 3 to Marketa Vondrousova and Karolina Pliskova lost in round 2 to Danka Kovinic.
- The players with the easiest and hardest overall draws, Elina Svitolina and Ons Jabeur, are both out. Pliskova has the easiest overall draw before losing to Kovinic, while Naomi Osaka has the hardest overall draw and lost in round 2 to Veronika Kudermetova. Interestingly, the player with the easiest round 1 match, Mayar Sherif, lost her match against Magdalena Frech; and the player with the hardest round 1 match, Aliaksandra Sasnovich, won her match vs Camila Osorio before losing in round 2 to Petra Kvitova.
- Simona Halep is now the favourite to win the title, as she has a 18.84% chance of winning the tournament, Iga Swiatek is 2nd favourite with 18.26%, Maria Sakkari 3rd with 17.78% and Paula Badosa 4th with 11.11%.
- Overall, Elena Rybakina now has the easiest draw here, as she is 1.27 percentage points more likely to take the title than a player of her ranking would expect. On the other hand, Veronika Kudermetova now has the toughest overall draw, as she is 1.27 percentage points less likely to win the tournament than what her ranking would suggest.
- Madison Keys has the easiest round 4 match relative to her ranking, as she's 25.79 percentage points more likely to make it to the quarter finals than expected. Angelique Kerber has a tough 4th round match, as she is 27.9 percentage points less likely to get to the next round than expected.
Here's the full table. Want to be the 1st to hear of new updates? Follow @tennis_elo on Twitter.
| # | Name | ELO | R4 % | R5 % | R6 % | R7 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sorana Cirstea | 1642 | 27.70% | 16.09% | 5.50% | 1.98% |
| 2 | Simona Halep | 1809 | 72.30% | 56.63% | 31.99% | 18.84% |
| 3 | Petra Martic | 1571 | 46.33% | 11.94% | 3.11% | 0.85% |
| 4 | Liudmila Samsonova | 1597 | 53.67% | 15.33% | 4.42% | 1.35% |
| 5 | Iga Swiatek | 1830 | 63.82% | 46.22% | 29.57% | 18.26% |
| 6 | Angelique Kerber | 1731 | 36.18% | 21.86% | 11.20% | 5.40% |
| 7 | Harriet Dart | 1478 | 21.86% | 3.12% | 0.67% | 0.12% |
| 8 | Madison Keys | 1699 | 78.14% | 28.81% | 13.54% | 5.92% |
| 9 | Paula Badosa | 1779 | 64.08% | 38.16% | 21.41% | 11.11% |
| 10 | Leylah Fernandez | 1678 | 35.92% | 16.25% | 6.90% | 2.65% |
| 11 | Veronika Kudermetova | 1703 | 47.65% | 21.15% | 9.69% | 4.03% |
| 12 | Marketa Vondrousova | 1719 | 52.35% | 24.44% | 11.74% | 5.14% |
| 13 | Maria Sakkari | 1801 | 78.64% | 54.30% | 32.40% | 17.78% |
| 14 | Daria Saville | 1574 | 21.36% | 8.24% | 2.39% | 0.62% |
| 15 | Elena Rybakina | 1698 | 67.39% | 28.57% | 12.93% | 5.30% |
| 16 | Viktorija Golubic | 1572 | 32.61% | 8.89% | 2.55% | 0.66% |
